St. John's fans would be wise to temper their expectations for next season

Steve Lavin has recreated an atmosphere of hope around the St. John's basketball program.

Last season, the first-year head coach led them to a tie for third in the Big East regular season standings, turning Dwight Hardy into a first-team all-conference player and Justin Brownlee and DJ Kennedy into a legitimate NBA prospects. A disappointing performance in the postseason -- they were beaten by 15 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament -- may have played out differently if it hadn't been for a torn acl that Kennedy suffered in the Big East Tournament.

What was unique about St. John's last season, however, is that their roster was almost entirely made up of seniors. Sophomore Malik Stith and freshman Dwayne Polee were the only players to crack the rotation that weren't in their final year of eligibility. With Polee opting to transfer closer to his California home, Lavin will have the services of just one returnee during the 2011-2012 season.

St. John's fans have reason to be hopeful, however. Lavin has pulled in one of the best recruiting hauls in the class of 2011.


Lavin is bringing in seven freshman -- Sir'Dominic Pointer (32nd in our consensus recruiting rankings), JaKarr Sampson (38th), Maurice Harkless (40th), D'Angelo Harrison (52nd), Norvel Pelle (57th), Amir Garrett (76th), and Phil Greene -- and two JuCo transfers -- Nurideen Lindsay and God's Gift Achiuwa. By any metric, its an impressive feat.

And while there is no doubt quite a bit of talent and potential that will now be flowing through the St. John's program over the next four years, this recruiting class is no guarantee that the Johnnies will be a contender in the Big East next season. In fact, if Steve Lavin can coach this group of youngsters up to simply being a factor in the conversation, he will have done an excellent job.

Two years ago, Luke Winn did a study looking at freshmen in the age-limit era, and what he came up with will likely be scary for St. John's fans to read. Essentially, he determined that the average top ten recruit would have an impact similar to that of Spencer Hawes at Washington. Hawes averaged 14.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and 1.7 bpg in his one season with the Huskies.

But Lavin isn't bringing in any top ten recruits. The six players that cracked top 100 lists sit between 32nd and 76th in our recruiting rankings. Winn determined that the average freshmen ranked in the 31-40 range would have an impact similar to that of Raymar Morgan, who averaged 11.7 ppg and 5.2 rpg at Michigan State. For players ranked 41-50, the average expectation should be JaJuan Johnson, who became an all-american as a senior but averaged just 5.4 ppg as a first-year player. Doug Wiggins of UConn was the comparison for players ranked 51-60 and Markieff Morris was the average for 61-70.

Even more alarming is the fact that Winn found players ranked outside the top 40 rarely cracked the starting lineup, which was confirmed by Drew Cannon's study for ESPN's Insider Recruiting blog last week. Of ESPN's top 100 freshmen in the class of 2010, just 32 wound up being starters. Only one (Jared Sullinger) was an all-american, although Harrison Barnes lived up to his preseason all-american hype for the last three months of the schedule. Only eight of the top 100 were named all-conference in BCS leagues.

In other words, it is quite rare for a player ranked outside of the top 10 or 20 to have a major impact on a high-major program as a freshman. The Kevin Durant's and Derrick Rose's of the world are far from the norm.

That doesn't mean that there isn't potential on the St. John's roster. There is.

But players don't live up to their potential overnight.

And just because St. John's will be bringing nine blue-chip recruits into their program next season doesn't mean they won't spend a year or two rebuilding.