Conference Tournament Preview: Six teams that can steal a bid

Everyone loves the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Four straight days jam-packed with 12 hours of do-or-die college hoops is more than most people can handle.

But for junkies like us, the next 13 days are just as good, for it is when the true Madness takes place. Over the course of these two weeks, we whittle some 347 teams down to 30 conference champions (the Ivy doesn't have a tournament). Auto-bids will be won. Bubbles will be burst. Buzzers will be beaten. And most importantly, a 65 team bracket will be made.

In any tournament setting, one of the things that people enjoy watching the most is an upset. Some of the most memorable NCAA tournament moments are a direct result of David beating a Goliath. It is what makes the NCAA tournament so special and why so many people tune in.

Upsets in the conference tournaments are just as much fun to root for, unless you're a bubble team. If you are one of the schools on the cut line of the at-large pool, an upset in a conference tournament could be the difference between an NCAA trip and a bubble bursting. Ask St. Mary's, who lost out on a bid when Mississippi State made a run to the SEC tournament title last year.

Here are six teams that could steal a bid this season:


Loyola Marymount Lions: 16-14, 7-7 WCC

All season long, the talk in the WCC has been about 1) Gonzaga, 2) St. Mary's, and 3) Portland, especially in the early season. These days, the only time you expect to people bring up Loyola Marymount basketball is when they are talking about the late Hank Gathers. And while the Lions did post a marked improvement from last season, when they finished the year with just three wins, but a 7-7 team in the WCC shouldn't strike fear into the hearts of anyone.


That said, this is a team that has dealt with injuries all season long. Edgar Garibay has been out since early in the season with an ACL tear. Starters Ashley Hamilton and Jared Dubois have missed significant time, as have reserves Larry Davis and Given Kalipinde. Hell, even leading scorer Drew Viney missed back-to-back games earlier in the season. The good news is that when they are healthy, the Lions can play with anyone. They beat USC on the road, Notre Dame in South Bend, and most recently knocked off WCC champion Gonzaga in mid-February. The other good news? LMU is healthy now. They'll have their work cut out for them, as the five seed needs to win four straight games in the WCC.


St. Louis Billikens: 19-10, 10-5 A-10

There are six teams still on the bubble in the A-10, but despite being in fourth place in the league standings, the Billikens are not one of those teams. But if there is anything that St. Louis has taught us this season, its that they can play with any of the other teams in the conference. They've beaten physical teams like Dayton and Duquesne. They've beaten teams that want to spread the floor a bit more like URI and Xavier. Before losing two of three to Temple and Xavier (both were dogfights, no shame in either of those losses), the Billikens had won six in a row. They have a talented lead guard, a couple capable bodies inside, and a coach that knows what it take to advance in a tournament.


Missouri Valley

Thanks to the poor play of a number of bubble teams, Northern Iowa is all but a lock to make the tournament despite struggling down the stretch. But this is Arch Madness, where anything can happen, which means that the Panthers are by no means a lock to win the MVC tournament. There are three teams I can see with the potential to make a run through St. Louis. Wichita State all season long has been the second best team in the conference. They've struggled a bit of late, but this is a team with a legitimate scoring threat in the post and a couple quality back court players. Illinois State is dangerous because they have the best player in the league. Osiris Eldridge is good enough to take over a game (does anyone remember when he scored 21 after halftime in last year's final?), and Dinma Odiakosa and Lloyd Philips are both talented role players. The Redbirds are also playing their best basketball of the season, having won six in a row before dropping their season finale to Northern Iowa. Also keep an eye on Missouri State. They are the best offensive team in the conference, beat Tulsa and Nevada at home, won at St. Louis, and of their 11 losses, only one came by more than 11 points (18 points at Bradley).


VCU Rams: 20-8, 11-7

Like the MVC, the CAA is a quality conference with just one team that is deserving of an at-large bid (Old Dominion). So who can make a run to the CAA title? Northeastern finished second in the league, is a good defensive team, and has as good of a back court as you will find at this level. William & Mary has already knocked off Maryland, Richmond, and Wake Forest. They run a modified Princeton offense, spreading the floor and attacking gaps, which creates a lot of three point opportunities. If they get hot, they can make a run. But I like VCU.


The Rams may have lost Eric Maynor, but it doesn't mean this is a team devoid of talent. Larry Sanders is as long and athletic as anyone you will find in the country, and has been slowly developing into a star inside. Joey Rodriguez is a talented point guard, and Shaka Smart has a wealth of quality role players. The Rams will have their work cut out for them, as they have to win two games before getting a shot at ODU in the semi's. But keep this in mind while watching the CAA Tournament. VCU is 15-1 at home this season, with wins over Oklahoma, Nevada, URI, Richmond, and Old Dominion. VCU is in Richmond. The CAA Tournament is played in Richmond. Advantage Rams?


Arizona State Sun Devils: 20-9, 10-6 Pac-10

It feels weird saying this about a team that plays in a power conference, but lets remember that this year's Pac-10 is not a normal power conference. And let's face it - Cal is going to the tournament so long as they take care of business against Stanford and whoever they get in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. But Arizona State can play. They are running less of a Princeton offense and more of a motion style system that allows Herb Sendek to better utilize his talented perimeter players. They have a big bodied center and an underrated point guard. They have won six of their last eight overall and five of the last seven games they have played on the road. While the balance in the Pac-10 makes it obvious that any team can get hot and make a run through the tournament, I think Arizona State has the best chance.


New Mexico State Aggies: 19-9, 11-3 19-10, 11-4 WAC

New Mexico State likes to score. They push the ball, they spread the floor, and they allow their two talented scoring guards, Jahmar Young and Jonathon Gibson that average a combined 39.3 ppg, the freedom to score and create. The problem for the Aggies is that they don't have much depth and they don't play much defense, which makes them susceptible. New Mexico State has shown flashes, however. They have beaten both UTEP and Utah State this season, and they have won seven of their last eight games nine games (while writing this post, the Aggies lost to Nevada).