2010 NCAA Tournament: Previewing the cinderellas: Pt. 1 Northern Iowa

(Ed. Note: First things first: don't call Butler or Xavier cinderellas.

Cinderellas are mid-major programs that string together an upset or two while making a surprise appearance in the tournament's second weekend.

Xavier is not a mid-major program. They haven't been in a long time. This is a team that is always in contention for at-large bids, conference championships, and top 100 recruits. Just because they play in a "mid-major" conference doesn't mean they are a mid-major program. Same with Gonzaga and Memphis. Butler is well on their way to reaching that level.

Washington is not a cinderella either. I have a tough time considering any major conference program a "cinderella" in the NCAA Tournament. But when that program, which was top 15 in the preseason, disappointed all season long, sneaking their way into the dance as an 11 seed after winning their conference tournament, they absolutely cannot be considered a cinderella.

Now that I've gotten that out of the way...)

This year's NCAA Tournament is chock full of cinderella stories. Only eight of the Sweet 16 teams were the highest seeded team in their first weekend pod. 11 different conferences are represented. There are still three double digit seeds and one nine seed left.

And three certified cinderella stories - Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, and Cornell.

Who can make it to the weekend in their glass slipper?

Northern Iowa: #9 seed, Midwest Region

• Why the slipper will fit: Defense.
  
  The Panthers probably have the easiest matchup of the Sweet 16 games. Michigan State has not been a great offensive team this year, and now they are playing without the one true point guard on their roster -- last year's Big Ten player of the year Kalin Lucas. Don't get me wrong, Korie Lucious is a talented basketball player. He can shoot Maryland found that out the hard way) and he can score. But is he a facilitator? When Lucas missed the Illinois game with an ankle injury, Lucious looked very uncomfortable setting up the Spartans in the half court. He turned the ball over six times and shot just 1-5 from the floor. He just isn't a natural playmaker.
  
  And if there is anything that Northern Iowa can do, it is defend. They have a bunch of tough, scrappy defenders on their team. They don't allow penetration and they take you out of what you want to do offensively. For a team dealing with leadership and focus issues, losing their star player and offensive focal point could be disastrous. Will someone from Michigan State step up and take charge?


• Why the slipper won't fit: Tom Izzo and the offensive glass
  
  There may not be a better "game" coach than Tom Izzo. From game-planning to late game management, I don't think there is another coach in the country I would want leading my team in March over Tom Izzo. It shows in the results. How often does Izzo make it farther than expected in March? Every season? His kids come ready to play, and this tournament is no different. Against both New Mexico State and Maryland, the Spartans jumped out to big leads before holding on down the stretch.
  
  And "ready to play" is going to be the key term for the Spartans. They aren't going to be getting many good opportunities for them to score, which means they will have to maximize the chances they get. Their best offense may actually be throwing up a shot and going to get the rebound. Michigan State is the sixth-best offensive rebounding team in the country, and against Northern Iowa they are going to have a decided athleticism advantage against the Panthers. Nothing against guys like Jordan Eglseder, Adam Koch, and Lucas O'Rear -- who are clearly all exceptional athletes, otherwise they wouldn't be scholarship players -- but Delvon Roe, Raymar Morgan, Durrell Summers, and Draymond Green are athletic freaks. MSU doesn't force many turnovers and could struggle in transition, making it all the more important to get easy baskets off of second chance opportunities.


• The BIAH Prediction: This game ends up somewhere in the 50's. A slugfest that is not the most watchable game, it comes down to a chessmatch in the final minutes between Ben Jacobson and Izzo, with Izzo winning. Is it too much to predict the game coming down to another three point attempt from the UNI-bomber, Ali Farokhmanesh?