2010 NBA Draft Early Entrants: The biggest mistakes

The NBA Draft's Early Entry deadline came and went on Sunday. Today, we will provide you with a bit of fodder over how some of this year's decisions could sway the 2010-11 college basketball season. For a complete list of this year's crop of early entrants, click here.

The way I see it, there are four legitimate reasons for a player to leave school early:

1. He is ready. He is a lock to be a first round pick (its even better if he is projected to go higher than that) and get a guaranteed contract. Contrary to popular belief, it is possible to develop at the NBA level. If you are able to develop while making a couple of million dollars instead of studying for exams, I say go for it.
2. Financial issues. If you are good enough to think that you have a shot of getting drafted, odds are in your favor that you are good enough to make money playing basketball somewhere. If a kid comes from a family in dire financial straits, every one should support his decision to become a professional.
3. He graduated. Like Derrick Brown last season and Eniel Polynice this year, if a player has earned his undergraduate degree, whether that is a result of redshirting a season or graduating in three years, I have no problem if he decides to go pro instead of using up his eligiblity as a grad student. Along those same lines, if a player is older than his class -- a 23 year old junior, for example -- I also think it makes sense to go pro. The older you get, the lower your ceiling for potential becomes.
4. He's a "hot" prospect. If a player's stock is high -- whether that is a result of outstanding potential (think Hassan Whiteside) or he simply had a great NCAA Tournament (think Joakim Noah after the first Florida title) -- but that player is a fraud, so to speak, then it makes sense to capitalize on that higher stock. As they say, you strike when the iron is hot.
   

For those of us that love the game of college basketball, there is nothing that we hate more than to see a kid that had a chance at becoming a star at this level waste his eligibility by declaring for the NBA Draft (and signing with an agent) before he is truly ready to leave. It happens far too often. What players made the biggest mistakes in this year's draft?


Tommy Mason-Griffin and Keith "Tiny" Gallon, Oklahoma, freshmen: Oklahoma had an incredibly disappointing season in '09-'10. Granted, no one was expecting the Sooners to win a national title, but with Willie Warren deciding to return for his sophomore season and the addition of two McDonald's all-american freshmen coming in, OU seemed like they were capable of, at the very least, competing amongst the best in the Big XII. For a variety of reasons, that didn't happen. And for a completely different set of reasons, both TMG and Gallon have entered the draft and hired agents.

Tiny and TMG both should have stayed at Oklahoma.
(photo credit: Red Dirt Sports)

Gallon's hand may have been forced. Thanks to a report by TMZ Sports that a financial advisor in Florida had funneled money to Gallon, he may not have had much of a say in the matter. Gallon is 6'9", an underwhelming athlete, heavier than the ideal is for NBA fours, and far too perimeter oriented for someone of his size. When he actually decided to play this year, he was far too willing to hoist jumpers and far too unwilling to throw his ample weight around on the block. The trend in the NBA these days is fours in the mold of a Lamar Odom or a Shawn Marion, not the second coming of Oliver Miller.

TMG is not much of an NBA prospect either. He is small, looks for his shot first, and didn't really start to show his talent until Warren and Gallon were firmly entrenched in the dog house. He does have some talent -- he can put up points in a hurry, he has deep range on his jumper, and he may have had the nastiest cross over in the country this past season -- but he seems better suited for the And-1 mixtape tour than he does for an NBA roster.


Courtney Fortson, Arkansas, sophomore: Like TMG, Fortson has enough talent to be a star at the collegiate level, but his game doesn't exactly translate to the NBA. He's quick, he has a nice handle, and he is capable of creating off the bounce. But he is also smaller than an ideal NBA point guard, he doesn't have a jump shot, and he is a poor decision maker both on the court and off of it. Between his off-the-court issues at Arkansas and his 5.1 t/o's per game (he averaged more turnovers than most point guards average assists), odds are good that Fortson doesn't get drafted and you never hear his name again.


Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati, freshman: I think we all knew this was coming, but that doesn't mean that "Born Ready" is ready for the league after one year. There is no questioning his talent or his ability to score, but there are quite a few aspects of Stephenson's game that could have made him a much more ideal prospect if he had the chance to work on them. In terms of being a one-on-one player, Stephenson's ability to create is impressive. But he doesn't quite understand when is the correct time to attack, shot selection, or the workings of help side defensively. And while that ability can be developed as a professional, it is unlikely that he lands a guaranteed contract. Wouldn't it make more sense to work on his game playing in the Big East, where he will be on national television and sportscenter regularly, than in the D-League or overseas?

Will Lance Stephenson go the way of Lenny Cooke?
(photo credit: BearcatsSportsPage)

AJ Ogilvy, Vanderbilt, junior: Ogilvy's biggest mistake may have been going back to school after his freshman season. There was a chance he would have been a first round pick in 2008, but since then he has done nothing to improve his profile as a potential pro. Yes, he is crafty in the post, he can rebound the ball, and he has a nice touch from the perimeter, but his flaws are still his flaws. He can't pass out of the post, he can't defend anyone, and he lacks a degree of toughness that he will need banging against NBA centers. In other words, Ogivly is still the same player he was two years ago, which is disconcerting for NBA teams. I'd be pretty shocked if he went in the first round.

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BREAKING: Lance Stephenson to enter the NBA Draft

Born Ready is ready for the league.

After initially saying that he would remain at Cincinnati for one more season, SNY is now reporting that Lance Stephenson has decided to put his name into the NBA Draft.

"I have decided to withdraw from the University of Cincinnati and enter my name into this year’s NBA draft," Stephenson said. "After carefully reviewing my options, it is now clear to me that the need to emotionally and financially support my family, especially my young daughter, along with my long-standing and burning passion to play in the NBA, outweighs my desire to return to the University of Cincinnati."

Lance Stephenson will be getting paid next year.
(photo credit: B/R)

This really should come as no surprise to anyone, as Stephenson was considered a one-and-done player since his high school days.

The question now becomes where does Stephenson end up getting drafted.

Most project him to go anywhere from the late first round to the second round. There are a lot of question marks regarding Stephenson. Is he a good enough shooter to play the two in the NBA? Does he have the handle? Is his decision making ability up to par? There are still lingering questions about his character.

Perhaps the biggest knock on Stephenson was that he didn't quite understand when to attack and when to play a role on Cincinnati last year. The Bearcats were a bit of a disappointment this season, as many believed that Cinci had enough talent to compete among the elite in the Big East. An underwhelming season from Stephenson was a big reason for that.

I haven't seen whether or not Stephenson is going to sign with an agent, but based on the reports, it seems likely he is in the draft for good. Stephenson is signing with an agent.
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Not buying Stephenson's return ... yet

Lance Stephenson told more than one Cincinnati reporter yesterday that he would be returning for his sophomore season.

"I don't think I have had an NBA season this year so the best choice is for me to stay," Stephenson said. "I don't think I've struggled. It hasn't been hard. I just think I just have to keep going to the gym and working on my stuff."

"I expected when I came to Cincinnati that is was going to be tough each game. I'd have to come focused. Sometimes you are going to have a bad game. Every game, you're not going to play good. Some of the games I had, I wasn't expecting it. But I think it is going to come to me."

It is probably the right decision for Stephenson.

Only time will tell if Born Ready returns to Cincinnati.
(photo credit: nj.com)

He isn't exactly being projected as a lottery pick right now. Draft Express has him as the 39th pick; NBADraft.net has him at 41st. He's also correct when he says he hasn't had an NBA season. Stephenson is averaging just 11.2 ppg and 4.8 rpg on the season, numbers that drop to 10.7 and 4.6 in Big East play. He's shooting just 19.6% from three. He has more turnovers than assists on the season.

Perhaps the most telling stat is from his last two games. Stephenson has played just 31 minutes, going 2-9 from the field for six points, in the Bearcat's last two games, both losses to fellow bubble teams.

Seeing a potential draft pick struggle and ride the bench during the most critical games of the season are not exactly confidence-inducing performances for GM's.

Stephenson has the talent. He has a knack for being able to score, with a dash of the NYC moxie that allows him to believe he can score every time down the floor. But Stephenson still needs to learn how to best utilize that talent. He needs to figure out when to simply find his shots within the system and when he needs to takeover. He is still learning what is a good shot and what isn't; what is a smart pass and what isn't.

Its a difficult transition to go from schoolboy legend and New York state's all-time leading scorer to just a piece of the puzzle.

And hopefully he realizes that he needs to go back to school and avoid to succumbing to the NBA's temptation like Lenny Cooke, Felipe Lopez, or Sebastian Telfair.

The only problem?

I'm not buying it yet.

Just like I didn't buy it when Manny Harris said he was coming back for his senior season earlier this year.

And its nothing that has to do with Stephenson being "Born Ready". Remember, when talking about college basketball players, we are still dealing with kids. While they may be athletically gifted, talented, and much larger than the normal person, these are still 18 and 19 and 20 year olds going through the same thing that you went through at that age.

Stephenson is coming off of two bad performances where he didn't get a lot of minutes and Cinci lost, putting their bubble hopes in serious jeopardy. Its only human for him to be upset or to lose a little confidence in himself and his ability.

But what happens if "Born Ready" shows up at MSG two weeks from now, averages 25 ppg, and leads the Bearcats to the Big East Tournament semi's? What happens if he actually leads this team into the tournament, where he goes for 30 against Evan Turner?

I'm not saying that's going to happen.

I don't know the future.

All I'm saying is lets wait until the end of the season before we start talking the NBA Draft and who's in/who's out.
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Monday's Pregame Beat

Despite the two most anticipated collegiate debuts happening tonight, Monday's slate of games leaves us with much to be desired. Well, at least until midnight.

Because at midnight tonight, ESPN's College Hoops Tip-off Marathon gets underway with UCLA hosting Cal St. Fullerton. But we'll get into that preview in a bit. For now, here is a look at what may very likely be another night of blowouts.

7 pm: Miami (OH) @ Kentucky: In what may be the most anticipated debut of the year, John Wall will be playing his first real game in Kentucky blue tonight. The Wildcats could use Wall, as they looked less than impressive on the offensive end against Morehead State. UK turned the ball over 24 times and hit just 4-19 from deep. But wasn't that to be expected? There were times on Friday night that four of the five guys on the floor had never played college ball before. Wall should help the offense run more efficiently when he is in the line-up. He is a better penetrator than Bledsoe, and his ability to get into the lane and draw defenders will help to get better looks for shooters on the perimeter. Miami (OH) is known for their defensive prowess, but they lost two of their top three scorers in the off-season and are coming off of a loss to Towson in their opener.

John Wall will be making his debut tonight.
(photo credit: reflector.com)

7 pm: Penn @ Villanova: Villanova struggled in their opener, needing a hot-shooting second half from Corey Stokes to pull out a win against Farleigh Dickinson. While Scottie Reynolds struggled, Villanova did get promising performances out of freshmen guards Dominic Cheek and Maalik Wayns as well as big men Taylor King and Antonio Pena. Penn is not the same Penn you are used, and if Nova can slow down sharpshooting forward Tyler Bernardini, they should win this thing running away. Of note: Denzel Washington's son, Malcolm, is a walk-on for the Quakers.

7 pm: Coastal Carolina @ Duke: The Devils will once again be playing shorthanded as Nolan Smith (suspension) and Mason Plumlee (fractured wrist) will both miss the game. In their first game, the Dukies beat up on UNC-Greenville while playing Kyle Singler at the two for the majority of the game. The key for Duke this year may end up being Olek Czyz. The 6'7", 240 lb forward started and played 24 minutes for Coach K, notching 6 points, 6 boards, 3 assists, and 2 steals (he played all of 51 minutes as a freshman). Czyz is an athletic kid, and with Duke's lack of perimeter depth, he may get the call at the three is he can continue to produce like he did on Friday.

7:30 PM: Prairie View A&M @ Cincinnati: I have been very high on the Bearcats during the pre-season, and tonight we find out if I was right. While Prairie View, a team from the SWAC, is not exactly Kansas, it should be interesting to see how Mick Cronin decides to use Cashmere Wright, Deonta Vaughn, and the newly eligible Lance Stephenson on the court. Lance came off the bench and struggled in his first exhibition game scoring just nine points, but don't expect that to keep up.

Lance Stephenson will also be making his college debut tonight.
(photo credit: palestra.net)

8 pm: Stephen F. Austin @ Minnesota: The Lumberjacks made the NCAA tourney last season, but they lost their top two scorers and a third starter. They will have their work cut out for them against a tough Minnesota team. While Tubby's boys are without a few players due to disciplinary suspensions, the Gophers are still quite deep. With Royce White and Trevor Mbakwe out of the line-up, the Gophers are left without a true power forward. It may be a blessing in disguise, however. For starters, there is a chance that neither player suits up for Tubby this season, which means the experience for the rest of the team will be valuable. But Minnesota may end up being better with guys like senior Damian Johnson, junior Paul Carter, and freshman Rodney Williams in the line-up as they provide a ton of athleticism, especially on the defensive end (Williams and Johnson combined for 8 steals and 7 blocks in the Gopher's opener).

9 pm: Colgate @ UConn: The Huskies looked good and bad on Friday night against William & Mary. Their defensive effort was pretty solid, as Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson were a terror at the front of their 2-2-1 press. Dyson, in particular, looked like an all-american, finishing with 27 points, 8 assists, and 4 steals as he sliced through the Tribe's defense at will. The issue with the Huskies is the offensive end. They have no one that you would describe as a shooter, and as the Tribe did all Monday night, teams are going to sit back in a zone against the Huskies, cutting down guard penetration and daring them to shoot. If Colgate, who returns their top three scorers, can force the Huskies into a half court game, don't be shocked if this group can hang with UConn for a while.

Other notables:

• 5:30 pm: Milwaukee vs. Western Kentucky in Baton Rouge
• 7:00 pm: Jacksonville @ Florida State
• 7:00 pm: Georgia Southern @ South Carolina
  
• 7:30 pm: St. Francis (PA) @ Notre Dame
• 7:30 pm: Virginia @ South Florida
• 8:00 pm: Indiana State @ LSU
• 8:00 pm: Alabama State @ Ole Miss
• 8:00 pm: Lipscomb @ Vanderbilt
• 11:00 pm: Texas State @ Arizona State
  

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Lance Stephenson cleared to play

Over the summer, if someone had asked you to name the recruit the least likely to be granted full eligibility by the NCAA, who would you have named?

Some would have said Renardo Sidney, who has yet to be cleared by the NCAA. A few probably would have mentioned John Wall, who received a one game (plus an exhibition) suspension. No one would have said Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, who was held out of UConn's first exhibition, or Deniz Kilicli, who was suspended for WVU's first 20 games.

Lance Stephenson has been cleared by the NCAA.
(photo credit: Nathan Blue)

How many would have said Lance Stephenson?

We all know the issues he had surrounding him during his recruitment. No one wanted him. It got to the point where it seemed like he was trying to recruit coaches to offer him a scholarship. This is the all-time leading scorer in the history of New York high school basketball, not some schlub that averaged 10 ppg as a high school senior.

Well, as of today, anyone that said Stephenson would have been wrong.

The talented, 6'5" scoring guard has been fully cleared by the NCAA to participate in games, meaning that, barring something unforeseen, Born Ready will be ready to play come Cinci's first game Nov. 16th versus Prarie View A&M.

I'm telling you, do not sleep on the Bearcats this season. Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn will form one of the best 1-2 scoring punches in the country, and with a big and deep front line and point guard Cashmere Wright finally healthy, this Cinci team is a sleeper to win the Big East.
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2009-2010 College Basketball Season Preview: Freshman

In the one-and-done era of college basketball, the role of freshman has begun to change. No longer are they brought in to school to develop into superstars. Instead, many of the best are expected to star for and carry their respective programs from day one.

Think Greg Oden and Mike Conley, or Michael Beasley, or Kevin Durant.

But there are still plenty of coaches who recruit to fill a hole in their line-upor simply have enough talent on their roster that the freshman are not going to be asked to do more play a role, regardless of their talent level.

These are the Jrue Holidays and the Ed Davis's of the world.

Who will be this season's freshman stars? Which freshman will play the most important role's for their teams?

IMPACT FRESHMAN:

• John Wall, Kentucky: Everyone in the country should know by now what John Wall is capable of (Jerry Stackhouse sure does). Wall is a big, athletic point guard with the ability to get by just about any defender on the perimeter and finish above the rim. Wall also has the ability to find an open man if he draws an extra defender. He isn't the greatest shooter in the world, but he is effective enough that it deserves respect. Wall is the perfect fit as a guard in John Calipari's dribble-drive offense, and while he may not be the best player on Kentucky (that honor goes to Patrick Patterson until further notice), he will arguably be their most important.

John Wall will be a star from day one.
(photo credit: WUOG)

• Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech: Many people (including myself) are predicting the Yellow Jackets to be much improved over last season's 2-14 team. Favors is the main reason for that. He could use some polish on his offensive game, but his athleticism and strength will allow him to succeed at this level. Teaming with Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech will have a front line that few teams will be able to match-up with.
• Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton, Texas: Texas will have one of the biggest and best front lines in the country this season, but with the departure of AJ Abrams, the biggest question for Rick Barnes team is going to be where they get their perimeter scoring from. Bradley and Hamilton were two of the most highly sought after recruits in the nation, and their ability to create points (and make shots) from the perimeter will go a long way in determining whether Texas is going to be a good team or a great team.
• Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati: Stephenson's high school troubles were well-documented over the past year. From an overbearing father to questions regarding his eligibility to an arrest for allegedly groping a female classmate, "Born Ready" became the pariah of the 2009 recruiting class. He ended up at Cincinnati, which is happens to be a great fit for him. Stephenson may be the best all-around scorer in the class of '09, and when paired with senior Deonta Vaughn, he gives Mick Cronin arguably the best 1-2 punch in the Big East.
• Abdul Gaddy, Washington: Gaddy, like Stephenson, had a roller-coaster recruitment. Many originally thought he was destined for Memphis, but after a booster (who happened to be the CEO of FedEx) placed a call to Gaddy's mother (who is a customer service rep for FedEx), the Tigers seemed to back off his recruitment a bit. Gaddy then committed to Arizona, but backed out as a result of the changeover that program is going through. He ended up at U-Dub, where he will thrive in the uptempo system Lorenzo Romar runs. More importantly, his addition will allow Isaiah Thomas to get more minutes playing off the ball where is more effective.

Gaddy may be the best guard in the Pac-10 this year.
(photo credit: ESPN)

• Kenny Boynton, Florida: Billy Donovan's team lost Nick Calathes to Greece during the off-season, which left a gaping hole at the lead guard spot. While Boynton has a very different skill set than Calathes, he should come in and provide the Gators with a dominant perimeter scorer that can pay either guard spot.

MOST IMPORTANT FRESHMAN

• Keith "Tiny" Gallon and Tommy Mason-Griffin, Oklahoma: Both of these freshman will play very important roles for Jeff Capel. Gallon is a big body that will be relied upon to replace some of the production the Sooners lost with the Brothers Griffin leaving. Mason-Griffin is a tough point guard that can run a team, lead a break, and create scoring opportunities for his teammates. Oklahoma's biggest deficiency last season was their lack of a true point guard, and this addition will allow Willie Warren to slide over to the off-guard spot where he can focus on being a scorer.
• Andre Dawkins, Duke: Dawkins may actually be the most important freshman in the country. Duke was looking at coming into this season with just two guards on their roster, but Dawkins, who was originally committed to the Blue Devils for the class of '10, was heading into his fifth year as a high schooler. By taking summer school classes, Dawkins was able to graduate a year early and enroll at Duke. Not only will he provide some much needed back court depth, Dawkins can play. A big time athlete, he is able to provide a scoring punch on the perimeter for Coach K. His size may be his most important tool, as he will be able to play the two, allowing Jon Scheyer to slide over to the point, where he was more effectice this past season. If Dawkins lives up to his hype, Duke should be able to compete for the ACC crown.
• Dante Taylor, Pitt: Taylor will be instrumental in keeping Pitt's streak on NCAA Tournament appearances intact. After losing their entire starting front line (Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, and Tyrell Biggs), there are going to be plenty of minutes and shots available for Taylor. Coming into a program known for their grit in the paint, Taylor will have a lot of pressure on him to produce immediately. The McDonald's all-american should be up to the task.
• Alex Oriakhi, UConn: Like Taylor, Oriakhi is going to have some big shoes to fill along UConn's front line. Oriakhi is not the prototypical UConn center we have become accostomed to. Much less athletic and no where near as good of a shot blocker as guys like Emeka Okafor, Hasheem Thabeet, or Josh Boone, Oriakhi is more of a Jeff Adrien - a workhorse in the paint that will be a load to handle on the glass. He should see minutes right away as UConn's front court will be wide open this season, and if he is able to handle the rigors of a Big East schedule, the Huskies should not experience the drop-off they usually do after a Final Four run.
• John Jenkins, Vanderbilt: While Vanderbilt did not have a great season in '08-'09, they do return everyone off of that team. One of their biggest issues last season, however, was the lack of a scoring punch on the perimeter. Jenkins will provide that, as he may already be the best shooter in the country. Adding Jenkins to a team with AJ Ogilvy, Jeff Taylor, and Jermaine Beal makes the Commodores a sleeper in the loaded SEC East.

John Jenkins will be one of the best shooters in the country as a freshman.
(photo credit: Station Camp Basketball)

• Noel Johnson, Clemson: Clemson will begin this season without a proven scorer or shooter on their perimeter as KC Rivers graduated and Terrence Oglesby has left to play pro ball in Norway. Johnson, who originally committed to USC before the Trojans meltdown, will be the guy Oliver Purnell looks to as a replacement. He is a shooter with deep range and has shown the ability to create for himself when he puts the ball on the floor. The biggest question mark thus far will be his ability to play Clemson's full court press, but given his length and athleticism that should not be a problem if he commits himself
• Peyton Siva, Louisville: With Terrence Williams and Earl Clark leaving, Edgar Sosa is left as the only kid on the Cardinals roster with the ability to create offensively in the half court. As you know, Sosa has been wildly inconsistent during his three seasons in Louisville, which is why Siva is so important. Siva joins Pitino's program with a reputation for being able to ceate scoring opportunities for both himself and his teammates. If Sosa is unable to handle his role as the lead playmaker on this team, look for Siva to slide in and play a major role.
  
• Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, Illinois: The Illini leaned so heavily on seniors Chester Frazier and Trent Meachem last season. Not so much in their ability to score, as big men Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale both developed into solid scoring threats. It was the little things. Those two defended, they knocked down open shots, and most importantly they were leaders. It is the little things that Bruce Weber will be looking for from Paul and Richardson. While Paul is probably a better offensive player at this point in their respective careers, it is Richardson's defense and toughness that Weber will covet. If these two can effectively replace the departed Illini back court, it will go a long way towards keeping Illinois out of the middle of the pack in a very good Big Ten.
  

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2009-2010 Team Preview: Cincinnati Bearcats

2008-2009 Record: 18-14, 8-10 Big East (t-9th)

Key Losses: Mike Williams (9.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Alvin Mitchell (6.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg)

Key Returners: Deonta Vaughn (15.3 ppg, 4.7 apg), Yancy Gates (10.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg), Dion Dixon (7.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

Newcomers: Lance Stephenson, Ibrahima Thomas, Cashmere Wright

Senior Deonta Vaughn will lead the Bearcats in '09-'10.
(photo credit: ESPN)

Mick Cronin's 2009-2010 Bearcat team will be by far the most talented in his four years at Cincinnati. It starts with senior Deonta Vaughn, a potential first round pick who just may be the best player in the Big East you've never heard of. Vaughn is an explosive scorer (15.7 ppg for his career) whose offense is based around his ability to hit the three. When he gets hot, going for 30 is not an uncommon occurence. But he isn't just a shooter; Vaughn is able to put the ball on the floor and either get to the rim or draw an extra defender and find an open man.

Vaughn's numbers dipped quite a bit during his junior season, however (17.3 ppg to 15.3 ppg; 40% 3's to 34% 3's; 1.36 pps to 1.22 pps). Thanks to an injury to Cashmere Wright, a freshman who was expected to start at the point, Vaughn was forced to play out of position - he is much more effective as a scorer when he can play off the ball. The other issue was there really was not another player on the Bearcats that opponents had to be afraid of on the perimeter. Every night, he would face defenses completely geared towards slowing him down.

That will change this year. Not only is Wright returning from injury, but the Bearcats also added all-world recruit Lance Stephenson to the mix. I know that Stephenson is a freshman, but he already is as talented a scorer as there is in the country; he's the all-time leading in points scored in the state of New York. There may not be a more potent 1-2 punch in the country, let alone in the Big East. The Bearcats will also have a lot of back court depth, as juniors Larry Davis and Rashad Bishop, sophomore Dion Dixon, and freshman Sean Kilpatrick will all compete for minutes.

As ridiculous as it may sound, Wright may be the most valuable of the three starting guards. There really is not another point guard on the Bearcat roster. Sure, Vaughn can slide over and do a serviceable job, but having your senior leader playing out of position (especially on a team with this much talent) is less than ideal. Wright was a top 100 recruit before hurting his knee, but he will be entering into this season with no college basketball experience after rehabbing a knee for a year. So while he probably will take a while to get back to his pre-injury form, the Bearcats will not need much more out of Wright than to avoid turnovers and get the ball to Stephenson and Vaughn in places where they can score.

Up front Cinci will be strong as well. Yancy Gates, a sophomore who entered Cincinnati with a lot of hype but had an up-and-down first season, could be headed for a breakout year. He is a load to handle on the block and when he goes to the glass hard, but he was incredibly inconsistent finishing in and around the basket. The biggest issue is that Gates is a bit of a head case, allowing his emotions to get the best of him at times. They do lose Mike Williams, a workhorse in the paint who decided not to apply for a fifth year of eligibility, but senior Steve Toyloy should be more than ready to fill in his shoes.

The x-factors up front will be seven foot junior Anthony McClain and 6'11" transfer Ibrahima Thomas. Thomas averaged 8.3 ppg and 3.9 rpg in seven games with Oklahoma State last year before he decided to transfer. He will be eligible to play after the fall semester ends, and his ability to hit shots from the perimeter could make him an excellent compliment to Gates on the inside. McClain has all the length in the world, but he has yet to prove he has the strength, coordination, and ability to be a significant factor at this level.

I do foresee one major problem. Stephenson and Vaughn are both volume shooters, meaning they take a lot of shots. Will there be enough shots for both of them? Will Stephenson be able to defer to the senior Vaughn, or vice versa if Stephenson turns out to be an all-american at this level? If Gates continues to develop, will he be able to handle being the third or fourth option?

Outlook: With just Deonta Vaughn and Lance Stephenson on the roster, the Bearcats could probably make a run at the NCAA tournament. But if Cashmere Wright is healthy and effective, and Yancy Gates is a threat in the post, Cincinnati might be the third best team in the Big East. I don't think a 25 win season and a trip to the Sweet 16 is out of the question if Stephenson and Vaughn are able to co-exist. But with the number of volatile personalities on this roster, Mick Cronin will have his work cut out for him.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY: From Mick Cronin, the head coach of Cincinnati:

He said the strength and conditioning coaches tried to bring him down, but "he didn't throw up or pass out. They were impressed with his level of toughness."

I like this move. Stephenson's rep coming in is that he's a bit of a primadonna.

So what's the first thing you do?

Show him he isn't going to get babied. Show him he isn't different than any of the other players on the team. Show him you are going to need a serious work ethic if you want to play for Cinci.

How do you do that?

By busting his ass with tough workouts the first few days.

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ITS OFFICIAL: LANCE STEPHENSON TO CINCINNATI: From Adam Zagoria at SNY.tv:

"They've decided. He's off to Cincinnati," said a source close to the family with direct knowledge of the decision. "It's a done deal. I am certain of this."

The 6-foot-5, 200-pound Stephenson and his family took an official visit to Cincinnati this past weekend, and by all accounts,it went well. He played pickup with the team and toured the campus.

Lincoln coach Dwayne "Tiny" Morton confirmed the commitment via text message. Asked if Stephenson was going to Cincinnati, Morton said, "Yes."

This is a huge signing for Cincinnati, as his gives them arguably the best backcourt in the league with Stephenson joining forces with Deonta Vaughn, Cashmere Wright, and Rashad Bishop.

You know that already though (because I told you yesterday).

An interesting subplot in this decision is that Cincinnati is willing to take on Stephenson, a guy who has a bit of baggage. I know Bob Huggins got a DUI, but wasn't part of the reason he was let go by the school because of his recruiting, specifically the quality of the characters he was bringing in? According to RTC, this may be because Cinci recently found themselves a new president. Continue reading...

Lance Stephenson to Cincinnati?

That's what Adam Zagoria is reporting.

And Lance could sign as early as tomorrow. He has been adamant about not choosing a school until after his legal issues are cleared up (his court date is today).

If Stephenson does, in fact, head to Cincinnati (he was on campus for a visit this weekend), it will give the Bearcats arguably the best 1-2 scoring punch in the Big East between Stephenson and senior Deonta Vaughn. Combine those two with sophomore Yancy Gates, Oklahoma State transfer Ibrahima Thomas, and PG Cashmere Wright, who is coming off of a knee injury, and Cinci looks like a team that can compete for the Big East title.

There have been a couple other schools to join into the recruiting process of late, including Pitt, UNC-Charlotte, and Mizzou. Memphis and Arizona are also still possible destinations. Continue reading...

Where will Lance Stephenson end up?

One of the most intriguing plot lines of this off-season has been Lance Stephenson's recruitment. If you read this blog, you should know who Lance Stephenson is already - a consensus top 10 recruit that has led Lincoln High School to four straight NYC PSAL titles, is the all-time leading scorer in the state of New York, and is considered by some to be the most talented player to ever come out of Coney Island. He's been on the national radar since he went toe-to-toe with OJ Mayo as a rising freshman in high school.

But no colleges seem to want him, which is incredible considering Renardo Sidney, who has just as much baggage and controversy surrounding his high school days, landed on his feet (for now) at Mississippi State.

Lance Stephenson led Lincoln to four straight PSAL titles
and is the all-time leading scorer in New York.
(photo credit: SLAM)

It is understandable, however. This morning, the New York Daily News had an article discussing the issues surrounding Stephenson, of which there are many. He is not the easiest player to coach (Stephenson was left off last summer's national team because the coaching staff was worried about his ability to be a team player).

That's just the tip of the iceberg.

- Stephenson was filmed in an internet TV show BornReady.tv that was eventually aired on MTV2, which has led to questions regarding his status as an amateur.

- Stephenson and a Lincoln teammate are currently facing sexual assault charges stemming from an incident in October.

- On his recruiting trip to Maryland, Stephenson took a tour of the Under Armour facility, which was led by a Maryland booster and can be considered a recruiting violation.

- Lance Stephenson Sr. has proven to be very difficult to deal with during the recruiting process of Junior.

- There are some serious doubts as to whether Stephenson is even going to be cleared academically by the NCAA.

What does all this mean? Lance Stephenson has lost almost all of his suitors. Maryland, Florida, Arizona, Kansas, even St, John's, all rumored to be recruiting Stephenson heavily, have pulled out of the chase. Memphis is still in the hunt, but rumors have started to surface that the Tigers are pursuing former USC commit Derrick Williams with their last open scholarship.

There are still a few mid-major suitors (Florida International and Isiah Thomas comes to mind), but it is looking more and more likely that Stephenson is going to have to head to Europe for a season.

There are two ways to look at this. First of all, this could actually be a good thing for Stephenson as a player. I have not seen Stephenson play on anything more than a highlight tape (which is not a good way to scout a player), but by all accounts he is a fantastic scorer, and some reports have said he would be the best offensive player in college basketball next season. If he does end up in college, especially if it is a place like Florida International, odds are that Stephenson will dominate. For a kid with attitude and cockiness issues, that is the last thing in the world you want to have happen.

But let's say Stephenson goes to Europe. He won't be playing against over-matched 19 and 20 year olds. Rather, he will be going up against professionals, grown men that have NBA aspirations and would love nothing more than to plant an elbow square on the chops of a cocky young buck like Stephenson. Putting 40 on Jamal Crawford in the Rucker League is much different than trying to learn a system, play within a system, and put up points against a set defense. Stephenson could use a heaping helping of humility, and as Brandon Jennings proved this past season, heading overseas as a 19 year old is a quick way to get humbled.

Stephenson has been in the spotlight throughout his high school career.
(photo credit: gunninmovie.com)

There is another way to look at this. Let's say Stephenson ends up being forced to spend the year abroad because no school will take on his risk (the same goes for Sidney if he is ruled ineligible). Would this not be a great cautionary tale, especially if the year out of the spotlight has negative consequences for either player's draft stock in 2010?

Think about it. If Stephenson dominates the college game for a year, his face is all over Sportscenter every day and the public will be seeing him drop 25 or 30 a night. He will have a profile here, and fans will be calling for their team to pick him.

But if he goes to Europe, has a mediocre season as a reserve (a la Jennings), will NBA scouts still be fawning over him, especially in a draft class next year that looks to be loaded? Maybe, maybe not, but it is almost a guarantee that he will slide a bit in the draft as a result, costing himself a bunch of guaranteed money.

Worst case scenario, Stephenson (or Sidney) goes the way of Lenny Cooke (or Ousmane Cisse).

Who are they?

My point exactly.

Now I am going to preface this by saying the last thing I want is for this to sound like I'm rooting for a couple of 18 year olds to fail, because that is not at all true. But couldn't this be a good thing for the college game? If Stephenson is never heard from again, would he not be the perfect poster boy for the dangers of pushing the boundaries of amateurism as a high school standout?

Think about it like this. Right now, there really are no repercussions for guys like OJ Mayo or Derrick Rose, guys that break the rules (alledgedly) coming up and expect their schools and former teammates to pay the price for them.

Maybe a fall from grace by a "sure-fire" NBA star is what it will take to convince people that it is not a good idea to bend the rules of recruiting and amateurism during their high school years.

Maybe seeing two more of our most talented youngsters showcasing their skills abroad will help to change the one-and-done rule.

Or, maybe it will stay in our collective consciousness for a while before the general public moves on, and five years from now college basketball bloggers will be wary of a misguided young star becoming the next Lance Stephenson.

Lance who?

Exactly.

Continue reading...

5/14 Some Links, Some News

Slow day in college hoops, which works out well for us because the internet is out (apparently RCN is just as terrible as Comcast). Anyway, just some news and notes to get you caught up on:

- So we may know why Isiah Thomas brushed off so many local kids: he is trying to get Born Ready aka Lance Stephenson and Latavious Williams, both top 20 recruits nationally, to come to FIU. Stephenson seems interested (although contrary to rumors, it seems like Arizona may still be a possibility), and Williams is expected to decide between Zeke, Memphis, Georgetown, and Kansas State soon.

- Greg Paulus will be heading home to play football at Syracuse. I wonder how Cuse fans will treat him. Wait, does Cuse football actually have fans?

- Deshawn Painter, a 6'9" forward from Hargrave Military Academy and a former Florida signee, has committed to NC State.

- Washington State coach Ken Bone has inked a seven year deal that will pay him $650,000 the first year. Continue reading...

How good of a recruiter is Calipari?

First, he lost Xavier Henry to Kansas. Then, he lost Nolan Dennis to Baylor.

Now, it seems as if he may be losing John Wall to ... Duke? According to Wall handler confidant Brian Clifton, Coach K laid down a very impressive speech when the two met last week. Is it enough to woo Wall?

Maybe not.

(photo credit: ESPN)

Simply put, Calipari's last two point guard recruits ended up as the #1 pick in the draft (and in the national title game) and as a consensus first round lock. Coach K's? They have yet to get past the Sweet 16, were both benched for Jon Scheyer/Elliot Williams, and one may even end up playing quarterback for Michigan Syracuse.

Results speak for themselves.

Wall is supposed to be narrowing his list of eight schools down to three or four by Monday.

In other recruiting news, it seems that Lance Stephenson is now going to be choosing between St. John's and Maryland. Maryland seems like the obvious choice, but if Greivis Vazquez doesn't stay in the draft, will there be enough shots available for a one-and-done guy like Stephenson? Continue reading...

Xavier and CJ Henry to Kansas

Jeff Goodman is reporting that both Xavier Henry (the #3 recruit in the country according to Rivals) and his brother CJ, who just finished a season at Memphis, have decided to attend Kansas. Xavier originally committed to Memphis, but was allowed out of his LOI when Calipari left for Kentucky. During his original recruitment, Kansas (where Henry's father went to school) and Memphis were the final two.

If they weren't already, this makes Kansas easily the favorite for the 2010 national title. They return just about everyone of significance (including probable all-americans Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins), and add Henry, who is the dominant wing scorer they were missing last season.

The ripples of this decision may be felt as far away as Queens, NY. Many thought that Lance Stephenson would be headed to Kansas, but if Henry does in fact end up there, it looks like the NYC prodigy will end up somewhere else. If I am Norm Roberts, I am doing everything I can to get "Born Ready" in a Johnnies uniform next season. The kid does have some character issues, but he is a program changer that can push St. John's back into relevance in the Big East. Continue reading...

John Wall is Pretty Good at Basketball, and Lance Stephenson has a TV Show

I'm not always the biggest fan of highlight mixtapes.

Yes, they are, most of the time, an absolute joy to watch.

But they are far from the best way to gauge the ability of a high school kid. Watching two minutes worth of clips of the absolute best plays this kid has made over the course of a season does not tell you enough about the player. Hell, you could have put together a two minute highlight tape of me in high school that would have made it look like I was a scholarship player (I'll tell you a secret - I wasn't).

You don't see the player's decision-making ability, his on-the-ball or weak side defensive ability, or his all-around offensive game (let's just say it is rare to see a player sliding over to take a charge or pulling up for a 12 foot jumper in the lane on one of these highlight packages).

That said, I just watched the John Wall youtube mixtape that has been spreading through the interwebs.

He's going to be a star (video after the jump):



Wall, who is Rivals #1 overall recruit for the class of '09, has yet to decide on a school (and may even be eligible for the Draft because he is a fifth year senior in high school).

Wall isn't the only top prospect still undecided on where he will attend school.

Lance Stephenson, who is a consensus top 10 recruit and, like Wall, has yet to sign with a college for next season. But he has signed on for a TV deal.

I don't know how we missed this (oh yeah, it was right in the middle of the NCAA Tournament), but the former web series "Born Ready" (titled after Stephenson's nickname) has been picked up by MTV 2.

I haven't seen the show, but here is the trailer for it:



And in case you were wondering, here is a good read on how both Wall and Stephenson rose to prominence.

UPDATE: Figured I'd give you guys this as well - the story behind the notorious battle that OJ Mayo had with Stephenson during the '05 ABCD Camp.
Continue reading...