Breaking Down: Jared Cunningham vs. John Jenkins

There is little question that John Jenkins is one of the best pure shooters in the country. As Luke Winn described him in a column today, "Jenkins is a gunner with a projectible NBA skill -- the ability to run off screens and drill threes with very little space between him and a defender." The standard cliche involving sharpshooters is that you are surprised when they miss, and there may not be a player in the country this season that proves that axiom more than Jenkins.

We saw Jenkins at his finest against NC State. He finished with 28 points on 10-16 shooting from the floor and 4-9 shooting from beyond the arc, including two jumpers where his toe was on the three point line. But against Oregon State, Jenkins was held in check. He had 14 points on 5-13 shooting and didn't even attempt a shot in the final 6:55 of the game.

"We don't just guard our man, we guard the other team," Oregon State head coach Craig Robinson said after the game. "We're focused on the guys that can hurt us and we try and make sure that everybody's aware of that. And we have Jared Cunningham, Ahmad Starks, Roberto Nelson and Challe Barton, who are four guards that I think I can put on anybody for some amount of time and hold them at bay."


While that sounds nice to say, the simple fact is that for the 71 minutes that Jenkins was on the court at the IZOD Center, the only person that had any chance of slowing him down was Cunningham. Jenkins only scored eight points when Cunningham was on the court: he scored an uncontested layup on a leak out, he hit a three early in the second half when Cunningham lost focus and helped down on a driver and he hit a three with 6:55 left in the game when Barton was forced to switch onto Jenkins when Jenkins beat him down court. The other two threes that Jenkins hit were when Roberto Nelson was guarding him.

In other words, Cunningham didn't allow Jenkins to make one shot in a half court setting when he was guarding him man-to-man. He also collected four of his seven steals by defending Jenkins closely coming off of screens and forced another ball to be thrown away when Jenkins tried to curl tightly off of a down screen.

"He's real good using those screens," Cunningham said. "He's a great player. The team told me to focus in on him and just to stop him early and try to force other players to score."

What Cunningham did best was keep Jenkins from being able to curl off of down screens. He's a terrific athlete with excellent anticipation, meaning that he was able to not only trail Jenkins closely, but he wedged himself between Jenkins and the screener.

The Commodores love to run Jenkins off of double screens, and as you see here, Cunningham didn't give Jenkins any space around either of the screens, forcing Jenkins to catch the ball 35 feet from the basket, forcing a turnover. In the first picture, Jenkins is in the corner. In the second picture, he's running off of the second screen (click the images to enlarge):





In contrast, take a look at how much space Lorenzo Brown, a guard for NC State, gives Jenkins coming off of the double screen:





Jenkins isn't only a catch-and-shoot player. He's improved his ability not only to curl off of a screen and get to the rim, but to use his dribble to create an open look. In this clip from the NC State game, Jenkins hits the first of two back-to-back step-back jumpers:



But against Jared Cunningham, Jenkins wasn't able to use his dribble. In this clip, he ends up turning the ball over. It was the only turnover he had trying to beat Cunningham off the dribble, but it was also one of the only times he actually decided to try and beat Cunningham off the bounce:



These are just isolated examples of what happened in both games, but they are single possessions that represent precisely how each team as -- or, in the Wolfpack's case, wasn't -- able to defend Jenkins.
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Vanderbilt will be stacked next year, but will they win?

While Kentucky had three players declare for the NBA Draft today, SEC East rival Vanderbilt got word that their big three would all be returning to school.

Fetsus Ezeli and Jeffery Taylor will be back to finish up their collegiate eligibility while John Jenkins will return for his junior campaign. Those three carried the Commodores to a 23-11 season in 2010-2011, earning a five seed in the NCAA Tournament. this news should immediately vault Vandy into the top 15 of every preseason poll. They return ten letter-winners -- including all five starters -- from a team that won 23 games and will have three potential first round picks on a roster loaded with experience.

That doesn't happen often, largely because few players pass on the opportunity to be a first round pick. Taylor could have snuck into the back end of the lottery this season. Jenkins probably would have found himself somewhere in the 20's, and Ezeli likely would have been a borderline first rounder. With how loaded next year's draft will be, its quite possible that these three cost themselves some money with this decision.


Reading through, their statements, however, its pretty obvious that the way Vandy's season ended struck a nerve with these 'Dores:

• Ezeli: "We're going to be a better team next year, and we still have a lot of unfinished business. After the loss in the tournament, I can't leave on that note. There’s no rush for me to want to leave. I want to play here with these guys, I enjoy playing for Coach Stallings and this staff, and I look forward to earning my degree."


• Jenkins: "I'm not too happy with the way the season ended in March. I think we all have a sour taste in our mouths from that experience in Denver. I love playing here, I want to get my education first, and I look forward to being a part of a great team next year."


• Taylor: "While playing in the NBA is a dream of mine, I feel like Vanderbilt is the best place for me right now. As a team, we have unfinished business on the court, and personally, I am focused on my work in the classroom and getting a degree. I love representing Vanderbilt University, and I have a lot of fun with my teammates and coaching staff and playing for the great fans at Memorial Gym. Hopefully, there will be a time when I can fulfill my dream, but right now, I'm focusing on getting better on and off the court here at Vanderbilt."

Will Vanderbilt finally be able to get over the hump?

The past two seasons and three of the last four years, the Commodores have lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament as a four or a five seed to a team from outside the six major conferences. This year, it was Richmond that beat Vanderbilt. Last year it was Murray State. All three of the players that are returning played in those two games.

So while Vandy will be absolutely loaded from a talent and experience perspective, there is something to be said for the kind of 'experience' that you have.

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- winning is a skill, a learned skill. As is performing under pressure.

Vanderbilt may be talented, but there is a legitimate question mark as to whether or not they are capable of turning that talent into success in the postseason -- and regular season, for the matter.

Only time will tell us whether that happens.

Only seven more months until the season starts!
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2/14 - College Hoops Week in Review: I hope you didn't forget Valentine's Day

Game of the Week: Wisconsin 71, Ohio State 67

Jordan Taylor provided us with the most exciting 13 minutes of basketball this season on Saturday. With Wisconsin down 47-32 after Ohio State went on a 21-6 run, the no-longer-underrated Taylor caught fire. He scored on a tough drive. Two possessions later, he knocked down a three to get the lead to ten. On Wisconsin’s next possession, he buried another three to cut Ohio State’s lead to seven. After two Mike Bruesewitz free throws and another jumper from Taylor, the Badger’s point guard found freshman John Gasser for a three that tied the game with 9:46 left.



All told, the nation's slowest team had erased a 15 point deficit on the nation's No. 1 team in 3:30. Aaron Craft did his best to keep Ohio State in the lead, scoring six of the Buckeye's next eight points as they opened up a four point lead, but Taylor had the answer. He hit a three, found Mike Bruesewitz for a three, and found Keaton Nankivil for a jumper to put Wisconsin ahead, then he capped the run with a three pointer of his own with 5:34 left in the game as the Badgers went up 60-55.

Taylor finished with 27 points and seven assists, accounting for all but six points and three assists in the final 13 minutes of the game. The court was stormed, Ohio State suffered their first loss of the season, and Taylor was Rudy'd.

Florida 61, Tennessee 60: It seems like every game played in the SEC East is a close game with an exciting finish. Florida, however, has proven to be the best in the conference at winning those close games, which is why they are currently sitting at 9-2 in the league with a two game lead. In this one, the Gators overcame a 35-29 half time deficit, winning on a tough, driving layup by Erving Walker with 14 seconds left.



Duke 79, UNC 73: Like the Wisconsin-Ohio State game, Duke-UNC didn't have a great finish, but it was quite entertaining nonetheless. The Tar Heels jumped out to a 43-27 lead in the first half, but Duke led an entertaining rally in the second half, as Seth Curry and Nolan Smith combined for 40 points after the break.

Wild finishes:

• Colorado 58, Kansas State 56: Down by two with 1.1 seconds left, Rodney McGruder hit what appeared to be a game-winning three at the buzzer. But after the refs reviewed the shot, it was obvious it came after the buzzer:

• Pitt 57, Villanova 54: Villanova had the same thing happen. The Wildcats managed to force a couple of turnovers to get back into the game, finally cutting the lead to just three on an Antonio Pena three. After another Pitt turnover, Dominic Cheek missed a three, but the rebound was kicked out to Maalik Wayns, who hit a three one second after the buzzer expired and about thirty seconds after McGruder's three was waved off.


• Rutgers 77, Villanova 76: That wasn't the only tough loss that Villanova suffered this week. Against Rutgers, the Wildcats blew a 13 points lead with five minutes left and an eight point lead with 1:50 of the block. But thanks to some hot shooting by the Scarlet Knights, they were able to get back into it. Down three, Jonathon Mitchell hit a three and was fouled with 0.8 seconds left.
  

• Rhode Island 71, Charlotte 70 OT: The Rams overcame a 40-23 second half deficit to force overtime, and in the extra frame Jamal Wilson, who had 11 points on the season coming in, scored on a put back at the buzzer to win the game.
  

• Green Bay 63, Illinois-Chicago 61 OT: Robo Kreps hit a floater at the buzzer to win a Horizon League game back on Thursday, but wait for the 1:10 mark and listen to the announcer's reaction. You'll laugh.

Players of the Week: I don't generally like giving out ties with the Weekly Awards, but four players this week gave such impressive performances, I really had no choice:

Norris Cole, Cleveland State: Cole had the line of the year so far this season, going for 41 points, 20 boards, nine assists, and three steal in a win over Youngstown State. The only other player in the last 15 years to have a 40-20 games was Blake Griffin, who had 40 points and 23 boards against Texas Tech. In a loss on Monday, Cole added 27 points, six assists, and seven boards.

John Jenkins, Vanderbilt: Jenkins was terrific in Vandy's two big wins over Alabama and Kentucky. On Tuesday against the Crimson Tide, he finished with 20 points on 5-11 shooting, but his better performance came on Saturday. With Jeff Taylor struggling, Jenkins picked up the slack, going for a career-high 32 points on 11-17 shooting while hitting six threes, many of them closely contested.

Nolan Smith, Duke: Smith has been a catalyst for the Blue Devils all season long, but never was that more evident than this week. He sparked Duke in the second half of their 81-71 road win over Miami on Sunday, finishing with 18 points and five assists despite sitting out a long stretch of the first half after being poked in the eye. On Wednesday, he scored 22 of his 34 points in the second half as Duke rallied from 16 down to knock off North Carolina.


Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin: We've already talked plenty about Taylor's play against Ohio State, both in this post and from the write-ups on Saturday. Taylor averaged 21.5 ppg and 7.5 apg in two wins this week, including 21 points and four assists during Wisconsin's comeback from 15 points down in the last 13 minutes against Ohio State.

The all-they-were-good-too team:

• G: Dwight Hardy, St. John's: Hardy has been on fire of late, and it continued this week. The senior guard has scored at least 25 points in three of his last five games, including a 33 point outburst in the Johnnie's win over UConn. He followed that up with 18 points in a win at Cincinnati. Hardy was 9-15 from three on the week.
  
• G: Ramone Moore, Temple: Moore has become Temple's start, averaging 15.0 ppg on the season. This week, he led the Owls to two wins, including a 12 point win at Dayton, by averaging 24.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 3.5 apg.
  
• F: Draymond Green, Michigan State: Have the Spartans finally turned a corner this season? The optimists say yes, and Green is a big reason why, as he notched a 15 point, 14 rebound, 10 assist triple-double in an 18 point rout of Penn State.
  
• F: Justin Harper, Richmond: In wins over GW and St. Louis this week, Harper averaged 21.0 ppg and 9.0 rpg, while shooting 14-21 from the floor and 6-10 from three.
  
• C: JaJuan Johnson, Purdue: Johnson averaged 19.5 ppg and 8.5 rpg in two wins this week for the Boilermakers.
  
• Bench: Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota (20.5 ppg, 10.5 rpg in two games this week); Reggie Jackson, Boston College (29.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 22-36 FG, 8-16 3PT); Kyle Kuric, Louisville (25.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 18-29 FG, 9-14 3PT); Malcolm Lee, UCLA (22.0 ppg in a 2-0 week); Erving Walker, Florida (20.5 ppg, game-winner versus Tennessee)
  

Team of the Week: Xavier Musketeers

The Muskies did a lot this week. They took over sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10. They put themselves into prime position for an at-large berth. And they did it by winning on the road despite not getting great performances out of Tu Holloway.

On Tuesday, X went into Athens and knocked off Georgia 65-57. Holloway led four players in double figures with 18 points, but he didn't score until there were five minutes gone in the second half. Instead, it was the play of Mark Lyons and Dante Jackson that kept Xavier in it until Holloway was able to take the game over. On Sunday, Xavier got 20 from Holloway, 19 out of Dante Jackson, and 12 points and 12 boards from Kenny Frease as they went into Pittsburgh and knocked off Duquesne, who they were tied for first place in the conference with.


Xavier still has some work to do this season. A couple of ugly early losses on their resume hurt, and the Muskies have shown they are plenty capable of losing to a team like Charlotte in league play. But it seems as if Xavier is, once again, peaking at the right time. Give credit where credit is due -- this coaching job by Chris Mack, overcoming the injuries and ineligibilities that he has had to deal with, is as good as any in the country.

Also impressive this week:

• Wisconsin and Purdue: As we mentioned earlier, the Badgers handed Ohio State their first loss of the season. They also knocked off Iowa on the road earlier in the week. The Boilermakers had an impressive win of their own on Sunday, going into Champaign and beating Illinois. They also knocked off Indiana on Tuesday in a rivalry game. It sets up a battle for second place in the conference on Wednesday, as these two teams are tied for second place, two games behind Ohio State.


• St. John's: On Thursday, the Johnnies once again proved their home court dominance with a 17 point win over UConn, their fourth impressive home win in the last five week. Then on Sunday, they went into Cincinnati and knocked off the Bearcats, landing a huge bubble victory and proving themselves capable of winning on the road.

• Vanderbilt: The Commodores went a long way towards asserting themselves as the second best team in the SEC East. Not only did they hand Alabama their first loss against the SEC East on Tuesday, they outlasted Kentucky 81-77 at home on Saturday afternoon.
  


• Pitt: Playing without the injured Ashton Gibbs, the Panthers notched two very tough road wins, knocking off West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl and then beating in state rival Villanova. The Panthers are looking more and more like the best "team" in the country.


• Georgetown: If you didn't know yet, the Hoyas are the hottest team in the country and officially back from the slump they had to start Big East play. On Wednesday, they went into the Carrier Dome and beat hated-rival Syracuse before coming home to knock off a scrappy Marquette team. The Hoyas are doing it with defense, as they have now won eight in a row.


• Duke: The Blue Devils are well on their way to erasing all memories of the humiliating defeat they suffered at the hands of St. John's. Since that loss, Duke has won four straight, including road wins at Miami and Maryland and Wednesday's rivalry matchup with North Carolina.


• Kansas: There is not a team in the country playing better basketball on the offensive end then Kansas. On Monday, they beat Missouri by 17 despite the Tigers scoring 86 on points on 51.7% shooting, putting all five starters in double figures, and turning the ball over eight times. Then on Saturday, the Jayhawks beat Iowa State by 23 despite allowing the Cyclones to knock down 14 threes.

• Old Dominion: The Monarchs won two road games this week to remain two games behind George Mason in the CAA standings, beating William & Mary and VCU, who was tied for first with the Patriots.


• Murray State: The Racers claimed sole possession of first place in the OVC with wins over Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State this week.
  


• Valpo: The Crusaders can now claim a one game lead in the loss column of the Horizon League thanks to wins over Wright State and Detroit and a loss by Cleveland State to Detroit.
  


• Montana: After losing to Weber State and Northern Arizona last week on the road, the Grizzlies came home to knock off Sacramento State and then pull into a tie for first with Northern Colorado thanks to a win on Saturday.
  

Matchups of the Week:

• 2/14 - 7:00 pm: West Virginia @ Syracuse
• 2/14 - 9:00 pm: Kansas @ Kansas State
• 2/15 - 7:00 pm: GMU @ VCU
• 2/15 - 9:00 pm: Michigan State @ Ohio State
• 2/16 - 6:30 pm: Wisconsin @ Purdue
  
• 2/16 - 7:00 pm: Georgetown @ UConn
• 2/17 - 7:00 pm: Richmond @ Temple
• 2/18 - 9:00 pm: UConn @ Louisville
• 2/19 - 12:00 pm: Pitt @ St. John's
• 2/19 - 1:00 pm: Notre Dame @ West Virginia
• 2/19 - 6:00 pm: Washington @ Arizona
• 2/19 - 9:00 pm: Utah State @ St. Mary's
• 2/20 - 1:00 pm: Ohio State @ Purdue
  
• 2/18-2/20: Bracket Busters

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2009-2010 College Basketball Season Preview: Freshman

In the one-and-done era of college basketball, the role of freshman has begun to change. No longer are they brought in to school to develop into superstars. Instead, many of the best are expected to star for and carry their respective programs from day one.

Think Greg Oden and Mike Conley, or Michael Beasley, or Kevin Durant.

But there are still plenty of coaches who recruit to fill a hole in their line-upor simply have enough talent on their roster that the freshman are not going to be asked to do more play a role, regardless of their talent level.

These are the Jrue Holidays and the Ed Davis's of the world.

Who will be this season's freshman stars? Which freshman will play the most important role's for their teams?

IMPACT FRESHMAN:

• John Wall, Kentucky: Everyone in the country should know by now what John Wall is capable of (Jerry Stackhouse sure does). Wall is a big, athletic point guard with the ability to get by just about any defender on the perimeter and finish above the rim. Wall also has the ability to find an open man if he draws an extra defender. He isn't the greatest shooter in the world, but he is effective enough that it deserves respect. Wall is the perfect fit as a guard in John Calipari's dribble-drive offense, and while he may not be the best player on Kentucky (that honor goes to Patrick Patterson until further notice), he will arguably be their most important.

John Wall will be a star from day one.
(photo credit: WUOG)

• Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech: Many people (including myself) are predicting the Yellow Jackets to be much improved over last season's 2-14 team. Favors is the main reason for that. He could use some polish on his offensive game, but his athleticism and strength will allow him to succeed at this level. Teaming with Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech will have a front line that few teams will be able to match-up with.
• Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton, Texas: Texas will have one of the biggest and best front lines in the country this season, but with the departure of AJ Abrams, the biggest question for Rick Barnes team is going to be where they get their perimeter scoring from. Bradley and Hamilton were two of the most highly sought after recruits in the nation, and their ability to create points (and make shots) from the perimeter will go a long way in determining whether Texas is going to be a good team or a great team.
• Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati: Stephenson's high school troubles were well-documented over the past year. From an overbearing father to questions regarding his eligibility to an arrest for allegedly groping a female classmate, "Born Ready" became the pariah of the 2009 recruiting class. He ended up at Cincinnati, which is happens to be a great fit for him. Stephenson may be the best all-around scorer in the class of '09, and when paired with senior Deonta Vaughn, he gives Mick Cronin arguably the best 1-2 punch in the Big East.
• Abdul Gaddy, Washington: Gaddy, like Stephenson, had a roller-coaster recruitment. Many originally thought he was destined for Memphis, but after a booster (who happened to be the CEO of FedEx) placed a call to Gaddy's mother (who is a customer service rep for FedEx), the Tigers seemed to back off his recruitment a bit. Gaddy then committed to Arizona, but backed out as a result of the changeover that program is going through. He ended up at U-Dub, where he will thrive in the uptempo system Lorenzo Romar runs. More importantly, his addition will allow Isaiah Thomas to get more minutes playing off the ball where is more effective.

Gaddy may be the best guard in the Pac-10 this year.
(photo credit: ESPN)

• Kenny Boynton, Florida: Billy Donovan's team lost Nick Calathes to Greece during the off-season, which left a gaping hole at the lead guard spot. While Boynton has a very different skill set than Calathes, he should come in and provide the Gators with a dominant perimeter scorer that can pay either guard spot.

MOST IMPORTANT FRESHMAN

• Keith "Tiny" Gallon and Tommy Mason-Griffin, Oklahoma: Both of these freshman will play very important roles for Jeff Capel. Gallon is a big body that will be relied upon to replace some of the production the Sooners lost with the Brothers Griffin leaving. Mason-Griffin is a tough point guard that can run a team, lead a break, and create scoring opportunities for his teammates. Oklahoma's biggest deficiency last season was their lack of a true point guard, and this addition will allow Willie Warren to slide over to the off-guard spot where he can focus on being a scorer.
• Andre Dawkins, Duke: Dawkins may actually be the most important freshman in the country. Duke was looking at coming into this season with just two guards on their roster, but Dawkins, who was originally committed to the Blue Devils for the class of '10, was heading into his fifth year as a high schooler. By taking summer school classes, Dawkins was able to graduate a year early and enroll at Duke. Not only will he provide some much needed back court depth, Dawkins can play. A big time athlete, he is able to provide a scoring punch on the perimeter for Coach K. His size may be his most important tool, as he will be able to play the two, allowing Jon Scheyer to slide over to the point, where he was more effectice this past season. If Dawkins lives up to his hype, Duke should be able to compete for the ACC crown.
• Dante Taylor, Pitt: Taylor will be instrumental in keeping Pitt's streak on NCAA Tournament appearances intact. After losing their entire starting front line (Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, and Tyrell Biggs), there are going to be plenty of minutes and shots available for Taylor. Coming into a program known for their grit in the paint, Taylor will have a lot of pressure on him to produce immediately. The McDonald's all-american should be up to the task.
• Alex Oriakhi, UConn: Like Taylor, Oriakhi is going to have some big shoes to fill along UConn's front line. Oriakhi is not the prototypical UConn center we have become accostomed to. Much less athletic and no where near as good of a shot blocker as guys like Emeka Okafor, Hasheem Thabeet, or Josh Boone, Oriakhi is more of a Jeff Adrien - a workhorse in the paint that will be a load to handle on the glass. He should see minutes right away as UConn's front court will be wide open this season, and if he is able to handle the rigors of a Big East schedule, the Huskies should not experience the drop-off they usually do after a Final Four run.
• John Jenkins, Vanderbilt: While Vanderbilt did not have a great season in '08-'09, they do return everyone off of that team. One of their biggest issues last season, however, was the lack of a scoring punch on the perimeter. Jenkins will provide that, as he may already be the best shooter in the country. Adding Jenkins to a team with AJ Ogilvy, Jeff Taylor, and Jermaine Beal makes the Commodores a sleeper in the loaded SEC East.

John Jenkins will be one of the best shooters in the country as a freshman.
(photo credit: Station Camp Basketball)

• Noel Johnson, Clemson: Clemson will begin this season without a proven scorer or shooter on their perimeter as KC Rivers graduated and Terrence Oglesby has left to play pro ball in Norway. Johnson, who originally committed to USC before the Trojans meltdown, will be the guy Oliver Purnell looks to as a replacement. He is a shooter with deep range and has shown the ability to create for himself when he puts the ball on the floor. The biggest question mark thus far will be his ability to play Clemson's full court press, but given his length and athleticism that should not be a problem if he commits himself
• Peyton Siva, Louisville: With Terrence Williams and Earl Clark leaving, Edgar Sosa is left as the only kid on the Cardinals roster with the ability to create offensively in the half court. As you know, Sosa has been wildly inconsistent during his three seasons in Louisville, which is why Siva is so important. Siva joins Pitino's program with a reputation for being able to ceate scoring opportunities for both himself and his teammates. If Sosa is unable to handle his role as the lead playmaker on this team, look for Siva to slide in and play a major role.
  
• Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, Illinois: The Illini leaned so heavily on seniors Chester Frazier and Trent Meachem last season. Not so much in their ability to score, as big men Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale both developed into solid scoring threats. It was the little things. Those two defended, they knocked down open shots, and most importantly they were leaders. It is the little things that Bruce Weber will be looking for from Paul and Richardson. While Paul is probably a better offensive player at this point in their respective careers, it is Richardson's defense and toughness that Weber will covet. If these two can effectively replace the departed Illini back court, it will go a long way towards keeping Illinois out of the middle of the pack in a very good Big Ten.
  

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2009-2010 Team Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores

2008-2009 Record: 19-12, 8-8 SEC (t-7th)

Key Losses: George Drake (5.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg)

Key Returners: AJ Ogilvy (15.4 ppg, 7.1 ppg), Jermaine Beal (12.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.2 apg), Jeff Taylor (12.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Brad Tinsley (11.0 ppg)

Newcomers: John Jenkins

AJ Ogilvy will anchor the Commodores, who bring back essentially everyone.
(photo credit: VUCommodores blog)

Vanderbilt brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the country last year, and when paired with veterans AJ Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal, those freshman helped lead the Commodores to a reasonably successful season given their youth. With basically everyone returning, Vandy could be a sleeper in the loaded SEC East.

Vanderbilt's success this season will start with the interior play of Ogilvy. As a freshman, Ogilvy was the horse inside for a highly ranked Vandy team. While the Commodores last season did not come near the success of that '07-'08 squad, Ogilvy continued to prove himself a force in the paint. There may not be a more skilled low post player in the country. Mechanically and fundamentally, he has all the tools you want in a back to the basket big man. Far from the world's best athlete (the biggest knock on his game is his lack of leaping ability and a slow first step), Ogilvy gets by thanks to a dazzling array of post moves. If he can continue to improve his face-up game and jumper, he could be a monster this year thriving in Vanderbilt's Princeton-style offense.

Joining Ogilvy up front is a slew of guys standing about 6'8". The best of the bunch is sophomore Jeff Taylor. Taylor, who is originally from Sweden, was one of the best freshman in the country you never heard about last year. His long, 6'7" frame already has NBA scouts drooling (he was named the best NBA prospect in the SEC by Draft Express). Taylor is a phenomenal athlete, excelling in the open floor and on the defensive end. While his skills have yet to catch up to his tools, Taylor should be effective running back door cuts and attacking the offensive glass in Kevin Stallings system. Taylor is going to be key in helping Vandy match up with the oustanding athleticism of teams like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida.

The Commodores front court will be deep this year. Junior Darshawn McClellan and sophomores Steve Tchiengang and Fetsus Ezeli were all part time starters last year. Given Ogilvy's so-so defensive ability (and the fact that he has is a bit foul prone), these three will be counted on for toughness inside, both defensively and on the glass, and their 15 combined fouls.

Senior leader Jermaine Beal will once again be the rock at the point for the Commodores. Beal is everything you look for in a point guard in this type of system. He is a good decision maker (3.2 apg, 2.0 a:t/o ratio), can create at the end of the shot clock, and last year showed the ability to be a spot-up three point shooter. He is a physical guard with a great understanding of the system and how he fits into it.

Joining him in the back court will be sophomore Brad Tinsley, who proved as a freshman to be one of the best spot-up shooters in the league as he tied a school-record of 69 3's by a freshman. That shooting prowess will help keep the floor spread for Ogilvy inside. The Commodores really have just two other returners on their perimeter - Lance Goulbourne and Charles Hinkle. Goulbourne, who is 6'8", is an athletic wing with a bit more of a polished perimeter game than Taylor. He had a promising freshman year despite a bout of mono early in the season. Hinkle is a tough defender who can guard multiple positions and will provide Stallings with the ability to use different line-ups. He is the typical glue guy most teams need.

Perhaps the x-factor for this year's team will be freshman John Jenkins. Jenkins, who was a top 25 recruit, is a big time scorer and shooter, averaging over 40 ppg as a senior in high school (he had 30 in every game). His offense is geared around his exceptional shooting ability, which extends well beyond the three point line, although he has shown some ability to put the ball on the floor and pull-up in the mid-range. He will remind a lot of Vandy fans of Shan Foster. He fills a hole for the Commodores as a big-time scorer on the wing.

Outlook: Vandy will be an interesting team to keep an eye on this season. They return basically their entire team. But so does the rest of the SEC. Case in point: while the Commodores will be a borderline top 25 team in the preseason, they are arguably the fifth best team in the SEC East. They are not only deep and talented, you would be hard-pressed to find a more balanced team in the country - a big-time low post scorer, a experienced senior leader at point, multiple shooters on the perimeter, and enough size and athleticism to match up with just about anyone. I really like this team, and would expect them to hang around the top of the SEC. 25 wins and a 4-6 seed come tournament time is not a stretch by any means.
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