Five first round picks that won't get a second NBA contract

Joe Alexander was the rising star of the 2008 NBA Draft.

The 6'8" forward was a first round afterthought for much of the season before a series of monster performances -- including scoring 29 or more points four times in a five game stretch in March -- and a Mountaineer postseason run to the Big East semifinals and the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 sent his draft stock soaring. That tends to happen when you lead a middle-of-the-pack Big East team to wins over Pitt, UConn, Arizona, and Duke in a three week span.

Alexander's stock shot even higher in the draft combine. Not only had he become a star at the collegiate level, but he was a physical specimen. His 38.5" vertical (and over-12 foot max reach), his combine-best 2.99 second 3.4 sprint, and his combine-best 24 reps of 185 lbs on the bench press had scouts drooling.


That success and potential has yet to translate to the NBA, however. Thanks to a series of injuries and a lack of production when healthy, Alexander became the highest-drafted player to have the organization that drafted him opt against picking up the third-year of his rookie contract. (For those unfamiliar, the way the rookie wage scale works is that a first-round pick receives a guaranteed two-year contract at a slotted salary with team options for the third and the fourth years.)

Who in this draft class projected as a first-rounder is at risk of not making it to their second NBA contract?

Marshon Brooks, Providence: There is no questioning that Brooks was an explosive scorer for Providence, but the way he scored in college doesn't necessarily translate well to the NBA. In college, he had free reign to shoot whenever and from wherever he pleased. In the NBA, he will be a role player asked to hit spot-up jumpers, an area of his game he struggles. In college, he played in an uptempo system that allowed him to use his long-strides and massive wingspan to beat defenders in transition settings. At the next level, his lack of a quick first step and his mediocre explosiveness around the rim will hurt him in a half court setting. Perhaps the biggest issue is on the other side of the ball. He wasn't asked to play much, if any, defense in college. Can he defend in the NBA?

Jordan Hamilton, Texas: As a sophomore, Hamilton developed into one of the most dangerous scoring threats in the Big 12, when he was the focal point of the Longhorn offensive attack. But as a freshman, Hamilton was as much of a risk on the offensive end as he was a strength. Hamilton struggles with the term shot selection. His mindset is to score, score, score, and that hurt Texas at times when freshman Hamilton needed to take a backseat to Avery Bradley, Damion James, and Dexter Pittman. In the NBA, Hamilton will be playing a role more similar to the one he played as a freshman than the one he played as a sophomore. Can he handle being the third or fourth option offensively? And, like Brooks, Hamilton will be a liability on the defensive end.


Chandler Parsons, Florida: At 6'10" with a three point stroke and the ability to handle the ball and create open shots for his teammates, Parsons is an intriguing prospect. There aren't many players in this draft class with his kind of versatility, skill set, and physical tools. The problem with Parsons is that while he does a lot well, he isn't great at anything. He doesn't have one skill that is NBA ready. The little things that he did on the court to help Florida win games aren't going to translate to the NBA. He seemingly got lost in the shuffle in college playing with Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. What happens at the next level?

Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech: On paper, Shumpert looks great. He is a 6'6" combo-guard with a massive wingspan, a 42" vertical, and the strength of a post player. He's also a player that averaged 5.0 apg as a freshman playing a secondary role and 17.3 ppg as a junior is a leading role. But anyone that watched Shumpert play can tell you, he struggles with his shot selection -- forcing far too many jumpers for a player that is a sub-par jump shooter -- and his decision making. He's also a player that played on three disappointing Georgia Tech teams, including one that got an NCAA Tournament bid despite a sub-.500 ACC record.

Klay Thompson, Washington State: There is no question about Thompson's ability to shoot the basketball. Simply put, he has range for days. Combine that stroke with his height (6'7"), his high-release point, and his ability to use off-ball screens to get open, and its no wonder that the son of Mychal Thompson was able to score in bunches at the college level. The problem is that, for the past two seasons, Thompson has seen his performance, specifically his efficiency, slip in Pac-10 play. If he struggled to handle the physicality of the Pac-10 -- the weakest of the six major conferences -- will he be able to handle defenders at the next level?

(And since no list is complete without one):

Bold Prediction: Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State: Leonard, like Alexander, is a physical specimen. He's a smooth player with a terrific motor who has a wingspan typically seen on seven-footers. He's much more athletic than the numbers he posted at the NBA Draft combine -- sitting out the drill work while waiting for 45 minutes in a cold gym is not a way to prepare to test your vertical. There are a lot of things that Leonard can do on a basketball court, but most of those traits -- his defense, his rebounding ability, his hustle -- are the result of those physical tools. Leonard is a power forward trapped in a small forward's body. If he doesn't develop his jumpshot and his ball handling ability, can he play on the perimeter in the NBA?