Title Game Preview: Duke vs. Butler

There is not doubt that Duke is the favorite tonight.

6.5 points to be exact. They could be giving ten points, and they would still seem like a safe bet based on how they played against West Virginia.

That is how good the Blue Devils looked Saturday night. I've seen Duke play a good 12-15 times this season, and never were they as impressive. Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, and Jon Scheyer absolutely dominated West Virginia's perimeter defenders, combining to go for 63 points on 22-45 shooting, 12-23 on threes, and 17 assists to just three turnovers. The Blue Devils crashed the offensive glass, with Brian Zoubek leading the charge as they got open look after open look off of offensive rebounds. They turned the ball over just five times as a team.

If you want an idea of how good Duke was Saturday night, think about this. They were the most efficient offensive team in the country this season, and Saturday was their second best performance offensively on the year. The best? When they scored 114 points against Penn back in December.

Think about that.

Butler is going to have their work cut out for them. The Bulldogs will be at a tremendous size disadvantage. With Matt Howard on the floor (which isn't a certainty, as he may have a concussion, but I expect him to play), their front line consists of the 6'8" Howard, 6'3" Willie Veasley, and the 6'9" Gordon Hayward, who is a natural two guard. 6'8" Avery Jukes and 6'11" Andrew Smith come off the bench.

Duke, on the other hand, is as big as they have been in a long time. Brian Zoubek, who is finally embracing his 7'0" frame, and Lance Thomas, a workhorse a 6'8", start, while the 6'10" Plumlees come in off the bench. Those four go to the glass hard. Butler has been able to handle a couple of very good rebounding teams the last two games -- Michigan State and Kansas State -- but Duke is bigger than either of those them.

This has been said a thousand times already this week, but Brian Zoubek is the key to this team. He really attacks the offensive glass, he defends, he sets a lot of screens (and trust me, you don't want to be on the receiving end of one of those if it isn't called out), and he is good for a couple of buckets a game. A key for Butler may be to try and get Zoubek in foul trouble. And while the guy is a hack, he generally picks up his fouls trying to draw charges, reaching, or going over the back. In other words, he generally sets himself up for the fouls he picks up. So box him out and attack the rim when he is in the game, and see what happens.

The Bulldogs are also going to have to slow down the three-headed monster of Smith, Scheyer, and Singler. Again, Butler has the tools and the track record to make you believe that they can slow down talented perimeter players, but they have yet to face a team with three weapons as potent as Duke's back court. Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente are as good, if not better, than Smith and Scheyer, but did Kansas State have anyone close to as talented as Kyle Singler is? As much as I like Andy Rautins, Wes Johnson, and the two Syracuse point guards, they are not as good as Duke's perimeter.

The matchups are going to be interesting, and to be honest I think Butler matches up fairly well with Duke's starters. Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored will be on Scheyer and Smith (I expect Nored to be on Smith, as Smith generally plays off the ball more). Veasley will be at a size disadvantage against Kyle Singler, but he is a tough, scrappy defender. So long as Hayward boxes out, he shouldn't have a problem guarding Thomas, and Howard would be on Zoubek.

If Butler is going to win, there are three things that they absolutely have to do:

1. They need to control the style of play: Duke isn't necessarily a team that wants to get out and run the floor. They can do it if they need to, but the Blue Devils are more about execution in the half court, getting good shots for their big three, and then attacking the offensive glass. Duke plays a smart, aesthetic brand of basketball. Butler is a bunch of junkyard dogs. They need to turn this into a scrap. Butler needs to be in the jock of the Duke players, not only contesting every shot, but making every pass difficult. If the blue Devils shooters are comfortable and making shots, Butler will be in for a long night. Keep this one in the 50's, make it an ugly game, and the Bulldogs will have a good shot at winning.


2. Finish possessions: Butler cannot relax just because they made Duke take a tough shot. Duke is so good at getting offensive rebounds, but they are made all the more dangerous because they don't necessarily go right back up with the board. If you go back and rewatch their last couple of games, Duke broke it open with offensive rebounds leading to kick outs for wide open threes. The easiest three to make is a good look when the ball is kicked out from the paint. Limit the Blue Devils second chances.


3. Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward need to have good games: There is not a lot of offensive firepower on this team, and Duke is a good defensive team. As good as Butler is defensively, this game is still won by scoring more points than your opponent. If one or both of these guys have off nights, the Bulldogs are in trouble.