Three point shooting isn't exactly Louisville's problem

Louisville lost to Drexel Tuesday night, 52-46, in one of the ugliest basketball games I can remember watching.

Drexel shot 38.6% from the floor and turned the ball over 22 times. Louisville shot 31.9% from the floor and turned the ball over 12 times. Both teams shot 12-25 from the free throw line, a result of the 46 combined fouls in the game.

The game had no pace and no rhythm to it, which suited Drexel perfectly.

The Dragons, who lost their leading returning scorer in the offseason because of an arrest for armed robbery, hang their hats on their defense, their ability to control the pace, and their rebounding. They don't create a lot of turnovers, but they also don't allow many open threes, instead forcing you to drive the ball to the rim. And when you do put the ball on the floor, Drexel is as good as anyone in the country at forcing difficult shots and rebounding those misses.

Drexel is in the top ten in the country for both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage as well as defensive three point percentage. Its why their defensive efficiency is as high as it is (38th) despite ranking in the bottom ten in country when it comes to forcing turnovers.

All of that was on display tonight in the KFC Yum! Center.


Drexel forced Louisville to play a half court game. They held the Cardinals to 31.9% shooting from the field, forced them to shoot 4-16 from beyond the arc, and dominated the glass 46-26, collecting 14 offensive rebounds in the process. Their domination on the glass gets that much more impressive when you look at rebounding percentages. The Dragons grabbed 45.1% of the available offensive rebounds and 82.1% of the available defensive rebounds.

For those unfamiliar with rebounds percentages, that is really, really, really good.

Drexel won tonight because they played to their strengths.

Louisville would do well to take notice.

The Cardinal's system is pretty easy to describe. They press, they look to force turnovers and quick shots, they get out in transtion, and they attack the rim offensively, looking to score, get fouled, or kick the ball out to shooters behind the three point line.

To be exact, about 42% of their field goal attempts end up coming from beyond the arc, which is more than all but 20 teams nationally. The problem? Louisville is far from a good three point shooting team, knocking down an anemic 31.6% from long range.

Mike Marra leads the team with 68 three point attempts. He's shooting an abysmal 26.5% from long range. Preston Knowles is second on the team with 55 attempts, and he's only hitting 34.5%. Peyton Siva's third with 24 attempts from deep, and he's made just six this season. That's 25% from long range.

In fact, of the seven players on the team that shoot from beyond the arc, only two -- Kyle Kuric (38.1%) and Chris Smith (52.6%) -- have shot well this season. But they've also combined for just 40 attempts.

This isn't a surprise. Everyone in the country knows what Louisville wants to do. Rick Pitino's system doesn't change. And ironically, if you go back through the stats on Kenpom's website, the only season in which Louisville shot this poorly from three was in 2007. Not much was expected from that Louisville team, but surprised a lot of people by finishing 12-4 in the Big East. Sound familiar?

That team, however, shot 33.2% from three and only took 38.7% of their field goal attempts from three point range. (For what its worth, the line was a foot closer then.) They also had three players on that team -- Derrick Caracter, Terrence Williams, and Earl Clark -- that would go on to be drafted by the NBA.

This version of Louisville has some guys with potential -- Terrence Jennings, Raheem Buckles, Peyton Siva -- but I have a hard time seeing all three develop into pros. (Keep in mind, Jared Swopshire still hasn't played this season.)

Which brings me to my point.

Louisville doesn't have the talent on their roster right now that Pitino is used to. This team is being forced to take threes not because they are open looks, but because its the best shot they can get right now. This team doesn't have the playmakers that can get into the lane, draw an extra defender, and find the open man spotting up from deep.

That right there is going to be Louisville's achilles heel all season.

They aren't missing shots because they have bad shooters, and they aren't necessarily having the wrong guys taking those shots.

The Cardinals are struggling from deep because they aren't getting as many good looks as they are used to getting.

And that is a much tougher problem to solve.