Five first round picks that won't get a second NBA contract

Joe Alexander was the rising star of the 2008 NBA Draft.

The 6'8" forward was a first round afterthought for much of the season before a series of monster performances -- including scoring 29 or more points four times in a five game stretch in March -- and a Mountaineer postseason run to the Big East semifinals and the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 sent his draft stock soaring. That tends to happen when you lead a middle-of-the-pack Big East team to wins over Pitt, UConn, Arizona, and Duke in a three week span.

Alexander's stock shot even higher in the draft combine. Not only had he become a star at the collegiate level, but he was a physical specimen. His 38.5" vertical (and over-12 foot max reach), his combine-best 2.99 second 3.4 sprint, and his combine-best 24 reps of 185 lbs on the bench press had scouts drooling.


That success and potential has yet to translate to the NBA, however. Thanks to a series of injuries and a lack of production when healthy, Alexander became the highest-drafted player to have the organization that drafted him opt against picking up the third-year of his rookie contract. (For those unfamiliar, the way the rookie wage scale works is that a first-round pick receives a guaranteed two-year contract at a slotted salary with team options for the third and the fourth years.)

Who in this draft class projected as a first-rounder is at risk of not making it to their second NBA contract?

Marshon Brooks, Providence: There is no questioning that Brooks was an explosive scorer for Providence, but the way he scored in college doesn't necessarily translate well to the NBA. In college, he had free reign to shoot whenever and from wherever he pleased. In the NBA, he will be a role player asked to hit spot-up jumpers, an area of his game he struggles. In college, he played in an uptempo system that allowed him to use his long-strides and massive wingspan to beat defenders in transition settings. At the next level, his lack of a quick first step and his mediocre explosiveness around the rim will hurt him in a half court setting. Perhaps the biggest issue is on the other side of the ball. He wasn't asked to play much, if any, defense in college. Can he defend in the NBA?

Jordan Hamilton, Texas: As a sophomore, Hamilton developed into one of the most dangerous scoring threats in the Big 12, when he was the focal point of the Longhorn offensive attack. But as a freshman, Hamilton was as much of a risk on the offensive end as he was a strength. Hamilton struggles with the term shot selection. His mindset is to score, score, score, and that hurt Texas at times when freshman Hamilton needed to take a backseat to Avery Bradley, Damion James, and Dexter Pittman. In the NBA, Hamilton will be playing a role more similar to the one he played as a freshman than the one he played as a sophomore. Can he handle being the third or fourth option offensively? And, like Brooks, Hamilton will be a liability on the defensive end.


Chandler Parsons, Florida: At 6'10" with a three point stroke and the ability to handle the ball and create open shots for his teammates, Parsons is an intriguing prospect. There aren't many players in this draft class with his kind of versatility, skill set, and physical tools. The problem with Parsons is that while he does a lot well, he isn't great at anything. He doesn't have one skill that is NBA ready. The little things that he did on the court to help Florida win games aren't going to translate to the NBA. He seemingly got lost in the shuffle in college playing with Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. What happens at the next level?

Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech: On paper, Shumpert looks great. He is a 6'6" combo-guard with a massive wingspan, a 42" vertical, and the strength of a post player. He's also a player that averaged 5.0 apg as a freshman playing a secondary role and 17.3 ppg as a junior is a leading role. But anyone that watched Shumpert play can tell you, he struggles with his shot selection -- forcing far too many jumpers for a player that is a sub-par jump shooter -- and his decision making. He's also a player that played on three disappointing Georgia Tech teams, including one that got an NCAA Tournament bid despite a sub-.500 ACC record.

Klay Thompson, Washington State: There is no question about Thompson's ability to shoot the basketball. Simply put, he has range for days. Combine that stroke with his height (6'7"), his high-release point, and his ability to use off-ball screens to get open, and its no wonder that the son of Mychal Thompson was able to score in bunches at the college level. The problem is that, for the past two seasons, Thompson has seen his performance, specifically his efficiency, slip in Pac-10 play. If he struggled to handle the physicality of the Pac-10 -- the weakest of the six major conferences -- will he be able to handle defenders at the next level?

(And since no list is complete without one):

Bold Prediction: Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State: Leonard, like Alexander, is a physical specimen. He's a smooth player with a terrific motor who has a wingspan typically seen on seven-footers. He's much more athletic than the numbers he posted at the NBA Draft combine -- sitting out the drill work while waiting for 45 minutes in a cold gym is not a way to prepare to test your vertical. There are a lot of things that Leonard can do on a basketball court, but most of those traits -- his defense, his rebounding ability, his hustle -- are the result of those physical tools. Leonard is a power forward trapped in a small forward's body. If he doesn't develop his jumpshot and his ball handling ability, can he play on the perimeter in the NBA?
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NBA Draft Profiles: Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech

Bjorn Zetterberg of SwishScout.com will be helping us out with all of our NBA Draft Profiles this year. You can follow him on twitter @swishscout.

To browse through the latest prospect profiles, click here. To see a complete list of the players we have profiled, click here.

Stats: 17.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.7 spg, 27.8% 3PT

Age: 20, junior

Size:

• Listed: 6'6", 220 lb
• Official: 6'4.25" (no shoes), 6'5.5" (with shoes), 6'9.5" (wingspan), 8'3.5" (reach), 222 lb

Strengths: Shumpert's biggest strength as a prospect is his terrific physical profile. He stands over 6'5" in shoes with a wingspan beyond 6'9", which are outstanding numbers for a guy that can play the point. The former McDonald's all-american is more than just a body, though. He is also a physical specimen as an athlete. He has a Vince Cater-esque 42" max vertical and threw up 18 reps of 185 lb on the bench. All of that combines to make Shumpert one of the best defensive players available in this draft. He averaged a ridiculous 2.7 spg this past season, jumping passing lanes and playing lockdown man-to-man defense. He's also a very good rebounder for his position. Shumpert's athleticism and length also make him quite dangerous when he is attacking the rim, be it in transition or in a half court setting.

Weaknesses: As a junior, Shumpert finally had the opportunity to become the focal point for the Yellow Jackets. With an increased number of shot opportunities, his saw his scoring numbers jump to 17.3 ppg. The problem is that his increased production didn't coincide with increased efficiency. Yes, Shumpert saw his turnover number drop dramatically, but that came at the expense of his shot selection. Shumpert has fallen in love with his jumpshot, but he is far from what you would consider a consistent jumpshooter. Case in point -- he shot 4.9 threes per game this past season and made just 27.8% of them. Those numbers are probably quite similar to what he shot on mid-range pull-ups. Shumpert also has a tendency of forcing a tough pass -- or even making a simple pass -- when its in his best interest to attack the rim or to try and use his physical tools to dunk over a defender. In simpler terms, Shumpert hasn't quite learned how to use his athleticism as well offensively as he does defensively.

Comparisons:

• Best Case Scenario: Somewhere between Shannon Brown and OJ Mayo. Shumpert's athletic profile is in the same league as Brown's, but if he can develop his jumper and his decision making, his skill-set is much closer to Mayo's. He can be a lock-down defense stopper, and if he embraces the fact that being a spot-up shooter is his ticket to an NBA career, than Shumpert should be a border-line NBA starter. DeShawn Stevenson is another comparison that I like.


• Worst Case Scenario: Bjorn says Trey Johnson, and I'll go with it. Johnson is a big, athletic, high-scoring guard out of Jackson State that has been tearing up the D-League for the past two seasons. But for a myriad of reasons, he hasn't had more than a couple cups of coffee in the NBA. If Shumpert doesn't refine his shot selection, improve his consistency with the jumper, and accept being a role player, he'll be an all-star in the D-League. And that isn't a compliment.

Outlook: Shumpert has the tools and the skill-set to be an NBA player. 6'5" combo-guards with 6'9" wingspans and 42" verts don't grow on trees. If Shumpert can accept the fact that his primary use in the league, at least at the start of his career, will be to blanket perimeter scorers and to chase the hot hands around screens, than he will probably be able to latch on to a team. To become more than just a defensive weapon, however, Shumpert is going to need to become a better shooter, a better decision maker, and a willing complimentary option. Shannon Brown is the perfect example for the kind of path that Shumpert should follow. He parlayed his athleticism into a defensive role, and managed to work his way into the Laker's rotation. Shumpert can do the same, and with a superior offensive repertoire, he has a higher upside than Brown.

Draft Range: Mid to Late 1st Round

And the experts say...

• Chad Ford: "Shumpert has caught the eye of NBA scouts for years, but he's never quite lived up to the potential -- at least on the offensive end of the ball. Defensively he's one of the best guards in the country. If he could ever get a consistent jump shot he'd be a lock for the first round."


• Draft Express: "While Shumpert certainly hasn't had a stellar offensive season despite his productivity, he's made a lot of key improvements in other areas. If he lands on a team with a coach that can help him hone his shot selection, eliminate the inefficient parts of his game (mainly his stubborn insistence for settling for pull-up jumpers), and play to his strengths, the improvements he's made as a slasher, rebounder, and defender could make him a very useful player at the NBA level. Though he projects as a roleplayer due to his lack of jump shooting ability and pure point guard play, Shumpert has the ability to compete with any guard in the country in workouts on a good day, and is a clear-cut sleeper prospect to watch should he enter the draft."


• Swish Scout: "Naturally built guard who has solid gifts in terms of length, size, strength, and athleticism, but could really struggle to be effective in the NBA due to a ‘shoot first’ mentality running the point. Not a great shooter or that great of a penetrator as you would hope from a guard, but plays excellent pressure defense with his ability to over opposing guards with his length, size, and lateral quickness."

Highlights:




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Three keep their name in the draft

On Tuesday, three players decided officially to keep their names in the NBA draft pool.

Louisville's Terrence Jennings, Georgia Tech's Iman Shumpert, and Michigan's Darius Morris will all be forgoing the rest of their collegiate eligibility to remain in this year's draft. Here's a look at how those decision will affect their now-former teams:


Terrence Jennings, Louisville: Jennings decision to leave was probably a smart one. The Louisville junior has an NBA body and NBA athleticism, but he is a long way from proving he has an NBA post game. The problem with playing for a team like Louisville, however, is that he likely won't get many opportunities to showcase his ability in the post next season.

Rick Pitino likes to run. He likes to have his team's pressure the ball in the full court, get out in transition, and fire away from beyond the arc. His big men -- especially in the last few seasons -- have been asked to play the role of shot blockers and offensive rebounders. Jennings isn't going to be isolated on the post too often, which would mean that he won't have the opportunity to showcase any improvements he makes. And in the eyes of the NBA, if you're not improving, you're regressing with age.

Louisville will be alright next season. They return quite a bit of talent in their back court -- Kyle Kuric, Peyton Siva, Chris Smith -- and could see a couple of injured players return to the rotation in Jared Swopshire and Raheem Buckles. Throw in the emergence of Gorgui Dieng and an excellent recruiting class -- Wayne Blackshear, Zach Price, Chane Benahan -- and the Cardinals are loaded with talent.


Darius Morris, Michigan: Michigan will get hurt the worst of these three teams. The Wolverines were young and promising, especially down the stretch of last season. With essentially the entire roster returning from a team that won eight of their last 11 games to make the NCAA Tournament, and then came a Morris floater away from forcing overtime with Duke in the second round, much was to be expected of Michigan next season.

But Morris was the most important piece. He averaged over 15 ppg and almost 7 apg. He was the team's best scorer and best creator. He was the reason that players like Stu Douglass and Zak Novak were able to get open looks from beyond the arc. He's the reason Jordan Morgan got as many easy dunks around the rim. He was hands down the best playmaker, handing out quadruple the assists of anyone else on the team.

Without Morris, Tim Hardaway, Jr, is going to have to step up and become a star as a sophomore if John Beilein fancies the idea of getting to the NCAA Tournament again.


Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech: Shumpert was far and away the best player for the Yellow Jackets last season. He led the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, and steals, which is a tough thing to do for a 6'5" guard.

If Shumpert had returned to Tech, things would have looked promising for the Yellow Jackets. While they only won five ACC games a year ago, they will still return six of their top eight scorers with Shumpert keeping his name in the draft. Glen Rice, Jr, and Brian Oliver both showed the potential to be big-time players, while Mfon Udofia should be a solid point guard to replace Shumpert.

Also joining the Aztecs with be Brandon Reed, a transfer from Arkansas State that averaged 15.1 ppg as a freshman. The issue for the Yellow Jackets, however, does not involve their back court. Kammeon Holsey and Daniel Miller return up front, but Brian Gregory will not have much scoring punch at his disposal inside.
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Iman Shumpert out for 3-6 weeks

I'm a little late on the uptake here, but Georgia Tech guard Iman Shumpert will miss at least three weeks after under going minor surgery to repair damage to his meniscus.

Shumpert hurt the knee when he slipped during a game in Puerto Rico.

Georgia Tech is already thin in their back court, but this could be worse. Freshman Mfon Udofia has been playing very well early in the season, and should be more than able to make up the production. It will also allow guys like Maurice Miller, D'Andre Bell, Lance Storrs, and Glen Rice Jr to see more minutes.

Georgia Tech has an excellent front court with Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors, and Zach Peacock, but if the Yellow Jackets really want to compete in the ACC, they are going to need to develop back court depth. What better way than throwing their more inexperienced guys into the fire.

Shumpert wasn't playing well either. His mobility and explosiveness were affected by the injury as his numbers dipped to 8.3 ppg and 4.7 apg. Even if Shumpert is out for a month, he should be back in uniform for the Duke game January 9th.

And while he may be rusty and out of shape, he will be healthy for the stretch run.

Which, in the end, what's important, right?

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No. 23: 2009-2010 Team Preview: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

2008-2009 Record: 12-19, 2-14 ACC (12th)

Key Losses: Lewis Clinch (15.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg), Alade Aminu (11.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg)

Key Returners: Gani Lawal (15.1 ppg, 9.6 rpg), Iman Shumpert (10.6 ppg, 5.0 apg), Zach Peacock (9.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg)

Newcomers: Derrick Favors, Kammeon Holsey, Daniel Miller, Brian Oliver, Glen Rice Jr, Mfon Udofia

Gani Lawal and Iman Shumpert will lead the Yellow Jackets this year.
(photo credit: NBC Sports)

It isn't that often that you see a team go from worst to first in any league, let alone the ACC. Georgia Tech finished in last place in the league in '08-'09, but with the talent they have returning and a loaded freshman class, there is a good chance the Yellow Jackets make a run to the ACC title.

The biggest reason for that is Derrick Favors. I don't generally like to weigh a team's chances based on freshman, but Favors - like a Kevin Durant or a Michael Beasley - just might be good enough to carry the Jackets. Favors, who many consider to be the best recruit in the country, is an athletic and strong 6'9" power forward. He can run the floor and finish in transition, but he also finishes very well in traffic. Favors is very good on the glass, using his size and athleticism to rebound over smaller opponents. He is a good defender and shot blocker, both on the ball and coming from the weak side. Where his game could stand to improve is on the offensive end. He has some solid back-to-the-basket moves and a pretty good touch from the perimeter, but he needs to improve his consistency.

Favors is far from the only talented kid Paul Hewitt will have in his front court. Joining him along the starting frontline is another 6'9" power forward Gani Lawal. Lawal, who probably would have been a first rounder had he entered the draft last season, has a lot of the same problems that Favors does right now. He's and excellent athlete that will play hard and hustle when he is on the court, but his offensive game is still raw. He doesn't have great hands or feet, he has a tendency to get flustered when posting up, and he has no face-up or perimeter game to speak of. That said, there aren't many bigs across the country with his combination of athleticism and energy. He and Favors form one of the best starting front courts in the country, and it isn't a stretch to see them averaging 35 ppg and 16 rpg combined this season.

The Yellow Jackets will be deep along their front line as well. Zach Peacock, who averaged 9.2 ppg and 4.8 rpg as a junior last season, is probably good enough to start for most schools around the country. His game is a bit more suited to the perimeter than Favors or Lawal because he can knock down jumpers, which is why Hewitt was able to go with three big men last season. 7'0" Brad Sheehan should also see some time up front. Two freshman will be in the mix as well. Kammeon Holsey is a slender, athletic, 6'8" power forward. He is much more of an energy/defense guy at this point. He can defend the wing and the post, runs the floor very well, and can finish above the rim. Daniel Miller is a big body in the paint with a nice touch inside, but may find it tough to earn playing time in this loaded front court.

Hewitt's back court will be anchored by Iman Shumpert. Shumpert, a sophomore, was a McDonald's all-american coming out of high school. Shumpert showed flashes of being a dominant lead guard at this level last season, but was too inconsistent. The biggest issue was his decision making. He had seven games where he turned the ball over at least six times and shot just 39% from the field. Much of that was a result of being forced to try and make a play at the end of the shot clock. But he does have the talent, not only to score but to set up his teammates as well. If Shumpert can ease into the point guard role, not trying to do too much and relying on the talent around him, he can be an above average lead guard.

One of the big question marks is going to be Moe Miller. Miller was solid, if unspectacular, playing as a more typical point guard last season, but he is coming off of a concussion he suffered in a car accident. He is much more of a distributor and typical point guard that Shumpert is, and the two should be effective playing together in the back court. If Miller is unable to go, Hewitt should be just fine with freshman Mfon Udofia playing major minutes. Udofia is a smooth lefty point guard that excels when he can break his man down. He isn't much of a shooter yet, but knows how to set up his teammates where they will be effective and how to run a team.

With last season's leading scorer Lewis Clinch graduating, there will be a lot of minutes opening up on the perimeter, and quite a few candidates to fill the role. The first of which will probably be senior D'Andre Bell. Bell missed all of last season as he battled spinal stenosis, the same injury that has hampered TJ Ford through out his career. Bell is a one of the best perimeter defenders in the ACC. Junior Lance Storrs started a few games last season, but generally was the Jackets sixth man. He is a 6'5" wing with the ability to knock down some threes, but also gained a reputation for being a tough defender. Sophomore Nick Foreman was thrust into playing time early during his freshman season due to injuries to Clinch, Bell, and Miller, although never really proved the ability to be a scoring threat.

Two freshman will be in the mix on the perimeter as well. Glen Rice Jr. is a 6'5" guard, and while he doesn't have his father's jumper, he has a reputation for being a tough, physical kid that can mix it up in the paint and finish inside. Brian Oliver is a 6'6" wing with a solid jump shot, something that could be valuable this year. Georgia Tech doesn't have many shooters, and having Oliver on the court to spread the floor for the big guys inside could be very important for the Jackets.

Outlook: I really like this Georgia Tech team. They are big at every position, have a bunch of athletes on the team, and will play with a loaded front line that includes Derrick Favors (a kid some pundits are already predicting will be a first team all-american). The key to this team will be the back court. Will Iman Shumpert turn into a star? Can Udofia and Miller handle the point guard responsibilities, spreading the ball around and getting guys good shots? Will someone be able to replace Clinch's scoring and shooting ability? But the biggest question won't be on the offensive end, where Tech has plenty of talent. Will this team be able to get enough stops to win some games?
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