Five first round picks that won't get a second NBA contract

Joe Alexander was the rising star of the 2008 NBA Draft.

The 6'8" forward was a first round afterthought for much of the season before a series of monster performances -- including scoring 29 or more points four times in a five game stretch in March -- and a Mountaineer postseason run to the Big East semifinals and the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 sent his draft stock soaring. That tends to happen when you lead a middle-of-the-pack Big East team to wins over Pitt, UConn, Arizona, and Duke in a three week span.

Alexander's stock shot even higher in the draft combine. Not only had he become a star at the collegiate level, but he was a physical specimen. His 38.5" vertical (and over-12 foot max reach), his combine-best 2.99 second 3.4 sprint, and his combine-best 24 reps of 185 lbs on the bench press had scouts drooling.


That success and potential has yet to translate to the NBA, however. Thanks to a series of injuries and a lack of production when healthy, Alexander became the highest-drafted player to have the organization that drafted him opt against picking up the third-year of his rookie contract. (For those unfamiliar, the way the rookie wage scale works is that a first-round pick receives a guaranteed two-year contract at a slotted salary with team options for the third and the fourth years.)

Who in this draft class projected as a first-rounder is at risk of not making it to their second NBA contract?

Marshon Brooks, Providence: There is no questioning that Brooks was an explosive scorer for Providence, but the way he scored in college doesn't necessarily translate well to the NBA. In college, he had free reign to shoot whenever and from wherever he pleased. In the NBA, he will be a role player asked to hit spot-up jumpers, an area of his game he struggles. In college, he played in an uptempo system that allowed him to use his long-strides and massive wingspan to beat defenders in transition settings. At the next level, his lack of a quick first step and his mediocre explosiveness around the rim will hurt him in a half court setting. Perhaps the biggest issue is on the other side of the ball. He wasn't asked to play much, if any, defense in college. Can he defend in the NBA?

Jordan Hamilton, Texas: As a sophomore, Hamilton developed into one of the most dangerous scoring threats in the Big 12, when he was the focal point of the Longhorn offensive attack. But as a freshman, Hamilton was as much of a risk on the offensive end as he was a strength. Hamilton struggles with the term shot selection. His mindset is to score, score, score, and that hurt Texas at times when freshman Hamilton needed to take a backseat to Avery Bradley, Damion James, and Dexter Pittman. In the NBA, Hamilton will be playing a role more similar to the one he played as a freshman than the one he played as a sophomore. Can he handle being the third or fourth option offensively? And, like Brooks, Hamilton will be a liability on the defensive end.


Chandler Parsons, Florida: At 6'10" with a three point stroke and the ability to handle the ball and create open shots for his teammates, Parsons is an intriguing prospect. There aren't many players in this draft class with his kind of versatility, skill set, and physical tools. The problem with Parsons is that while he does a lot well, he isn't great at anything. He doesn't have one skill that is NBA ready. The little things that he did on the court to help Florida win games aren't going to translate to the NBA. He seemingly got lost in the shuffle in college playing with Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. What happens at the next level?

Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech: On paper, Shumpert looks great. He is a 6'6" combo-guard with a massive wingspan, a 42" vertical, and the strength of a post player. He's also a player that averaged 5.0 apg as a freshman playing a secondary role and 17.3 ppg as a junior is a leading role. But anyone that watched Shumpert play can tell you, he struggles with his shot selection -- forcing far too many jumpers for a player that is a sub-par jump shooter -- and his decision making. He's also a player that played on three disappointing Georgia Tech teams, including one that got an NCAA Tournament bid despite a sub-.500 ACC record.

Klay Thompson, Washington State: There is no question about Thompson's ability to shoot the basketball. Simply put, he has range for days. Combine that stroke with his height (6'7"), his high-release point, and his ability to use off-ball screens to get open, and its no wonder that the son of Mychal Thompson was able to score in bunches at the college level. The problem is that, for the past two seasons, Thompson has seen his performance, specifically his efficiency, slip in Pac-10 play. If he struggled to handle the physicality of the Pac-10 -- the weakest of the six major conferences -- will he be able to handle defenders at the next level?

(And since no list is complete without one):

Bold Prediction: Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State: Leonard, like Alexander, is a physical specimen. He's a smooth player with a terrific motor who has a wingspan typically seen on seven-footers. He's much more athletic than the numbers he posted at the NBA Draft combine -- sitting out the drill work while waiting for 45 minutes in a cold gym is not a way to prepare to test your vertical. There are a lot of things that Leonard can do on a basketball court, but most of those traits -- his defense, his rebounding ability, his hustle -- are the result of those physical tools. Leonard is a power forward trapped in a small forward's body. If he doesn't develop his jumpshot and his ball handling ability, can he play on the perimeter in the NBA?
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NBA Draft Profiles: Marshon Brooks, Providence

Bjorn Zetterberg of SwishScout.com will be helping us out with all of our NBA Draft Profiles this year. You can follow him on twitter @swishscout.

To browse through the latest prospect profiles, click here. To see a complete list of the players we have profiled, click here.

Stats: 24.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 3.1 t/o's, 1.5 spg, 1.2 bpg

Age: 22, senior

Size:

• Listed: 6'5", 195 lb
• Official: 6'4.25" (no shoes), 6'5.25" (with shoes), 7'1" (wingspan), 8'5" (reach), 195 lb

Strengths: Marshon Brooks can flat out score the basketball. Granted, he was playing in one of the most uptempo systems in the country (ninth according to Kenpom) and on a team that did not employ many other scoring options. But that doesn't change the fact that he averaged 24.6 ppg. And it doesn't change the fact that he went for 52 points against Notre Dame or 43 points against Georgetown. Brooks is at his best when he can slash to the bucket in the open court. He's not an overly explosive player -- Brooks isn't going to jump over you or blow by you with his quickness -- but he takes long strides and has a tremendous wingspan. He got to the free throw line quite a bit this past season (especially during Big East play) which is impressive considering he also took 197 threes. Its tough to gauge just how good of a shooter he is considering his shot selection, but he did hit some tough, contested mid-range shots this season and is a capable three point shooter. Brooks is a defensive playmaker thanks to his length, but its tough to determine what kind of on-ball defender he will be given the zone the Friars played.

Weaknesses: The biggest issue that Brooks has right now is that his physical profile is lacking. He's not a great leaper, he can beat a slower defender thanks to his long stride but he doesn't have blow-by quickness, and he lacks the upper body strength that will allow him to finish through contact. There are also some major questions in his decision-making. Brooks turned the ball over quite a bit and had a very low assist-rate given his usage-rate. He also showed fairly horrendous shot-selection this past season. But Brooks also played on a bad team where he was one of the only offensive options. For the Friars to compete, they needed Brooks to be a gunner on the off-chance that he would have one of those offensive outbursts.

Comparisons:

• Best Case Scenario: The comparison that you are going to see a lot of is Kobe Bryant, which is a bit unfair for Brooks. While its true that, visually, Brooks has a similar looking jumper and smoothness to his game, Kobe is worlds better -- as a playmaker, as a shooter, and as an athlete. Draft Express compares Brooks to Nick Young, which is fair (although Young is a better athlete), but I what Bjorn says -- that he will end up as a mix of Anthony Morrow or Courtney Lee. Whatever the case, Brooks looks like the kind of player that will top out as a guy that plays significant minutes that will provide an offensive outburst now and then.


• Worst Case Scenario: If Brooks can't find a role in the NBA, he'll likely end up as one of those guys that floats around Europe and makes you say 'Hey, I remember him' every time you see him on an overseas roster. Draft Express equates him to Henry Domercant, the high-scoring guard out of Eastern Illinois that went undrafted. Bjorn says he'll be a poor-man's Rudy Fernandez. How about this: Gary Neal. Neal took a while to get to the NBA, but the Towson product found a role as a spot-up shooter and rotation player with the Spurs.

Outlook: We know that Brooks can score, but the key for him finding an NBA niche is learning how to be more than a ball-dominating gunner. Simply put, he is not going to find an opportunity in the NBA where he can have the freedom to shoot the way he did at Providence. He needs to become a reliable jump-shooter than can attack off the bounce when the opportunity is there. He needs to improve his shot-selection and become a better play-maker and passer; there were times this past season when it appeared that Brooks only saw the rim once he put the ball on the floor. He's also going to need to improve his strength to hang around the NBA. But with his length and ability to make things happen on the defensive end of the floor, Brooks has a shot to make it as a sparkplug off the bench.

Draft Range: Mid to Late 1st round

And the experts say...

• Chad Ford: "Yes, it is amazing to see Brooks play and literally see Kobe here and there. But as it relates to where he gets his points, quickness with the ball, star-level athleticism or playmaking on defense from, there simply is no comparison. Brooks is a hot name now and can certainly get drafted in Round 1, but in a stronger draft he'd be stuck as a second-round prospect who would not be assured of having an NBA career."


• Draft Express: "Although Brooks's name wasn't found on many draft boards prior to this season, he's been far too productive to ignore in 2010-2011. And while his upside may be perceived as somewhat limited since he's a senior who will turn 22 this month, his physical tools and continued improvement suggest that there is still room for growth. He will definitely be a player to keep an eye on ... as big-time wing scorers who can create their own shot and shoot 50% from the field don't grow on trees. There will still be questions about how his game will translate, and if he'll be able fit in and play a role at the pro level, but ... he will surely earn plenty of looks from NBA scouts."


• Swish Scout: "Dangerous scorer who has great versatility in his ability to put up points, but was an underrated defensive playmaker for the Friars in his senior season thanks to a ridiculous 7’2″ wingspan for the 6’5″ SG. Brooks will likely never have the ideal NBA build or supreme athleticism, but he has a great feel for the game on both ends of the court to warrant being a player who sees playing time on a nightly basis."

Highlights:




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Should we started referring to him as just "The Marshon" now?

Tim Abromaitis broke out of a scoring slump, scoring 15 points in the first eight minutes of the game and finishing with 28. Its just the second time since January 4th he's scored more than 13.

Ben Hansbrough continued his push for Big East player of the year, hitting for a career-high 32 points.

Notre Dame bounced back from yet another road beating by going into the Dunkin Donuts Center and holding off a scrappy Providence team 94-93.

All of those are legitimate and relevant storylines coming out of Wednesday's game between the Friars and the Irish. Yet, no one is going to be talking about that tomorrow.

Why?


Because Marshon Brooks went off for a Big East record 52 points, breaking the 20 year old record held by another Friar, Eric Murdock. He had a Big East record with 20 made field goals as well (on just 28 attempts), breaking a record set by Steve Rich of Miami. Brooks now has the highest single-game scoring total in the country this season -- besting Jimmer's 47 points at Utah -- and saw his average get bumped by a full point, from 24.4 ppg to 25.4 ppg.

"I was feeling it. It was going to be tough to stop me," Brooks said after the game.

"That was staggering, and I'm glad we escaped," Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey said.

Perhaps most impressive was that Brooks scored 15 points in the final three minutes to nearly lead Providence to an improbable comeback. The Friars were down by as much as 16 points, but Brooks got the lead down to just two points on three different occasions. He hit a three with 1.8 seconds left to give us the final margin and break the 50 point barrier.

Now, before I'm done with this post, let's have some fun with it. Brooks' 52 points was more than 12 different teams scored tonight. That includes Alabama's 51-49 win over Auburn and Morgan State's 42-39 (seriously) win over Delaware State. But it doesn't include Wisconsin, because Josh Gasser hit a buzzer-beating three to beat Michigan (and Marshon) 53-52.

If you throw in the 60 combined points from Hansbrough and Abromaitis, the game's three stars managed to put up 112 total points, more than were scored in five different games. Two others finished at 113 total points.

Not a lot of defense played at The Dunk tonight.
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