No. 24: 2009-2010 Team Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini

2008-2009 Record: 24-10, 11-7 Big Ten (t-2nd)

Key Losses: Chester Frazier (5.7 ppg, 5.3 apg), Trent Meachem (10.2 ppg, 42% 3's)

Key Returners: Mike Davis (11.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg), Mike Tisdale (10.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Demetri McCamey (11.5 ppg, 4.6 apg)

Newcomers: DJ Richardson, Joseph Betrand, Tyler Griffey, Brandon Paul

Mike Davis is healthy and ready to anchor the Illini front line after breaking his ankle in June.
(photo credit: Lexington Herald-Review)

Illinois rebounded from a subpar 2007-2008 season to finish second in the Big Ten last year. The Illini lose Chester Frazier and Trent Meachem - their starting back court last season - to graduation, but return a team that has an outside shot of winning the Big Ten.

Bruce Weber is going to rely on his front court to be the constant for this team as he gets back Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale, both juniors. If there is anyone on this Illinois team with star potential, it is the 6'9" Davis. Still a bit slender for a big man in the Big Ten, Davis has a very good offensive arsenal. He has a solid face-up game with catch-and-shoot ability out to about 18 feet, and despite being unable to back down a stronger opponent, he has shown flashes of being a good low post scorer. His lack of strength makes him vulnerable at times defensively, especially down low, but he is a very good rebounder and a solid passer. With an inexperienced back court, I think Weber will run his offense through Davis. Expect the big fella to make a national name for himself this season.

Tisdale is pretty similar to Davis. Not quite the athlete that Davis is (and Davis isn't an overwhelming athlete either), the 7'1" Tisdale relies on a variety of jump hooks and 15 foot jumpers to be effective on the offensive end. Tisdale is a bit weak inside, and I'm sure Weber hopes that he can continue to develop as a defensive presence at the rim. There will be some depth in the Illini front court. Senior Dominique Keller is a 6'7" combo forward. Strong enough to bang with the big boys down low, Keller creates a match-up problem at the offensive end with his ability to knock down three's. 6'8" freshman Tyler Griffey and 6'10" junior Richard Semrau will also see minutes up front.

The back court is going to be the bigger question for the Illini. They do return Demetri McCamey and Alex Legion. McCamey, a 6'3" junior, was the Illini's leading scorer and second leading assist man, but truth be told, he was far from as productive as he could have been. McCamey had a tendency to force too many tough shots (he finished the year shooting just 31% from deep) and turn the ball over a bit more than you would like (2.4 per contest). That said, McCamey has a ton of scoring potential, and when he gets hot can easily go for 25 points. Legion is a 6'5" wing who transferred into Illinois from Kentucky and was not eligible, per transfer rules, until midway through the season. He showed some promise in his first few games, scoring 15 against Michigan State and 12 against Purdue, but he lost his rhythm and by the end of the year had mostly fallen out of the rotation. Legion is a talented kid, and with consistent minutes opening up as Frazier and Meachem move on, Legion will be relied upon for some points, be it off the bench or as a starter.

The rest of the Illinois back court will be made up of freshman. DJ Richardson and Brandon Paul are both top 50 recruits that will compete for a starting spot. Richardson, who is 6'3", is a scoring guard that is at his best when he is attacking. He does have three-point range, but his biggest asset for Weber is going to be his defensive intensity. A strong kid, Richardson has shown no issue with playing hard-nosed defense, and excels in jumping passing lanes. Paul, who is an inch taller than Richardson, is much more of a pure two guard. He isn't quite the defender Richardson is, and relies more on his jump shot. Joseph Bertrand, the third freshman, injured his knee in early September. He should be back and ready to go by the start of the season. Jeff Jordan, Michael's son, was a walk-on but left the team for academic reasons (good ones - to pursue his degree). He has toyed with the idea of returning, and if he does will provide experience, leadership, and tough defense to Weber's back court.

Outlook: With Weber's Illini teams, it has always been about defense, especially out on the perimeter where he loves to have his guards pressure the ball. With so many freshman in the back court rotation, it could take a while for Weber to get them to but into the system. The one thing those freshman are, however, is talented, and if given the opportunity I'd expect Weber to get them to succeed. A key factor will be how good of a player Davis ends up being. Will he be a 11 and 8 guy like last season, or will Davis develop into a go-to offensive player, averaging upwards of 15-16 ppg? Regardless, the Illini have enough for a top three finish in the league and a top six seed in the dance.
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Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Preview

Schedule (all games played in Missouri):

Thursday, March 5th / First Round
- Game #1: #8 Drake vs. #9 Northern Iowa
- Game #2: #7 Wichita State vs. #10 Missouri State

Friday, March 6th / Quarters
- Game #3: #1 Northern Iowa vs. Game #1 Winner
- Game #4: #4 Bradley vs. #5 Southern Illinois
- Game #5: #2 Creighton vs. Game #2 Winner
- Game #6: #3 Illinois State vs. #6 Evansville

Saturday, March 7th / Semis
- Game #7: Game #3 Winner vs. Game #4 Winner
- Game #8: Game #5 Winner vs. Game #6 Winner

Sunday, March 8th / Finals
- Game #9: Game #7 Winner vs. Game #8 winner

Favorite: It isn't a secret that the MVC tourney, commonly known as Arch Madness, is one of the best conference tourneys around. This year should, once again, be exciting. While Northern Iowa earned the #1 seed, the favorite has to be Creighton. The Bluejays have the best back court in the conference (and maybe in the midwest) with conference POY Booker Woodfox (who doubles as the nation's best three-point shooter) and last year's rookie of the year P'Allen Stinnett. They won their last 10 games, including a win at Northern Iowa and a home victory over George Mason. They also won non-conference games against New Mexico and Dayton. In fact, they were a grand total of ten seconds away (in last second losses to Arkansas-Little Rock and Nebraska) from going undefeated out of conference.

P'Allen Stinnett (top), Cavel Witter, and company look to carry their momentum into Arch Madness
(photo credit: Nati Harnik/AP)

Contenders: You have got to think that Northern Iowa, Bradley and Illinois State all have a shot at winning this thing. Bradley probably has the either path, as they avoid Creighton until the Finals. Northern Iowa won both against Illinois State during the regular season, although it was by a combined six points with one win coming in overtime. Of the three, Bradley is the only team coming in playing well. NIU has lost four of seven, ISU has lost three in a row, but Bradley has won four of their last five.

Sleeper: As much as I want to say defending champion Drake, who returns both Josh Young and Jonathon Cox, I just don't see a team that has won four games since January 11th winning four in a row in March. I am going to go with Indiana State. The Sycamores started out the season 4-19, but they have won six of their last seven to finish at 7-11 in the conference.

BIAH Prediction: Creighton. Continue reading...

Tuesday Lay-up Lines

The best game of the night comes in the Big Ten as Illinois heads to West Lafayette to take on Purdue. The Boilermakers were considered, along with Michigan State, be the preseason favorite in the conference, but few teams have played as well as the Illini have this year. Illinois is 12-1 coming into this game, and while they haven't played the toughest schedule in the world, they are coming off a recent beatdown of Missouri in St. Louis. The key to this game for Illinois will be to handle Purdue's defense, which is arguably the best in the country (well, at least the most efficient, holding opponent's to .79 points per possession). The Illini have a very balanced team, with a solid backcourt anchored by the underrated Chester Frazier and a good front line (featuring Mike Davis and 7'1" Mike Tisdale). Purdue is beat up right now (Chris Kramer has missed the last game and a half with a sprained foot, Nemanja Calasan has played just 12 minutes in the last two games because of a sore knee, and Robbie Hummel has a bad back), so if the Illini can limit their turnovers and take good shots, they have a shot at knocking off Purdue.

The rest of the night's action:

• 1:00 PM: Stetson (5-4) @ Florida (10-2)
  
• 7:00 PM: Radford (4-8) @ Wake Forest (11-0)
• 7:00 PM: Seton Hall (9-3) @ Syracuse (12-1)
• 7:00 PM: Clemson (12-0) @ South Carolina (9-1)
• 7:00 PM: UAB (8-4) @ Butler (10-1)
• 7:00 PM: George Mason (8-2) @ Dayton (11-1)
  
• 8:00 PM: Centenary (2-11) @ Missouri (10-2)
  
• 8:05 PM: Oklahoma (12-0) @ Arkansas (8-1)
• 8:05 PM: BYU (10-1) @ Tulsa (8-4)
• 9:00 PM: Albany (8-4) @ Kansas (8-3)

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Tuesday Lay-up Lines

There are three pretty good games on tonight:

• 7:00 PM: Butler (9-1) @ Xavier (9-1): Xavier was playing some of the best basketball in the country as they were 9-0 heading into their game with Duke over the weekend, but they got absolutely run off the floor against the Devils. The Musketeers struggled to get into their offensive against Duke's defensive pressure, resulting in a lot of turnovers and quick shots. Butler has been one of the surprises of the young season. After losing so much to graduation (pretty much everyone except Matt Howard), they looked to be headed for a down year. But the play of two freshman, Shelden Mack (13.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.7 apg) and Gordon Hayward (12.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg), have sent the Bulldogs right back to the top of the Horizon League. If you get ESPN U (I don't, curse you Comcast), be sure to check in on this one.
• 7:30 PM: Missouri (9-1) vs. Illinois (10-1) in St. Louis: This is a game against two of the under-the-radar power conference teams. Missouri is a team full of athletes that is going to press you for 40 minutes. They are led by DeMarre Carroll, who is averaging 17.6 ppg and 7.3 rpg. Illinois already played Clemson this year (who runs a similar "40 minutes of hell" defense) and lost 76-74 at home. Clemson forced 17 turnovers with their press. Clemson is better than Mizzou offensively, especially in the back court, and another reason they were able to beat the Illini is that Clemson got 34 points out of KC Rivers and Demontez Stitt. I'm not sure if Mizzou's back court can match that output. Of note - Illinois center Mike Davis had 28 and 8 in that game, with the majority of those coming on dunks when Illinois broke the press. If he is on your fantasy team, he deserves a start tonight.
• 9:30 PM: Texas (9-2) @ Wisconsin (9-2): The Badgers have struggled thus far this season. They lack offensive firepower. That will be a big problem against a tough Texas defense. That said, Wisconsin is so good at the Kohl Center. The biggest issue in this game is how will Wisconsin stop AJ Abrams. Michigan State held him to eight points by having Travis Walton chase him around screens all game. Trevon Hughes is an excellent defender, but he is also Wisconsin's best offensive option. Do you risk tiring him out chasing Abrams? I think Texas pulls this win out.
  

The rest of the night's action:

• 2:00 PM: Idaho State (2-8) @ Arizona State (9-1)
• 7:30 PM: Florida International (4-8) @ Georgetown (9-1)
• 8:00 PM: Portland State (8-3) @ Gonzaga (8-2)
• 9:00 PM: Southeastern Louisiana (6-4) @ Minnesota (10-0): Upset watch here. This is a let down game for the Gophers against a Lions team that took Arkansas to OT on the road and lost to Texas Tech by 11 on the road. Minnesota better not come out too cocky in this one.
• 10:00 PM: Kansas (8-2) @ Arizona (7-3): Not that often that a game between these two teams comes with neither of them ranked. Both squads could really use this win. Arizona beat Gonzaga, but then got smacked on the road against UNLV. Kansas rebounded from an ugly loss to UMass by beating Temple. Best match-up of the day should be seeing Jordan Hill go against Cole Aldrich.
  
• 10:30 PM: Wyoming (9-1) @ UCLA (8-2)
• 11:00 PM: Stanford (7-0) @ Santa Clara (5-6)
  

There are not games being played on Wednesday or Thursday, and only one on Friday. UConn will host Fairfield at 7:00 PM. Continue reading...

Illinois State: 2008-2009 Team Preview

2007-2008 Record: 25-10, 13-5 MVC (2nd)

Key Losses: Anthony Slack (9.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg), Dom Johnson (8.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg), Boo Richardson (6.9 ppg, 3.8 apg)

Key Returnees: Osiris Eldridge (15.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Dinma Odiakosa (6.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg)

Newcomers: Lloyd Phillips, Keyon Smith, Champ Oguchi, Landon Shipley, Bobby Hill, Ty Modupe, Jeremy Robinson, Kellen Thornton

Although Illinois State returns MVC player of the year runner-up Osiris Eldridge, they still lose a lot of talent from a team that was one of the last few out of last year's NCAA tournament - four of their top six players from last season graduated. But the Redbirds also bring in a deep and talented class of recruits. The class is headed by two guards, Lloyd Phillips and Keyon Smith. Phillips is a scoring guard out of Western Community College and Keyon Smith is a quick PG who led Chicago's Simeon High School (Derrick Rose anyone?) to three consecutive state finals, winning two of them. Combine those two with returner Emmanuel Holloway and transfers Landon Shipley (Austin Peay) and Champ Oguchi (Oregon), and ISU's back court, although a bit inexperienced, is pretty talented.

As I said before, the Redbirds also get Eldridge back for at least one more year. Eldridge is the most talented player in the conference. He can really do it all. A 6'3" athletic slasher, Eldridge can get to the rim just as well as he can shoot it from deep (84 3's, 39%). He is also a good defender and a solid playmaker. Eldridge should win POY in the MVC, and has a shot to make an all-american team as well.

ISU's bigger issues will come in the front court, where they lose a lot of height. They do get back Dinma Odiakosa and Brandon Sampay (once he returns from hip surgery), but neither of them are really a shot blocking of defensive presence. Getting Bobby Hill back will help. Hill, if you remember, was on the Redbirds roster (and started eight games) in the 2006-07 season and due to personal issues he spent a year a a community college, but is now transferring back in. The 6'6" Hill plays bigger than his size, but is also mobile enough to defend on the perimeter. Look for a big year out of him.

Outlook: Illinois State brings in a talented group to put around Eldridge, but inexperience could hurt this team. Based on talent alone, they are probably one the favorites to win the league. Continue reading...