2010 NCAA Tournament: Previewing the cinderellas: Pt. 2 St. Mary's

This year's NCAA Tournament is chock full of cinderella stories. Only eight of the Sweet 16 teams were the highest seeded team in their first weekend pod. 11 different conferences are represented. There are still three double digit seeds and one nine seed left.

And three certified cinderella stories - Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, and Cornell.

Who can make it to the weekend in their glass slipper?

St. Mary's: #10 seed, South Region

• Why the slipper will fit: St. Mary's perimeter shooting
  
  I think it is safe to say the secret is out on Omar Samhan. That's what happens when you decide to torch your first two tournament opponents for 61 points and 19 boards. Intentional or not, Samhan is going to be getting extra attention from the Bears. Scott Drew would be crazy not to.
  
  What people don't realize is that St. Mary's is a lot more than just the Sandman. Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova are much better than you think, and can flat out shoot the ball. Ben Allen may be 6'11", but he is a skilled big man that can pass and is not afraid to shoot a three. Clint Steindl and Jorden Page both are capable of going for 15 points if they get hot. If Baylor collapses inside on the Gael's big man, there are a lot of other weapons on this team. The biggest weakness in Baylor's zone? Preventing their opponent's from getting good looks on the perimeter. If SMC is hitting shots (which they do quite often, they are the sixth best three point shooting team in the country), they have a very real shot at advancing.


• Why the slipper won't fit: Baylor hasn't been Baylor ... yet
  
  The Bears have as good of a three-headed monster as you will see in college basketball. Tweety Carter has turned himself from an offensive sparkplug off the bench and into one of the more dynamic point guards in the country. LaceDarius Dunn wasn't the best scorer in the Big XII this year (that honor goes to James Anderson), but he was right up there with him. Ekpe Udoh is more than just a shot blocker. He's a versatile big man that can score on the block and hit a jumper.
  
  And they haven't really gotten it going yet in the tournament. Udoh was a monster in the first round, but struggled in the second round. Vice versa for Dunn. Carter really struggled in the first round, and while he had a nice floor against Old Dominion -- 8 assists and no turnovers -- he is averaging just 7.0 ppg in the tournament. Baylor is a very good offensive team, fifth in the nation in efficiency, especially when their big three gets hot. If they do, I'm not sure St. Mary's is good enough defensively to slow them down.


• The BIAH Prediction: Two high-powered offenses, and two defenses that leave a little something to be desired. Expect a fairly high scoring games -- and a lot of threes, for those who like that sort of thing -- but I'm betting Samhan gets into some foul trouble trying to defend Baylor's bigs. Without Samhan, Baylor is too much for the Gaels. If he doesn't, I think St. Mary's will pull this off.