Tuesday, March 4, 2008

What Bubble Teams Can Do The Most

As this is the last week before the conference tournaments, what bubble teams can do the most for their NCAA tournament at-large chances by winning this week.

Baylor - (19-8, 8-6) RPI 33, SOS 39
This week: Texas A&M, @ Texas Tech

Kansas State - (17-10, 8-6) RPI 42, SOS 11
This week: Colorado, @ Iowa St.

Oklahoma - (19-10, 7-7) RPI 27, SOS 8
This week: @ OK St., Mizzou

Texas A&M - (20-8, 7-7) RPI 46, SOS 89
This week: @ Baylor, Kansas
This is the log jam that is the middle of the Big XII. Depending on the way things shake out in this last week, only two of these teams could make it, or all four could make it. A&M has the best opprotunity to move up, with games against Baylor and Kansas. However, in Oklahoma, K-State, and Baylor win out, all three should earn a bid.

West Virginia - (21-9, 10-7) RPI 41, SOS 60
This week: Won vs. Pitt, @ St. John's
The win against Pitt was huge for the Mountaineers, as it gives them another solid win. If the can win in the Garden agaisnt St. John's, they will have 11 Big East wins. Pitt and Marquette, both home games, are really their only two good wins in conference.

Arizona - (16-12, 7-9) RPI 24, SOS 1
This week: @ Oregon, @ Oregon St.

Arizona St. - (18-10, 8-8) RPI 66, SOS 62
This week: @ Oregon, @ Oregon St.

Oregon - (16-12, 7-9) RPI 59, SOS 28
This week: Arizona, Arizona St.
All three of these teams are very much on the bubble, and all three really need a sweep to avoid sweating out Selection Sunday. But, if things fall a certain way aka if winless Pac-10 cellar dwellar Oregon St. can swing an upset, all three of these teams may be going to the NIT.

Virginia Tech - (17-11, 8-6) RPI 56, SOS 52
This week: Wake Forest, @ Clemson
With average computer numbers and a weak non-conference schedule, the Hokies may already be finished. But if they win out, that gives them 10 ACC wins, and five in a row to end the season - including two (@Maryland, @Clemson) over fellow bubble dwellers.

Arkansas - (19-9, 8-6) RPI 38, SOS 40
This week: @ Ole Miss, Auburn
Two very winnable games for the razorbacks. If they get them both, they're almost guaranteed a bid.

UMass - (19-9, 8-6) RPI 39, SOS 47
This week: LaSalle, @ GW
Despite a slow start in A-10 play, UMass has won four in a row. In they can get these last two and go to 10-6 in the A-10, that should be enough to get them in, although a split may be enough.

St. Jospeh's - (17-10, 8-6)
This week: Xavier, @ Dayton
The Hawks are a little worse off that UMass, however if they can get a win against Xavier (who hasn't lost since mid-January), that should be enough. Winning at Dayton would also be huge.

UAB - (21-8, 11-3) RPI 49, SOS 112
This week: Tulsa, @ Memphis
The current Bracketology has UAB as one of the last four teams in the dance, but winning out, which would include getting a W in Memphis, would secure a spot.


Kentucky - (16-11, 10-4) RPI 52, SOS 9
This week: @ South Carolina, Florida
What was already a very intruiging bubble team just got a painful twist of fate - Patrick Patterson is out for the year. But if they can manage to win out, they will be sitting at 12-4, no worse than third in the SEC. I'm glad I don't have to decide that one.

Ohio State - (17-12, 8-8) RPI 55, SOS 30
This week: Purdue, Michigan State
Ohio State is pretty far out there on the bubble, currently sitting tied for fifth in what looks like a four-bid Big Ten. But they do get two of those four teams - at home - this week. They must sweep if they want any shot of sneaking in on Selection Sunday.

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