Friday, March 5, 2010

Maybe the Pac-10 isn't so bad after all

We've heard it so much that it has become almost ingrained in our heads.

"The Pac-10 is down this season. They are one-bid league. No one can get an at-large."

Well, that has all but been proven false by Cal, whose steady ascension in the RPI has peaked at 22nd as of March 4th. The Bears don't have any great wins, but they have beaten four teams in the non-conference schedule that won or finished in second in their respective leagues, and also lost to the Big XII, Pac-10, Big East, and MWC regular season champ. They've lost five times in Pac-10 play, with four of the five coming on the road.

Jerome Randle and Cal will be dancing.
(photo credit: AP)

Now, Cal would be very lucky to get anything higher than a six or seven seed (and that is if they win the Pac-10 tournament), but the bottom line is that Cal is very close to locking up a bid.

Are they the only one?

Take a look at these resumes:

Team #1: 19-9, 10-7
  • RPI: 55; SOS: 55
  • Top 25/50/100: 2-2/2-2/6-5
  • Best Wins: Texas A&M, Cal
  • Worst Losses: Oregon, USC twice, UCLA
Team #2: 21-9, 11-6
  • RPI: 54; SOS: 73
  • Top 25/50/100: 0-5/1-5/3-7
  • Best Wins: San Diego State
  • Worst Losses: USC, UCLA
Team #3: 21-9, 9-6
  • RPI: 59; SOS: 126
  • Top 25/50/100: 0-2/1-3/6-4
  • Best Wins: Old Dominion, Ole Miss twice
  • Worst Losses: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Rider, Western Kentucky
Team #4: 20-9, 8-7
  • RPI: 56; SOS: 64
  • Top 25/50/100: 1-5/2-5/4-8
  • Best Wins: Kansas State, UTEP
  • Worst Losses: Arkansas
Care to take a guess at which team is which?

... I'll wait ...

Team #1 is Washington, team #2 is Arizona State. Team #3 Mississippi State, and #4 Ole Miss.

I know that there is so much more to selecting the field than those five statistics. I also realize that those numbers don't necessarily tell you the whole story about any team. Mississippi State hasn't played anyone and has beaten even fewer teams while losing to five teams with RPI's over 100. Washington hasn't beaten anyone that matter on the road. Arizona State has no marquee wins, and just one "quality" win. Ole Miss hasn't beaten an SEC opponent with a winning record in league play, and the only SEC team they've beaten with a winning record overall is Alabama.

But the bubble is exceedingly weak this year.

We know this.

Every team on the bubble has flaws.

Hell, Ole Miss and Mississippi State have flaws, but both of them have been getting at-large consideration.

My only question: are Washington and Arizona State really that far behind?

No comments: