POSTERIZED: Jahii Carson has some serious hops

Jahii Carson is going to Arizona State.

Watch this video. Who is happier -- Herb Sendek or the Sun Devil fans that get to watch this kid play?



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Demetrius Walker illustrates the problems with scouting at a young age

In 2005, the next LeBron James was supposed to be Demetrius Walker.

Remember him? Ever heard of him?

No?

Well, I don't blame you. Because unless you remember an article from Sports Illustrated back in 2005 or you follow the Pac-10 pretty closely, the name Demetrius Walker probably means nothing to you.

As a 14 year old, Walker was widely considered the best eighth-grader in the country. He was bigger than everyone else, he was stronger than most high school seniors, and he was athletic enough that 360 dunks were easy. He was taken under the wing of Joe Keller, an AAU coach out in Southern California that was looking to ride the gravy train of the next Kobe Bryant.

Demetrius Walker will finish his collegiate career at New Mexico.
(photo credit: ASU.edu)

But Walker never hit the growth spurt. the 6'3", 175 lb eighth grader headed to Arizona State as a 6'3", 195 lb freshman. Now, a scholarship to play in the Pac-10 is nothing to shake a stick at. If your ability to play a sport means that you can get a free education, than you are pretty darn good at that sport.

Walker wasn't just supposed to play the sport, however. He was supposed to be a star. He was supposed to be one of the kids that uses college as a layover to the NBA. He wasn't supposed to see time in just 23 games, to only start a single game, and to average just four points for a team that was in the middle of the pack in a bad Pac-10. He wasn't supposed to be the kid that was forced to transfer because he couldn't crack the rotation and was being recruited over.

Why do I bring this up now?

George Dohrmann, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, has spent eight years getting to know Walker and Keller. And on October 5th, his book -- Play Their Hearts Out -- chronicling those eight years will be released. This week's SI will feature an excerpt from the book.

Five years after the nation's preeminent sports magazine crowned him the heir to the basketball throne, Walker will be returning to SI in an excerpt from a book that chronicled his fall from superstardom. The book's release and the publication of this week's SI also happen to correspond to the year that Walker is sitting out at New Mexico as a redshirt.

Ironic, ain't it?

This is why I have always been against the recruitment and analysis of kids before they reach high school. Why? Because they are still kids. They are children. Very few 14 year old males have hit puberty, or hit their growth spurt. The ones that have -- the kids that develop early and get their strength, their athleticism, their size, and their five o'clock shadow while still in middle school -- tend to be the ones that dominate at the level.

Demetrius Walker in just one example.

How about Taylor King? The one time UCLA commit and former Duke Blue Devil and Villanova Wildcat is now playing at an NAIA school now. Or maybe Derrick Caracter? Once considered the best prospect in the country, Caracter loafed his way out of Louisville, needing to resurrect his career at UTEP for the right to fight for a roster spot at the end of the Laker's bench.

Walker is a tremendous athlete that will become a college graduate for free while competing at one of the highest levels of the sport. He is far from a failure.

But I wonder how many people few him that way?

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Arizona State catches a break, gets Rihard Kuksiks back

Herb Sendek caught a huge break on Thursday as Rihards Kuksiks decided to return to Tempe for his senior season.

Kuksiks was the Sun Devils leading scorer last season, but there were concerns that the 6'6" Latvian sharpshooter would opt to play professionally in Europe instead of returning to school. He spent much of August in Europe competing for Latvia in the 2011 European Championships, which increased the speculation that he wasn't coming back.

Rihard Kuksiks has decided to return to Arizona State.
(photo credit: AZStarnet)

If Kuksiks had departed, it wouldn't have been a shock. Leaving college to, essentially, play in basketball's minor leagues abroad is slowly becoming a fad. Last summer, Nick Calathes, Terrence Oglesby, and David Huertas all left school for an overseas contract. This year, Manhattan's Rico Pickett and UC-Riverside's Kyle Austin have both headed abroad, while reports have Michael Dunigan going to Israel. Greedy Peterson is headed to Greece, but he was kicked out of school.

But Kuksiks is coming back, which means that Arizona State will have their best shooter. Kuksiks will help to keep the floor spread for slashers like Ty Abbott and Trent Lockett.

Arizona State has a really good group of player on their perimeter. There is scoring, there are shooters, there are athletes. When this club gets hot, they are going to be tough to beat.

When I wrote my Pac-10 preview a week ago, I did it under the impression that Kuksiks was gone. I picked Arizona State sixth. Now, that looks like it is too low.

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Conference Tournament Preview: Six teams that can steal a bid

Everyone loves the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Four straight days jam-packed with 12 hours of do-or-die college hoops is more than most people can handle.

But for junkies like us, the next 13 days are just as good, for it is when the true Madness takes place. Over the course of these two weeks, we whittle some 347 teams down to 30 conference champions (the Ivy doesn't have a tournament). Auto-bids will be won. Bubbles will be burst. Buzzers will be beaten. And most importantly, a 65 team bracket will be made.

In any tournament setting, one of the things that people enjoy watching the most is an upset. Some of the most memorable NCAA tournament moments are a direct result of David beating a Goliath. It is what makes the NCAA tournament so special and why so many people tune in.

Upsets in the conference tournaments are just as much fun to root for, unless you're a bubble team. If you are one of the schools on the cut line of the at-large pool, an upset in a conference tournament could be the difference between an NCAA trip and a bubble bursting. Ask St. Mary's, who lost out on a bid when Mississippi State made a run to the SEC tournament title last year.

Here are six teams that could steal a bid this season:


Loyola Marymount Lions: 16-14, 7-7 WCC

All season long, the talk in the WCC has been about 1) Gonzaga, 2) St. Mary's, and 3) Portland, especially in the early season. These days, the only time you expect to people bring up Loyola Marymount basketball is when they are talking about the late Hank Gathers. And while the Lions did post a marked improvement from last season, when they finished the year with just three wins, but a 7-7 team in the WCC shouldn't strike fear into the hearts of anyone.


That said, this is a team that has dealt with injuries all season long. Edgar Garibay has been out since early in the season with an ACL tear. Starters Ashley Hamilton and Jared Dubois have missed significant time, as have reserves Larry Davis and Given Kalipinde. Hell, even leading scorer Drew Viney missed back-to-back games earlier in the season. The good news is that when they are healthy, the Lions can play with anyone. They beat USC on the road, Notre Dame in South Bend, and most recently knocked off WCC champion Gonzaga in mid-February. The other good news? LMU is healthy now. They'll have their work cut out for them, as the five seed needs to win four straight games in the WCC.


St. Louis Billikens: 19-10, 10-5 A-10

There are six teams still on the bubble in the A-10, but despite being in fourth place in the league standings, the Billikens are not one of those teams. But if there is anything that St. Louis has taught us this season, its that they can play with any of the other teams in the conference. They've beaten physical teams like Dayton and Duquesne. They've beaten teams that want to spread the floor a bit more like URI and Xavier. Before losing two of three to Temple and Xavier (both were dogfights, no shame in either of those losses), the Billikens had won six in a row. They have a talented lead guard, a couple capable bodies inside, and a coach that knows what it take to advance in a tournament.


Missouri Valley

Thanks to the poor play of a number of bubble teams, Northern Iowa is all but a lock to make the tournament despite struggling down the stretch. But this is Arch Madness, where anything can happen, which means that the Panthers are by no means a lock to win the MVC tournament. There are three teams I can see with the potential to make a run through St. Louis. Wichita State all season long has been the second best team in the conference. They've struggled a bit of late, but this is a team with a legitimate scoring threat in the post and a couple quality back court players. Illinois State is dangerous because they have the best player in the league. Osiris Eldridge is good enough to take over a game (does anyone remember when he scored 21 after halftime in last year's final?), and Dinma Odiakosa and Lloyd Philips are both talented role players. The Redbirds are also playing their best basketball of the season, having won six in a row before dropping their season finale to Northern Iowa. Also keep an eye on Missouri State. They are the best offensive team in the conference, beat Tulsa and Nevada at home, won at St. Louis, and of their 11 losses, only one came by more than 11 points (18 points at Bradley).


VCU Rams: 20-8, 11-7

Like the MVC, the CAA is a quality conference with just one team that is deserving of an at-large bid (Old Dominion). So who can make a run to the CAA title? Northeastern finished second in the league, is a good defensive team, and has as good of a back court as you will find at this level. William & Mary has already knocked off Maryland, Richmond, and Wake Forest. They run a modified Princeton offense, spreading the floor and attacking gaps, which creates a lot of three point opportunities. If they get hot, they can make a run. But I like VCU.


The Rams may have lost Eric Maynor, but it doesn't mean this is a team devoid of talent. Larry Sanders is as long and athletic as anyone you will find in the country, and has been slowly developing into a star inside. Joey Rodriguez is a talented point guard, and Shaka Smart has a wealth of quality role players. The Rams will have their work cut out for them, as they have to win two games before getting a shot at ODU in the semi's. But keep this in mind while watching the CAA Tournament. VCU is 15-1 at home this season, with wins over Oklahoma, Nevada, URI, Richmond, and Old Dominion. VCU is in Richmond. The CAA Tournament is played in Richmond. Advantage Rams?


Arizona State Sun Devils: 20-9, 10-6 Pac-10

It feels weird saying this about a team that plays in a power conference, but lets remember that this year's Pac-10 is not a normal power conference. And let's face it - Cal is going to the tournament so long as they take care of business against Stanford and whoever they get in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. But Arizona State can play. They are running less of a Princeton offense and more of a motion style system that allows Herb Sendek to better utilize his talented perimeter players. They have a big bodied center and an underrated point guard. They have won six of their last eight overall and five of the last seven games they have played on the road. While the balance in the Pac-10 makes it obvious that any team can get hot and make a run through the tournament, I think Arizona State has the best chance.


New Mexico State Aggies: 19-9, 11-3 19-10, 11-4 WAC

New Mexico State likes to score. They push the ball, they spread the floor, and they allow their two talented scoring guards, Jahmar Young and Jonathon Gibson that average a combined 39.3 ppg, the freedom to score and create. The problem for the Aggies is that they don't have much depth and they don't play much defense, which makes them susceptible. New Mexico State has shown flashes, however. They have beaten both UTEP and Utah State this season, and they have won seven of their last eight games nine games (while writing this post, the Aggies lost to Nevada).
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Maybe the Pac-10 isn't so bad after all

We've heard it so much that it has become almost ingrained in our heads.

"The Pac-10 is down this season. They are one-bid league. No one can get an at-large."

Well, that has all but been proven false by Cal, whose steady ascension in the RPI has peaked at 22nd as of March 4th. The Bears don't have any great wins, but they have beaten four teams in the non-conference schedule that won or finished in second in their respective leagues, and also lost to the Big XII, Pac-10, Big East, and MWC regular season champ. They've lost five times in Pac-10 play, with four of the five coming on the road.

Jerome Randle and Cal will be dancing.
(photo credit: AP)

Now, Cal would be very lucky to get anything higher than a six or seven seed (and that is if they win the Pac-10 tournament), but the bottom line is that Cal is very close to locking up a bid.

Are they the only one?

Take a look at these resumes:

Team #1: 19-9, 10-7

• RPI: 55; SOS: 55
• Top 25/50/100: 2-2/2-2/6-5
  
• Best Wins: Texas A&M, Cal
• Worst Losses: Oregon, USC twice, UCLA
  

Team #2: 21-9, 11-6

• RPI: 54; SOS: 73
• Top 25/50/100: 0-5/1-5/3-7
  
• Best Wins: San Diego State
  
• Worst Losses: USC, UCLA
  

Team #3: 21-9, 9-6

• RPI: 59; SOS: 126
• Top 25/50/100: 0-2/1-3/6-4
• Best Wins: Old Dominion, Ole Miss twice
• Worst Losses: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Rider, Western Kentucky
  

Team #4: 20-9, 8-7

• RPI: 56; SOS: 64
• Top 25/50/100: 1-5/2-5/4-8
• Best Wins: Kansas State, UTEP
  
• Worst Losses: Arkansas
  

Care to take a guess at which team is which?

... I'll wait ...

Team #1 is Washington, team #2 is Arizona State. Team #3 Mississippi State, and #4 Ole Miss.

I know that there is so much more to selecting the field than those five statistics. I also realize that those numbers don't necessarily tell you the whole story about any team. Mississippi State hasn't played anyone and has beaten even fewer teams while losing to five teams with RPI's over 100. Washington hasn't beaten anyone that matter on the road. Arizona State has no marquee wins, and just one "quality" win. Ole Miss hasn't beaten an SEC opponent with a winning record in league play, and the only SEC team they've beaten with a winning record overall is Alabama.

But the bubble is exceedingly weak this year.

We know this.

Every team on the bubble has flaws.

Hell, Ole Miss and Mississippi State have flaws, but both of them have been getting at-large consideration.

My only question: are Washington and Arizona State really that far behind?

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The obligatory Friday morning "Pac-10 is no good" post

Pac-10 games are played on Thursdays and Saturday, and it has become routine to see articles every Friday and Sunday about how weak the Pac-10 is or how no one wants to win the Pac-10.

Its true.

And it amazes me.

Heading into last night, Cal was probably the favorite to win the league. The were tied for first with Arizona, finally getting healthy in their back court, and were arguably the most talented team in the conference.

But then the Bears went out and blew a 13 point lead and lost 66-63 to a USC team that has really struggled since finding out that they would not be allowed to participate in any postseason tournament. USC went on a 25-3 run over a ten minutes stretch spanning both halves. For the record, that's a USC team that has struggled to break 50 points in a game scoring at that rate.

This loss for the Bears came on the heels of blowing a late four point lead to Arizona on Saturday night.

That win for Arizona put them in a tie for first place despite all of their early season struggles and off-season departures. So did the Wildcats capitalize?

Nope.

They lost 81-75 at Washington.

UCLA and Arizona State did win, however, meaning that there is now a four-way tie atop the Pac-10, with Washington and USC a game back.

Apparently, Pac-10 teams are just good enough to make a run to the top, but aren't good enough to stay there.

Saturday will be a big day for the league. Cal will play at UCLA in a battle of first place teams, Arizona State heads to Washington where the Huskies have lost just one game, and Arizona gets Washington State on the road.

The conference is clearly not what it was even two years ago, but its tough to maintain a level of consistency with you have 21 players drafted in two years time from a league with only ten teams.

But no matter how poor the quality of play is, one this that is for certain is that this will be an entertaining race to follow.

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Friday's Shootaround: Texas Tech upsets Washington

Texas Tech 99, Washington 92 OT: Maybe the most exciting game of the year thus far in the season. Washington and Texas Tech were tied with 4.8 seconds left after Elston Turner missed two free throws. Mike Singletary grabbed the rebound, dribbled the length of the court, and hit a 20 foot runner at the buzzer for what looked like a last second win. The fans stormed the court, but after further review, Singletary didn't get the shot off in time.

Texas Tech fans stormed the court twice last night.
(photo credit: Examiner)

In the first half, Texas Tech opened up a nine point lead as Washington looked bad defensively. They struggled rotating, they were getting beat off the dribble, and they were allowing open jumpers. The second half was a different story, as the Huskies locked down a little more on the defensive end. After a 10-2 run tied the game at 60, the two teams basically traded baskets until there was under a minute left in the overtime period. After Venoy Overton fell asleep defensively, allowing Nick Okorie to cut back door for a lob, Tech went up 91-89. On the ensuing possession, John Roberson (who finished the game with 25 points) stole the ball and went the distance for a lay-up to take a 93-89 lead with 45 seconds left. After Thomas airballed a three, this one was all but over.

While this looks like a disastrous loss for Washington and the Pac-10, keep in mind that this Texas Tech team is still undefeated, and they have the look of a team that can at least make a run at an at-large bid. Roberson is solid at the point, and last night was no different as he went for 25 points and 7 assists. He made a number of big plays down the stretch, including hitting all 13 of his free throws. He severely outplayed U-Dub's duo of Isaiah Thomas and Abdul Gaddy. Mike Singletary is a scorer. He's not really a post player, not really a wing, but he can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim or finish in the mid range. But Singletary, who finished with 16 points and 12 boards, also showed the ability to mix it up under the rim. Combine those two with a couple big bodies, a couple of athletic wings, and a shooter off the bench in Brad Reese, and you have yourself a team.

Quincy Pondexter had 31 points to lead the Huskies.

Baylor 64, Arizona State 61: Tweety Carter took over late for the Bears. He scored 12 in a 13-0 Baylor run that gave the Bears a 52-47 lead with just under six minutes left. Rihard Kuksiks responded by scoring 11 straight ASU points to tie the game at 58. But Epke Udoh found Quincy Acy for a dunk with 49 seconds left, and 35 seconds later Carter hit two free for a 62-58 lead. Ty Abbott hit a three to cut it to one, but Udoh found LaceDarius Dunn for a lay-up for the final score. Carter finished with 27 points for the second straight game, hitting 7-9 from deep.

Texas 69, USC 50: Texas is still looking to put it together offensively, but the Longhorns still can play defense. They held USC into a 30% shooting night as they beat the Trojans in underwhelming fashion. Texas missed a number of easy looks (the one that comes to mind is seeing Dexter Pittman get "sprited" on dunk attempt where he didn't get an inch on the ground) and went 19-34 from the free throw line. Damion James had 19 points and 9 boards, while Dexter Pittman had 7 blocks for the Longhorns.

So in case you didn't notice, the Pac-10 went 0-3 tonight in the Big XII/Pac-10 Series, making them 0-4 on the season (which doesn't include Texas Tech's win over Oregon State earlier in the year). Everywhere you go on the blogs today, you are going to read about the Pac-10's struggles, and as we have already written about it, I'm not going to go into too much depth. But the one thing that intrigues me the most was brought up by Mike DeCourcy: how many first round picks are in that league? Klay Thompson will probably end up being a first round pick, but he needs to improve his strength and his all-around game to be a lottery pick. Malcolm Lee has really disappointed. Abdul Gaddy hasn't played up to his potential yet. Nic Wise, Jerome Randle, and Isaiah Thomas are all diminutive point guards. Maybe Quincy Pondexter or Derrick Williams? Coaching will only get you so far in college hoops. Talent is the great difference maker. Until Pac 10 coaches start recruiting better and bring more NBA level talent into the league, this could only be the start of the fall for the Pac-10.

One other notable score:

• Seton Hall 89, Hartford 56
  

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Monday's Pregame Beat

7:00 pm: UNC-Asheville @ Kentucky: The Wildcats have not been as good as advertised this season. They don't give consistent effort on the defensive end, and offensively they are either too selfish or don't quite understand the dribble-drive motion offense. Eric Bledsoe has been a turnover machine, and DeMarcus Cousins does not seem like he grasps the notion of team play. That said, isn't this what everyone expected? This is a team who's best players are mostly freshman. Give them some time and more experience against teams like Asheville. The Wildcats will get there.

7:00 pm: Penn State @ Virginia: The ACC/Big Ten Challenge kicks off in Charlottesville tonight.

9:00 pm: Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Arizona State: ASU has visions of the NCAA Tournament. With how weak the Pac-10 is, these are games they need to win and need to win big.

Other notable games:

• 7:00 pm: Colgate @ Syracuse
• 7:00 pm: St. Joe's @ Rider
• 7:00 pm: NJIT @ Seton Hall
  
• 7:30 pm: Mt. St. Mary's @ Georgetown
• 8:00 pm: Oakland @ Memphis
• 10:00 pm: St. Mary's @ San Jose State
  

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Friday Morning Shootaround: Washington Knocks Off Arizona State in OT

Justin Dentmon hit a three to tie the game at 59 with 1:53 left in the game, then hit a runner on the Huskies next possession to take the lead. But after grabbing a defensive rebound with under 30 seconds left, Dentmon was stripped by James Harden in the backcourt, and Harden went in for a dunk that sent the game to OT. In OT, Jon Brockman was too much, scoring on the Huskies first two possessions. James Harden fouled out on the next possession, and U-Dub rolled to a win and a 1 1/2 game lead in the Pac-10.

The Huskies can control their own destiny in regards to winning an outright Pac-10 title. They have two games left - at home to Arizona and Washington State - and if they win them both, they win the Pac-10 regular season title.

Brockman had 21 points and 11 boards, but was out played by Jeff Pendergraph (24 and 13). Dentmon and Isaiah Thomas both struggled in the win, combining to go 7-27, 2 -13 from deep, for just 27 points.

The rest of Thursday's games:

• Michigan 87, Purdue 78: DeShawn Sims scored 29 points and Manny Harris added 27 and 8 boards as the Wolverines kept their tournament hopes alive. They have two games left, at Wisconsin and at Minnesota before the Big Ten tournament, and may very well need to win both to get in. But the important part is that they are still alive. Robbie Hummel's back looks to be feeling better as he went for 24 points, but Purdue drops to two games back of Michigan State.
• Illinois 52, Minnesota 41: Illinois, who may very well be the toughest defensive team in the country, held Minnesota to 8-28 shooting in the second half and didn't allow the Gophers to score over the final 6:21 as they moved into second place in the Big Ten. For the game, Minnesota shot 32%, just 1-14 from deep, and had 20 turnovers (they also only got to the line three times). Mike Davis led three guys in double figures with 14 points and 11 boards.
• Cincinnati 65, West Virginia 61: Freshman Yancy Gates had his second career double-double, going for 22 and 11 which included the clinching free throw with 3.1 seconds left, as Cinci spoiled Bob Huggins return to Cincinnati. It was a huge win for the Bearcats tournament hopes, as West Virginia is a team ranked very high (15) in the RPI. With three games left, including one at Syracuse, Cinci probably needs to go 2-1 to get in, which is very possible. The Bearcat win left a log jam in the middle of the league standings. Providence is sixth at 9-7 while WVU, Syracuse, and Cinci are tied for seventh at 8-7, with Notre Dame sitting in tenth at 7-8. In the BET this year, fifth-eighth get a first round bye.
• Miami 62, Virginia 55: Jack McClinton scored just 11, but he hit a big three with 47 seconds left to give Miami a five point lead as the Hurricanes kept their tourney hopes alive.
• Butler 78, Youngstown State 57: Matt Howard had 25 points and 10 boards as Butler clinched at least a share of the Horizon League title.
• Xavier 68, St. Joe's 54: Derrick Brown and BJ Raymond both scored 18 points, and Brown also added 10 boards, as the Musketeers ended a three game losing streak on the road.
• Memphis 71, UAB 60: Memphis was down 50-49 late in the game before going on a 22-10 run to close it out and keep their C-USA winning streak alive. Oh, and Tyreke Evans did this:
  
  
  
• Wake Forest 85, NC State 78: Wake nearly blew a 15 point lead, but James Johnson saved the Demon Deacons by going for career-highs of 28 points and 18 boards.
• Cal 81, USC 78 OT: Cal managed to stay tied for second in the Pac-10 on the strength on 29 points from Patrick Christopher. 8 of those came in OT. Cal blew a 61-51 lead in the last 6:56 of regulation.
  
• UCLA 76, Stanford 71: Josh Shipp went for 24 points, hitting 9-12 from the field, as UCLA overcame a 14 points first half deficit to remain tied for second place in the Pac-10.
  
• Gonzaga 81, Santa Clara 73: The 'Zags got 29 points for Josh Heytvelt, who outplayed SC's big man John Bryant, to help Gonzaga stay undefeated in the WCC. Gonzaga was helped out by two late tech's because fans were throwing trash onto the court.
• La Salle 70, Temple 63: The Owls dropped a game back of Xavier in the A-10.
• Washington State 69, Arizona 53: Taylor Rochestie led Wazzu with 17 points as Arizona lost their second straight game.
• Utah State 82, Hawaii 62
• St. Mary's 62, Pepperdine 49
  

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Thursday Lay-up Lines: Battle atop the Pac-10, again

Last week, it was Washington playing UCLA on a Thursday. UCLA won, but went on the lose to Wazzu, meaning that tonight's game between Washington (20-7, 11-4) and Arizona State (21-5, 10-4) would be for first place in the Pac-10. The Pac-10 is as muddled as any league in the country. There are four teams within a game (in the loss column) of first place. Washington has three home games, and if they win out they will be the outright Pac-10 regular season champs. Arizona State lost to Washington at home in their first meeting 84-71, but hasn't lost since, winning five straight.

Isaiah Thomas and Justin Dentmon combined for 55 points in the first meeting, so if the Sun Devils want to steal this one on the road, they are going to need slow down the Huskies backcourt.

There are a lot of other key games on tonight as well:

• 7:00 PM: Minnesota (20-7, 8-7) @ Illinois (22-6, 10-5): Minnesota is probably in the tournament right now, but a win here would likely lock up a bid. Illinois is not only playing for seeding in the NCAA tournament, but the Big Ten tourney as well. A loss would put them just a game up on the four teams vying for the fourth and fifth spots.
• 7:00 PM: Youngstown State (11-16, 7-9) @ Butler (23-4, 13-3): The Bulldogs avoided dropping out of the top 25 with a convincing win at Davidson. Prior to that, they had lost three of five.
• 7:00 PM: Xavier (22-5, 10-3) @ St. Joe's (14-12, 7-5): St. Joe's was alone in first place in the A-10 before a recent four game losing streak. The Hawks could give X trouble inside, as Ahmad Nivins might be the best big man you haven't seen play.
• 7:00 PM: La Salle (14-12, 5-7) @ Temple (17-9, 9-3): Temple looks to keep pace with Xavier atop the A-10 (in the loss column). Both teams are now a game up on Rhode Island and Dayton.
• 7:00 PM: West Virginia (19-8, 8-6) @ Cincinnati (17-10, 7-7): This is a huge game for Cincinnati. Not only is it a homecoming for Bob Huggins, but it is a game they almost need to win to get into the dance. Winning at Syracuse will be tough, and beating Seton Hall and South Florida to get to .500 in the Big East probably won't cut it, so tonight is probably their best opportunity to play their way in. WVU is a good match-up for them as well. Both teams play a very physical, defensive style of ball where they get a lot of their offensive off of forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass.
  
• 8:00 PM: NC State (15-10, 5-7) @ Wake Forest (20-5, 7-5): Wake Forest has a bad habit of losing to the bottom of the ACC.
• 8:00 PM: Miami FL (16-10, 5-8) @ Virginia (9-14, 3-9): Miami needs to win out to have a chance at an at-large.
• 9:00 PM: Memphis (24-3, 12-0) @ UAB (19-8, 9-3): Remember what happened last time Memphis played at UAB? Chris Douglas-Roberts hit a buzzer beater, and the UAB fans got into it with the Memphis players (video montage here - lyrics very NSFW).
• 9:00 PM: Purdue (21-6, 10-4) @ Michigan (17-11, 7-8): Purdue is looking to stay within a game of Michigan State atop the Pac-10, while Michigan is simply trying to stay on the bubble.
• 9:00 PM: Arizona (18-9, 8-6) @ Washington State (14-13, 6-9): Arizona snapped a seven game losing streak when they lost to Arizona State on Sunday. If they can split this weekend, they may have played their way into the tournament, which would be an impressive feat for Russ Pennell's team.
• 9:05 PM: Hawaii (13-13, 5-8) @ Utah State (25-3, 12-1): The Aggies probably need to win their conference tourney to get into the dance at this point.
• 10:30 PM: USC (16-10, 7-7) @ Cal (20-7, 9-5): USC might need to win out to earn a bid at this point. Cal, on the other hand, is more than likely in (as long as they avoid a collapse) but with the west seeming very weak this season, winning out for them could earn a top four or five seed.
• 10:30 PM: UCLA (20-7, 9-5) @ Stanford (15-10, 4-10): UCLA=Cal.
  
• 10:30 PM: St. Mary's (22-5, 8-4) @ Pepperdine (8-20, 5-7): What is more disappointing - seeing Patty Mills break his hand, meaning that there is a good chance the Gaels don't make the tourney; or seeing Dom James break his foot and knowing that Marquette probably won't be making a deep run this year?
• 11:00 PM: Gonzaga (21-5, 12-0) @ Santa Clara (14-15, 6-6): Gonzaga has already locked up the WCC crown, but SC is still playing for tournament seeding. If you are up, be sure to tune in to see SC big man John Bryant, who is another excellent big man that flies under the radar.
  

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Who is the Best in the West?

ED. NOTE: This column was written prior to the games on Thursday night. Specifically, before Washington-UCLA.

The best in the west. Usually, that distinction goes to the best team in the Pac-10.

It would make sense, right? It is the only one of the big six conferences with teams west of the Plains (and Colorado doesn't count until they actually matter).

But can you really claim that Washington, a team that is 10-3 in the Pac-10 and has a loss to Portland on their resume, is the best team in the west?

There are a number of ways to judge who the best team is - record, RPI, KenPom, rankings - so let's break it down and see if we can't come up with a "Best of the West". For this particular exercise, we are considering the Pac-10, WCC, MWC, and WAC as teams in the west.

- Best Record: Utah State (24-2, 12-1 WAC)

The Aggies have a gaudy record and a solid RPI (34), but for the most part it is against fluff (their SOS is 172). They have only played two games against teams ranked higher than 88th in the RPI (beating Utah and losing to BYU) and have a grand total of six games against the RPI top 100 (including BYU and Utah). In fact, of Utah State's 24 wins, 14 have come against teams ranked outside the RPI top 200. So while the Aggies have proven that they can hang with some of the best in Utah out west, I still have yet to see a reason why I should believe this is more than just the best mediocre team in the country. This is where I would say they have a chance to make a statement against a very good St. Mary's team on Saturday in Bracket Busters, but unless Patty Mills makes a miraculous recovery in the next 48 hours, a victory would just get chalked up as another mediocre win over a mediocre team.

- Best RPI: Utah (19-7, 10-2 MWC)

Yup, Utah has the best RPI of any team out west. They are sitting pretty at 11, while the next closest is Washington at 21. I guess they may deserve it. They are currently atop the Mountain West at 10-2 with a game and a half lead over BYU and SDSU. While you may be thinking to yourself "oh, its just the Mountain West", realize that the MWC might be better than the SEC this year. They have a very realistic chance to get five teams into the dance (there are nine total in the league). Utah? They do have a pretty nice team. Luke Nevill is a legit 7-footer with a legit game (17.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.7 bpg) who combines with Shaun Green to form a formidable front court. In the back court, they have a solid quartet of guards who can all shoot it (except for Carlon Brown - he just dunks). Utah does have a couple good wins - they beat Gonzaga and LSU (by 30) out of conference and SDSU and BYU in conference - but it is their losses that bug me. Not the one against Oklahoma. Not the loss against Cal, or Utah State, or UNLV either. Utah has, however, lost to Big Sky powerhouse Idaho State, who is all of 207th in the RPI. That isn't even their worst loss. The Utes worst loss doesn't get factored into the RPI. Why? Because Southwest Baptist doesn't play in D1. Can you really be considered "Best of the West" when you have lost to D2 team?

Luke Nevill is a large man.
(photo credit: AP/Kenny Crookston)

- Best KenPom Rating: UCLA (19-6, 8-4 Pac-10)

Don't know what the KenPom rating system is? Read this. Essentially, he does some crazy math with efficiency ratings to determine who you would expect to win on a given night. If you're ranked higher than a team you should beat them (did I get that right?). Regardless, he is good at what he does. His top four, in order, at the end of last season: Kansas, Memphis, UCLA, UNC (look familiar). So does that mean UCLA is the best team out west? Personally, I am not that high on UCLA this year. For starters, they are not as good defensively as they have been in the past. The biggest issue for me is the lack of a post presence. I've said this before, but as hard as Alfred Aboya works, it isn't going to make him any bigger. Their four? Nikola Dragovic, who spends most of his court time doing his best Jason Kapono impression. Well, I lied. That isn't my biggest issue with UCLA. My biggest issue is their utter lack of impressive wins. They are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 (losing to ASU twice and Washington once). They have just four top 50 wins - two against USC, one against Arizona before Arizona got good, and one against Cal when Jerome Randle was slowed by a hip injury. And losses to Texas and Michigan are looking much worse than they did originally.

- Best Ranking: Arizona State (20-5, 9-4 Pac-10)

In each of the three major polls (and yes I am including the BlogPoll as a major poll, and it may or may not be because I have a vote), ASU has the highest ranking. In the coaches poll, they are 11th and in the AP and BlogPoll, they are 14th (for some reason, the coaches have a much higher opinion of the Pac-10 than the AP does - ASU is 11th vs. 14th, UCLA is 15th vs. 20th, and Washington is 19th vs. 22nd). While I still have a bit of hesitation anointing the Sun Devils the best team in the west, one thing I am sure of is that James Harden is the best player in the west (Patty Mills would give him a run, if healthy). Harden is really the only offensive threat on a team with a legitimate shot at winning the Pac-10. That, however, is not a good thing because it make the Sun Devils so one dimensional. All you need to do is slow down Harden, and Arizona State is going to struggle (see USC, Jan. 15th). While that is much easier said than done (ask Oregon, Feb. 5th), having one lock-down perimeter defender could be enough to upset the Sun Devils. The good news for ASU? In their last three games (against Oregon State, UCLA, and USC), Harden has averaged just 12.3 ppg. Arizona State has won all three.

James Harden put 36 on Oregon earlier this year.
(photo credit: AP/Chris Pietsch)

- Best ... Other Team?: Gonzaga (19-5, 10-0 WCC)

The 'Zags looked destined to be a Final Four team after they ran through to Old Spice Classic, beating Oklahoma State and Tennessee. Then, they lost four of five, including a game to Portland at home. The 'Zags ended that skid with a convincing road win against Tennessee, their second win against the Vols on the season, which sparked a nine game winning streak, putting the 'Zags back on the map as a legitimate threat. That thought ended with an 18 point beatdown in Spokane at the hands of Memphis. So which team is the real Gonzaga? Who knows. They are one of the most talented teams in the country, there is no doubt about that. But I just am not convinced that they can play well together, especially with Jeremy Pargo at the point. Nothing against him as a player (he can flat out ball and is one of the most fun players in the country to watch), but he isn't the kind of point guard that this team needs.

- Who is missing?: Washington (19-6, 10-3 Pac-10)

Remember earlier, when I said this:

The best in the west. Usually, that distinction goes to the best team in the Pac-10. It would make sense, right? It is the only one of the big six conferences with teams west of the Plains (and Colorado doesn't count until they actually matter). But can you really claim that Washington, a team that is 10-3 in the Pac-10 and has a loss to Portland on their resume, is the best team in the west?

Jon Brockman patrols the paint for Washington.
(photo credit: Oregon Live)

Well, the answer is yes. Yes you can. Washington has already beaten UCLA and Arizona State this year. They are leading the Pac-10. But more importantly, they look like the best team. I really like the make-up of the Huskies roster. They have a dynamic scoring guard (Isaiah Thomas); a shooter/scorer on the perimeter (Justin Dentmon); a steady ball-control point guard (Venoy Overton); a bruiser in the paint (Jon Brockman); athletic wings (Justin Holiday, Quincy Pondexter); and a big, long, active center to play along side Brockman (Matthew Bryan-Amaning). The biggest worry I have is maturity and experience. This is a young team, and the veterans have not had much success in their careers. But Lorenzo Romar has. He reached two Sweet 16's ('05, '06) and won a Pac-10 tournament.

Maybe I am grasping at straws here. Maybe the rest of the west is just not that good this year. But here it is. My pick for "Best of the West". Continue reading...

Friday Morning Shootaround

The biggest WTF of the night came in South Bend as Notre Dame, the same Notre Dame that had lost seven straight and fallen completely out of the NCAA tournament discussion, whipped Louisville by 33 points, 90-57. Luke Harangody had 32 points and 17 boards one game after going for just 5 points and 1 rebound against UCLA. Kyle McAlarney and Ryan Ayers, who had both been struggling with their jump shots, combined for 40 points on 10-16 shooting from three.

Notre Dame shot 54% against Louisville's stingy defense, the highest shooting percentage the Cardinals have given up all season. The Irish also won the battle of the boards 48-28. Notre Dame finally looked like the team that had gotten as high as #7 in the polls earlier in the season, and if they can continue to play like this the rest of the year, maybe the NCAA tournament isn't out of reach just yet.

As for Louisville, it is tough to say what exactly happened. They are beat up right now (Terrence Williams has a bum wrist and Samardo Samuels just had his teeth knocked out), but they were never anywhere close to in this game. An 11-0 run early on put Notre Dame up 13 just nine minutes into the game.

The rest of Thursday's scores you need to know about:

• Arizona State 74, UCLA 67: The Sun Devils completed the season sweep of UCLA, knocking off the Bruins at home 74-67. After Darren Collison went in for a lay-up to give the Bruins a 67-66 lead, James Harden (who finished the game with 15 points, 11 assists, but 8 turnovers) drove and somehow found Derek Glasser in the corner for a three that gave ASU a 69-67 lead. On the next possession, Collison drove the lane and scored, but was called for a charge and had the basket waved off. This win moves ASU a game behind Washington and a half game behind UCLA in the Pac-10 standings. While UCLA isn't quite what they have been in recent years, sweeping the Bruins is still quite a statement for a Sun Devil team that doesn't have the best resume. Josh Ship had 16 for the Bruins, while Jeff Pendergraph had 14 and 9 for the Sun Devils.
  
• Illinois 60, Northwestern 59: Demetri McCamey scored 21 points as the Illini came back from a late 57-43 deficit for the win. Trent Meachem scored 12 of his 15 in the final five minutes, and McCamey banked in a jumper with 2.9 seconds left to give Illinois the win.
• Gonzaga 72, St. Mary's 70: Down six with less than a minute left, St. Mary's nearly came back to beat the 'Zags, who couldn't hit free throws down the stretch. Senior Carlin Hughes hit a couple of threes, including a leaner he banked in from the wing to cut the lead to 71-70. The Gaels had the ball back at mid-court with 5.2 seconds left, but threw the ball away on the inbounds pass. Matt Bouldin, who is quietly having a phenomenal season, finished with 21 points and Josh Heytvelt added 20 and 10.
• Washington 79, Oregon State 60: Justin Dentmon continued his hot play as he led the Huskies with 28 points and 7 dimes. Washington once again is all alone atop the Pac-10 standings.
• Utah State 62, Idaho 53
• Siena 93, Manhattan 69
• Temple 61, St. Joseph's 59
• Davidson 78, Wofford 61
• Washington State 67, Oregon 38
• Arizona 83, USC 76
  

Continue reading...

Thursday Lay-up Lines

Tonight's college hoops action is dominated by the West Coast. The biggest game of night pits UCLA (19-4, 8-2) at Arizona State (18-5, 7-4). UCLA, as the best team in the Pac-10, is in the running for a #1 seed come March, but it is going to take the Bruins winning games like this on the road. While they are sixth in the coach's poll, the Bruins are 11th in the AP and the mid-20's in the RPI. The Sun Devils won the first match-up against the Bruins at Pauley Pavilion in OT, but they have been inconsistent in league play (the weeks ago they were swept at home by the Washingtons). The biggest problem is that Arizona State's offense has really struggled to put up points. In their last seven games, the Sun Devils have not scored more than 71, and four times scored 55 or less (including 49 twice). The problem? Teams are really starting to key on James Harden on the perimeter as Derek Glasser, Ty Abbott, and Rihard Kuksiks struggle.

While I still have my doubts about the Bruins, they have really started to play better basketball of late. In the four games since their loss to U-Dub, UCLA has beaten Cal, Stanford, USC, and Notre Dame by an average of 22 points. A big reason for that has been the improved play of Jrue Holiday, who is averaging 12.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 5.8 apg, and 2.0 apg. Holiday is an excellent defender, and I see him giving Harden fits. But where ASU is going to have an advantage is in the post with Jeff Pendergraph. Alfred Aboya has really grown on me as a player, but he is still undersized for the Pac-10 (UPDATE: Drew Gordon may miss the game with back spasms).

I think UCLA pulls this one out on the road. Here is the rest of the night's games you should care about:

• 7:00 PM: Louisville (18-4, 9-1) @ Notre Dame (12-10, 3-7): The Irish need this game, and may need to win out if they want to avoid the NIT. It will be a tough one for ND, because they struggle against ... everyone?
  
• 7:00 PM: Manhattan (14-10, 8-6) @ Siena (19-6, 13-1)
• 7:00 PM: Temple (13-9, 5-3) @ St. Joe's (14-8, 7-1): With Xavier's loss to Dayton last night, St. Joe's is now all alone in first place in the A-10.
• 7:00 PM: Davidson (20-4, 13-1) @ Wofford (13-13, 7-6)
• 9:00 PM: Illinois (19-5, 7-4) @ Northwestern (13-8, 4-6)
• 10:00 PM: Oregon (6-17, 0-11) @ Washington State (12-11, 4-7)
• 10:05 PM: Utah State (23-1, 11-0) @ Idaho (10-12, 4-5)
• 10:30 PM: USC (15-7, 6-4) @ Arizona (16-8, 6-5): The Trojans and the Wildcats are both right on the bubble and right in the middle of the Pac-10 as most pundits have both teams either in their last four in or last four out. Both teams, however, has massive problems. UA is essentially a three man team, while USC has a ton of injury issues (Leonard Washington, Dwight Lewis, Keith Wilkinson, and now Marcus Johnson have missed significant time). I like Arizona getting it done at home.
• 10:30 PM: Oregon State (10-12, 4-7) @ Washington (17-6, 8-3)
• 11:00 PM: Gonzaga (17-5, 8-0) @ St. Mary's (19-4, 6-3): Think about how much more luster this match-up had two weeks ago when these two teams played.
  

Continue reading...

Saturday Roundup

Great day for college hoops fans as there are some fantastic games on today. So if you're like me and you have no desire to set foot into the arctic air that has descended upon us, find a good spot on your couch and make your beer run early - the games commence at noon. My biggest problem today? I can only watch/record two games at a time.

There are five games on today between ranked teams:

• 12:00 PM: Notre Dame (12-4, 3-2) @ Syracuse (16-2, 4-1): Syracuse went into Georgetown sitting pretty at 4-0 in the league. The problem? Heading into that game, their opponent's record in Big East play was 1-14. They found out the hard way that not every night in the Big East is going to be that easy, as Georgetown jumped all over the Orange early, going up by as much as 20 in the first half and never looking back.
  
  What concerns me for this game is that Syracuse got beat because they couldn't defend the three. Georgetown was 12-21 on the game, but they hit 10 of their last 13 after starting out the game 2-8. The issue was just the Syracuse wasn't getting out on shooters. A lot of people say that you cannot play zone against a team that can shoot three's. That's not true. If you move well and communicate where shooters are (and when they are cutting through) in the zone, you can defend them. There are two things that the 'Cuse will have to do. First, ALWAYS know where Kyle McAlarney (and to a lesser extent Ryan Ayers as well) is. He can stroke it from 28 feet with consistency if you let him get going. The second is to make sure you always have a body on Luke Harangody. The big fella does a pretty good job on the glass, but also has been becoming much more of a jump shooter of late. You don't want to lose track of him.
  
  I think 'Gody will have a big game today (I mean, doesn't he always have a big game though?). He usually excels when he plays against big men that are strong and stocky as opposed to tall, long, and athletic (that's why he torched Samardo Samuels for 28 points in 35 minutes and was shut down by Terrence Jennings, going score less in the last 10 minutes, when to Irish played Louisville).
  
  For the Orange, the key is simply going to be to play with energy and emotion. I could go on and on about how Jonny Flynn needs to be a play maker; or that Paul Harris needs to capitalize on his size and strength advantage at the three; or how Syracuse should be able to control the glass. But the fact of the matter is that none of it makes any difference if the Orange come out and play the way they did against the Hoyas. The Orange are a very good team this year. They have talent, athleticism, shooting, size, a great coach, etc., but all season long they have struggled to get up for games at the start. I'm going to put this onus on the Carrier Dome fans today. That place, 30,000 strong, needs to be rocking today. If it is, I don't see anyway that the Orange can come out flat.
  
  I think the 'Cuse gets it done at home on the strength of a 25 and 12 game from Paul Harris.
• 1:30 PM: Georgetown (12-3) @ Duke (15-1): Greg Monroe almost went to Duke instead of Georgetown. Can you image the Devils if they had Monroe to pair up front with Singler? Scary...
  
  OK, back to the previewing. This is going to be a tough game for Georgetown. Duke gets all over you defensively, playing a switching man-to-man where they get up in the ball-handler starting in the back court. They start their defense out so far that it makes things very difficult for a team trying to run their offense. And what is Georgetown's MO offensively? Running through their offense.
  
  That said, if Georgetown's guards can be strong with the ball, I think the Hoyas have a shot at this. Duke loves to get out and pressure the wings. Georgetown kills teams that do that with back door cuts. The key for Duke, like it has been all season, is to put enough pressure on the ball that Georgetown cannot get into position to make that pass.
  
  I think the Hoyas should also run a lot of their stuff through Greg Monroe. They need to use him as a pressure release. Brian Zoubek as been much better this season, but there is no way he should be able to guard Greg Monroe 20 feet from the basket. If he does, Monroe should get lay-ups all day long.
  
  I think Georgetown is going to have to go zone against Duke for one reason - I do not see how they are going to be able to stop Gerald Henderson. Henderson has been playing the best basketball of his life over the last seven games, averaging 17.4 ppg and shooting 10-19 from three. He's shooting 43% from three on the year, and combined with his athleticism and how high his confidence is going to be right now, I don't see anyone on the Hoyas that can defend him. Jessie Sapp and Chris Wright are too small. Austin Freeman is too slow. Maybe Jason Clark, but I'd hesitate putting a freshman on him right now.
  
  I like the Hoyas this year, but the last time they played a team that defended like this (Pitt) they got run off the floor (more of a case of rebounding problems than anything, but still). I see Duke getting it done at Cameron.
• 3:30 PM: Wake Forest (15-0, 2-0) @ Clemson (16-0, 2-0): Two of the last three undefeated teams face off. The biggest issue I see is Wake's size - how is Clemson going to match-up with them on the inside? And it is more than just how big they are. James Johnson and Al-Farouq Aminu both can step out and play on the perimeter as well as scoring in the paint. Trevor Booker is an excellent player, but he is all of 6'7". Johnson and Aminu are 6'9" and absurdly athletic. Chas McFarland and Tony Woods are both 7-footers.
  
  The key for Clemson is going to be their defense. They need to pressure the Wake Forest guards and force them into turnovers or get them playing too quickly and ignoring the bigs. Basically, what Clemson needs to do is try and keep the big guys from Wake from getting involved. The Tigers are pretty good at doing that. They force 18 turnovers a game.
  
  There may not be anyone in the country playing better basketball than Jeff Teague. In his last three games, the PG is scoring 31 ppg. He's shooting 55% from three, but he isn't really a three point shooter. He's a penetrator, and he can get to the rim just about whenever he pleases.
  
  I know that this game is at home for Clemson, but I just think Wake is too big, too good, and playing too well right now for the Tigers to beat them.
• 3:45 PM: Arizona State (14-3, 3-2) @ UCLA (14-2, 4-0): The Sun Devils are coming off of a loss at USC on Thursday in which James Harden was held without a field goal and to just four points by the Trojans' Daniel Hackett. My money would be on Harden being just a bit fired up for this game.
  
  UCLA sputtered a bit earlier in the season, losing to Texas and to Michigan, but they have really picked up their play of late, looking much more fluid on the offensive end. They are sitting at 4-0 in the Pac-10, with three of those wins coming on the road (albeit two were against the Oregon schools). A large part of that success can be attributed to Darren Collison. In Pac-10 play, Collison has looked like an all-american. He's averaged 17 ppg and 6.3 apg, while turning it over just five times.
  
  This is a huge game for Arizona State. If they lose, it means that they will be three games (in the loss column) behind Cal and UCLA in the Pac-10 standings, both teams that they have already lost too. But more importantly, it will say something about this team. Good teams win games on the road. The Sun Devils are currently 1-2 on the road in conference, with the only win coming against Stanford.
  
  If ASU wants to win, they are going to need a big game out of Jeff Pendergraph. UCLA is small up front, and Pendergraph is one of the best big men in the conference. UCLA has even made a change to their starting line-up, bringing James Keefe off the bench and starting Nikola Dragovic. Dragovic may be tall, be he is essentially a perimeter player and a jump shooter, which means that it should be that much easier for Pendergraph on the block.
  
  James Harden is a great player. There is no doubt about that. But I'm starting to have my doubts about the rest of the Sun Devils. Rihard Kuksiks, Derek Glasser, Ty Abbott - I have yet to really see anything from these guys that makes me believe they are good enough to make the Sun Devils the team to beat out west. I think UCLA takes care of business at home here.
• 6:00 PM: Pittsburgh (16-0, 4-0) @ Louisville (12-3, 3-0): There is a very good chance we could be down to just one undefeated team left in the country when it is all said and done today. The Cardinals have been playing their best basketball of the season of late, as they have beaten Villanova and Notre Dame in their last two games. Clearly, the most important (and unenviable) task today will be to keep DeJuan Blair and company off of the offensive glass. As a team, the Panthers average over 16 offensive rebounds per game (with 6.3 of those coming from Blair). They are not a great offensive team, and at times their best offense seems to be throw up a shot and go get the rebound.
  
  The matchup between Sam Young and Terrence Williams may pit the two best athletes in the country. Young has developed into such a good scorer. His perimeter shot is dangerous (38% from three), but he can also put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, using his size to bully past a smaller defender. T-Will is a pretty strong guy himself, and should be able to handle Young defensively. T-Will, offensively, needs to be able to get into the lane and create. He is really the only player that is going to be able to against this tough Pitt defense, and Louisville has a tough time offensively when they can't get the ball into the paint and kick it out. When they don't, they end up forcing a lot of contested three's.
  
  There are two keys for Louisville if they plan on winning this game. Blair and Young are going to get their's. There isn't much anyone can do about that other than to make it tough for them. What Louisville needs to do is limit all the role players. Jermaine Dixon has been playing much better of late, scoring 17 in Pitt's win over South Florida. Gilbert Brown is an athletic play maker who can put up some points in a hurry. Ashton Gibbs and Bran Wanamaker are really good three-point shooters. If Louisville wants to hand Pitt their first loss, they cannot allow someone other than the big three to go off.
  
  The other thing Louisville needs to do is keep Levance Fields out of the paint. He is averaging 7.0 apg this year, and he creates so many easy baskets with his penetration. If you make him a scorer/jump shooter, Louisville has a much better chance of winning.
  
  All that said, I still think Pitt gets it done. I think their defense is going to wreak havoc on Louisville, who may not get a good shot the entire game.
  

So in case you missed it, my predictions for the five marquee games were Syracuse, Duke, Wake, UCLA, and Pitt.

There are a lot of other very good games being played today. Let's break it down by conference:

Big Ten:

• 4:00 PM: Illinois (15-2, 3-1) @ Michigan State (14-2, 4-0): The Illini have flown under the radar all season long, but Michigan State is rounding into shape and looks to once again be the favorite in the Big Ten.
  
• 6:00 PM: Penn State (13-5, 2-3) @ Indiana (5-11, 0-4): The Nittany Lions could use this win to get back on track.
• 8:00 PM: Ohio State (12-3, 2-2) @ Michigan (13-4, 3-2): The Buckeyes have really fallen off this year after a great start. I don't see them matching up well at all with Michigan's zone because they don't have much point guard play.
  

Pac-10:

• 2:00 PM: Washington State (10-6, 2-2) @ Oregon (6-11, 0-4)
• 8:00 PM: Cal (15-2, 4-0) @ Stanford (11-3, 1-3): Stanford has come back to earth, but Cal cannot fall asleep in this rivalry game that features Mike Montgomery's homecoming to Stanford.
  
• 8:00 PM: Arizona (11-6, 2-3) @ USC (11-5, 2-2): If USC wins tonight, are they relevant again?
• 10:00 PM: Washington (12-4, 3-1) @ Oregon State (6-9, 1-4): All of a sudden it looks like Oregon State is a tough place to play.
  

Big East:

• 12:00 PM: South Florida (6-10, 1-3) @ West Virginia (12-4, 1-2)
• 2:00 PM: Cincinnati (10-6, 1-3) @ DePaul (8-9, 0-4)
• 9:00 PM: Marquette (15-2, 4-0) @ Providence (11-5, 3-1): If the Friars are serious about making a run at an NCAA berth, these are the games they need to win.
  

ACC:

• 12:00 PM: Maryland (12-4, 1-1) @ Florida State (14-3, 1-1): Florida State's huge this year, and the Terps don't have the horses to match-up inside.
• 12:00 PM: Georgia Tech (9-7, 0-3) @ North Carolina State (9-5, 0-2): Can Derrick Favors suit up now for the Yellow Jackets? All kidding aside, great match-up of front courts as Gani Lawal and company take on Ben McCauley and Brandon Costner.
• 4:00 PM: Boston College (13-5, 1-2) @ Virginia Tech (11-5, 1-1): Man, do the Eagles need a win badly.
  
• 9:00 PM: Miami FL (13-3, 2-1) @ UNC (15-2, 1-2): The first college gameday of the year! The Hurricanes are better than they are getting credit for right now, but I don't think anyone is going to be beating the Heels are home anytime soon.
  

Big XII:

• 1:30 PM: Iowa State (11-5, 1-1) @ Missouri (13-3, 1-1): Craig Brackins vs. DeMarre Carroll - should be fun to watch:
• 1:45 PM: Oklahoma State (12-3, 1-0) @ Baylor (13-3, 1-1): Both teams have great back court play and are small up front. Is OK State for real this year, even without Ibrahima Thomas?
• 2:00 PM: Oklahoma (16-1, 2-0) @ Texas A&M (15-2, 1-1): The Aggies have a chance to prove their worth against the Sooners.
• 3:30 PM: Kansas (12-4, 1-0) @ Colorado (8-7, 0-1): How is this game on ABC?
• 4:00 PM: Texas (12-4, 1-1) @ Texas Tech (10-6, 0-1): Doesn't exactly have the hype of the football game, does it?
• 6:00 PM: Kansas State (11-5, 0-2) @ Nebraska (11-4, 1-1): K-State really needs a win.
  

SEC:

• 2:00 PM: Alabama (11-5, 1-1) @ Auburn (10-6, 0-2)
• 2:00 PM: Arkansas (12-3, 0-2) @ Florida (15-2, 2-0): The Razorbacks desperately need a win to try and recapture the momentum they had after beating Texas and Oklahoma.
• 4:00 PM: LSU (13-3, 1-1)@ Mississippi (10-6, 1-1): LSU needs to prove they can win on the road.
• 6:00 PM: South Carolina (12-3, 1-1) @ Tennessee (10-5, 1-1): Tennessee needs to right their ship soon. Hopefully, they can keep Devan Downey under 50.
  
• 8:00 PM: Vanderbilt (12-4, 1-1) @ Mississippi State (12-5, 2-0): The Bulldogs all of a sudden look like a threat in the SEC.
  

The rest of the nation:

• 12:00 PM: Northeastern (11-5, 6-0) @ Hofstra (10-7, 2-4)
• 12:00 PM: Northern Iowa (11-6, 5-1) @ Drake (13-5, 4-2)
• 2:00 PM: Butler (15-1, 6-0) @ Illinois-Chicago (9-7, 2-4)
• 2:00 PM: James Madison (12-4, 4-2) @ George Mason (13-3, 6-0)
• 3:00 PM: Davidson (13-3, 6-0) @ Georgia Southern (5-8, 2-3)
• 3:30 PM: Siena (13-5, 7-0) @ Fairfield (12-6, 5-2)
• 4:00 PM: BYU (14-2, 2-0) @ New Mexico State (10-7, 1-1)
• 7:00 PM: Dayton (14-2, 1-1) @ Duquense (12-4, 3-0)
• 8:00 PM: UAB (10-6, 1-1) @ Memphis (13-3, 3-0): Remember when this game mattered?
• 8:00 PM: San Francisco (8-10, 0-3) @ Gonzaga (11-4, 2-0)
• 8:00 PM: Pepperdine (4-14, 1-1) @ St. Mary's (16-1, 3-0)
• 9:05 PM: Boise State (12-4, 3-1) @ Utah State (16-1, 4-0)

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Monday Morning Shootaround

The biggest game of the day on Sunday was clearly Boston College going into Chapel Hill and getting a win against UNC. The final score was 85-78, but for the most part it wasn't even that close in the second half. BC did an amazing job the entire game of limiting the opportunities that UNC got to run their break. The Tar Heel fast break is truly unbelievable, which they proved when they started scoring in transition off of made shots.

So how was BC able to slow down the Heels? It was simple - they got a lot of offensive rebounds and they didn't turn the ball over. The two easiest times to pick up transition baskets are off of defensive rebounds and off of turnovers. BC only turned the ball over 10 times (and a number of those were "good" turnovers, meaning that the Eagles simply threw the ball out of bounds or picked up a five second violation, which forces UNC to inbound the ball), they shot 46% from the field, and they gathered 14 offensive rebounds. UNC is no where near as good in the half court as they are when they score in transition, which is why it was so important for BC to limit their fast break opportunities and force the Heels to go against a set defense as much as possible.

The Heels also could not hit a shot down the stretch. In the second half, they shot just 29% from the floor (38% for the game). They were 5-12 from the free throw line in the final three minutes, and in that time missed six or seven open three's, including three in the span of about 15 seconds on one possession. BC, who took a six point lead into halftime, was up 78-63 when the Heels went on a 15-4 run, cutting the lead to 82-78 with under a minute left. Between the missed free throws and the missed three's, UNC cost themselves a chance to complete the comeback.

If you don't know the name Tyrese Rice by now, be sure to tune in to at least one BC game this season because he is one of the most fun players in the country to watch. He hit a number of tough shots (my favorite was a move he made in the first half when Danny Green got switched on to him - at the end of the shot clock, he crossed over from right to left, leading directly into a step back jumper which he hit in Green's face, and proceeded to jaw at Green the entire way down the floor) as he finished the game with 25 points, 8 assists, and 5 boards. But it was more than just the stats he put up. Rice scored nine of BC's last 11 points (and had the assist on the other bucket), including hitting 7-8 free throws the help hold UNC at bay. Rice has always been known as a scorer, but he showed a great deal of leadership and composure in the second half.

BC also got outstanding performances from Rakim Sanders and Reggie Jackson. Sanders finished the game with 22 points, 6 boards, and 7 steals and Jackson added 17 off the bench. But you cannot underestimate how well center Josh Southern (as well as the rest of the Eagles front line, for that matter) played before fouling out. He only had 4 points and 5 boards, but he frustrated Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson all night. Hansbrough still got his (21 and 9), but was just 6-15 from the floor and 9-12 from the line, and never really seemed to get into a rhythm. Thompson, who came in averaging 14 and 7, finished with just 5 and 5.

Cal 81, Arizona State 71: This was the first time I had the chance to see Cal play, and they are one of the most entertaining teams that I have seen this year. It was on display tonight as Cal used hot shooting and great ball movement against the ASU zone to upset the Sun Devils. Cal set the tone early, as they knocked down five of their first seven three's and used a 16-0 run to build an early 12 point lead. The Sun Devils came back to tie it up at the half, and briefly led during the second half, but this was the Bears game.

They were led by Jerome Randle, a listed-at-5'10" (but looks closer to 5'7") and lighting quick PG. Randle finished with 26 points and 10 assists (both career highs). He hit three three-balls early on to help Cal build their lead, but during the second half he made the biggest shot of the game. Arizona State had widdled an eight point lead down to two with just over two minutes left in the game. A miscommunication on defense left Randle open from about 25 feet (which is well within his range), and Randle hit it and got fouled, sending the lead back up to six and all but doing in the Sun Devils.

This was a bad match-up for Arizona State. They play a match-up zone, which is tough when you play a team like Cal, who shoots over 50% from deep on the season (yes, that is true). Cal also moved the ball around really well, which got the ASU defense moving. One of the most impressive things about this Cal team is that they didn't settle for three's. Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson, two of the team's best shooters, attacked the gaps of the zone - making pull-ups, floaters, and getting all the way to the rim - at time passing up open three's to do so.

Mike Montogomery has a seven-footer on this Cal team named Jordan Wilkes. If this kid can develop into a defender, a rebounder, and an option for a dump-off on penetration, then Cal is going to sneak up on a lot of people this year.

For Arizona State, it was business as usual. Play a zone defense, use a lot of clock on offense, and if everything breaks down, give the ball to James Harden with 10 seconds on the shot clock. Harden had 26 and 8 rebounds, while Jeff Pendergraph and Rihard Kuksiks both went for 16. But the Sun Devils only got 13 points out of the rest of their team. If these guys want to compete for the Pac 10 title, they are going to need the likes of Derek Glasser, Ty Abbott, and Eric Boateng to step up and be threats offensively.

Louisville 74, Kentucky 71: Edgar Sosa finally looked the Edgar Sosa we knew from his freshman year. Coming off of his two worst performances in college (he combined for 2 points, 1 assist, and 4 turnovers against UAB and UNLV), Sosa exploded for 18 points, including a 25 footer with 2.8 seconds left that gave Louisville the win.

The shot he hit was much more important to Louisville than simply winning a basketball game. Sosa is a talented player, he just seems to have lost his confidence. If he can turn back into the Edgar Sosa from his freshman season, he becomes the missing piece for this Louisville team. You think that shot is going to boost his confidence a little?

But there is more. Louisville-Kentucky is as fierce a rivalry as there is in college basketball. Louisville has been struggling all season long. On numerous different occasions it seemed as if they had locked up this win. Kentucky had come back from an eight point deficit in the first half, and took a 43-42 lead with 17:14 left. Louisville responded by going on a 15-2 run, opening up their biggest lead of the game. Kentucky started chipping away, but Louisville pushed the lead back to 11 with under nine minutes left. Kentucky came back again, cutting it to 66-64 with just under three minutes left, but Louisville knocked down five straight free throws to take a 71-64 lead with under a minute left (here is a video of the end of the game - I'm not going to embed it as it is about 10 minutes long).

That is when it all started to fall apart. First, Louisville fouled Jodie Meeks as he was shooting a three (he hit all three). Then, after the ball was kicked out of bounds, Earl Clark had his inbounds pass tipped by Patrick Patterson, who found Meeks for a lay-up. Clark then threw away the next inbounds pass, Meeks picked up the loose ball, and got fouled, tying up the game with the two free throws. If the Cardinals had lost this game after blowing a 12 point lead, an 11 point lead, and a 7 point lead with less than a minute left, I don't think their season could have recovered from it.

The rest of the action from Sunday:

• Duke 69, Virginia Tech 44: The Blue Devils were in charge of this one throughout as they jumped on the Hokies with an 11-0 run out of the gates. Tech got it down to four points at 39-35 with 17:00 left in the game, but Duke turned up its defense, outscoring the Hokies 30-9 the rest of the way. Kyle Singler led the Devils with 19, 8 boards, and 7 dimes and Gerald Henderson added 15 and 8 boards. Malcolm Delaney led the Hokies with 12. A side note about Duke: this Duke team as a reputation of being a bunch of softies that stand outside and jack up three's, but they are turning into one of the toughest defensive teams in the country. They aren't afraid to get out and defend 50-60 feet from the basket, and it makes it very difficult for their opponent's to get into an offense because they have to start it out so high.
  
• UCLA 83, Oregon 74: The Ducks were down 11 at halftime, but cut the lead to three multiple times in the second half. After a Tajuan Porter three made it 64-60 with just over six minutes left, UCLA went on an 8-0 capped by a Darren Collison three-point play with just under three minutes to go.The Bruins were on fire all night, finishing the game 13-22 from deep (8-10 in the first half). Collison led UCLA with 22 and 9 assists and Josh Shipp added 17, including four second half three's to help hold off Oregon. Porter led the Ducks with 24.
• Michigan 74, Illinois 64: In the battle of the resurgent programs (both teams set school-records for losses last season), the Wolverines put five guys in double figures, led by 16, 6 boards, 5 assists, and 3 steals from Manny Harris. Michigan did it with defense as they outscored the Illini by 11 in the second half and held them to 32% shooting after they shot 59% in the opening half. With the game tied at 62 and six minutes left on the clock, Michigan would hold Illinois to just one more basket as they finished the game on a 12-2 run. Demetri McCamey led Illinois with 11 and 10 dimes.
• Marquette 84, Cincinnati 50: Jerel McNeal had 26 points and knocked down seven three's as Marquette cruised.
• Siena 65, St. Peter's 52: The Saints may have struggled a bit during their national games, but they are still the class of the MAAC as they are now sitting atop the standings at 4-0.
• Portland State 92, Northern Arizona 91 4OT: Yup, this one went to four overtimes. Portland State was down by 16 at halftime and never led in regulation, but forced OT when Dominc Waters (who finished with 41) hit a lay-up in the lane to tie it at 57. Cameron Jones of NAU hit two free throws to send it to a second OT tied at 64. NAU's Zarko Comagic hit a three to send it to a third OT at 75 all, and Jones forced the fourth OT with a floater at the buzzer that made the score 84-84. Josh Wilson, who led NAU with 25, hit a three with 13 seconds left to give the Lumberjacks a 91-90 lead, but Waters was fouled and hit both free throws at the other end for the win.
• Oregon State 62, USC 58 OT: The Beavers got their first Pac 10 win since Feb. 22nd of 2007 (yes, they went 0-18 last year) as they knocked off USC in Corvallis. Sound familiar? Roeland Schaftenaar, who finished the game with 18 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists, hit a three to force overtime after the Beavers were down by 15 in the second half. The Trojans were led by 15 from Taj Gibson.
• Stanford 76, Arizona 60: The Cardinal got 19 and 12 from Landry Fields as they bounced back from the whooping they got from Arizona State on Friday. Chase Budinger once again struggled, going 4-11 for just 12 points. In his last four games, he is averaging just 10.5 ppg while shooting 12-50 from the floor (24%).
  

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Friday Lay-up Lines

Pac-10 play starts tonight as eight of the ten teams take the court for the first time in conference play. The best game of the night may be Stanford hosting Arizona State. The Sun Devils are right up there with the Bruins when you talk about favorites to win the Pac-10, but Stanford, who lost Team Lopez and Trent Johnson during the off-season, has started off the season undefeated. These teams are led by two of the best scorers out west in James Harden (23.4 ppg) and Lawrence Goods (18.9 ppg). I like ASU in this one. Stanford may be undefeated, but their best win right now is against a so-so Texas Tech team (albeit by 45 points). And despite the fact that Harden is averaging 23.4 ppg, Arizona State actually has a fairly balanced team, with Jeff Pendergraph inside and Ty Abbott and Rihard Kuksiks on the perimeter all averaging double digits. Stanford may be undefeated and playing at home, but I still need to see them beat someone before I am sold on this team.

• 4:00 PM: USC (9-3) @ Oregon (6-6): Both teams have played below expectations up to this point in the season. Maybe the most interesting match-up of the day comes in this game as USC's big back court (PG Daniel Hackett is 6'5") tries to guard 5'6" TaJuan Porter.
• 8:30 PM: Arizona (9-3) @ Cal (11-2): The Golden Bears have been a pleasant surprise this year as they have gotten out to a 11-2 start. Arizona has also looked better than expected, with a lot of that credit going to Jordan Hill, who is having a break out season. Hill missed Arizona's game against Weber State, but looks like he will be in uniform against Cal.
• 10:30 PM: UCLA (10-2) @ Oregon State (5-5): The Beavers have gotten better as the year has progressed, but they will get a real test when UCLA comes to town.

Here are the rest of the game's happening today:

• 5:30 PM: South Carolina (9-2) @ Baylor (12-1): The Gamecocks gave Clemson all they could handle their last time out. Devon Downey is one of the best scorers in the country. After Arkansas beat Oklahoma, a SC win over Baylor could help the SEC regain some respect as a conference.
• 7:00 PM: Dayton (12-1) @ Toledo (2-10)
• 8:30 PM: Syracuse (13-1, 1-0) @ South Florida (5-7)
• 9:00 PM: Appalaichan State (5-4) @ Texas (10-2)
• 10:00 PM: St. Mary's (12-1) @ Cal. St. Bakersfield (4-10)

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No. 15 Arizona St.: 2008-2009 Team Preview

2007-2008 Team Record: 21-13, 9-9 Pac-10 (t-5th)

Key Losses: Christian Polk (3.5 ppg)

Key Returnees: James Harden (17.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.3 apg), Jeff Pendergraph (12.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Ty Abbott (9.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg)

Newcomers: Johnny Coy, Taylor Rhode, Brenton Thomas, Virgil Sanders, Trent Anderson, Stephen Rogers, Nico Fricchione

Arizona State was one of the last teams left out of the NCAA tournament last year, but they return essentially their entire roster. When you talk about Arizona State, the first person you have to mention is James Harden. The Pac-10 was loaded with talented players like Kevin Love and OJ Mayo last season, so its easy to see why Harden flew under the radar nationally. Harden, however, was as productive as anyone in the conference. Harden has what I would term as "old-man's game". He is not all that athletic (although that picture may make you think otherwise), but he is extremely fundamentally sound. He knows how to use hesitations, fakes, and jump-stops to create space for himself to get a shot off and how to draw a defender (especially on penetration) and kick out to an open teammate. He is a very efficient player (53% FG, 41% 3's), is a fantastic shooter, and has a high basketball IQ. He isn't going to dunk over you, but he will slither his way to the basket and finish with a floater, finger roll, or runner that will leave you saying "how the heck did he make that?".

Arizona State has a slew of other talented guards. The best of the bunch is probably sophomore Ty Abbott, a late signee last year after de-committing from New Mexico. Abbott is a very good shooter (his 76 3's were fourth most by a freshman in Pac-10 history) and thrived off of kickouts from teammates. Derek Glasser will most likely get most of the starts at the point, but he is coming off of knee surgery in May, so Jamelle McMillan should also see a lot of time (they basically shared PG duties last season as well). They are very similar players, as both as good play-makers that can knock down an open three, but Glasser protects the ball better (59 t/o's in 912 minutes versus 43 t/o's in 484 minutes). Also in the rotation in the Sun Devils back court is Jerren Shipp, Josh's (UCLA) and Joe's (former Cal Bear) brother. Jerren, a junior, is a very capable scorer that kind of got lost in the shuffle with the addition of Abbott and Harden (he did start 16 games last year when the Sun Devils went small, with Harden at the four).

As good as the Sun Devil back court could end up being next year, their front court must improve in order for them to be better than a good Pac-10 team. They do have Jeff Pendergraph, a 6'9" bruiser inside. Pendergraph, like Harden, is a bit of a throwback player. He's not a combo-forward, as he is much more effective with his back to the basket, using a variety of jump hooks, drop steps, and up fakes to score. He's big, strong, and fairly athletic. But beyond that, the Sun Devil front line was thin last year, which helped lead them to being the second worst rebounding team in the Pac-10 (although they do play strictly zone, which is a much tougher defense to rebound and box out in). Eric Boateng, the 6'10" Duke transfer and former Mickey D's all-american, should benefit from the year getting used to the ASU system and hopefully can provide another force inside. Rihards Kuksiks came on strong towards the end of the year, scoring double figures in six of the last 12 games, but he is still more of a wing than an inside threat. His versatility is effective in Herb Sendek's system - he can mix it up a bit in the paint defensively, but he has the perimeter skills and jump shot to create a mismatch on the offensive end. Freshmen Johnny Coy (a 6'7" wing) and Taylor Rhodes (a 6'8" forward) should also compete for minutes.

Outlook: You know what you are going to get when you play Arizona State: a slow-paced game where you will have to defend for 35 seconds and beat a zone on the offensive end. Sendek has recruited well for his system, as he has a lot of guys that can do a lot of different things. James Harden is probably the preseason favorite for Pac-10 player of the year, and if the rest of the team can improve, Arizona State is looking at the most talented roster they have had in a long time. They aren't as good as UCLA, but a second place finish in the conference and advancing to the second weekend in the NCAA's is very possible. Continue reading...