Bettering College Basketball

A buddy of mine, Andy of Bi-Monthly Blog fame, recently asked why I had not yet commented on the moving of the college three-point line from 19'9" to 20'9". I am going to wait until closer to the start of the season to discuss the move (partly because I am torn over its effects, partly because I wasn't thinking about anything other than the draft until recently), but it got me thinking about changes that could (and should) be made to better college basketball. I wrote about one of those changes here and here, regarding Brandon Jennings and the one-year rule, but there are a couple of other changes I would make as well.

Before I get to that, I just want to say one more thing about the one-year rule. The reason I am so against it is not because I think high schoolers should be playing in the NBA - in fact, I believe the exact opposite. My problem with the rule is that the reason that it has been put into effect is because it allows the NBA to draft players that have already built up name recognition - if Derrick Rose was coming off of a state title instead of a trip to the NCAA finals, does he still go #1? Is there the same discussion revolving Oden-vs.-Durant or Rose-vs.-Beasley as the first pick? The NCAA benefits from the rule as well because they get the best players in the country suiting up for a year. The only people who don't benefit are the players themselves. They spend a year making a mockery of the term student-athlete while everyone makes money off of their talents except themselves.

If the NBA was serious about the claims that they want more of a chance to scout players they are drafting, and that they want the players to be more prepared for the NBA, make them go to school for two years (which, depending on how the Brandon Jennings situation pans out, could very well end up happening). Two years in college will give the players more of a chance to grow into their bodies (how many 19 year olds are physically ready to handle the NBA), learn the game, and develop their skills while keeping the moniker student-athlete somewhat accurate.

But that doesn't account for the issue that the players generate a ton money and do not get much compensation (what is a scholarship really worth to Michael Beasley when he only has to go to class for one semester) when, if they were playing professionally, they would be able to. Bottom line, I think that the players should be getting paid. Nothing huge - maybe like $600 a month depending on the school (bigger schools equal more revenue equal more compensation). Think about it - for any teenager that doesn't have to worry about things like rent or the cable bill, $150 a week will seem like a lot of money. Being able to get a couple of new shirts or a new pair of Jordans every week could keep a lot of players happy (especially when a lot of them get at least that already). I'll take it one step further - have the money come from the boosters that provide players with the (currently) illegal benefits. If you make the players file a tax return, then you can kill two birds with one stone - if there are legal consequences to the player receiving OJ-Mayo-esque benefits, then it will greatly reduce the likelihood of players taking that chance (right now, only USC is facing any backlash - losing scholarships, forfeiting games, fines - while Mayo gets away with just a little damage to his reputation).

Another change, as I mentioned Wednesday, is that I would make basketball (and football, baseball, or any other sport where the possibility of a career in that sport exists) a major, especially for schools with big time sports programs. Just to clarify, I'm not saying that these schools (or the NCAA) should allow these athletes to participate in the sport and represent the school without going to any class at all. Instead, educate them in something that will help these kids down the road. As Rick Reilly so tactfully noted in his column last week, there is a huge problem with athletes ending up broke way to quickly after they retire. This happens for many reasons - horrific spending decisions, poor money management, bad investments, and the fact that after taxes, agent/publicist/etc. fees, and the obligatory mansion (or two) and Bentley (or three), there really isn't that much left.

Brian Cuban (Mark Cuban's brother) had an enlightening interview with agent Jordan Woy about this issue, where Woy says

if athletes educate themselves, learn money management skills and make smart, safe investments along the way, they are usually in very good shape. After representing athletes for over 20 years, we call this our “life plan”. We take out clients to learn business networking. We have people from industries such as real estate, oil and gas, financial planning, credit repair, asset protection/estate planning, etc. come to educate the players and their wives so they can learn about these business and also determine if they are interested in any of these industries for life after sports.

Why not put the players under this "basketball" major in classes like this? For one thing, you might actually get some of them to attend and pay attention in class. Maybe you could even turn some of these one-and-done guys into honest-to-goodness student-athletes. I mean, I guarantee that Michael Beasley would have gotten more out of a class on how to value real estate or how to invest money effectively than he did from english 101 or geometry. You could even have classes on becoming a basketball coach, an announcer, or even a writer.

Needless to say, it is not as simple as creating a basketball major. For one, there are only a few schools, and only a few players at those schools, where doing something like this would even be feasible or logical (maybe just a generic professional athlete major where you can get a concentration in a particular sport would be more effective). There is also so much potential for corruption and grade fixing, a la Jim Harrick, but doesn't that already happen way too often? If a school is going to cheat, the school is going to cheat regardless of what classes the player is in.

Another risk is that some of the players under this major don't have the talent to be a pro and thus the classes that they would take would not be as beneficial to them - learning how to manage your money won't help if you can't make any. But isn't this a risk that is inherent in any major for every college student? How many college students know what they want to do in life when they choose their major? I have an econ degree, which probably won't help me too much as a sportswriter.

The bottom line is that the real student-athletes are still going to go to class and get a degree in a field they want to pursue. But by adding this option, you can help some kids learn how to capitalize on their talent and the money that they make off of it.

The last change that I would make is to eliminate the play-in game in the NCAA tournament. If one less middling high-major makes the tourney, is it really that big of a deal? Since 1985, when the tournament was expanded to 64, only 19 times has an 8 seed or lower reached the Elite 8, and only five times has one made the Final Four - 11 seed George Mason in 2006, 8 seeds North Carolina and Wisconsin in 2000, 11 seed LSU in 1986, and 8 seed (and eventual champion) Villanova in 1985.

You want more stats? Of the previously mentioned 19, only four were at-large bids that were lower than 11, meaning that they were one of the last schools to get into the tournament as an at-large - George Mason and LSU from above, 12 seed Missouri in 2002 and 11 seed Loyola Marymount in 1990 (in 2002, 11 seed Temple won the A-10 tourney). So only four times in the last 23 years has a team that could be effected by the reduction of an at-large made it as far as the Elite 8. The last few teams to get in are always either a mediocre power conference team or a very good mid-major that lost during their conference tourney. To be honest, I wouldn't mind losing one of them each year.

The biggest reason that I believe the NCAA tournament should go back to 64 teams (or at the very least remain at 65) is one simple reason: NCAA tournament pools. The way it is currently set up, the whole bracket can fit onto one, standard 8 1/2" X 11" piece of paper. All anyone in the world has to do is print out the bracket, fill in some team names, and throw down 10 bucks in your office pool and boom, you're thrown head first into the excitement of March Madness. That's the beauty of it. No matter who you are or what you do, no matter how much you care or know about college basketball, you are only one bracket away from having everything on the line.

Part of the reason it works so well is that it is so easy to print out that one piece of paper. If the tournament expands to 72, 96, 128, or whatever number Jim Boeheim asks for next, will your boss have the time to fill out that many games? Will your girlfriend have the energy to pick out her favorite mascots on multiple pages? Will the tourney still be the national spectacle it is if every average Joe and Jane doesn't fill out a bracket?

So there you have it - my proposed changes for the 2008-2009 basketball season. Leave a comment and tell me what you think. Continue reading...

Title Game Thoughts

I don't know if there is any way that this title game loss could hurt more for Memphis. They got nothing out of Joey Dorsey, they got nothing out of Derrick Rose in the first half, but held Kansas to 18 points through the first 17:48 of the second half as they built a 60-51 lead. Down the stretch, Memphis had the people they wanted at the line. But Chris Douglas -Roberts missed the front end of a 1-and-1 up four with 1:15 left which led to a Darrel Arthur turn-around. CDR then missed both shots with 16 seconds left and the Tigers up two, but Robert Dozier got the rebound and kicked it to Derrick Rose who was fouled. But he proceeded to make just 1-2, giving Kansas a chance.

Mario Chalmers made the most of that opportunity. He took a hand-off from Collins, took one dribble left, and hit a high-arching three over Rose and Dozier that settled softly in the net, sending the game into overtime. In OT, Kansas jumped out a quick six point lead and never looked back - the closest Memphis would get was 3.

Memphis looked exhausted by the end of the game. Rose played 45 minutes, while CDR and Antonio Anderson both played 42 minutes. Memphis got a total of 7 minutes played from people not in their top 6. It was most evident in the overtime, as Kansas looked much fresher and more energetic as they jumped out to that lead, although some of that can probably be attributed to Memphis being demoralized after missing free throws and blowing their lead.

One thing I didn't mind was Calipari's decision not to foul Kansas to prevent the three at the end of regulation. The Memphis achilles heel all season has been their free throw shooting, and I know that they had been hitting them all tournament, but if you foul Kansas you are putting your guys back on the line. If Kansas hit two, and then Memphis missed one or both of them, do you really want to give Kansas a chance to win the game? Even if there only would have been four or five seconds on the clock after the Memphis foul shots, limiting what Kansas would be able to set up on offense, I still think Calipari made the right decision. Especially when you consider that the two guys he would want to take the free throws (CDR and Rose) are the ones that had been missing them.

Think about it like this - Chalmers hit a very difficult shot with a hand right in his face. How many times does he make that? 1 out of 4? Given what had just occurred in the last two minutes, I think there was a better that Kansas hit both free throws, and Memphis missed at least one of theirs than Chalmers hitting that shot. How much worse would this loss be if Chalmers had hit a shot like that, except Kansas was only down two and it won the game for them?

What gets lost in all the hoopla about the free throws in the great job that Kansas did defending CDR and Rose. CDR scored 22, but never really got into a rhythm and looked uncomfortable most of the night as Brandon Rush face guarded him and Kansas went box-and-1. Sherron Collins, Russell Robinson, and Mario Chalmers were in Rose's jock all night, holding him to just 3 points in the first 28 minutes and forcing him into 5 turnovers for the game. He did score 14 of 16 Memphis points during an eight minute stretch in the second half, which pushed the Tigers lead to 56-49, but only managed the one free throw in the last four minutes of the game.

The most important part of the Jayhawk defense was that they kept CDR and Rose from getting big baskets down the stretch while they were making their comeback. All in all, those two are talented enough that they are going to get their points. But the Jayhawks were able to keep them from taking over the game, which kept them close enough to be able to make that comeback.

The bottom line is that this was a phenomenal game and made up for what had been a lackluster last two weekends. I am curious whether this game will be remembered for the great comeback Kansas made, capped off by the Mario Chalmers shot, or the Memphis collapse down the stretch, missing all those free throws.

Now the question becomes will Bill Self return to Kansas or take the job at Oklahoma State, his alma mater. He made $1.4 million at Kansas this year, and could probably expect to get at least a $1 million raise on his new contract, but with Ok. State (read booster T. Boone Pickens' money) Self would become the richest coach in college basketball and be able to return home to coach. If you ask me, he would be crazy to leave one of the top 5 coaching jobs in the country. But, at more than double the salary, could you really blame the guy? Continue reading...

Title Game Preview

Game Preview:
Kansas and Memphis are very similar teams. They both have excellent guard play and excellent post play, are deep at every position (although the injury to Rodrick Stewart and suspension of Andre Allen has taken away from that a bit), and are playing as well as they have all season heading into tonight's game.

For me, the best part about this game is that I would wouldn't mind seeing either team win. Yes, there are some pretty unsavory characters on the Memphis team (Robert Dozier and Andre Allen come to mind immediately), but all of these guys play hard and although they aren't the smartest group (for example, Chris Douglas-Roberts' major is Sport and Leisure Management) they seem like pretty decent people. Rose's three brothers did everything they could to keep him isolated growing up in a tough neighborhood of Chicago, and CDR has a tattoo of his Mom on his neck, and has the first three verses of Psalm 37 from the Bible tattooed on his arm which he rubs three time before shooting every free throw.

For Kansas, they all are pretty likeable guys. Sasha Kaun's father was murdered by the Russian government when he was 12, and he had to grow up very quickly (after he lost his starting spot, his mom came all the way from Russia, where he has visited twice since starting his sophomore year in High School in Florida, to live with him. Check out this article from the NY Times about him). Sherron Collins has overcome growing up on the streets of Chicago with a father who was in and out of jail and the death of his two week old son the summer before his freshman year to become a spark for Kansas.

How can you not root for these guys to succeed?

Keys to the game:
-Can Kansas slow down Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts? They have been shredding teams apart in the tournament, but Kansas has four guards to throw at the two of them.
-How will the Kansas guards handle to pressure from Memphis? They had 13 turnovers combined (7 from Sherron Collins) in the games against UNC.
-How will Dorsey and company handle Kansas's interior players? Memphis' relies on their advantage in size and athleticism inside, and Kansas can match-up with them.
-Free Throws? It will always be a question with Memphis, even if they have been hitting them in the tournament.
-Which Kansas team show up? The one that went up by 28 in the first half of the UNC game, or the one that would have been up by just two points had Danny Green's three rattled in.
-Which Brandon Rush shows up? Kansas is a much better team when he plays like the go-to player he has the potential to be.

Why Kansas can win:
Kansas's guards are all good defenders. UCLA's were as well, but the difference is that guys like Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, and (especially) Sherron Collins and Brandon Rush are bigger and stronger than the UCLA guards (Collins still holds football records in Chicago, where he played as a free safety and receiver). Rose and CDR score a lot of their points because they are bigger, stronger, and can elevate over their defenders. The guards from Kansas are as big as any that Memphis has faced this year, and have done valiant jobs on Scottie Reynolds, Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington in their last three games.

Why Memphis can win:
Simply put - they are playing the best basketball in the country. They rolled through the C-USA conference tourney, and if they hit their free throws against Mississippi State, they would have won every game in the NCAA's by double digits. Derrick Rose has finally lived up to the substantial hype, CDR is playing phenomenal, and Joey Dorsey is back being a beast. Everyone has said all year, if Memphis can play up to their potential, they can win a title. Well, now they are.

My Pick:
Memphis. This one is so hard to pick, because both teams are playing so well and are so talented, but I think Derrick Rose and CDR will be too much. Continue reading...

And Then There Were Two....

After watching Memphis slowly dismantle UCLA and Kansas put a whipping on UNC, I'm as excited for tomorrow night's championship as I could possibly be for a title game without UConn playing in it. It's going to be a fantastic game. Here are my thoughts on last night's games:

Memphis 78, UCLA 63
-Derrick Rose is going to be a superstar in the NBA. After watching him last night (and for the whole tournament, actually), I'm sure of it. He's got all the physical attributes you want - big, strong in the air, lightening quicks, incredible hops - and besides having a jumper that is a bit inconsistent, he can do anything on a basketball court. Two moves from last night stick in my mind. In the first half, on a fast break, he hit Russell Westbrook (Pac-10 defensive player of the year) with an in-and-out move that completely fooled him and then finished with a tough lefty lay-in. In the second half, he drove to middle with his left hand from the right wing, cam to a jump stop on the opposite block, went up and finished with his right hand on the other side of the rim in traffic.

That's not even the best part about this kid. He's unselfish. In an interview after the game last night, when asked about comments Penny Hardaway made about his talents, Rose said "C'mon man, it's not about me". He could have easily gone for 40 last night, but he deferred to the open man (more often than not Chris Douglas-Roberts who finished with 28. Every time he got into the lane against UCLA's smaller guards, he was able to elevate and finish over or through them. He finished with 25 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. This kid's going to be a star. I've heard many comparisons for Rose - Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, etc. - but I see him being more of a Deron Williams/Dwayne Wade type player.

-At one point in the first half, with Dorsey playing poorly, Coach John Calipari was caught on camera meeting Dorsey at half court and ripping into him. From that point forward, Dorsey was an animal - he finished with 15 boards and 2 blocks. But his most important contribution was the job he did defensively on Kevin Love. The freshman scored just 12 points on 4-11 shooting with no second half field goals.

-Was that really Darren Collison out there? He played horribly - he shot 1-9 from the field, had 5 turnovers, could not guard anyone, and fouled out with 3 minutes left. He wasn't able to get any penetration, instead dribbling aimlessly around the perimeter. Not the way you want NBA scouts to see you end your season.

-Russell Westbrook looked great. His ball skills (jump shot and handle) need some improvement, but he's a heck of an athlete, tough, and a great defender that can get in the passing lanes.


Kansas 84, UNC 66
-This was one of the stranger games I've witnessed in my life. First of all, I have never seen anything like the show Kansas put on in the first 15 minutes of their game against UNC last night. It seemed like Kansas had seven guys on the floor - every time UNC had possession the ball was knocked loose, and most of the time Kansas wound up with the loose ball. UNC couldn't dribble, couldn't pass, couldn't shoot, couldn't keep Kansas from getting a lay-up, dunk or wide open three. It was the single most dominating performance I have ever seen in my life - and it came against not only a #1 seed, but the #1 team in the country. Amazing.

-For as well as KU played in the first 15 minutes, UNC played that well for the next 20. After the Jayhawks built their 40-12 lead, UNC outscored them 41-18 and were a Danny Green jump shot going half way down and coming out away from cutting the lead to two. From that point on, Kansas pulled away, in large part due to the tired legs of the Heels.

-Wayne Ellington was one of the lone bright spots for the Heels. He ended the game with 18 points on just 8-21 shooting, but he got hot at the right team. Ellington and Danny Green shot UNC back into the game.

-I did not understand Roy Williams substitution patterns. The first half was one thing - when your team is struggling that badly you need to do something to get your team jump started. But in the second half, there were times when Williams had Hansbrough, Ellington, and Lawson on the bench at the same time. When Green's three rimmed out, with only about six minutes left, Will Graves got the offensive rebound and lost it out of bounds. Graves played 6 minutes against Arkansas, 1 minute against Washington State, and earned a DNP-CD (did not play-coach's decision) against Louisville when all three games were won by double digits. And he is on the floor with under six minutes left in the Final Four when you're trying to make a comeback? I understand that you guys are going to be getting tired, but with Green, Ellington, Lawson, Quentin Thomas, and Marcus Guinyard you don't have enough bodies in the back court?

-The Kansas front court may be better than advertised. Every one knows about the three-headed monster of Darnell Jackson, Darrell Arthur, and Sasha Kaun, but when those three faced foul trouble early in the first half - before Kansas had really made their big run - freshman Cole Aldrich came in and outplayed them all. There was about an 8 minute span when he was the best player on the floor. He finished 8 points, 7 boards (4 offensive), and 4 blocks (6, 6, and 3 in the 1st half, all double his season averages), but there was one sequence that really stood out in my mind as proof that this kid will be the real deal. In the first half, he received a beautiful feed and tried to go up an dunk with one hand and missed it. UNC went the other way, but Aldrich hustled down the court and blocked (with the help of Arthur) a Hansbrough hook shot. Kansas had a fast break the other way and missed a lay-up, but guess who was there for a follow up dunk. Aldrich. He played a great game, and was a huge reason for the Kansas lead in the first half.

-Brandon Rush finally played like he should play every night. He finished with 25 points on 11-17 from the field and added 7 boards. He scored in such a variety of ways. He knocked down threes. He hit pull-ups and floaters. He got all the way to the rim, but also made his patented drive-right, fade-away one-handed-leaner off-the-glass about three times. It's too bad he doesn't play that way more often. Continue reading...

Final Four Preview and Predictions

I'm sure everyone and their mother knows this by now, but Saturday's 6:07 tip will mark the first time since the NCAA started seeding the Tournament that all four #1 seeds made it through their regions to the Final Four. Throughout the season, these four teams were widely considered the four best teams in the country, with the four accounting for all but one week as the #1 team in the country and spending the entire season ranked no lower than 8th. This weekend in San Antonio should be one of the best Final Fours in recent memory.


UCLA vs. Memphis

Game Preview:
This is a match-up of two very tough defensive teams, although the style of defense that each team plays is very different. Where Memphis uses their superior athleticism to apply terrific ball pressure, forcing turnovers and baiting opponents to drive where they have shot-blocking machine Joey Dorsey lying in wait, UCLA plays disciplined and fundamental half-court defense that takes a team out of offensive rhythm.

Both of these teams have made long runs in the tourney in recent years (Memphis finally reached the Final Four in their third straight Elite 8 run, while UCLA has been in the Final Four the last two years) and came away empty. With a number of players from both teams most likely gone to the NBA draft after the season, this is probably the last chance for these two teams to get a championship with this group of guys.

Why UCLA can win:
While UCLA does not match-up athletically with Memphis, they are sound enough defensively that they can handle Memphis. UCLA is going pack in their defense and let Memphis shoot over the top, much the way that Tennessee did. If the Tigers don't shoot well, they won't win.

Why Memphis can win:
The Tigers back court is much bigger than the Bruins. While Darren Collison, Russell Westbrook, and Josh Shipp can all match-up athletically with Memphis, the likes of Derrick Rose, Antonio Anderson, and Chris Douglas-Roberts are all big enough that they can get their shot off over the Bruins guards whenever they want. Collison, whose penetration has been vital to the UCLA success of late, will also not be able to out-quick Rose and get into the lane at will.

Best Match-up:
Kevin Love and Joey Dorsey. Even in the league, there aren't many guys that are as strong and as athletic as Dorsey, and with everything that Love can do, athleticism is not one of his strong suits. But he is excellent at establishing position, a great positional rebounder, and has a vast array of post moves. Dorsey is so important to Memphis defensively with his shot-blocking ability. If he can stay on the floor (read not pick up fouls against Love), then Memphis will be that much better.

Keys to the game:
- Who wins the rebounding battle? As both team tend to struggle offensively, second chance points will be very important.
- Can UCLA prevent penetration by Memphis? When the Memphis guards get into the lane, they are tremendous finishers but also are very good at finding Dorsey, Robert Dozier, and Shawn Taggert for lobs at the rim.
- Will the Bruins half-court offense be effective? This UCLA team has never been known for their offensive prowess, and as they do not look to break all that much, they need to be able to run their sets.
- Fouls. Can Dorsey stay out of foul trouble? Memphis was the second worst foul shooting team in the country during the regular season, but has been knocking them down in the tourney. Which trend continues?
- Can Memphis hit their three's? UCLA will most likely pack in their defense, whether its man or zone, and Memphis needs to knock down perimeter jumpers to open up driving lanes.

My Pick:
Memphis. After the Tigers beat Texas to win the South Region, they didn't celebrate by cutting down the nets. Dorsey got up on the ladder and cut down the whole net. CDR didn't even stay on the court to see it happen. It's clear that this team is on a mission to win a title. I wouldn't bet against them.


UNC vs. Kansas

Game Preview:
All season, I've thought that UNC and Kansas were the best two teams in the country. If Memphis and UCLA is a match-up of two of the best defenses in the country, UNC and Kansas is a battle of high powered offenses. UNC gets their points off of their incredible fast break and the rugged work inside by Tyler Hansbrough an Deon Thompson. Kansas is about as balanced as a team can be, with their top 7 (maybe the best to 7 in the country) all averaging between 7-13 ppg and 18-29 mpg.

The most interesting part of this game, however, isn't the players. It is the coaches. After leading the Jayhawks to the NCAA final in 2003, Williams left Kansas to coach at UNC, his alma mater, to replace Matt Doherty and promptly led UNC to the 2005 national title. This is the first time Williams has faced Kansas since he left. Bill Self, on the other hand, has finally reached the Final Four with the Jayhawks. Rumors had been swirling that he would have been ousted as the Kansas head coach had they lost to Davidson in the Elite 8, and taken over at Oklahoma State, his alma mater.

Why UNC can win:
Simply put, this is the best offensive team in the country. They rolled through the East region, winning all four games by double digits and with the exception of a second half surge by Louisville in the regional final, have been in control throughout every game. The key to this team has been the emergence of Wayne Ellington as a star and Quenton Thomas as a more-than-reliable backup to Lawson.

Why Kansas can win:
There is no drop off between their starters and the first guys off their bench - Sherron Collins and Sasha Kaun. As we saw with Stephen Curry, Kansas has the ability to wear out perimeter shooters by throwing four quality defenders at them and has enough good post players to give Hansbrough fits.

Best Matchup:
The frontlines. There are only a handful of players in the country that are as effective in all aspects of the game as Hansbrough. He can score with his back to the basket and off the offensive glass, and has proven he has range to the three-point line and can face a defender up. Deon Thompson would be a star almost any other team in the country. But Kansas has three guys that are just as good in Kaun, Darrell Arthur, and Darnell Jackson. Whoever wins the battle in the paint will win the game.

Keys to the game
- Can Kansas slow down UNC? Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson combine to average 4.5 spg, and they will need to be able to slow down Ty Lawson. Noone has done it in the tourney yet.
- Will Kansas hit their 3's? Kansas has a lot of great shooters, and if they are hitting they are a tough team to beat.
- Which Brandon Rush shows up? The knock on Kansas all year has been they don't have a go-to guy in crunch time. Rush is talented enough and has been that guy at times, but he has a tendency to fade down the stretch.
- Marcus Guinyard and Danny Green. These guys do a lot of the dirty work for the Heels - o-boards, defense, hustle plays. Other than Rush (and even he is a bit soft), Kansas doesn't really have anyone with their size on the perimeter.

My Pick:
UNC. Kansas has been one of those teams that could never get to the Final Four, and I can see them having a let down after finally reaching it. Continue reading...

Awards for the Tourney's First Weekend

BEST INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE:
Stephen Curry, Davidson

For the weekend, Curry averaged 35 ppg, 3 rpg, 3.5 apg, and 4 spg while committing just 2 turnovers. He shot just over 50% from the field, including a scalding 52% (13-25) from 3. More impressive was the fact that Curry twice led his team back from double digit second half deficits. In the opening round, Curry scored 30 in the second half to lead Davidson back from down 11, including a three with a little more than a minute left that broke a 74-74 tie. He hit 5-6 free throws down the stretch to seal the victory. The deficit was even greater against Georgetown, where Curry scored 25 of his 20 points in the second half, and sparked an 18-2 run with a four-point play, another three, and two assists that all but erased a 17 point Hoya lead. Tied at 60 with less than four minutes left, Curry drove and hit a tough scoop shot and on the next Davidson possession hit a three pointer to give the Wildcats a 65-60 lead that Georgetown wouldn't come back from.

The most impressive part of Curry's weekend was both Gonzaga and Georgetown (especially the Hoyas after Curry lit up gonzaga for 40) were gearing their entire defense towards shutting him down. The Hoyas and the 'Zags are both very good defensive teams and very well coached, and even with the defensive game plan geared towards him, Curry still put up huge numbers. Wisconsin, Davidson's sweet 16 opponent, is another very good defensive team. Can they slow this kid down?

One last thing about Curry - despite his small stature (although he has gone from a 5'10" HS senior to 6'2" now, and his father, NBA sharpshooter Dell Curry, has been quoted as saying doctors say he may an an inch or two left in him), this kid can have a long and successful NBA career IF he ends up in the right situation. He will never be able to play the point in the NBA, but if you can put him on a team with a big point guard (i.e. Monta Ellis with Baron Davis) that can guard an NBA 2-guard and let Curry slide over and defend the point, why can't he average 15 a game and shoot 45% from deep?


BEST PERFORMANCE BY A TEAM
Washington State

A team known for their defensive prowess, the Cougars set a new standard of excellence for themselves by holding Winthrop and Notre Dame to 27% shooting from the floor and a COMBINED 81 points. In the opening round against Winthrop, the game was tied at 29 heading into halftime. The second half was a completely different story, as Wazzu jumped out on a 23-4 run and never looked back. For the half, the Golden Eagles were outscored 42-11 as the Cougars held them to 16% (4-24) shooting from the floor. In their second game of the weekend, the Cougars shut down a formidable Notre Dame offense, holding them to a season low (actually 23 points below their previous season low) 41 points and 24.5% (13-53) shooting. Despite grabbing a season-high 22 boards, Big East player of the year Luke Harangody might have played his worst game of the year. He scored just 10 points, less than half his season average, while shooting a miserable 3-17 from the floor. Kyle McAlarney didn't do much better - scoring just 12 points on 5-13 shooting while committing 4 turnovers.


BIGGEST CHOKE JOB BY A PLAYER
DeMarcus Nelson, Duke

While sitting in the Verizon Center watching West Virginia manhandle Duke in their second round matchup, my buddy Ross, quite possibly the biggest Duke fan in the world, put it best: "I hope DeMarcus Nelson made a lot of money betting on West Virginia". That's how bad he was in the two games in this year's tournament. He averaged 4 ppg, shot 3-17 from the floor and 2-5 from the line, had as many turnovers as rebounds (6) and was stuffed emphatically by Joe Alexander from West Virginia on consecutive possessions (the second of which resulted in a WVU bucket and subsequent timeout by Duke allowing the replay of the block to be shown on the Jumbotron. What the entire crowd, and I'm assuming national TV audience, saw was Alexander block him, knock him to the ground, and stand over him yelling something very similar to "Get that shot outta here". Ouch.)

Nelson picked the worst time of year to have his two worst games. The ACC's Defensive player of the year could not guard anyone. He got beat time and time again off the dribble and on backdoor cuts. He missed countless open shots that could have helped bring the Dukies back. He even clanged the front end of a 1-and-1 that gave Belmont a chance to win the game - a half-court heave that bounced off the rim. Nelson led the Devils in scoring and rebounding, and all in all had a great year and career. With the national spotlight that Duke's tournament runs carry, it's a shame to see Nelson end his career like this.


BIGGEST CHOKE JOB BY A TEAM
Clemson

This was a tough decision given the number of upsets and blown leads (Georgetown, Vanderbilt, UConn, Duke). I decided to go with Clemson based on the hype surrounding them coming into the tournament. They had just made a run to the ACC tourney final, where the gave UNC everything they could handle for the third time this season. A lot of people were predicting them as sleeper picks for the Final Four. They looked every bit like that team to start their first round matchup with Villanova, jumping out to a 36-18 lead with 5 minutes left in the first half. But the hot shooting of Scottie Reynolds led the Wildcats back. He hit his first three 3's of the second half, including the biggest shot of the game. With just under 12 minutes left in the game, Reynolds banked in a three and was fouled, giving Villanova their first lead of the game at 50-49. After a Clemson lay-up, the Wildcats went on a 13-4 run that put the game away. Clemson was done in by their second half shooting, going 7-29 from the floor and 14-23 from the line.


BEST COACHING PERFORMANCE
Jay Wright, Villanova

This Villanova has not looked like a sweet 16 team all season. They are very small up front even when all their bigs are healthy (Shane Clark has battled exhaustion, and Casiem Drummond had a stress fracture in his ankle, and broke that same ankle on Sunday). Corey Fisher, Malcolm Grant, and Corey Stokes has been inconsistent all season playing along side Scottie Reynolds. The Wildcats may have been the last team put into the tournament field, and found themselves down 18 to Clemson in the first half. Wright did not let his players quit however, leading them to a 75-69 comeback victory. Against Siena, Reynolds was too much as the Wildcats won 84-72 as they advanced to their third sweet 16 in four years to face top seed Kansas. Kudos, Mr. Wright, on a fine coaching performance.


UNSUNG HERO
Mitch Johnson, Stanford

The saying goes "a point guard needs to be a coach on the floor". In Stanford's second round game against Marquette, that saying rang true for Mitch Johnson on a whole new level as Cardinal head coach Trent Johnson got tossed with 3:36 remaining in the first half for arguing a foul call. Mitch Johnson responded by playing his best game of the season. He only scored 9 points, but played an incredible floor game dishing out 16 assists while turning the ball over just once and playing 44 of a possible 45 minutes. He came up especially big in overtime, dishing out three assists and hitting a big three-pointer.


BEST GAME
Western Kentucky 101, Drake 99 OT

Drake had been outplayed by Western Kentucky as the Hilltoppers built a 74-59 point lead with just eight minutes left in regulation. Drake would make a comeback, led by some timely hot shooting. Drake hit four 3's in the last four minutes, spurring them to a 29-14 run to end regulation, capped by a Jonathon Cox three that tied the game at 88 with 35 seconds left. In OT, Drake built an early four point lead thanks to two Josh Young triples, but Western Kentucky tied it up on a free throw and a three from Tyrone Brazelton. After trading free throws, Drake was up 99-98 with 5.7 seconds left. Brazelton brought the ball up quickly and handed it off to Ty Rogers, who hit a 26 footer from the right wing as time expired. The three was also the 30th of the game, which set an NCAA tourney record for most three's in a game.

Drake did good job containing WKU's Courtney Lee, holding him to 15 points (6-16) and 9 rebounds, but they allowed Tyrone Brazelton to explode for a career-high 33 points, to go a long with 5 assists, 5 rebounds, and 6-10 shooting from beyond the arc. Drake had five players hit double figures, led by 29 points and 16 rebounds from Jonathon Cox and 11 points and 14 dimes from Adam Emmenecker.


WORST CALL
Texas A&M vs. UCLA

UCLA has been getting a multitude of close calls recently, and all of the seem to be deciding the outcomes of games (Cal and Stanford). This game was no different. Darren Collison hit a tough lay-up off the glass with 9.5 seconds left in regulation to give UCLA a 51-49 lead. The Aggies put the ball in the hands of Donald Sloan, who drove the lane and had the ball knocked out of his hands, sealing the UCLA victory. Take a look at the picture. No foul there?


WORST BREAK
UConn

Eight minutes into their first round game against San Diego, UConn's pg AJ Price tore his acl when he landed awkwardly on a jump stop during a fast break. You can call me a homer if you want, but this injury was devastating to the Huskies. Not only was Price their best player, and most important player, but he was their leader - the heart and soul of that team. UConn proved that they could beat anyone in the country during the regular season. After they overcame such a tough season in '07, it's a shame this team had to lose because of an injury. Continue reading...

Bracket Breakdown with Ross Weingarten and Rob Dauster

East and Midwest Regions

South Region

West Region

Players to Watch and Final Four Picks

Continue reading...

Bracket Breakdown - West Region

Team To Beat - UCLA

The Bruins will be looking to make their third straight Final Four - the first team to do so since Michigan State did from 1999-2001. Darren Collinson is healthy and playing his best ball of the season. Hopefully the ankle injury to Luc Richard Mbah A Moute won't keep him out past the first weekend and the back spasms Kevin Love was experiencing won't affect him in the tournament. But with the tournament experience that the Bruins have gained over the last two years, it's not to pick them to reach a third straight Final Four.

Team To Watch - UConn

The Huskies have struggled a bit since Jerome Dyson has come back from his suspension, losing three of their last six, but in their 10 games winning streak they proved that they could beat anyone, anywhere. The Huskies size and athleticism inside and shot blocking ability is very tough to matchup with for smaller teams. AJ Price has continually proven he has one of the biggest hearts in the country with his play late in games. The key for UConn will be whether or not their role players step up. You know what you are going to get with Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Price, but if Craig Austrie, Stanley Robinson, Dyson, and Doug Wiggins can play tough defense, hit some three's, and get the Huskies some easy buckets, UConn will be a tough team to knock out.

Upsets To Watch For - #11 Baylor over #6 Purdue

Baylor is a team with five very good guards who combine to score 57.5 ppg, the best of which are Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn. They like to get out and run, mainly because they don't have an inside presence other than Kevin Rogers. Baylor tends to struggle against teams that slow the game down and pound the ball down low, which is not the way Purdue likes to play. Purdue has had a great season, but they lost the only time they faced a team with Baylor's speed and athleticism (Clemson).

Best Matchups - Chase Budinger vs. Joe Alexander, #3 Xavier vs. #14 Georgia

Budinger and Alexander may be the two most athletic white guys in the country and have similar games, with Alexander doing a little more damage in the post and Budinger spending more time on the perimeter. The normal order of things are switched in the 3-14 matchup out west. Georgia, the team from the SEC, gets a 14 seed after coming out of nowhere to win the SEC tournament while Xavier, the mid-major, was ranked in the top 15 all season and earned a 3 seed. Regardless, Georgia comes into the tournament after winning four games in four days (including two in one day) while Xavier has been struggling of late, losing two of their last four games (both to St. Joseph's).

My Pick - UCLA

I see UCLA squeaking by UConn, and then beating Xavier en route to their third straight Final Four, where they get a rematch of their loss to Texas from early in the season. Continue reading...

Bracket Breakdown - South Region

Team To Beat - Memphis

The Tigers were a turn-around jumper from Tennessee's Tyler Smith away from being undefeated heading into the dance. Led by Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts, this Memphis team can run-and-gun with the best of them. The biggest question for the Tigers - how will playing in a weak C-USA affect them coming into the tournament?

Team To Watch - Pitt

Pitt is playing as well as anyone in the country right now, after becoming just the second team in Big East tourney history to win four games in four days for the championship. With Levance Fields finally healthy, this team is deep, tough, and experienced. Ronald Ramon and Fields play off each other very well, with Fields being a penetrator and Ramon a dead-eye shooter. Sam Young was the most improved player in the Big East, and maybe the country, developing a very good jump shot and perimeter game to complement his size and strength inside. DeJuan Blair is an animal on the block and maybe the most difficult box-out in the game with his long arms and 270 pound body.

Upsets To Watch For - #6 Marquette vs. #3 Stanford

I don't see any first round upsets happening in this region, which is probably the toughest region this year. I do like Marquette over Stanford, however. The Cardinals tend to struggle against teams with good guard play. Stanford is a very one-dimensional team with Team Lopez inside and not much else. Marquette has struggled a bit on the road, and with this game being played in Anaheim there will probably be a pretty large contingent of Stanford faithful, but I see the five headed monster of Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Maurice Acker, and David Cubillan being too much for Stanford.

Best Matchups - #4 Pitt vs. #5 Michigan State/#1 Memphis

Tom Izzo has traditionally been one of the best tournament coaches, but no team in the country is playing better than Pitt right now. I like Pitt to win this game. I think they have enough good defenders to slow down Drew Neitzel and Raymarr Morgan, and they may be a better rebounding team than Michigan State is this year. I also like Pitt over Memphis in what would be a phenomenal Sweet 16 game. Pitt is just as athletic and just as tough as Memphis, and the Panther's and have enough experience and guts that they will not be intimidated by the Memphis pressure. The key for Pitt in those two games will be Gilbert Brown. He will draw the defensive matchups of MSU's Morgan and Memphis's Douglas-Roberts, and if he can slow them down, Pitt will have the inside path to the Elite 8.

My Pick - Texas

I think Texas will be too much for Pitt in the Elite 8. DJ Augustin is the best PG in the country, and he has the ability to carry this Longhorns team where Kevin Durant couldn't. The perimeter ability of Damion James and Connor Atchley will offset the interior advantage Pitt has. Continue reading...

Bracket Breakdown - Midwest Region

Team To Beat - Kansas

The Jayhawks are loaded this year. They have a huge front line, they have a group of very good guards, and with Brandon Rush and Sherron Collins healthy, they are deep and talented at every position. If Rush continues to emerge as a go-to scorer (as he did in the Big XII tourney) then the Jayhawks can go a long way.

Team To Watch - Clemson

The Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season after making a run to the ACC tourney finals. Clemson is a pressing team that goes 10 deep, with athletes at every position. Trevor Booker, James Mays, Raymond Sykes, and Sam Perry are all big and athletic, and can play at the top of their 1-2-1-1 press. Cliff Hammonds is their leader and one of the most underrated PG's in the ACC, while KC Rivers is the Tigers leading scorer. Clemson has also proven they are a tough group of kids - Hammonds is currently playing through a fractured wrist suffered while blocking a dunk during their 20-point comeback against Maryland, and James Mays wore a protective brace while taping three fingers together due to a broken bone in his hand for 13 games during the season. Free throw shooting is the Tigers biggest problem, and cost them in their three losses to UNC this season.

Upsets To Watch For - #11 Kansas State over #6 USC, #3 Wisconsin

A lot of people like #13 Siena over #4 Vanderbilt, mainly because Siena as Edwin Ubiles, who is 6'7" and mobile and can stay with 6'7" shooter Shan Foster, but I think AJ Ogilvy will be too tough inside for the smaller Saints. I do like Kansas State over USC, and even making it to the Sweet 16 with a win over Wisconsin. There is a reason Michael Beasley is expected to be the first pick in the NBA draft - he is a phenomenal talent that can go for 40 on any given night. Combine him with for OJ Mayo teammate Bill Walker and streaky shooting PG Jacob Pullen, K-State has the ability to beat anyone when they get hot, and can make a run through the first weekend of the tourney.

Best Matchups - OJ Mayo vs. Michael Beasley/Bill Walker, #7 Gonzaga vs. #10 Davidson

I can't decide what is more interesting here - the matchup between the two of the most talked about freshman in Beasley and Mayo, or the matchup between former high school teammates Mayo and Walker. Gonzaga and Davidson were probably the two mid-majors that everyone would have picked in the preseason to be a sleeper team in the NCAA's. I like Gonzaga in this game - Davidson still hasn't proven they can do more than play the big boys close - but Stephon Curry is good enough to lead the Wildcats past to much bigger 'Zags.

My Pick - Kansas

I think Kansas squeaks by Georgetown in the Elite 8 in what would be a matchup of possibly the two best front-lines in college basketball this year. I think that Kansas's guard play will be too much for Georgetown, with Robinson, Chalmers, and Collins taking the game over. Continue reading...

Bracket Breakdown - East Region

Team To Beat - North Carolina

They won the ACC regular season title. They won the ACC tournament title. They have the favorite for national player of the year. They are the #1 overall seed.Ty Lawson finally looked healthy against Clemson on Sunday. And to top it off, they don't play a game more than two hours from Chapel Hill until the Final Four.

Team To Watch - Louisville

Louisville is a very good defensive team, whether they are in their zone or their press. They have a rotation of four tough guards that play the top of their 2-3 zone and 2-2-1 press, and they have a ton length and athleticism in Terrence Williams and Earl Clark. Louisville runs their offense through center David Padgett, who scores 11.7 ppg but more importantly is a very good passer from the low and high post who can find shooters on the wing and people underneath.

Upsets To Watch For - #13 Winthrop over #4 Washington State

The East Region is the most likely region to see an upset with South Alabama, St. Joseph's, and George Mason all capable of advancing as double digit seeds. However, Winthrop is the most likely upset. They are tourney tested, finally winning a first round game last year against Notre Dame after making the NCAA's 7 of the previous 9 years. Winthrop, like Wazzu, is a team that hangs its hat on defense, but the Eagles are much more athletic. They are led by streaky shooter Michael Jenkins, who averages 14.3 ppg (the Eagles are 15-2 when he scores more than 12 points), and big man Taj McCullough, who averaged 11.3 ppg and 5.6 rpg after a successful transition from the 3 to the 4. I can also see Butler knocking off Tennessee. The Bulldogs can shoot the heck out of the ball, and between AJ Graves and Mike Green, they have two very good senior guards that won't be affected by Tennessee's pressure. If they get hot, Tennessee may not make it out of the first weekend.

Best Matchups - Butler vs. South Alabama, Notre Dame vs. Winthrop, Tennessee vs. Butler

Butler may have been the most talked about mid-major all season, while South Alabama was the most talked about bubble team in the week leading up to Selection Sunday. They play very different styles (Butler is a three point shooting team whereas South Alabama is a very good defensive team that likes to drive), but both have tremendous backcourts that should make this game fun to watch. It will also be interesting to see Notre Dame play Winthrop a year after the Eagles upset the Irish. And if you like three-point shooting, hope that both Tennessee and Butler advance to face each other in the second round.

My Pick - North Carolina

I like North Carolina to get by Louisville en route to San Antonio. UNC probably isn't going to face much of a test until the Elite 8. I really like this Louisville team, and this will be a very exciting game because both teams love to run, but I think UNC has too much talent. Continue reading...

Bracket Thoughts

I usually go into Selection Sunday expecting to have huge problems with who the committee puts in and who they leave out. This year - none. There are really only five teams that can even mount an argument as to being snubbed: Dayton, Virginia Tech, Illinois State, Ohio State, and Arizona State. I think Arizona State is really the only team that has a legitimate gripe. Yes, they blew out Xavier, swept Arizona, beat, USC, beat Oregon, and beat Stanford, but they also were blown out by Illinois and Nebraska and played a horrendous non-conference schedule. They also had an RPI of 82. I know that there are a lot of people out there that have a problem with the RPI, but there is a reason the stat is used. In 1999, New Mexico earned an at-large with the highest RPI (74), and that was when the head of the selection committee was from New Mexico. If the selection process is to have any credibility, then the committee needs to follow the RPI rankings. 82 is simply too high for an at-large team.

Now that's out of the way, let's take a look at the seedings. First of all, how did Butler get a 7 seed? This team has been ranked all season. They won their conference outright, and their conference tournament (last year they didn't do either and earned a 5 seed). And they drew South Alabama in Birmingham, a de-facto home game in the first round. I also think that both Washington State and Oregon got seeded to high, while Kansas State and Baylor got shafted a bit with their 11 seeds.

My only other beef with the bracket is some of the first round match-ups. The committee paired mid-majors with mid-majors (Butler vs. South Alabama, Drake vs. Western Kentucky, Gonzaga vs. Davidson, UNLV vs. Kent State) and high-majors with high-majors (Indiana vs. Arkansas, USC vs. Kansas State, Purdue vs. Baylor, Marquette vs. Kentucky, Clemson vs. Villanova). I realize that this just may be how the committee felt the quality of the teams broke down, but part of the intrigue of the NCAA tournament is the chance for David to take down Goliath. Doesn't this eliminate that somewhat? Continue reading...

Does Anyone Want To Make The Tourney?

Apparently the answer is no. Let's take a look at how teams playing must-win games fared yesterday:

Miami FL - Won 63-50 against NC State.
Dayton - Lost 74-65 to Xavier.
Baylor - Lost 91-84 2OT to Colorado.
Arizona - Lost 75-64 to Stanford.
Ole Miss - Lost 97-95 OT to Georgia.
UMass - Lost 69-65 to Charlotte.
UAB - Lost 78-68 OT to Tulsa.
St. Joseph's - Won 61-47 against Richmond.
Villanova - Lost 82-63 to Georgetown.
New Mexico - Lost 82-80 OT to Utah.
Oregon - Lost 75-70 to Washington St.
Florida - Lost 80-69 to Alabama.
Maryland - Lost 71-68 to Boston College.
Arizona State - Lost 59-55 to USC.
Houston - Lost 80-77 to UTEP.
Temple - Won 84-75 against LaSalle.

For those of you counting, that means bubble teams went 3-13 yesterday. What does it all mean? Not only do the teams that lost have no chance to improve their overall profile anymore, but it opens the door for teams like Temple, Virginia Tech and Ohio State. If these teams can keep winning games, then teams like Villanova, Arizona State, and Oregon, that are sitting squarely on the bubble, can get forced out.

This year's bubble is very weak, and those teams that can play their way into the dance are not very good. What does this mean? Don't expect too many double digit seeds advancing this year. Continue reading...

Championship Week Notes

-BUBBLES BURSTING:

VCU's loss in the CAA semi's, South Alabama's loss to Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt conference tournament and San Diego's WCC conference tournament championship just cost two bubble teams spots in the NCAA tournament if you believe that South Alabama, St. Mary's and Gonzaga are all in the tournament. Are they in the tournament? Let's take a look.

St. Mary's - RPI 38, SOS 137. The Gaels have some very good wins - Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, San Diego State - and they have no bad losses - Texas, Southern Illinois, Gonzaga, San Diego X 2, Kent State. Combine that with their non-conference RPI of 17 and SOS of 31, and they're in.

Gonzaga - RPI 30, SOS 94. The same story as St. Mary's. A number of quality wins - UConn, St. Mary's, St. Joseph's, Virginia Tech, Western Kentucky - and no bad losses - Texas Tech, Tennessee, Washington State, Oklahoma, St. Mary's, San Diego, Memphis. Winning a competitive WCC (at least at the top) also will go a long way. Based on name power alone, the 'Zags are in.

South Alabama - RPI 37, SOS 127. They beat Mississippi State and San Diego, which keeps looking better, and swept Western Kentucky. They had close losses to Mississippi (buzzer beater) and Vanderbilt (2OT). Argue all you want about "good" losses helping teams out, but the committee considers it.

Virginia Commonwealth - RPI 54, SOS 155. VCU is in a much tougher spot. They missed against Miami and Arkansas in nonconference play, but they did beat Houston and Maryland. Their only hope was that all the conference tourney favorites win out, and since that didn't happen, it looks like they will be one of the odd men out.

Teams that still needed to play their way into the tourney (Ohio State, Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon) just had their margin of error erased. Bubble teams better hope and pray that Butler, Memphis, Kent State, and Xavier win their conference tourney's.


-INDIANA:

This is not the same Indiana team that was coached by Kelvin Sampson. They barely beat Ohio State and Northwestern and lost to Penn State and Michigan State (by 30). At least six players, including Big Ten player of the year DJ White, skipped practices after Dan Dakich was named Interim Head Coach (reportedly, the team wanted assistant Ray McCallum to be named interim coach). JaMarcus Ellis was suspended for the Penn State game for mouthing off to coaches. In the last five games, it doesn't even look like Eric Gordon is trying - it seems like he has resigned himself to the fact that he will be leaving Indiana for the NBA after this year and is trying to get there without injury.

The Hoosiers are a shell of their former selves. It's too bad, because this team could have gone a long way riding Gordon and White.


-OFFICIATING:

The terrible season of officiating in college basketball continued this past weekend as UCLA was handed two victories:

Against Stanford:

And against Cal:

Now I understand that, as both Cal and Stanford blew big leads to the Bruins, they shouldn't have been in the position to have a missed call by a ref affect the game this much, but the fact of the matter is that both of these games were decided on very close calls, that easily could have (read should have) gone the other way. Continue reading...

ACC Tournament

Bracket

#8 Wake Forest vs. #9 Florida State
Winner plays #1 North Carolina

#5 Miami vs. #12 NC State
Winner plays #4 Virginia Tech

#7 Georgia Tech vs. #10 Virginia
Winner plays #2 Duke

#6 Maryland vs. #11 Boston College
Winner plays #3 Clemson

Favorites Duke and UNC. Could this be more obvious? The two best teams in the conference and in the country. Hopefully we will see round 3 of the rivalry in the finals.

Sleepers - Wake Forest and Virginia. I really like the Demon Deacons this year. Led by two freshman, Jeff Teague and James Johnson, this is a talented, but inexperienced team. They have beaten Duke this year, as well as BYU and Miami, and are good enough that they can get hot and win four in a row. Virginia is now finally healthy with Singletary fully recovered from his hip pointer and Mikalauskas back. Virginia has lost three ACC games this season in OT, and three others by one or two points. This team is a better team than their record indicates.

Most Intriguing Match-up - If Maryland can hold seed against BC, they take on the Clemson Tigers, to whom they blew a 20 point lead last Sunday - and with it went their at large chances.

My Pick - UNC. Against Duke, they showed that they can play some defense - what most critics said was the achilles heel of their team. Oh, and Ty Lawson will only get healthier. Continue reading...

Big XII Tournament

Bracket

#8 Texas Tech vs. #9 Oklahoma State
Winner plays #1 Texas

#5 Baylor vs. #12 Colorado
Winner plays #4 Oklahoma

#7 Nebraska vs. #10 Missouri
Winner plays #2 Kansas

#6 Texas A&M vs. #11 Iowa State
Winner plays #3 Kansas State

Favorite - Kansas. I know Texas got the one seed (via the 72-69 win the Horns had) but as Kansas is ranked higher, has a better record, and by all accounts is the better team and likely in position to get a one seed. Kansas has one of the most balanced attacks in the country. From big front line (Sasha Kaun, Darrell Arthur, and Darnell Jackson) to their stellar guard play (Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, and Sherron Collins), Kansas has all the parts you are looking for.

Sleeper - Watch out for Baylor at the five seed. Their final record ended up mediocre, but when you factor in a streak where they lost six of seven in the middle of the conference season, their record doesn't look so bad. They won four of their last five (including one over Kansas State) and beat Winthrop and Notre Dame in rout to winning the Paradise Jam. They have a quintet of good guards, led my Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn, and Kevin Rogers can more than hold is own inside.

Most Intriguing Match-up - It's too bad Baylor and Texas A&M can't meet up until the finals (the last two times these teams played, there was a five OT game and a hard pick that knocked down Baylor guard Tweety Carter and almost ended up with the benches clearing). If all seeds hold to form, we will get to see Kansas-Kansas State round 3 in the semis.

My Pick - Texas. I love DJ Augustin. If it wasn't for some freshman in Manhattan, KS he would be the runaway candidate for conference player of the year. Damion James, AJ Abrams, and Conor Atchley are all perfect for their roles on this team. I think the 'Horns upset Kansas in the finals. Continue reading...

Big Ten Tournament

Bracket

#8 Iowa vs. #9 Michigan
Winner plays #1 Wisconsin

#4 Michigan State vs. #5 Ohio State

#7 Penn State vs. #10 Illinois
Winner plays #2 Purdue

#6 Minnesota vs. #11 Northwestern
Winner plays #3 Indiana

Favorite - Wisconsin. The Badgers have had a great season - they went 24-4, with their only losses being to Duke, Marquette, and Purdue twice. They have a formidable front line and, as always, play very solid defense. They struggle finding a consistent scorer on offense at times, but they have enough good players and an effective system so they can get by. Wisconsin runs into problems when they face teams like Duke (lost by 24) and Marquette that are guard heavy, but as the Big Ten doesn't really have any teams like that, Wisconsin has a great chance to win this tournament and possibly earn a one seed.

Sleeper - Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have had a pretty successful season, 18-12, in their first year under Tubby Smith. The combination of a solid front line in Dan Coleman and Spencer Tollackson and the leadership of senior guard Lawrence McKenzie, the Gophers have enough firepower to make a run. They also caught a break in the bracket - Northwestern in the first round, and if they advance they get the imploding Indiana Hoosiers in the second round.

Most Intriguing Match-up - Michigan State vs. Ohio State. They just played on Sunday, where the Buckeyes knocked off the struggling Spartans to keep their Tournament hopes alive. Ohio State probably needs to get this one to get in, especially with San Diego winning the WCC and South Alabama losing in the semis of the Sun Belt.

My Pick - Wisconsin, mostly by default. I get less and less impressed with Michigan State every time i see them play, Indiana is collapsing as we speak, and I don't think Purdue, with their inexperience, can beat Wisconsin three times in a season, especially when the third game will be the Big Ten Championship game. Continue reading...

SEC Tournament

Bracket

E5 South Carolina vs. W4 LSU
Winner plays E1 Tennessee

W6 Auburn vs. E3 Vanderbilt
Winner plays W2 Arkansas

W5 Alabama vs. E4 Florida
Winner plays W1 Mississippi State

E6 Georgia vs. W3 Ole Miss
Winner plays E2 Kentucky

Favorite - Tennessee. The Volunteers have been at the top of the polls all season. They won the SEC East by two games over Kentucky, and have a pretty easy path to the semis. The SEC is not very deep this year, and Tennessee is loaded.

Sleepers - Ole Miss. The Rebels looked very good before the conference season started, but went through a stretch where they lost eight of ten in conference. They won their last three, however, including a win over Arkansas. They are probably going to need to beat Kentucky and reach the semis to make the NCAA Tournament. The Rebels do have a great combo in PG Chris Warren and C Dwayne Curtis, and have proven that they can beat tourney teams (South Alabama, New Mexico, Winthrop, Clemson), but they have struggled mightly away from home. Let's see if they can change that trend.

Most Intriguing Match-up - If Vanderbilt can handle Auburn in the first round, they get Arkansas in the second round. Vanderbilt is in a similar situation to Mississippi as neither of them has proven they can win on the road, but winning in the tournament can go a long way to convincing the committee how good they are. It also would create an interesting match-up between Shan Foster, the 6'7" shooter, and Patrick Beverly, 6'1" scorer that averages 6.7 rpg.

My Pick - Kentucky. The Wildcats have looked very good even without Patrick Patterson after losing to Tennessee by 3, and then beating South Carolina and Florida. Continue reading...

Pac-10 Tournament

Bracket

#7 Arizona vs. #10 Oregon State
Winner plays #2 Stanford

#3 Washington State vs. #6 Oregon

#4 USC vs. #5 Arizona State

#8 Washington vs. #9 California
Winner plays #1 UCLA

Favorite - UCLA. Despite the questionable calls, UCLA swept Stanford and Cal last weekend to win the loaded Pac-10 by three games. UCLA has made back-to-back final fours, but this may be their best team out of the three with the addition of Pac-10 Player of the Year Kevin Love and the breakout season of Russell Westbrook.

Sleepers - Arizona and California. Arizona has had to deal with so much this year, from injuries to the Lute Olsen saga, and as a result has had a pretty disappointing season. But they are loaded with talent - led by Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger - and need to win a couple games to earn an at-large bid. Cal is not quite as talented, but had UCLA beat on Saturday. This team will go as far as Ryan Anderson takes them.

Most Intriguing Match-up - When (if) Arizona beats Oregon State, they match-up with Stanford in the second round. With San Diego getting the WCC bid, and South Alabama losing in the Sun Belt tourney, the number of at-large bids are shrinking, and with Arizona sitting squarely on the bubble, they will need that win against Stanford. It would also be interesting to see Cal get another shot at UCLA in the second round.

My Pick - UCLA. I really like Stanford and Brook Lopez, but I think that the Bruins are just too good this year and have too much experience in tournament play. Continue reading...

Big East Tournament

Bracket

#8 Villanova vs. #9 Syracuse
Winner plays #1 Georgetown

#5 West Virginia vs. #12 Providence
Winner plays #4 UConn

#7 Pitt vs. #10 Cincinnati
Winner plays #2 Louisville

#6 Marquette vs. #11 Seton Hall
Winner plays #3 Notre Dame

Favorites - Georgetown and Louisville. On the last Saturday of the regular season, Georgetown beat Louisville by three at home in what was essentially the Big East regular season championship game. No team in the country was playing better than Louisville in the last month of the season as they got healthy and gelled as a team, but Georgetown has been the model of consistency this season, winning game after game but never blowing anyone out.

Sleepers - Syracuse and Providence. Two teams decimated by injuries this year. Jim Boeheim has already proven that he can take a team on a run through the conference tournament, doing it as a #9 seed in 2006. they have already beaten Georgetown (the second round match-up) this season, and with guys like Jonny Flynn, Donte Greene, and Paul Harris, they have a number of players that can carry the 'Cuse. Providence was picked as a top-8 team preseason, but lost Sharaud Curry for the season, and have had numerous other players miss game time. As their sweep of UConn proves (the team they would face in the second round) they can beat anyone in the conference on any given night.

Most Intriguing Match-up - Villanova vs. Syracuse. This is almost an elimination game for these two teams. Syracuse may be in right now, but a first round win would go a long way to shoring up that bid, especially with Villanova being one of those bubble teams they're battling with. 'Nova probably has to beat Syracuse and Georgetown to get in

My Pick - UConn. Call me a homer all you want. I really think the Huskies have it this year. They get the first round bye, they play tough D, they don't rely on jump shots as much as other teams so tired legs won't have as much of an affect (actually, it may even help as UConn's best offense tends to be throw it up, and go get the rebound), and I love AJ Price down the stretch of close games. Sticking with the Huskies. Continue reading...