Previewing the Madness: The Horizon League Tournament

There may not have been a more difficult league to figure out this season than the Horizon. Butler was the overwhelming favorite coming in, Cleveland State has the best player in the conference, but the No. 1 seed in the league tournament ended up going to a team that finished 5-7 in non-conference play with more than a couple of ugly losses.

Unless Butler can somehow manage to sneak in, the Horizon is a one-bid league this year. And while the overall level of basketball being played in the conference is pretty close to where it was last year -- with the obvious caveat that Butler is now merely mortal -- the competitiveness has gone no where. The leagues where upsets and unpredictability abound are always the best tournaments to watch.

Where: Campus sites

When: March 1st-8th

Final: March 8th, 9:00 pm ESPN


Favorites: Butler Bulldogs

They may be the No. 2 seed, but it is almost impossible to pick against Butler here. Let's ignore the obvious -- the core of this team made it to the NCAA Tournament title game last year -- because, well, that's obvious. Butler has the two best players in the league not named Norris Cole in Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard. They've won seven straight games coming in, which is why they were able to earn one of the Horizon's double byes despite starting out league play 6-5. An interesting storyline that could develop here is that Butler, who has played their way onto the bubble with this winning streak, seems for a quarterfinal matchup with Cleveland State and Norris Cole. Could that game end up being for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid?

• Other Contenders: Milwaukee struggled during the non-conference portion of their schedule and they lost some head-scratchers in league play, but the Panthers earned the No. 1 seed through a tiebreaker; they went 3-1 against Butler and Cleveland State this season. Cleveland State also has a shot at winning the tournament. The Vikings will go as far as Cole takes them, but getting some support from Trevon Harmon and Jeremy Montgomery will be the difference. Also keep an eye on No. 4 seed Valparaiso, who led the Horizon for much of the season before collapsing down the stretch.

Sleeper: Wright State Raiders

The Raiders stumbled down the stretch, losing their last four league games to finish tied for fifth place with Detroit. But this is a quality basketball team. They beat Oakland earlier this year and smacked Hofstra by 26 points in BracketBusters. They have a solid one-two punch in Vaughn Duggins and N'Gai Evans as well.

• Deeper Sleeper: Keep an eye on Detroit. They struggled throughout conference play, but there is definitely some talent on that roster, specifically freshman point guard Ray McCallum and big man Eli Holman.

Players to Watch:

• Norris Cole, Cleveland State: He had 41 points, 20 boards, and nine assists in a game earlier this year. He's one of two players in the country that averages 20 ppg, 5 rpg, and 5 apg. Yes, he is good enough to carry this team for a week, and yes, he is absolutely worth the watch.
• Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard, Butler: Mack has continued to play his steady, intelligent game while Howard has finally developed into the star that everyone expected him to be last season.
• Ray McCallum, Detroit: Its not often that McDonald's all-americans end up in the Horizon, but that is McCallum, who opted to play for his dad instead of his pick of high-major program. McCallum is averaging 13.5 ppg and 4.9 apg on the season.
  

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Horizon League Conference Tournament Preview

Schedule:

Tuesday, March 3 / First Round / at campus sites
Game 1 - #10 Detroit at #3 Cleveland State
Game 2 - #7 UIC at #6 Youngstown State
Game 3 - #9 Valparaiso at #4 Wright State
Game 4 - #8 Loyola at #5 Milwaukee

Friday, March 6 / Second Round / at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Game 5 - Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner
Game 6 - Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner

Saturday, March 7 / Semifinals / at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Game 7 - Game 5 winner at #1 Butler
Game 8 - Game 6 winner vs. #2 Green Bay

Tuesday, March 10 / Championship / at higher remaining seed
Game 9 - Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner

Favorite: Butler is far and away the favorite to win the Horizon League tournament after winning the regular season title by two games. By winning the league, Butler earned the top seed in the tournament and thus a two-round bye, meaning they earn a berth in the semi-finals. If that wasn't enough, the reigning champs will have home court advantage throughout the tournament.

Gordon Hayward, Matt Howard, Ronald Nored, and Shelvin Mack
on the bench in Hinkle Fieldhouse.
(photo credit: Indy Star)

The Bulldogs swept the post-season awards, as Matt Howard (player of the year), Gordon Hayward (newcomer), and Brad Stevens (coach) were all honored. Howard is one of the best big man you haven't seen play. He isn't going to overpower you athletically, but at 6'8", 230 lb, he is a bull on the block that really understands positioning and sealing. He is a tough rebounder that will fundamental you to death. Hayward is a match-up as he is a 6'8" wing that can do it all.

Butler relies on their defense to win them games, which is good because they are a young team (two of their three leading scorers are freshman, the other is a sophomore). While nerves might mess with a jumper, they shouldn't bother a defense.

Contenders: Wisconsin Green-Bay earned the #2 seed, and thus also got a bye into the semi's. The Pheonix finished the season 22-9 and 13-5 in league play, their best finish since '04-'05. They are led by 6'8" shooter Ryan Tillema and already boast one win over Butler this year.

Cleveland State, the #3 seed, knocked off Syracuse this season. They sputtered a bit down the stretch, but they have proven that they can play with the Bulldogs (they lost on a buzzer beater back in December, and got beaten by two in Hinkle Fieldhouse three days ago). J'Nathan Bullock is a tough, senior, combo forward that leads the Vikings in scoring, while Cedric Jackson is one of the best playmakers in the conference.

Sleeper: I like Wright State. Why? Because they are going to defend the hell out of you. The Raiders finished at 12-6 in the league, giving up just 57.0 ppg. They don't win pretty, but how does the saying go ... defense wins championships? Of note - after losing their first six games, Wright State finished up the season winning 18 of 24.

BIAH Pick: Butler




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