Tuesday, October 20, 2009

2009-2010 Team Preview: UCLA Bruins

2008-2009 Record: 26-9, 13-5 Pac-10 (2nd)

Key Losses: Darren Collison (14.4 ppg, 4.7 apg), Josh Shipp (14.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg), Alfred Aboya (9.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Jrue Holiday (8.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.7 apg)

Key Returners: Nikola Dragovic (9.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Malcolm Lee (3.2 ppg), Jerime Anderson (2.3 ppg), Drew Gordon (3.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg)

Newcomers: Tyler Honeycutt, Reeves Nelson, Mike Moser, Anthony Stover, Brendan Lane

Nikola Dragovic will double as the Bruins leading scorer and best perimeter shooter.
(photo credit: life.com)

We are less than a week into practice, and the young UCLA Bruins are already beat up. Malcolm Lee has a concussion, James Keefe injured his shoulder, Drew Gordon sprained a knee ligament, Brendan Lane sprained his ankle, Mike Moser and Tyler Honeycutt have bad backs, and Jerime Anderson re-injured an ailing groin. Even Ben Howland had an off-season appendectomy. Luckily for Howland, none of these injuries are season-ending, so by the end of the year the Bruins should be at full strength.

UCLA lost a ton of talent, experience, and leadership from last season's team, but that doesn't mean that the Bruins cupboard will be bare. Howland's last two recruiting classes have been loaded, with nine of the ten guys coming into the program being rated as four or five star recruits by Rivals.

The kid getting the most off-season attention is Malcolm Lee. Lee played limited minutes last season as he was buried beneath Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Jrue Holiday. But many pundits, including myself, are predicting a break out season from the sophomore. Lee is a Russell Westbrook clone. Still very raw on the offensive end of the court, Lee will be a play maker on the defensive end. He is long (6'5" two-guard) and an explosive athlete that is a lock down defender and a terror in the passing lanes. Lee excels in the open court, and while he may not be the perfect fit for the grind-it-out style that Howland likes to play, Lee is a dynamic enough talent that he should be able to thrive in any system. Don't be surprised when he becomes a first-team all Pac-10 performer.

Joining Lee is the back court will be Jerime Anderson. Anderson was limited to garbage minutes as a freshman, but it was easy to see some potential as a point guard. Anderson understands how to run a team. He isn't as great scorer or a great athlete, but he is a crafty point guard that uses an array of fakes to get by his man. He understands things like offensive spacing and help side defense, which will go a long way to making him fit in Ben Howland's system. While he didn't seem like the best creator during his freshman season, he earned that reputation in high school, so it will be interesting to see what he can do when he plays major minutes. The biggest issue with Anderson last season was his body - although he is 6'3", Anderson dealt with a lack of strength that caused hm to be pushed around, especially on the defensive end. But a year with the UCLA strength training staff should help solve that problem.

Depth is going to be the biggest issue for the Bruin's back court. After Lee and Anderson, there really isn't another guy that can handle the ball. Michael Roll will see a good deal of time, but he is far from a point or even a combo guard. There isn't much Roll does on the offensive end besides shoot. While he is quite good at that (51.5% from deep), UCLA is going to need him to expand his game this season.

Two freshman will also contribute minutes on the perimeter. Tyler Honeycutt and Mike Moser are two fairly similar players. Moser is probably the better defender at this point. 6'8" and athletic enough to defend the one through the four, Moser is one of the more underrated recruits in the country. Part of the reason is that his offensive game has yet to really catch up to his effectiveness of the defensive end of the floor, but that defensive ability should make get him minutes in Howland's rotation. Honeycutt, who is coming off of a slight fracture to his lower back suffered over the summer, was considered by some to be the most talented and versatile recruit on the west coast. Standing 6'9", Honeycutt can play on the perimeter and in the post, although his frame may be too slight at this point to contribute major minutes inside. He attacks the glass, he blocks shots, he can play the perimeter and create shots for teammates, and he has three point range. The biggest knock on him is his aggressiveness - will he be tough enough to handle major college basketball? If he wants to play for Ben Howland, he will have to be.

The star in the making in Howland's front court is Drew Gordon. Gordon saw limited minutes during the '08-'09 season, but, as the case with Lee and Anderson, did show the potential to become an above-average player in the Pac-10. Gordon is a big, strong, and athletic kid, checking in at 6'9" and 240 lbs. While he did not show much of an offensive game in the few touches he got last season (although, he has a nice little jump hook with his right hand), what Gordon did show was an excellent motor and aggressiveness going to the glass - he averaged 3.4 rpg in just over 10 mpg. He had 17 foot range coming out of high school, and if he can develop a bit more of a presence on the offensive end, Gordon could turn into a guy capable of posting near a double-double on a nightly basis.

Senior Nikola Dragovic will likely be the other starter in the front court. Dragovic is a big body, standing 6'9", but his biggest strength is his ability to shoot and score from the perimeter. He was an excellent pick-and-pop guy last year with Collison, and should be again this season with Anderson. His ability to shoot makes it all the more important for Gordon to become a low-post scoring threat. With Dragovic keeping the floor spread, Gordon will have plenty of room to operate. James Keefe, another senior, will also be counted on to provide minutes up front. He is out for at least another month with a shoulder injury, however.

While Keefe is injured, freshmen Brendan Lane and Reeves Nelson will have a chance to prove their mettle as rotational players. Nelson might be the best fit. While he is not a great shooter or scorer, Nelson is an excellent athlete (although some reports have said that added muscle and a couple ankle injuries have tempered his explosiveness) that will bring energy to the table for the Bruins. Nelson is also a crafty player, with the ability to pass and handle the ball. Lane is more of a back-to-the-basket player. Where Gordon's game is based on strength and athleticism, Lane is more of a finesse guy. He is long with a nice touch and some decent post moves, but until he puts on weight and strength to his 6'9" frame, he is going to struggle to stay in the rotation.

The biggest question mark is J'Mison Morgan. He was a top 25 recruit coming out of high school, but attitude problems and a lock of motivation and work ethic kept him out of the UCLA line-up. If he can overcome that (and an off-season knee surgery), Morgan is big, talented center.

Outlook: The Bruins are young, inexperienced, and injured. That is not a good combination. But they are a talented group. Defensively, they should still be just as tough as they have been since Howland arrived. The issue is going to be offensively. Baskets were hard to come by at times during Collison and Shipp's reign in Westwood, and now those two are gone. Can anyone on UCLA step up and be a reliable scorer? There is a lot of promise, but there are also a lot of question marks as none of the guys projected to be "stars" saw many minutes last year. If those kids prove they are worthy of the hype, UCLA may finish in the top three in the Pac-10. If no one does, well, UCLA may still be in the top three as the Pac-10 is way down this season. While I think the Bruins are still going to reach the tournament, they are probably still a year away from being a Final Four contender.

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