Saturday's Elite 8 preview

WEST REGION: #5 Butler vs. #2 Kansas State

I could sit here and ramble on and on for paragraphs about the subtle differences between these two teams.

I could tell you that on the perimeter, Butler actually matches up pretty well with Kansas State's high scoring back court of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. Ronald Nored and Shelvin Mack are both excellent defenders.

I could also tell you about how good Gordon Hayward truly is on the perimeter, how he is 6'9" with a jump shot, the ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, and the length and athleticism you don't expect to see out of a guy playing for Butler.

But when it comes down to it, this game is going to be determined by two things:

• How will Butler handle Kansas State's defensive pressure?: Kansas State is the kind of team that loves to get out and pressure their opponents, and while they force a lot of turnovers, it also results in a lot of fouling. Butler has to be aggressive in attacking this defense, especially Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward. Those two are good players and good scorers. The Wildcats size and athleticism up front is going to make it difficult to score in and around the basket, so instead of driving to score, per se, Butler needs to be looking to draw fouls. Kansas State, as I said, fouls a lot. Get to the line, get some of their starters in foul trouble, and Butler has a shot.


• Will Butler be able to rebound the ball?: I read Mike Freeman's article about the stereotypes given white basketball players, namely being unathletic. And while I agree to a point, I think even Freeman would grant me that Butler's front line is completely, totally, and 100% out-athleticized (no, that is not a real word) by Kansas State. The Wildcats are (much) bigger, they have longer arms, and they jump higher. Its not actually saying much -- Matt Howard is 6'8" and can't jump over a phone book, while Willie Veasley is a 6'3" power forward. They also attack the glass as aggresively as any front line in the country. Pullen and Clemente are going to get their 15-20 points, but if Butler allows the K-State front line to rebound the ball on the offensive end and get some easy buckets that way, the Bulldogs will be in trouble.
  

EAST REGION: #2 West Virginia vs. #1 Kentucky

I'm not going to lie -- I don't know if there is a game that I have been as excited to watch in this tournament as West Virginia and Kentucky. Its very possible that we are looking at the two best teams left in the tournament here.

I expect West Virginia to start in man-to-man. Its a Bobby Huggins team, and he has already said they will be going man. That said, keep an eye out for the 1-3-1 zone that he has been using of late. The Mountaineers have been very effective using that defense this season, and it is precisely the defense that Tennessee used when they played the Wildcats.

Regardless of the defense that West Virginia plays, Kentucky needs to get to the rim. WVU always has at least four kids on the floor that are forwards and have struggled at times to defend dribble penetration. If WVU is in man, John Wall and Eric Bledsoe need to take advantage of the matchups they get (Huggins has said Devin Ebanks will be on Wall). If it is a zone, the Wildcats cannot settle for threes. They have some capable shooters, but a capable shooter becomes a poor shooter when that shot doesn't come in rhythm. Get into the paint against the zone, and everything collapses, leaving open shooters and dump downs.

Kentucky has actually been one of the better defensive teams in the country this season. They have always had the athletes, it was just a matter of Coach Cal getting them to buy into playing defense. WVU, on the other hand, is not a great first-shot offensive team. What I mean is that they don't have a ton of guys that are creators -- either for their own shot or to find assists -- and with Truck Bryant injured, they really only have one ball handler on the team.

In fact, even with Bryant on the roster, sometimes WVU's best offense is actually getting the ball up on the rim and going to get the offensive rebound. This team is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and for Kentucky to win, they will need to keep WVU's athletes from getting to the glass.

For me, the deciding factor in this game is going to be DeMarcus Cousins. West Virginia has a lot of big guys, but most of them are combo-forwards as opposed to true post players. That said, they sure do have a lot of them. I expect guys like Cam Thoroughman, Denis Kilicli, and Danny Jennings to be very physical with Cousins, send him to the foul line where he struggles, and try to get into his head. Cousins is the most unstoppable force in the country when he wants to be. Take his head out of the game, however, and you can nullify his contributions.