2010 Final Four Previews: Duke Breakdown

Over the next two days, we will be taking a team-by-team look at the Final Four.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Star: Can you really decipher between the big three on Duke? All three average between 17.4 ppg and 18.2 ppg. Kyle Singler was an all-american last year. Jon Scheyer was this year. Dollars to donuts, Nolan Smith will be an all-american next year. Singler is going to have a tough matchup against West Virginia, but the Mountaineers are going to have a tough time matching up with Scheyer and Smith, as they only have one real guard on the court at any given time.

Nolan Smith was a big part of Duke's success this year.
(photo credit: AP)

Unheralded Hero: For three and a half years, Brian Zoubek was a running joke. Soft, slow, unathletic, uncoordinated. But something clicked with Zoubek midway through this season. The 7-footer is now a rebounding machine, a tough SOB on in the paint that isn't scared to drop an elbow or set a menacing screen. Duke has become one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and Zoubek is the biggest reason why.

How they got here: Duke smoked both Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Cal during the first weekend. Against Purdue in the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils got off to a sloppy start, but turned it on in the second half as they out-toughed one of the toughest teams in the country. In the Elite 8 against Baylor, Duke pulled away late. While some credit it to a shady call on a charge against Quincy Acy (drawn by Brian Zoubek, who else), it actuality it was four offensive rebounds that led to three threes and a three-point play down the stretch.

Three reasons they can win it all:

1. Perimeter play: As I mentioned, Duke's three perimeter guys are fantastic. There is a reason Duke is the most efficient offensive team in the country. West Virginia, whether they go man or zone, is going to have a tough time defending Duke's three perimeter guys. They can't go zone. Scheyer, Smith, and Singler are just too good. They all can shoot, and all three are capable of putting the ball on the floor, getting into the paint and making a play. If they go man-to-man, Duke is still going to have an advantage. One of West Virginia's four forwards is going to have to defend either Scheyer or Smith. Can they?


2. Toughness: This isn't your typical Duke team. This is a tough group of guys. They defend and they rebound. Ask Baylor. The Blue Devils got 23 offensive rebounds against the big, athletic front line of the Bears. Ask Purdue, Cal, or Arkansas Pine-Bluff, who combined to score 154 points against the Blue Devils. Ask Chris Kramer, who was knocked out by a Brian Zoubek screen. With guys like Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Plumlees, Duke is bigger and more athletic than they have been in a long time.
   


3. Mental Toughness: Its not just physical toughness either. Duke has been run through the ringer this season. From the typical "Duke is overrated" storyline to the idea that they couldn't win on the road. They are hated in everyone arena they play in. They have dealt with tragedy -- Andre Dawkins sister died ths season, Nolan Smith is on a mission to win a title in the same city his father won one 30 years ago. The pressure of a Final Four doesn't seem like it will register to this team.

Three reasons they won't:

1. Kyle Singler's inconsistency: Singler has not had a bad season, per se, but he has definitely regressed from where he was last year. While some of it is a result of the emergence of Smith and Scheyer as stars, a big reason has been his move to the perimeter exclusively. Singler excelled at the four, where he was quicker than most of the people that would defend him. But he struggles when he has to go against players with a similar physical profile. West Virginia is chock full of them. Butler and Michigan State both have guys that match up very well with Singler. If he has another performance like he did against Baylor, and Smith and Scheyer don't combine for 49 points, Duke could be in trouble.


2. Playing the bad guy: Duke is always going to be the enemy. Coach K is always going to be the enemy. That's what you sign up for when you decide to play for the Blue Devils. In each of their Final Four games, every fan not wearing blue will be cheering against the Dukies.


3. Pressure on the back court: Duke struggled in the first half against Purdue. They held the Boilermakers to just 23 points, but could only muster 24. As tough and physical as Duke's front court is, their back court can be pressured and pushed around. If you get them uncomfortable, they miss shots. If they are missing shots, Duke is very beatable.