This year's NCAA Tournament is chock full of cinderella stories. Only eight of the Sweet 16 teams were the highest seeded team in their first weekend pod. 11 different conferences are represented. There are still three double digit seeds and one nine seed left.
And three certified cinderella stories - Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, and Cornell.
Who can make it to the weekend in their glass slipper?
Cornell: #12 seed, East Region
Cornell torched Temple. They dissected Wisconsin. No matter how you look at it, no matter what stats you throw out there, there is no argument. Temple and Wisconsin are two of the best defensive teams in the country. There's no question about it. And Cornell tore them to shreds on the offensive end of the floor. Its the easy answer, I know, but its also very, very true.
Cornell is an efficient, smart, well-coached team. They run their sets. They know when they are going to get their shots, and they don't care who gets them. And it helps that they have a number of talented basketball players. Louis Dale is one of the better point guards in the country, and may be the best you have never seen. Ryan Wittman is a 6'6" shooter that is nearly automatic when he gets his feet set and his shoulders squared. Jeff Foote is a legit 7'-footer with a legit game. Chris Wroblewski, Jon Jacques, Geoff Reeves. This is a team that can put up points with anyone in the country. Just ask Temple and Wisconsin.
Defensively, Kentucky rates right up there with Wisconsin and Temple. The difference between the Wildcats and those two teams, however, is that the Wildcats are much, much better on the offensive end of the floor. Think about it like this: Patrick Patterson was an all-american the last few years, a double-double machine. And he is playing a role for these Wildcats. As good as Cornell is on the offensive end of the floor, they are not all that good defensively. Kentucky is going to put a lineup on the floor where they have five guys that are threats. Can Cornell slow them down?
Kentucky is a different kind of team than Wisconsin and Temple. Where the Badgers and the Owls try to grind you down, forcing you to take tough shots and then going to get the rebound, Kentucky is longer and more athletic. Granted, a good offensive team like Cornell is going to be able to execute against any defense, but Kentucky's length and athleticism will allow them to close out on shooters, contest more shots, and get to help side quicker. They're better getting to the offensive glass and they're better running the floor.
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Thursday, March 25, 2010
2010 NCAA Tournament: Previewing the cinderellas: Pt. 3 Cornell |
2010 NCAA Tournament: Previewing the cinderellas: Pt. 2 St. Mary's |
This year's NCAA Tournament is chock full of cinderella stories. Only eight of the Sweet 16 teams were the highest seeded team in their first weekend pod. 11 different conferences are represented. There are still three double digit seeds and one nine seed left.
And three certified cinderella stories - Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, and Cornell.
Who can make it to the weekend in their glass slipper?
St. Mary's: #10 seed, South Region
I think it is safe to say the secret is out on Omar Samhan. That's what happens when you decide to torch your first two tournament opponents for 61 points and 19 boards. Intentional or not, Samhan is going to be getting extra attention from the Bears. Scott Drew would be crazy not to.
What people don't realize is that St. Mary's is a lot more than just the Sandman. Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova are much better than you think, and can flat out shoot the ball. Ben Allen may be 6'11", but he is a skilled big man that can pass and is not afraid to shoot a three. Clint Steindl and Jorden Page both are capable of going for 15 points if they get hot. If Baylor collapses inside on the Gael's big man, there are a lot of other weapons on this team. The biggest weakness in Baylor's zone? Preventing their opponent's from getting good looks on the perimeter. If SMC is hitting shots (which they do quite often, they are the sixth best three point shooting team in the country), they have a very real shot at advancing.
The Bears have as good of a three-headed monster as you will see in college basketball. Tweety Carter has turned himself from an offensive sparkplug off the bench and into one of the more dynamic point guards in the country. LaceDarius Dunn wasn't the best scorer in the Big XII this year (that honor goes to James Anderson), but he was right up there with him. Ekpe Udoh is more than just a shot blocker. He's a versatile big man that can score on the block and hit a jumper.
And they haven't really gotten it going yet in the tournament. Udoh was a monster in the first round, but struggled in the second round. Vice versa for Dunn. Carter really struggled in the first round, and while he had a nice floor against Old Dominion -- 8 assists and no turnovers -- he is averaging just 7.0 ppg in the tournament. Baylor is a very good offensive team, fifth in the nation in efficiency, especially when their big three gets hot. If they do, I'm not sure St. Mary's is good enough defensively to slow them down.
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2010 NCAA Tournament: Previewing the cinderellas: Pt. 1 Northern Iowa |
(Ed. Note: First things first: don't call Butler or Xavier cinderellas.
Cinderellas are mid-major programs that string together an upset or two while making a surprise appearance in the tournament's second weekend.
Xavier is not a mid-major program. They haven't been in a long time. This is a team that is always in contention for at-large bids, conference championships, and top 100 recruits. Just because they play in a "mid-major" conference doesn't mean they are a mid-major program. Same with Gonzaga and Memphis. Butler is well on their way to reaching that level.
Washington is not a cinderella either. I have a tough time considering any major conference program a "cinderella" in the NCAA Tournament. But when that program, which was top 15 in the preseason, disappointed all season long, sneaking their way into the dance as an 11 seed after winning their conference tournament, they absolutely cannot be considered a cinderella.
Now that I've gotten that out of the way...)
This year's NCAA Tournament is chock full of cinderella stories. Only eight of the Sweet 16 teams were the highest seeded team in their first weekend pod. 11 different conferences are represented. There are still three double digit seeds and one nine seed left.
And three certified cinderella stories - Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, and Cornell.
Who can make it to the weekend in their glass slipper?
Northern Iowa: #9 seed, Midwest Region
The Panthers probably have the easiest matchup of the Sweet 16 games. Michigan State has not been a great offensive team this year, and now they are playing without the one true point guard on their roster -- last year's Big Ten player of the year Kalin Lucas. Don't get me wrong, Korie Lucious is a talented basketball player. He can shoot Maryland found that out the hard way) and he can score. But is he a facilitator? When Lucas missed the Illinois game with an ankle injury, Lucious looked very uncomfortable setting up the Spartans in the half court. He turned the ball over six times and shot just 1-5 from the floor. He just isn't a natural playmaker.
And if there is anything that Northern Iowa can do, it is defend. They have a bunch of tough, scrappy defenders on their team. They don't allow penetration and they take you out of what you want to do offensively. For a team dealing with leadership and focus issues, losing their star player and offensive focal point could be disastrous. Will someone from Michigan State step up and take charge?
There may not be a better "game" coach than Tom Izzo. From game-planning to late game management, I don't think there is another coach in the country I would want leading my team in March over Tom Izzo. It shows in the results. How often does Izzo make it farther than expected in March? Every season? His kids come ready to play, and this tournament is no different. Against both New Mexico State and Maryland, the Spartans jumped out to big leads before holding on down the stretch.
And "ready to play" is going to be the key term for the Spartans. They aren't going to be getting many good opportunities for them to score, which means they will have to maximize the chances they get. Their best offense may actually be throwing up a shot and going to get the rebound. Michigan State is the sixth-best offensive rebounding team in the country, and against Northern Iowa they are going to have a decided athleticism advantage against the Panthers. Nothing against guys like Jordan Eglseder, Adam Koch, and Lucas O'Rear -- who are clearly all exceptional athletes, otherwise they wouldn't be scholarship players -- but Delvon Roe, Raymar Morgan, Durrell Summers, and Draymond Green are athletic freaks. MSU doesn't force many turnovers and could struggle in transition, making it all the more important to get easy baskets off of second chance opportunities.
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