Today the NCAA made one of the more logical decisions they've made in some time. They have decided to hold the four first round play-in games at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
While this is a logical choice for many reasons, most of which I will get to momentarily, I would like to point out that the NCAA is developing a terrible habit of not taking any of my advice. I have all the answers to the conference expansion conundrum, yet they refuse to return my emails. I even petitioned to have William & Mary change their mascot from "the Tribe" to "the Honey Badgers" and they shot me down. (OK, I'm lying. But isn't that an awesome name?)
But I digress. The NCAA did get it right with this decision.
With second and third round games taking place in Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Tampa, Tulsa, Tuscon, and Washington D.C, the first round site should be as central as possible to all the sites, and Dayton, Ohio is smack-dab in the middle.
The UD Arena holds roughly 14,000 which is an ideal size for an opening round game. Last year, the official attendance for the play-in game featuring Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Winthrop was 8,205. In 2009, when Morehead State defeated Alabama State in the play-in game, the attendance was listed at nearly 11,000. As I've mentioned before, there is nothing worse than seeing a bunch of empty sections in the upper deck, so an arena with a 14,000-seat capacity is perfect for basically a meaningless tournament game.
Now, with four games instead of one, the attendance in 2011 is sure to increase. If the NCAA had decided to have four different sites host play-in games, there is no guarantee that attendance would improve. In fact, I would guess that the attendance might actually decrease if they did this, unless the NCAA decided to have the last at-large teams play in the opening round instead of the lowest-ranked teams. The last at-larges tend to be bigger schools with bigger followings, hence more fans attending and watching the games.
Dayton is no Gotham City, but it is suitable enough for a two-day tournament session. The University of Dayton had the highest average attendance of any Atlantic-10 team in 2010, with 12,260 fans showing up for each home game. Overall, UD was 28th in home attendance last year, which was higher than Georgetown, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Missouri and a bunch of other BCS-conference schools. In short, Dayton has basketball fans, and even if the Flyers aren't playing, there will certainly be enough fans to fill the UD Arena.
In the past, the play-in game had been held on ESPN, which is available on standard cable. The first four games in 2011 will be nationally televised in primetime on Turner Broadcasting’s truTV, as part of the NCAA’s 14-year broadcast agreement with Turner and CBS. Now, I don't watch a lot of television, but I consider myself pretty up-to-date on pop culture. But up until right now, I had never even heard of truTV. If I had to guess, it's probably located on the dial somewhere between the Home & Garden network and whatever channel airs Ninja Warrior.
My only other complaint with the NCAA on this subject is the naming of the play-in round. Instead of naming it the "First Four", the "Opening Round", or even the "Play-in Round", they have decided to call it the "First Round". Thus, the real first and second rounds will be known as the second and third rounds. How can you have a first round in which not all the teams participate?
But in general, the NCAA made the right choice. Now I just have to determine which way to point my rabbit-ear antennae in order to get truTV.
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Thursday, September 9, 2010
NCAA "First Four" to take place in Dayton |
Monday, June 28, 2010
On to the next ... college hoops talking point: play-in games |
With the expansion talk finally settling down (Dammit, Summit League, will you just make a decision on North Dakota already! You're killing me!), Tom Izzo firmly entrenched in East Lansing, and the NBA Draft over and done with, us college hoops writers essentially have one major storyline to follow that doesn't involve recruiting scandals.
The NCAA Tournament play-in games.
More specifically, who will be playing in these games?
According to an Andy Katz report today, the NCAA Tournament committee met today to discuss the format of the new 68 team tournament. And while no answer is expected until sometime in July, we did get a chance to see the three scenarios that are being tossed around.
Winthrop, from the (photo credit: CSMonitor)
The first is the obvious -- the 61st-68th teams, or the 16th and 17th seeds in each bracket, would play for the right to take on the No. 1 seeds. The second scenario involves two at-large teams playing for the 10th-13th seeds, respectively. The third scenario is a combination of both of those scenarios, and sounds much more complicated than anything that the NCAA would actually put into place. In all likelihood, those making the decisions will disregard the third scenario, just like I'm going to.
The arguments for, and against, each of these options are obvious and justified. Is it fair for low- and mid-major conference champions to be forced to participate in the "play-in" game simply because they come from a smaller league? Is it better to allow mediocre major conferences teams at the cut line of the at-large pool to avoid the play-in game? Does anyone care that the smaller conferences will get pigeon-holed into automatic play-in game bids?
Giving the smaller schools the chance to take down one of the big boys not only would be in the true spirit of the NCAA Tournament -- every David, in a single game, has a chance to pull off a miracle and beat the Giant (cliche alert!!!) -- but it would also provide a better viewing audience for the first round.
What would more people be inclined to watch: Winthrop vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, or Florida vs. Virginia Tech? Not only would the NCAA be appeasing the college basketball watching public by taking the side of the little guy, they would be doing it while maximizing the number of eyes on TV screens.
That said, the NCAA Tournament, while entertaining, is college basketball's national championship. The best in the nation are supposed to be playing for a title, and the better teams are supposed to be getting better draws. It shouldn't matter what conference you play in or how big your school is or whether or not you won your conference tournament. You're out of your mind if you argue that either Winthrop or Arkansas-Pine Bluff is a better team than anyone near the cut-line in this year's field.
Not to sound like Jay Bilas, but shouldn't these teams be thankful they are getting a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament as it is? Like I said, this is a championship tournament, and as such, shouldn't it consist of the 64 or 65 or 68 best teams? Not the 40-45 best teams, and a bunch of teams that no one has seen or heard before.
And, for the record, if we are ever going to see a No. 1 seed lose their first game, it will be with this format. The 17 seeds will, in general, be the teams that are not all that good, struggled through a weak conference, and then got hot during their league tournament. The 16 seeds will tend to be the teams that won the regular season and tournament championships, but just won't have the non-conference schedule to allow them to be seeded higher.
Like I said, both sides have valid arguments. It will be interesting to see how the NCAA handles it. Will they give in to the pressure of the bigger schools and allow them to avoid the play-in games? Or will they do what the majority of the college basketball fans and writers will want, which also allows them to stack more money?
Personally, I'd be pleasantly surprised if the NCAA forced at-large teams to play in the play-in games, but I have no clue what will happen.
The only thing I know is that regardless of the decision that is made, someone is going to be unhappy about it.
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Wednesday, April 7, 2010
2010 NCAA tournament look back: All-Tournament teams |
Over the course of this week, we will be reliving once of the best NCAA Tournament's of all-time, and possibly the final one with a 65 team format.
NCAA Tournament MOP: Kyle Singler, Duke
Singler continued a trend that started six weeks ago. It took Singler a while to adjust to playing on the perimeter, but he really picked up his game over the final 15 games of the season. With the exception of the Butler game in the Elite 8, Singler was the best player for the national champion Dukies throughout the tournament, averaging 18.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 2.7 apg. He capped the season with a 21 point, 9 rebound, 5 assist performance against West Virginia in the Final Four, followed by a 19 point and 9 rebound performance against Butler in which he hit too many big shots to count. It may have helped lead to a national title, but the news isn't all good for Duke. This tournament may have also helped lead to Singler going pro.
Singler was Duke's MVP in the tournament.(photo credit: ESPN)
First Team:
Jacob Pullen, Kansas State: Pullen helped carry the Wildcats into the Elite 8 with a couple of incredible performances. He averaged 22.8 ppg for the week, hitting just under 50% from three (17-36). But it was two performances in particular that stand out. Pulled scored 34 points in K-State's win over BYU, scoring 20 during a 41-21 first half surge by the Wildcats. Then Pullen scored 28 points, hitting innumerable big shots, as K-State held on to beat Jordan Crawford and the Xavier Musketeers.
Jordan Crawford, Xavier: Crawford was absolutely fantastic in his three games in this tournament. He had 28 points, including 17 in the second half and 11 straight as Xavier pulled away, to go with 6 boards and 5 assists in Xavier's opening round win over Minnesota. He put 27 points on Pitt in the second round before pouring in 32 points -- and a number of clutch buckets, including a 35 footer to force the second overtime -- before the Muskies lost to Kansas State in the second round of the tournament.
This shot forced the second OT in the tournament's best game.(photo credit: ESPN)
Durrell Summers, Michigan State: It looked like Michigan State's tournament would be done when Kalin Lucas went down with a torn achilles at the end of the first half in the Spartans second round game. But Summers began to live up to his potential, taking over in the second half against Maryland, and then averaging 20 ppg over the course of the last weekend to send Sparty to the Final Four. All told, Summers averaged 18.8 ppg on the season.
Gordon Hayward, Butler: Its a shame that the lasting memory of this tournament for Hayward is going to be two missed shots in the final five seconds of the title game, because Hayward was great during the tournament. 15.8 ppg and 7.0 rpg, numbers that are more impressive when you consider the pace, the style, and the amount of scoring of a Butler game.
Omar Samhan, St. Mary's: Samhan struggled in the Sweet 16 against Baylor's size and athleticism, but that should take nothing away from what the big fella was able to accomplish against Villanova and Richmond in the first two rounds. He averaged 30.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg while shooting 75% from the floor. He also made quite a few friends in the media with his candid interviews and brash demeanor.
Second Team
DJ Cooper, Ohio: Cooper was only around for two games, but the freshman sure did make a lot of high major schools regret not recruiting him. In the two games, Cooper averaged 19.5 ppg, 6.5 apg, and 4.5 rpg while hitting 8-16 from three. In the upset over Georgetown, Cooper had 23 points, 5 boards, 8 assists, and hit five threes.
Louis Dale, Cornell: For all the talk about Ryan Wittman and Jeff Foote, Dale was quietly Cornell's best player, as he averaged 21.3 ppg and 4.0 apg in Cornell's run to the Sweet 16. Dale scored had 21 and 26 points, respectively, in upset wins over Temple and Wisconsin.
LaceDarius Dunn, Baylor: Dunn struggled at the beginning of the tournament, scoring just 13 points -- most of which came very late -- against Sam Houston State. But he took over after that, scoring 26, 23, and 22 over the next three games before the Bears were knocked out in the Elite 8.
JaJuan Johnson, Purdue: Johnson stepped up his game without Robbie Hummel available, averaging 19.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, and 3.3 bpg as the Boilermakers made a semi-surprising run to the Sweet 16.
Brian Zoubek, Duke: Brian Zoubek didn't put up great numbers in this tournament, averaging just 7.4 ppg and 10.0 rpg, including 4.5 offensive. But his presence was so much more than the stats he put up. It was defensively, it was the attention he was paid crashing the offensive glass, it was the screens he set. Zoubek probably earned himself an NBA paycheck in March.
Honorable Mention:
Jon Scheyer/Nolan Smith, Duke: Scheyer and Smith were both fantastic for the Blue Devils in the run to the title. Scheyer averaged 16.0 ppg, 4.0 apg, and 3.5 rpg while turning the ball over just 7 times. Smith averaged 17.7 ppg and 3.7 apg.
Shelvin Mack/Ronald Nored, Butler: Mack averaged 15.3 ppg while providing steady ball-handling and hitting numerous big shots for the Bulldogs in their run to the title game. Nored didn't score, but he was the guy responsible for guarding the opponent's best perimeter player, and did a fantastic job.
Ali Farokhmanesh, Northern Iowa: The UNI-Bomber didn't score all that much -- averaging just 14.0 ppg in three games -- but he hit game-winners against both UNLV and Kansas.
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Tuesday, April 6, 2010
One Shining Moment sucked |
That is the only way to put it.
I'm not talking Hudson's performance itself, although that has been ripped to the point that CBS actually put out a press release addressing it. I didn't think she did all that bad.
No, what I hated what the editing job done by, well, whoever puts it together.
According to Deadspin, only once in the previous 23 One Shining Moments was any screen time given to the singer, eight seconds to Luther Vandross in 2003. Hudson got 12 seconds, which in and of itself wouldn't be a problem.
But what about the snubs?
Where is Ohio's win over Georgetown? Where is the game-winner from Quincy Pondexter? Where is anything -- seriously, anything -- from the best game of the tournament, the two overtime thriller between Xavier and Kansas State? Jordan Crawford's 35 footer to force the second overtime was the best shot, and the best call, of the entire tournament.
And what happened to "the ball is tipped" line? Give me a close up shot of a jump ball, not a close up of Hudson flicking her fingers.
Was a seventh place finisher on American Idol really worthy of that much TV time? This is One Shining Moment, not a remake of Dreamgirls. The Final Four isn't the Grammy's. Give me some basketball highlights.
Anyway, here is the video, watch at your own risk.
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Kyle Singler gets flattened |
I'm not a particularly huge football fan. I use to like the 49ers a lot back in the days of Steve Young and Jerry Rice, but as their performance has fallen off, my interest level has waned. I never really had a college football team, seeing as UConn just got good a few years ago.
I can enjoy a football game with the best of them, especially when it involves some combination of grilling meat and drinking beer. Still, I'll be honest. The main reason I'll watch a football game is for the big hits. A wide out getting beheaded by a safety. A defensive end burying a quarterback. A running back leveling a linebacker trying to fill a hole.
But the best -- the absolute best -- hits during a football game come on returns. A would-be tackler blindly trying to run down the ballcarrier before getting decleated by vicious block that resembles resembles playing chicken with a Mack truck.
Well, we had one of those last night.
Brian Zoubek missed the second of two free throws and Gordon Hayward had corralled the rebound and taken off up court. Kyle Singler was giving chase when Matt Howard decided to get in the way.
"I was just standing in the way, so I figured I would be useful," Butler forward Matt Howard said.
Just watch it:
Laid out.
Also amusing is the reaction of the manager at the very right of the Butler bench after Hayward's shot bounced off the rim. I don't mean to poke fun at a kid that is clearly devastated, but he looks like he got picked off by a sniper.
Anyway, here's a great picture of the screen (via @joesportsfan).
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Butler barely misses a Hollywood finish |
The world is not a good place.
If it was, Gordon Hayward's 45 foot prayer would have hit the backboard just one inch lower, banking in instead of bouncing harmlessly off the rim. Butler not only would have won the national title in their home city, they not only would have beaten Duke to win that national title, they would have done it on arguably the single greatest play in college basketball history.
Hell, it would have ranked among the greatest plays in the history of sports, period. Butler's win would have gone down as one of the greatest upsets in the history of sports. Sure, how great this Duke team really was would have been overstated, and there's no doubt that the talent gap between the two teams would have increased with each successive telling of the story.
It would have been to perfect movie ending. Think about it. It seems like every sports movie has the absurdly perfect, hero-makes-an-inhumanly-awesome-play finish that seems just a bit too far-fetched to be believable. This would have been that ending.
Butler, the ever-likable underdog with the baby-faced coach, hangs tough with the big, bad Duke Blue Devils. As Duke looks like they are starting to pull away late, Matt Howard, the loveable-but-struggling star, scores the two biggest baskets off his life, ending an 11 minute stretch without a field goal. After getting a stop, Gordon Hayward, the best player and future NBA two guard, misses a tough jumper. A questionable coaching decision by Coach K, the coach of the villains everyone loves to hate, to miss the second free throw leaves the door open, and Hayward redeems himself by drilling a 45 foot prayer off the glass, giving the Bulldogs the win in a storybook finish.
If you were a screenwriter, isn't that how the script for Hoosiers 2 would go?
But that isn't what happened. There would be no Hollywood ending in Indianapolis.
Instead, the evil empire won their fourth title in the last two decades. And while it was a disappointing end to a fantastic tournament, I am finding it very difficult to hate to justify any hatred of this Duke team.
Nolan Smith lost his father when he was eight years old, and in winning a title this year, he duplicated a feat his father pulled off exactly 30 years ago in the very same city.
Brian Zoubek is the big, white stiff that is about as coordinated as an erector set and throws a cheap shot or three every game, but he is also a kid that had very high expectations, battling through injuries and a lack of playing time for three and a half seasons before likely playing his way into an NBA paycheck these last six weeks.
Kyle Singler is the opaque-skinned all-american forward who resembles the scream mask, but the determination he played with last night -- knocking down big shot after big shot and forcing Gordon Hayward into a miss on Butler's second to last possession -- left me quite impressed.
Jon Scheyer is the heir to the throne of Duke's hated white guard, but he isn't cocky like JJ, or slapping the floor like Wojo, or flopping every three seconds like Paulus. In fact, Scheyer was the only Duke player to go and shake the hands of the Butler kids after the game.
Go ahead and be disappointed about Butler's loss. In fact, I encourage it. Let that feeling sink in, and then go out and protest the insanity of expanding the tournament to 96 teams.
Hate the world for taking away what could have been the greatest story in the history of sports.
Hate the NCAA for ruining the best sporting event there is after this season.
But don't hate these Blue Devils.
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Monday, April 5, 2010
Butler needs two role players to step up |
It goes without saying that Duke is the favorite tonight. They are a good basketball team with a couple of talented kids playing their best basketball of the season. They have size, they can shoot, they have a talented back court, they defend, they rebound the ball. While they certainly aren't one of the great Duke teams and while they will probably not be mentioned among the greatest title teams of all-time should they win, it doesn't make a win tonight any less impressive.
As the favorite, its tough to define a key to the game tonight for Duke other than not allowing Butler's style of play to take control. If Duke plays their A game, Butler doesn't stand a chance.
So how does Butler prevent Duke from playing their A game? We've touched on that, but it really comes down to two unsung role players:
Ronald Nored: Butler relies heavily on their defensive ability, and Nored is arguably the best of the group. A 6'0", 174 lb point guard, Nored averages just 6.0 ppg, but his value is quantified by the numbers of Butler's opponent. Nored is the guy that draws the assignment of an opponent's best perimeter player, and he has done an admirable job shutting down all comers. In this tournament alone, Nored has been the reason that talents like Randy Culpepper, Andy Rautins, Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente, and Durrell Summers were slowed. Tonight he will be matched up with Jon Scheyer or Nolan Smith (our money is on Smith). Keeping those two from getting into a rhythm is vital to Butler's hopes.
It will be huge for Butler if Nored can slow down whoever he is matched up with tonight.
(photo credit: MSNBC)
Andrew Smith: Matt Howard largely has been a non-factor in the tournament, as his averages have dipped to 7.0 ppg and 4.0 rpg. Whether its foul trouble, injury issues, or matchup problems, last year's Horizon player of the year has been relegated to role-playing duty these last five games. Given Duke's size and ability on the glass, Butler is going to need all the front court players they can run out there. It is also a fairly safe assumption that Howard will be in foul trouble at some point in this game. He's played just 15 minutes in the tournament and has seen action in only 23 games this season, but Smith played a key 12 minutes in Butler's win over Kansas State, a team very similar to Duke. Expect the 6'11" freshman to see some minutes tonight, and Butler will need a similar effort to the one he provided against the Wildcats.
There is one other issue that will come to light. Butler basically has two scorers on their roster -- Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack. No one other than those two has reached double figures in the last two games. These two are good for 15-20 points on a given night, which is fine when a game is played in the 50's. But Duke is a very good offensive team, and I would expect this one to be played in the high 60's or low 70's. At that rate, Hayward and Mack may not be enough to carry the Bulldogs.
So who is steps up as the third scorer?
Willie Veasley had 13 against Syracuse. Nored went for 15 and 6 assists against Murray State. Howard had 11 in the win over UTEP. Butler will need to find points outside of Hayward and Mack tonight if they want to have a shot at winning.
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Butler is an underdog, but not exactly a David |
Can we stop with all this David vs. Goliath talk?
Its too easy. Its like comparing Butler to the Hoosiers movie, or making Kentucky-Cornell out to be a battle between good and evil.
Depending on what you have read this morning, you are guaranteed to have seen someone compare Butler to Villanova's 1985 title team or NC State's 1983 title team. You have probably seen someone write that a Butler national title would be a momentous upset, that the Bulldogs have a chance to be the little guy that takes down the evil empire.
Is this a national title team?(photo credit: Getty Images)
Duke has six McDonald's all-americans. 10 of the players on Butler's roster are native Hoosiers.
Duke spent almost $400,000 per player this year, while Butler's entire program had a budget of less than $350,000.
Duke is playing for their fourth national title under Coack K, while Butler hails from the Horizon League.
Like I said, its too easy.
Embrace the cliche!
Butler may be a mid-major program, but calling them a David is an insult to what this team has accomplished this season. The Bulldogs have a better record than Duke, and did so playing a tougher non-conference schedule. While Butler did lose to Minnesota and UAB earlier this season, they also beat Ohio State and Xavier, have won 25 straight games, and knocked off Syracuse, Kansas State, and Michigan State to reach the finals.
Butler was a top 15 team in the preseason, and a top 15 team at the end of the year. This is a very, very good basketball team, and even those of us who doubted them during the year (me!) have been forced to eat our words.
On top of that, this Duke team is far from great. This isn't one of Coach K's top five teams. They were embarrassed by Georgetown and NC State during the year. Many believed that this was by far the weakest #1 seed heading into the tournament.
Hell, Butler isn't even that big of an underdog. Depending on where you look, Duke is favored by 6.5 points of 7 points. Georgetown was a 9 points favorite in 1985. Houston was favored by 8 points over NC State in 1983. Even Michigan State was a bigger dog last season to North Carolina than Butler is this year.
I'm not denying the fact that Butler is an underdog. I'm not saying that it isn't a great story that they have made it this far. I'll even go as far as to say that this played out like a story book. Seriously, if you were going to make a movie based on this Butler team, who would you pick to be the team that they played in the final? Duke, right?
But no matter how this plays out, remember that Butler deserves to be here. This isn't George Mason's run to the Final Four. This isn't a middle of the pack major conference team.
Butler is a very good basketball team.
They just happen to hail from the Horizon League.
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Title Game Preview: Duke vs. Butler |
There is not doubt that Duke is the favorite tonight.
6.5 points to be exact. They could be giving ten points, and they would still seem like a safe bet based on how they played against West Virginia.
That is how good the Blue Devils looked Saturday night. I've seen Duke play a good 12-15 times this season, and never were they as impressive. Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, and Jon Scheyer absolutely dominated West Virginia's perimeter defenders, combining to go for 63 points on 22-45 shooting, 12-23 on threes, and 17 assists to just three turnovers. The Blue Devils crashed the offensive glass, with Brian Zoubek leading the charge as they got open look after open look off of offensive rebounds. They turned the ball over just five times as a team.
If you want an idea of how good Duke was Saturday night, think about this. They were the most efficient offensive team in the country this season, and Saturday was their second best performance offensively on the year. The best? When they scored 114 points against Penn back in December.
Think about that.
Butler is going to have their work cut out for them. The Bulldogs will be at a tremendous size disadvantage. With Matt Howard on the floor (which isn't a certainty, as he may have a concussion, but I expect him to play), their front line consists of the 6'8" Howard, 6'3" Willie Veasley, and the 6'9" Gordon Hayward, who is a natural two guard. 6'8" Avery Jukes and 6'11" Andrew Smith come off the bench.
Duke, on the other hand, is as big as they have been in a long time. Brian Zoubek, who is finally embracing his 7'0" frame, and Lance Thomas, a workhorse a 6'8", start, while the 6'10" Plumlees come in off the bench. Those four go to the glass hard. Butler has been able to handle a couple of very good rebounding teams the last two games -- Michigan State and Kansas State -- but Duke is bigger than either of those them.
This has been said a thousand times already this week, but Brian Zoubek is the key to this team. He really attacks the offensive glass, he defends, he sets a lot of screens (and trust me, you don't want to be on the receiving end of one of those if it isn't called out), and he is good for a couple of buckets a game. A key for Butler may be to try and get Zoubek in foul trouble. And while the guy is a hack, he generally picks up his fouls trying to draw charges, reaching, or going over the back. In other words, he generally sets himself up for the fouls he picks up. So box him out and attack the rim when he is in the game, and see what happens.
The Bulldogs are also going to have to slow down the three-headed monster of Smith, Scheyer, and Singler. Again, Butler has the tools and the track record to make you believe that they can slow down talented perimeter players, but they have yet to face a team with three weapons as potent as Duke's back court. Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente are as good, if not better, than Smith and Scheyer, but did Kansas State have anyone close to as talented as Kyle Singler is? As much as I like Andy Rautins, Wes Johnson, and the two Syracuse point guards, they are not as good as Duke's perimeter.
The matchups are going to be interesting, and to be honest I think Butler matches up fairly well with Duke's starters. Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored will be on Scheyer and Smith (I expect Nored to be on Smith, as Smith generally plays off the ball more). Veasley will be at a size disadvantage against Kyle Singler, but he is a tough, scrappy defender. So long as Hayward boxes out, he shouldn't have a problem guarding Thomas, and Howard would be on Zoubek.
If Butler is going to win, there are three things that they absolutely have to do:
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Sunday, April 4, 2010
Matt Howard a game-time decision for the final |
Matt Howard is the best big man that Butler has, and is probably their only threat to get a bucket in the paint. His presence -- not just as a scorer but as a rebounder -- is going to be vital to Butler's chances against Duke.
The problem is, Howard may not play.
The big man hit the floor hard at the end of the first half last night, banging his head on the floor and possibly giving himself a concussion. He is currently a "game-day decision".
"We're just keeping him under observation today," Stevens said Sunday. "Probably won't practice today. Will be a day-of-game decision, it sounds like. ... We're hoping he's okay. He did have a good night's sleep. He's feeling a little bit better. One thing is, his health is numero uno. If he can't play, he can't play."
Howard played just 17 minutes last night, finishing with four points and two boards on 1-7 shooting from the field.
When asked if he suffered a concussion, Stevens said "I don't want to say. It's obviously enough that he's not going to practice."
Losing Howard would mean that Butler would have to rely even more on back up big men Avery Jukes and Andrew Smith. The pair has averaged just 3.2 ppg in the tournament, but have both shown flashes of being capable big men.
Butler was able to go small last night, playing three guards along side Willie Veasley and Gordon Hayward, but they won't be able to do that against Duke. As much of an advantage as they would have on the offensive end, I just don't see them being able to get a defensive rebound with that kind of size disadvantage.
In other words, Smith and Jukes will get a lot of minutes if Howard's a no-go.
We will post a video of the injury if we can find one later today.
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Butler's defense does it again |
That was Butler basketball last night.
Flash isn't something this team has. Style isn't in their vocabulary. Just ask Matt Howard's upper lip.
Butler gets it done by playing defense, by clearing the defensive glass, and by scoring just enough points to win. Look at last night. They forced Michigan State into 16 turnovers, gave up just six offensive rebounds, and, for the most part, held Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan in check.
No, I don't believe Hayward should have been called for a foul on the final possession last night.(photo credit: MLive)
What they didn't do was score.
At the 12:19 mark of the second half, Willie Veasley knocked the ball out of Korie Lucious' hands, going the other direction for a wide open dunk that gave the Bulldogs their biggest lead at 44-37.
They wouldn't make another shot from the field for more than 11 minutes.
During that stretch, Butler would miss 11 consecutive shots, five of which came within a foot of the rim. They would turn the ball over three times. They would only muster four points, hitting 4-7 free throws in that stretch.
And what did Michigan State do?
Well, nothing.
Never has a seven point lead felt larger than it did last night. Butler finally broke that field goal streak with 100 ticks left on the clock when Shawn Vanzant grabbed an offensive rebound and found a cutting Gordon Hayward as he fell out of bounds. Hayward finished a tough layup in traffic, pushing Butler's lead to 50-46.
You read that right.
As Butler managed just four points in an eleven minute stretch in the Final Four, Michigan State could only manage to cut a seven point lead to two.
Making it all the more impressive, Matt Howard took a shot to the head last night. He didn't play down the stretch, and may have gotten a concussion. That means that Butler, a small team to begin with, played the end of this game with a front line of Gordon Hayward, who may be 6'9" but is really a shooting guard, and Willie Veasley, who is a 6'3" power forward.
The final possession summed up this Bulldog effort. After Hayward's layup pushed the lead to four, Sparty hit three free throws to cut the lead to one. Ronald Nored -- who was fantastic chasing Durrell Summers off of screen after screen -- missed a jumper, giving Michigan State possession with a chance to win the game.
The play Tom Izzo drew was to try and get Summers coming off of a screen. When that wasn't open -- thanks to Nored -- Summers put the ball inside to Draymond Green, who was Michigan State's best option late in the game. Green backed down Hayward, who held his ground and forced Green into a tough turnaround over his out stretched arms.
Green airballed, Nored got the rebound and hit both free throws. Butler never let Michigan State get off a three to tie the game.
As unlikely as it seemed three weeks ago when the brackets were announced, Butler advanced to the national title game.
Let me repeat that: Butler, from the Horizon League, will be playing Duke tomorrow night for a chance to win a national title.
They may not be the prettiest team in the country, but these Bulldogs sure do have a lot of fight in them.
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Duke dominates West Virginia |
No one was beating Duke last night.
No one.
I've probably seen the Blue Devils play 12-15 times this season, and never did they look as good as they did last night.
They dominated a very good team on the glass, especially on the offensive end. They shot 13-25 from three. They turned the ball over just five times. Their big three of Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler combined to outscore West Virginia 63-57.
Duke is headed to the title game.(photo credit: STL Today)
West Virginia never had a chance.
The ironic part of all of this is how much hate Duke has received during this post-season. They had a gift of a bracket. They shouldn't have received the fourth #1 seed (most believed that West Virginia should have gotten it; I wonder if they still feel that way). They were overrated, winning what was an overly mediocre ACC. Yet, here they are, playing for the national title.
I don't think I'm the only one that will say this, but as good as the Devils looked last night, this isn't one of their great teams. They don't have JJ Redick and Shelden Williams. Jay Williams and Shane Battier are not suiting up. Hell, they may not have one guy on this team that becomes a successful NBA player.
Smith, Scheyer, and Singler are all very good college players. Singler was an all-american last year. Scheyer was this year. I'd bet dollars to donuts that Smith will be next season. But do you see any of them playing significant NBA minutes?
I don't.
But Duke is on a mission right now, and those three are leading the way.
Smith, Scheyer, and Singler (which sounds more like a law firm than a starting back court) combined for 63 points last night. They shot 22-45 from the floor, 12-23 from three. They handed out 17 assists and committed just three turnovers, all three of which came from Singler. Scheyer and Smith each had six assists without turning the ball over.
That was against West Virginia, a team that came into the night a top ten defensive team in the country. Duke scored 78 points on 54 possessions. That's ridiculous. From an efficiency standpoint, it was their second best performance of the season. The only one that was better?
When they lit up Penn for 114 points.
Did I mention that Duke was the most efficient offensive team in the country this season?
I like Butler's matchup with the Dukies. They are good on the defensive glass, they have a couple of very good perimeter defenders, and they don't mind turning a basketball game into a fistfight.
But if Duke played like they did last night, Butler doesn't have a shot.
No one would.
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Huggy Bear isn't as bad as you think |
Seeing posts like this bothers me.
Last night, with eight minutes to go and down 15 to a Duke team that was playing as well as they had all season long, Da'Sean Butler's left knee bent awkwardly as he planted his foot.
Season, and career, over.
So while Butler -- who is an emotional guy to begin with -- was writhing in pain on the ground, Huggs came over, gave him a hug, and calmed him down. Its a shame, but does anyone else feel like this is going to be the lasting image we have of this Final Four?
Here's the video:
I've never really been an anti-Huggins guy. From what I've seen of him, especially at West Virginia, he seems like a guy that genuinely cares about his players. At his press conferences, he comes off as a fatherly figure, Papa Bear watching over his cubs.
As for Da'Sean Butler, its a shame his career ended like this. He wasn't just good, he was a great player for the Mountaineers. I've always considered myself a fan first, and Butler will be a guy I certainly miss watching.
UPDATE: The severity of Butler's knee injury is now known. He tore his acl, sprained his mcl, and suffered two bone bruises. In a word -- catastrophic. It happened the same day he won the Lowe's Senior CLASS award.
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Saturday, April 3, 2010
Final Four Saturday!!! Here are our five semi-preposterous predictions |
Its finally here.
Semifinal Saturday.
If you haven't gotten your fill of Final Four chatter yet, then you are a glutton for punishment. We've seen preview after preview and more team breakdowns than Tiger Woods had blondes. We've talked about the horrors of expansion, but accepted it for what it is. We've seen lottery picks and NBDL benchwarmers declare for the draft. We've seen schools fire coaches and find a suitable hire, and we've seen schools fire coaches and strike out with every coach they offered.
There hasn't been much actual basketball played (Dayton won the dead man walking tournament NIT and VCU won the CBI), but this week sure did have its fair share of excitement and breaking news. If you weren't able to keep up, well, there's your refresher.
Now, it may be because the spirit of this upset laden tournament has gotten to us, and it may be because we've been sitting at an airport bar for the last two hours waiting on a friend to land, but if you hit the jump, you'll see our five semi-preposterous Final Four predictions.
Don't say we didn't call it:
Butler wins it all: Ronald Nored leads the Bulldogs defense, forcing Korie Lucious into 7 turnovers and a 2-12 shooting night, as Butler shuts down Michigan State. In the title game, the Bulldogs ride the wave of bandwagon fans as Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack both go for 25 points as Butler beats Duke. Butler students storm the floor at Hinkle Fieldhouse, and Hoosiers 2: A Bulldog Story is greenlit, starring Rob Brown as Shelvin Mack, Channing Tatum as Gordon Hayward, and Zac Efron as Brad Stevens.
Brian Zoubek wins Final Four MOP: Whenever Brian Zoubek steps on the court in this Final Four, he is going to be the biggest player on the court. And if you have been paying attention to Duke basketball the last two months, you would know that Zoubek has turned into an absolute monster on the glass and one mean SOB. Zoubek throws his weight -- and his -- elbows around en route to back to back 20-15 games, leading Duke to their fourth national title under Coach K. His beard is immediately tested for PED's.
Is that Scott Pollard?
(photo credit: GoDuke.com)
The title game is won on a buzzer beater: None of the four teams in the Final Four are really built to blow a team out. Butler relies on its defense to win games. Michigan State, without Kalin Lucas, just doesn't have the offensive firepower to blow someone out. West Virginia is probably not going to be hitting 10 threes again. Even Duke, a team that's recently been known for living and dying by the three, is winning games with their physicality this season. These are four very well coached teams that play smart basketball and understand the value of a possession. I know I'm not the only one expecting a couple of exciting games tonight.
Da'Sean Butler averages 30 ppg: Butler is a match-up nightmare in this Final Four. A natural three, he plays the two for this West Virginia team, creating all sorts of problems for opponents. If you look at the rosters of the other three Final Four teams, no one really has a perimeter player with his size or strength (I'll give you Durrell Summers, if he shows up). The thing that makes Butler so dangerous is that he can break down a defender off the dribble, but he can also play in the post and shoot a jump shot over the defender if he has a size advantage (which he will). And if this postseason has proven anything to you, Butler is as clutch and determined as they come.
Don't be surprised when Da'Sean Butler goes for 30. We tried to tell you.
(photo credit: ESPN)
Korie Lucious carries Michigan State: No one is really expecting much from Korie Lucious in this tournament. For starters, the only reason he is getting a start is that Kalin Lucas (is it just me, or does Korie Lucious sound like the alias that Kalin Lucas would use if he decided to do porn?) is out with a torn achilles. He's not a natural point guard, has had turnover issues, and is facing the best perimeter defender in the Final Four in Ronald Nored. All signs point to Lucious struggling. But keep in mind, this is the same kid that hit the buzzer-beating three against Maryland that sent Sparty to the Sweet 16. The kid has some stones, and he plays like it this weekend. Tom Izzo calls Lucious's number early and often, and the sophomore scores early and often, carrying the Spartans to the title as he averages 17 ppg and 6 apg, notching three broken ankles along the way.
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Final Four Preview: Butler vs. Michigan State |
Based strictly on their seeding -- that pesky little number always showing up next to the team names -- Michigan State and Butler should probably not be playing in the Final Four.
How quickly we forget that these two teams were picked by many back in October to be Final Four teams.
Butler struggled early in the season against some of the better teams that they faced, and it led many people to write them off as a team -- myself included. They were too small, they didn't have the athleticism to matchup with the power conference teams, and they play in the Horizon league. As much love as we give mid-majors programs here, there is a reason they are mid-major programs. Butler is a great basketball program, but they aren't going to be landing any McDonald's All-Americans. They aren't going to be churning out lottery picks. The way Butler is going to win games is by maximizing the talent that they do get into their program.
Butler plays the best team defense of the teams in the Final Four.(photo credit: Getty Images)
And don't fool yourself into thinking that Butler doesn't have talent.
Gordon Hayward is going to play in the NBA one day. A 6'9" two-guard with his skill set is going to get a shot somewhere, and he may even sneak into the back end of the lottery when he finally decides to go pro. Matt Howard was recruited by a number of Big Ten schools. He didn't end up at Butler, he chose Butler. Shelvin Mack is a Lexington native that drew interest from some high-majors and slipped through the cracks. I think he's certified himself as an Adam Dunn special -- one of the guys that the big schools whiffed on.
While Butler does have talent, the key to their team is that they don't rely on that talent to win. What Butler does is play arguably the toughest half court defense in the country, forcing you out of your comfort zone offensively, finishing off possessions by clearing the defensive glass. There may not be a better perimeter defender left in the tournament than Ronald Nored (if you don't believe me, go back and watch the struggles of talents like Randy Culpepper, Andy Rautins, Jacob Pullen, and Denis Clemente when they played Butler).
Then look at a guy like Willie Veasley. At 6'3", he essentially plays the power forward spot for Butler most of the time, but he was the one that drew the assignment of helping Ronald Nored slow down Kansas State's back court in the Elite 8. Anyone that saw that game would attest -- he did an exemplary job.
Michigan State, for much of the season, was the exact opposite of Butler. While they didn't exactly have NBA potential littering their roster like Kentucky did, there are more than a couple guys on this team that will get a shot at making an NBA roster. During the season, these guys just didn't live up to their potential. So while the inconsistent play of Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan and Kalin Lucas made everyone in the country temper their expectations for Sparty, it in effect made us forget just how good they really are. Remember, this is a team that returned a lot of important players from a team that was the national runner-up.
And in typical Tom Izzo fashion, Michigan State saved their best for the tournament. Durrell Summers -- the Midwest Region MOP -- was outstanding, averaging 20.0 ppg through the first two weekends. He was knocking down jumpers, getting to the basket, and turned into the Spartans best player in the clutch. Raymar Morgan has been playing like the tough, talented combo forward we all knew he could be. Delvon Roe, balky knee and all, has been active on the offensive glass. Draymond Green has done everything your glue guy and team leader is expected to do. Remember who set up both of Michigan State's game winners in this tournament?
There are a number of areas that can decide this game.
Michigan State is a very good rebounding team and Butler will have to keep them off the offensive glass. The Spartans are going to have to find a way to slow down Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward. Matt Howard has been extremely foul prone all season long, and while Andrew Smith performed valiantly on Saturday against K-State, Butler probably doesn't want to have to rely on another performance like that.
But where this game will be decided is with Korie Lucious. As we mentioned, Butler's back court is very, very good defensively. They can pressure the ball and make it difficult for your guards to be able to do anything on the offensive end. Lucious has not been great in his limited time at the point this year. He is a bit undersized, more of a natural scorer than a pure point guard, and as Tom Izzo has said, has a little streetball in him. He has shown a tendency to turn the ball over when faced with pressure, and you better believe that Brad Stevens will have his kids getting all over Lucious defensively.
Korie Lucious will be in for more Final Four disappointment if he can't handle Butler's pressure.(photo credit: Stilleto Sports)
One thing you can be sure of is Tom Izzo's ability to game-plan and to diagram sets that can be effective. If Lucious is able to perform against that pressure and get the Spartans into these sets, Michigan State is going to be in a very good position. If he can't, than Michigan State may not break 60 points, like each of Butler's last six opponents.
So who wins out? The team missing their star but led by Tom Izzo, or the team on a 24 game winning streak playing in their home city?
Expect a dogfight that ends with a coaching chess match.
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Final Four Preview: Duke vs. West Virginia |
This is not your older brother's Duke Blue Devils.
No sir.
This is not a finesse team. These Blue Devils don't have five guards on the floor. They aren't going to live and die by the three. The 2010 version of the Duke Blue Devils is a tough, physical group of kids. They defend, they hit the offensive glass hard.
Would you believe me if I told you that the key player on this team is Brian Zoubek? For three and a half seasons, Zoubek was a running joke. A top 25 recruit, Zoubek flopped more than Greg Paulus. My six year old nephew was stronger with the ball. I don't think he understood the concept of a post move. He still doesn't, but over the last 15 or so games of the season, Zoubek has developed into one of the best rebounders in the country. He's always been big, but he's developed an aggressive streak. He goes to the offensive glass hard, he sets screens like a brick wall (ask Chris Kramer, who got knocked out by a Zoubek screen), and he's good for a couple of buckets every game.
This was the old Brian Zoubek. The new one has a beard.
(photo credit: Cats and Beer)
Zoubek isn't the only capable big man that Duke has either. Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers are all strong, athletic, and capable of getting an offensive rebound or blocking a shot.
And Duke will need each one of them when they go up against the Mountaineers. If there is one thing that you can count on with a Bobby Huggins coached team, it is physicality. This version of the Eers has, at any given time, four combo forwards on the floor. All in the 6'7" to 6'9" range, all aggressive going to the glass, and all capable of hitting a perimeter jumper. Duke can rebound, but they are certainly going to have their work cut out for them against this team.
The key matchup in this game is going to be Da'Sean Butler. He usually plays the two-guard spot, and it is going to create a matchup problem both ways. Whether he is guarded by Jon Scheyer or Nolan Smith, he is going to have a size and strength advantage. Huggins isn't afraid to use Butler in the post, and his height advantage allows him to shoot over smaller defenders.
It works the other way too. Butler is a tough kid and a hard worker, but he is not as quick as Smith or Scheyer. If WVU decides to go man he is going to be matched up with one of them. It will be interesting to see what WVU ends up doing defensively. The zone worked against Kentucky because WVU was able to pack their defense in and dare Kentucky to shoot it from the perimeter, and one thing I can guarantee is that Duke won't miss their first 20 three pointers. The combination of Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler is really good. They can all shoot, put the ball on the floor, and pass. If the Eers are too go zone, they need to make a concerted effort on closing out long while cutting down driving lanes.
Kevin Jones and Da'Sean Butler are two of the more important Mountaineers.
(photo credit: MSN)
If Zoubek is the x-factor for Duke, Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith are for the Mounties. They are essentially the four and the five for West Virginia, and while neither really has much of a back to the basket game, what makes them so dangerous is their ability on the perimeter. Both are better than average shooters, which means that whoever is matched up on them (Zoubek, a Plumlee, Thomas) is going to need to defend them on the perimeter. If they do, that opens up rebounding lanes, and we all know how good WVU is going to the glass.
Two factors that will be talked about at length that I, personally, don't see being a huge issue is Truck Bryant and Kyle Singler. Bryant has a broken bone in his foot, but there is a chance that he could actually see time during the Final Four. If he does, I doubt he is going to be much of a factor. No matter what kind of orthotic you have put in your shoe, a broken bone is a broken bone. And if he doesn't play, well, we all saw what Joe Mazzulla is capable of.
As far as Singler goes, he has a tendency to struggle against players his size with his mobility, which is just about 75% of the WVU roster. I don't expect him to be much of a factor.
This is going to be a great basketball game. It won't be that aesthetically pleasing, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up somewhere in the low 60's. But what you will see are two well coached teams that play physical basketball and really compete hard.
I hope there is a lot of ice in Indianapolis, because these kids will need it Saturday night.
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Thursday, April 1, 2010
So expansion is happening |
Even before Jim Delany said that expansion was "probable" yesterday, I had all but resigned myself to the fact that it was happening. And while I think the 65 team format is worlds better, it is what it is, and there are some things to like about the new format. We can complain about it now, but we all know that we will be watching the games.
That said, I have no problem ripping the NCAA. Today in Indianapolis, Greg Shaheen, the NCAA senior vice president of basketball and business strategies, spoke at a press conference and essentially told us that the NCAA Tournament would, in fact, be expanding.
Specifically, he said that formats for 65, 68, 80, and 96 team tournaments were discussed, but during the press conference he went deep into specifics about just the 96 team tournament. Shaheen spent a lot of time trying to justify expansion, giving a list of reasons that you no doubt have heard before. You can read the entire transcript here (and for hoop-heads like myself, it is more than worth it), but this is the part of the presser that had everyone talking. Here is the format for the 96 team event:The model that has been talked about a great deal, the 96-team model, looks as follows:
You notice he doesn't mention anything about the second week. John Feinstein called him on it, and the following took place:
It starts on the same day. Technically speaking it starts two days later than the current championship because it would eliminate the opening round game. Rather than starting on Tuesday, it would start on Thursday. Start at the same time as the current championship does. It would conclude on the same day. It would conclude on Monday that the current championship does, as well.
It would not require any more competition venues. In fact, it would require one fewer venues in terms of what we normally operate with now.
In terms of days away from class and time away from class and campus, the models that we have studied, depending on which you look at, offer an equal or lesser amount of travel and time away from campus based on a comparison model in looking at the 96-team model.Q. Greg, you laid out in great detail the travel schedule for the first week. Just so I'm sure I have it right, you're going to play the round of 64 Saturday/Sunday, correct?
So let me get this straight. We still have a BCS system because the NCAA doesn't want kids to miss additional class time for a football tournament, but they have no problem making the teams that advance in the basketball tournament miss a week of class? And correct me if I'm wrong -- I've been out of college for a couple of years -- but isn't this right when midterms usually occur? Explain to me how that makes any sense.
GREG SHAHEEN: Uh-huh.
Q. So you didn't lay out the travel schedule for the second week when presumably teams will be playing Monday/Tuesday, then winners would go almost directly to regionals on Thursday/Friday, if that's the schedule as I think it is.
GREG SHAHEEN: It's one of several models that exist. But actually it doesn't necessarily mean that the play continues on Monday/Tuesday. Actually, depending on the structure, there can be a break on Monday so that a team that, for example, is playing Saturday could play Saturday, then Tuesday. So they would have both Sunday and Monday without games.
You also have to keep in mind that on any day of competition, you're losing half the field. Half of the teams are losing and returning home. So, for example, in the first four days of the championship, whereas right now you go from 65 during that time to 16, here you go from 96 to 32. So the majority of teams by number will be back home at that point in time.
But then for the teams that do advance, they would play -- they could play that Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday, for example, going into regional week.
Q. To follow up, if you're going Saturday/Tuesday, Sunday/Tuesday then with the teams that advance if they're playing Saturday/Sunday games, right?
GREG SHAHEEN: They would play Saturday/Tuesday.
Q. So you're not going to play any games on Sunday of the first weekend?
GREG SHAHEEN: No. You'd play half the games on Saturday, half the games on Sunday.
Q. The Sunday teams that advance would play on Tuesday or are you saying Wednesday?
GREG SHAHEEN: Wednesday.
Q. Basically they'll be out of school an entire week the second week?
GREG SHAHEEN: Actually, if you were to look at the window for each individual team, you have to take each team and contemplate the fact right now you have half the field leaving campus on Tuesday, returning on Sunday or Monday.
Q. If they lose. I'm talking about the teams that win in advance. You're going to advance 16 teams.
GREG SHAHEEN: No, actually in the current model you have teams that depart on Tuesday, and even if they win, return on Sunday.
Q. We're misunderstanding each other. Under the new model that you laid out, you play 64 teams Thursday/Friday. 32 advance to games Saturday/Sunday. Then you are down after those games to 32 teams.
GREG SHAHEEN: Right.
Q. You're saying you play games in the round of 32 Tuesday/Wednesday. They would then advance to regionals when?
GREG SHAHEEN: They would continue into the regional as it's normally scheduled now.
Q. So they would go Tuesday to Thursday, Wednesday to Friday?
GREG SHAHEEN: Right.
Q. So they miss an entire week of school. That's what I'm trying to get.
GREG SHAHEEN: If you listened to my original answer, they leave now on Tuesday.
Q. I'm talking about the second week, not the first week. They play a game Saturday/Sunday, play a game Tuesday or Wednesday, then go directly to the regional. Tell me when in that second week they're going to be in class.
GREG SHAHEEN: The entire first week, the majority of the teams would be in class.
Q. You're just not going to answer the question about the second week. You're going to keep referring back to the first week, right? They're going to miss the entire second week under this model.
GREG SHAHEEN: So they're going to go to school the first week, and then they're --
Q. They're going to be under the same schedule you said basically the first week, and then they'll miss the entire second week.
GREG SHAHEEN: I'm clearly missing the nuance of your point.
Q. You and I miss nuances a lot. Thank you.
BOB WILLIAMS: Next question, please.
Did you notice in the transcript that Shaheen refused to directly answer the question of scheduling for that week?
And the NCAA isn't all about making money. Right.
At this point we should just call it like it is and pay these players.
For more analysis about the presser, check the twitter feeds of Pat Forde and Gary Parrish
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2010 Final Four Previews: Duke Breakdown |
Over the next two days, we will be taking a team-by-team look at the Final Four.
DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Star: Can you really decipher between the big three on Duke? All three average between 17.4 ppg and 18.2 ppg. Kyle Singler was an all-american last year. Jon Scheyer was this year. Dollars to donuts, Nolan Smith will be an all-american next year. Singler is going to have a tough matchup against West Virginia, but the Mountaineers are going to have a tough time matching up with Scheyer and Smith, as they only have one real guard on the court at any given time.
Nolan Smith was a big part of Duke's success this year.(photo credit: AP)
Unheralded Hero: For three and a half years, Brian Zoubek was a running joke. Soft, slow, unathletic, uncoordinated. But something clicked with Zoubek midway through this season. The 7-footer is now a rebounding machine, a tough SOB on in the paint that isn't scared to drop an elbow or set a menacing screen. Duke has become one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and Zoubek is the biggest reason why.
How they got here: Duke smoked both Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Cal during the first weekend. Against Purdue in the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils got off to a sloppy start, but turned it on in the second half as they out-toughed one of the toughest teams in the country. In the Elite 8 against Baylor, Duke pulled away late. While some credit it to a shady call on a charge against Quincy Acy (drawn by Brian Zoubek, who else), it actuality it was four offensive rebounds that led to three threes and a three-point play down the stretch.
Three reasons they can win it all:
- Perimeter play: As I mentioned, Duke's three perimeter guys are fantastic. There is a reason Duke is the most efficient offensive team in the country. West Virginia, whether they go man or zone, is going to have a tough time defending Duke's three perimeter guys. They can't go zone. Scheyer, Smith, and Singler are just too good. They all can shoot, and all three are capable of putting the ball on the floor, getting into the paint and making a play. If they go man-to-man, Duke is still going to have an advantage. One of West Virginia's four forwards is going to have to defend either Scheyer or Smith. Can they?
- Toughness: This isn't your typical Duke team. This is a tough group of guys. They defend and they rebound. Ask Baylor. The Blue Devils got 23 offensive rebounds against the big, athletic front line of the Bears. Ask Purdue, Cal, or Arkansas Pine-Bluff, who combined to score 154 points against the Blue Devils. Ask Chris Kramer, who was knocked out by a Brian Zoubek screen. With guys like Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Plumlees, Duke is bigger and more athletic than they have been in a long time.
- Mental Toughness: Its not just physical toughness either. Duke has been run through the ringer this season. From the typical "Duke is overrated" storyline to the idea that they couldn't win on the road. They are hated in everyone arena they play in. They have dealt with tragedy -- Andre Dawkins sister died ths season, Nolan Smith is on a mission to win a title in the same city his father won one 30 years ago. The pressure of a Final Four doesn't seem like it will register to this team.
Three reasons they won't:
- Kyle Singler's inconsistency: Singler has not had a bad season, per se, but he has definitely regressed from where he was last year. While some of it is a result of the emergence of Smith and Scheyer as stars, a big reason has been his move to the perimeter exclusively. Singler excelled at the four, where he was quicker than most of the people that would defend him. But he struggles when he has to go against players with a similar physical profile. West Virginia is chock full of them. Butler and Michigan State both have guys that match up very well with Singler. If he has another performance like he did against Baylor, and Smith and Scheyer don't combine for 49 points, Duke could be in trouble.
- Playing the bad guy: Duke is always going to be the enemy. Coach K is always going to be the enemy. That's what you sign up for when you decide to play for the Blue Devils. In each of their Final Four games, every fan not wearing blue will be cheering against the Dukies.
- Pressure on the back court: Duke struggled in the first half against Purdue. They held the Boilermakers to just 23 points, but could only muster 24. As tough and physical as Duke's front court is, their back court can be pressured and pushed around. If you get them uncomfortable, they miss shots. If they are missing shots, Duke is very beatable.
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2010 Final Four Previews: West Virginia Breakdown |
Over the next two days, we will be taking a team-by-team look at the Final Four.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Star: As good as Joe Mazzulla was on Saturday, the star of this West Virginia team is Da'Sean Butler, as he kind of embodies what they are all about. Butler isn't flashy. He isn't a great athlete, he doesn't handle the ball all that well, and his jumper is pretty ugly. But it all works, he gets the job done. And Butler can really do it all; he's one of those guys that isn't great at any one thing, but is pretty good at just about everything. He can defend multiple positions, he can hit a three, he can slash to the rim, and he can get on the boards. Oh, and something about game-winning shots?
Da'Sean Butler has been as clutch as any player in the country this season.(photo credit: Washington Post)
Unheralded Hero: The obvious answer is Joe Mazzulla, but Mazzulla had to go and have an awesome game on Saturday, scoring 17 points against Kentucky and winning the East Region MOP. The other answer is Wellington Smith. Of West Virginia's four starting forwards, Smith is the one that gets the least fanfare. Smith is a versatile forward, and given his girth he usually ends up defending an opponent's biggest player with the Eers decide to go man. He rebounds the ball, especially on the offensive end of the floor. But perhaps his most valuable skill is the ability to knock down a three. Since he often is guarded an opponent's big man, he draws the defender out to the perimeter, which helps to open up the paint.
How they got here: After smoking Morgan State in the opening round of the tournament, West Virginia got 19 first half points from Da'Sean Butler as the Mounties were able to dictate tempo and avoid turnovers in a win over Missouri. WVU pulled away from Washington in the second half of their Sweet 16 game, getting 18 points and 8 boards from Kevin Smith. Against Kentucky in the Elie 8, West Virginia hit eight threes and no twos in the first half, but still found themselves in the lead. The Eers, sparked by Joe Mazzulla, would go on a big second half run to take a 16 point lead and hold on for the win.
Three reasons they can win it all:
- Rebounding: In a Final Four based around rebounding, West Virginia may very well be the best rebounding team left. Why? Because they have to get to the offensive glass if they are going to win. This isn't a team loaded with offensive superstars. There are times when the Mounties downright struggle to score and their best offensive becomes taking a shot and chasing a rebound. And they are good at it. WVU has four guy on the floor at any given time that are 6'7"-6'9", physical, athletic, and that really chase the ball.
- They don't have to play just zone: I don't think West Virginia is going to be able to use that 1-3-1 defense against Duke. The Blue Devils just have too many good perimeter players and too many good shooters. The good news? West Virginia isn't a zone team. Up until recently, the Eers were known for their man-to-man defense. The one was a wrinkle that Huggins put in prior to a game earlier in the season, and it was effective enough to stick.
- The Da'Sean Butler effect: I have been high on Butler since his sophomore season with WVU. The kid plays hard, plays smart, and has turned into arguably the best clutch shooter in the country. He hit those six game-winners. He scored 19 first half points against Missouri as the Tigers were trying to run away from WVU. He hit four straight threes to kickstart the Eers against Kentucky. Oh, and he surprises old Mountaineer fans in the hospital.
Three reasons they won't win it all:
- They aren't hitting ten threes again: This is not a great shooting team. They shoot just 33% from deep, and usually make about six per game. They don't win that Kentucky game if they don't hit ten threes. Granted, the Wildcats are a different kind of team defensively that Duke is, but Duke may actually be better. They excel in the half court not at forcing turnovers or blocking shots, but simply at making you take the toughest shot they can. West Virginia is a team that can struggle on the offensive end at times, especially against good, disciplined defensive teams.
- How many more tricks does Joe Mazzulla have left up his sleeve?: In 2008's second round, Joe Mazzulla had 13 points, 11 boards, and 8 assists as West Virginia knocked off Duke as a seven seed. On Saturday, Mazzulla had 17 points, including 14 in the second half, as he led WVU to a 73-66 upset of the Wildcats. Does he have anything left? Will he be able to put on his show again? Keep in mind, Duke's guards are much more fundamental on the defensive end, and Mazzulla is playing with one shoulder. And if Truck Bryant is unable to play, Mazzulla becomes that much more important against.
- Devin Ebanks is simply not a great player: Yes, he may one day be an NBA all-star, but right now he really has no clue what he's doing. Twice in the last month he has obliterated plays in the final seconds by being unaware of how much time was left. He can't really dribble, he can't really shoot, and he doesn't have much in the way of a back to the basket game. While he may still end up with 12 points, 6 boards, and a handful of assists, steals, and/or blocks, he is not a guy you want to rely on to get you consistent anything.
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Maybe 96 teams isn't so bad after all... |
This is probably going to get me ripped. To be honest, I can't believe I'm actually about to type the words I am going to type. This here column may get me banned from the internet, or at the very least suspended from all online activity for conduct detrimental to hoop-heads worldwide. If I end up the pariah of the blogosphere, a heretic that will be black-balled from all future linkage, I'll have to accept that I, in fact, brought it upon myself.
Here it is.
You ready for it?
I think I am warming up to the idea of a 96 team tournament.
(Keyword: think)
This may be the last time you actually see this bracket.(photo credit: ESPN)
Yesterday, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany stated that he believed that NCAA tournament expansion to 96 teams was probably, a kick to the already-sore-collective-groin of college hoops junkies.
I've been vocal in my displeasure with the tournament expansion talk. I think everyone has. But for the first time this afternoon, I actually really sat down and thought about it.
And I wasn't disgusted.
I may just be reaching the fifth stage of grieving -- acceptance -- but hear me out.
For starters, the way that it seems to be playing out is that the first weekend of the tournament will turn into the first week. 32 teams -- the top eight seeds from each region -- will get a bye, while 64 more teams will play a play-in game for the last 32 spots on that Tuesday and Wednesday. The Round of 64 and the Round of 32 will continue to be played on the same Thursday-Sunday schedule.
In other words, we won't just be getting 16 games over the course of 12 hours on Thursday and Friday, we will be getting it on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. I'm always a fan of midweek, noontime college hoops. West coasters can pull for an upset while sipping their Starbucks. The only people really hurt by that are the bosses who would have to deal with their employees watching MMOD.
The team's that would be joining the tournament are essentially the teams that would be in the NIT. Typically, the NIT is where you are banished when your team simply isn't good enough, right?
Right. But the NIT has been kind of exciting this season, especially the first round. Memphis beat St. John's on a buzzer beater. Jacksonville banked in a three to beat Arizona State, an eight seed knocking off a one seed. Kent State beat Tulsa in the final minute, while UConn went down to the wire against Northeastern.
Hell, we even had some outrage, albeit minor, over a call in the NIT semis last night.
Look, I'm not saying that this was great basketball. I'm not even saying it was good. But it was exciting. It was fun. The theory right now is that the NIT would essentially be folded into the NCAA's. If the teams came to play in the NIT opening round, you better believe that they would come to play in the NCAA's.
Now imagine if one of those teams makes a run into the second weekend. How long would it take to see a team get three first weekend wins? You're telling me you wouldn't be intrigued by a 20 seed playing a five seed for the right to go to the Sweet 16? Talk about a cinderella story.
Another argument against expansion is that it makes the regular season meaningless. If the NIT is truly being folded into the NCAA Tournament, then that means that all conference regular season champions will be getting automatic bids to the Big Dance as well as the tournament champions.
And believe it or not, there is still going to be a cut line. There won't be 12 ACC teams in the Big Dance. The Big East isn't sending all 16 teams from the conference to the tournament. They may get nine or ten, but there is still going to be a bubble. Its just further down the totem pole.
There is also another dynamic here as well. The bye line.
Perhaps the most interesting race in the college basketball regular season is for conference tournament byes. If Georgetown is the nine seed instead of the eight seed in the Big East tournament, do they still make the finals playing that extra game? Three games in five days is a tough thing to do, let alone three NCAA Tournament games. It will wear on you mentally and physically. For a team at the 8-9 cut line, the difference could be a real shot at upsetting a #1 seed.
No, the regular season is going to matter quite a bit.
I love the tournament the way it is set up. Its nearly perfect the way it is (that stupid play-in game). If it were up to me, I wouldn't change a thing.
But its not up to me. And it is looking more and more likely that this is going to happen.
Maybe its time we all just accept our fate, make the best of it, and move on.
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