NBA Draft Prospects: Patty Mills, St. Mary's

Stats: 18.4 ppg, 3.9 apg, 2.2 spg, 2.9 t/o's, 40.2% FG, 33.8% 3PT, 85.9% FT

Listed Size: 6'0", 175 lb, 8/11/1988 (20 years old)

(photo credit: Contra Costa Times)

About Him: Last summer, Patty Mills was shooting up NBA draft boards. Why? Not only was he the only college guy playing in the Olympics, he also just so happened to be lighting up Beijing - including dropping 20 (along with 3 steals and 2 assists) on the USA team. And while he looked great in the Olympics, when he came back to school, Mills did little to ease the previous concerns about his game. He ended the year by breaking a bone in his hand and sitting out most of the last two months of the year.

In fact, Mills may have actually hurt his draft status this season. But before we get to the negatives, let's look at what he does well. Mills is in the conversation with Darren Collison and Ty Lawson has the fastest guys in this years draft class. He can really get out and lead the break, as he is able to beat defenders down the floor.

His quickness also makes him a dangerous player in the half court as he can (theoretically) turn the corner on most defenders, especially in a pick-and-roll situation. Another aspect where Mills' quickness makes him dangerous is in the passing lanes as he averaged well over 2 spg this past season. This helps make up for the fact that Mills does not project as a great defensive player in a 1-on-1 setting - his size and strength is not quite up to NBA standards even for a PG.

Mills is also an excellent shooter from deep. He has picture perfect form, a quick release, and can hit it from about 25 feet consistently off the dribble or the catch. This is also Mills' biggest problem - he falls in love with this shot, and has a tendency to force tough ones (he led the class of PG's with 3.3 contested threes attempted per game).

Not only does this take away from his efficiency as a scorer (he shots just under 34% from deep), but he means that Mills is not taking advantage of his quickness. You would think a guy with his first step would be able to get into the paint at will, but Mills did not. There are two possible reasons for this: Mills is neither a great ballhandler or a great finisher in the paint. He is not explosive enough to challenge people at the rim, and he has yet to develop a floater (a shot which he must if he ever plans on sticking in the league). Mills did not have the confidence in his penetration ability, and thus settled for tough threes.

Comparisons: Best Case: Less athletic Bobby Jackson, Aaron Brooks; Worst Case: Poor man's Luke Ridnour.

Bottom Line: Mills definitely has some athletic tools that could end up making him an NBA player, but he has yet to learn how to use those tools within his game. Short, scoring PG's that shoot a lot are a dime a dozen. Will he ever learn how to use his quickness? Right now he looks like an early second rounder.

Highlights:





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PATTY MILLS TO STAY IN THE DRAFT: The St. Mary's point guard, who put himself in the national spotlight after lighting up team USA for 20 in the Olympics, will be staying in the draft.

"In my head, I'm 100 percent in," Mills told the San Jose Mercury News after working out with a dozen players at the Golden State Warriors facility. "There's a great opportunity for me to play in the NBA this year and I'm trying to make the most of the opportunity."

Patty Mills may have played his last game as a Gael.
(photo credit: OregonLive)

He said the only way that he would be coming back to school was if enough teams told him that he needed another year of seasoning in college, and he "hasn't heard that as of yet".

There are a couple of issues at hand here. The first, and probably most influential, is that Mills may still be trying to capitalize on his success during the Olympics. As good as he is, the fact remains that he would be returning to a West Coast Conference school, which would severely limit the national exposure that he would receive. It only gets worse when you consider St. Mary's will be losing five seniors (three starters), including all-WCC forward Diamon Simpson.

I doubt that there is any way that his stock could ever be as high as it was after the Olympics, and in fact it could probably only get hurt by returning to school, especially if he were to suffer another freak injury (if you remember, he broke his right hand against Gonzaga late in the season).

So while this might be the time that his stock is the highest, this year's point guard crop is very deep (Brandon Jennings, Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry, Jrue Holiday, Jonny Flynn, Jeff Teague, Eric Maynor, Ty Lawson, and Darren Collison are all eligible this year and rated above Mills by Draft Express). Mills could very well be a late first round pick (Draft Express has him going 29th, NBADraft.net has him at 20th), it is a risky decision given that second rounders don't get guaranteed money and there are so many other talented point guards available.

But all it takes is one team to fall in love with him. Europe also would not be a terrible option for Mills, as he is Australian and thus would not count against the cap on Americans.



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Thursday N.I.T. Turmoil

All the fat has been trimmed away, and we are now left with the four best non-NCAA tournament teams, ready to fight it out in Madison Square Garden for the N.I.T championship. BCG might have coached his last game for Kentucky last night, and in the nightcap, San Diego State and St. Mary's battled it out to see who has to make the cross-country flight to NYC next weekend.

Wednesday's Results

- #2 Notre Dame 77, #4 Kentucky 67 - 'Gody sank a three-pointer right out of the tip-off, an indicator of things to come. He finished with 30 points and 11 boards as the Irish continued their dominance at the Joyce Center. Kentucky's Jodie Meeks had only one shot attempt in the first half, as Patrick Patterson had to do most of the heavy lifting. In the second half, Meeks finally got hot, hitting 5-8 from behind the arc, but it was too late. The closest Kentucky could get was within 6, but they had no answer for Harangody, who hit four consecutive foul shots to ice the game. Meeks finished with 21 points, and Patterson had 18 points as well. I'm  not going to discuss the future of BCG because, I imagine B.I.A.H will be covering that in-depth in the near future.

- #1 San Diego St. 70, #2 St. Marys 66 - This was the first time I have gotten a chance to watch the Aztecs in action. Unbeknownst (yes this is an actual word) to the Trizzle, this was the biggest game in San Diego State history. Off the bat, the Aztecs opened the flood gates with a 13-0 run, which nearly blew the roof off the Cox Arena. The Gaels slowly chipped away at the Aztecs lead, which held for the entire game. Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan both logged double-doubles for St. Mary's. But with just under two minutes left Patty Mills picked up his fifth foul and left the game with a team-high 18 points. From here on the Aztecs were able to finish the Gaels off from the charity stripe. Billy White led the Aztecs in scoring with 17 points on 8-12 shooting from the field and three other starters scored in double-digits. When the game ended, fans stormed the court, and Frank Sinatra's "New York, New York" blasted through the speakers. This was the first time in school history the Aztecs have advanced past the second round of a post-season tournament. This was just the third loss of the season with Patty Mills in the lineup for St. Marys.

Semifinal Matchups (March 31 @ MSG)

- 7:00PM: #3 Baylor vs. #1 San Diego St. - ESPN2

- 9:00PM: #2 Penn St. vs. #2 Notre Dame - ESPN2

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Tuesday N.I.T. Turmoil

We have hit our first dry stretch of the NCAA tournament. It's a good thing the N.I.T. provides a descent helping of interesting matchups to get us thru the week. Creighton, the NCAA's odd man out, hosted the Billie Gillespie Farewell Tour in front of a packed house, and two of the elite scoring guards in the country went toe-to-toe in the nightcap.

- #4 Kentucky 65, #1 Creighton 63 - The Qwest Center in Omaha was entirely sold out, and I would guess that a majority of the tickets were sold to students, because it was loud, very very very loud. With every shot that Creighton made, the place erupted like it was a buzzer-beater. Second Team A.A. Jodie Meeks was shut down the majority of the game, but hit the game winner on a nice dribble drive to the basket, and converted on the 3-point play. Perry Stevenson had a 13 points and grabbed 10 boards and Patrick Patterson chipped in with 12. Booker Woodfox led the Blue Jays with 18 points but shot a dismal 9-23 from the field. This game had all the makings of a NCAA tournament game; neither team led by more than 5, and there were 11 lead changes. I think the wildcats need two more post season wins to salvage their season, and Gillespie's coaching status.

- #2 St. Marys 80, #6 Davidson 68 - Steph Curry vs. Patty Mills, not much else needs to be said. Oh ya, this was the fastest sell-out in the history of St. Mary's College. At the half, Mills had 17 and Curry had 12. The pace of this game was set by the two speedy guards. St. Mary's had a better team performance, getting excelent play from Diamond Simpson (12,15) and Omar Samhan. There were stretches of this game that looked like a consistant fast break drill with both guards running the floor, leading to some beautiful finishes (still trying to find a good clip). Curry finished with 26, but Mills had the more complete game, logging the double double of 23 points and 11 assists.

QUARTERFINALS

Tonight's Games
- 9:00PM: #2 Penn St. @ #1 Florida - ESPN
- 7:00PM: #3 Baylor @ #1 Auburn - ESPN

Wednesday's Games
- 7:00PM: #4 Kentucky @ #2 Notre Dame - ESPN2
- 9:00PM: #2 St. Mary's @ #1 San Diego St. - ESPN2 Continue reading...

Will St. Mary's Be Dancing?

This was almost a worst case scenario for Randy Bennett.

His St. Mary's Gaels sit squarely on the bubble in one of the more unique positions in recent memory. They were one of the best teams in the country before their star, Patty Mills, went down with a broken hand with 10 games left in the season.

After starting 18-1 with Mills, the Gaels sputtered to a 6-4 finish over the last 10 games, finishing the season with a 24-5 record.

But Mills was coming back for the WCC tournament. Despite the struggles, SMC still managed to land the #2 seed, meaning that they would get a two-round by into the semifinals. All they needed to do was win back-to-back games, and they would earn themselves an automatic bid to the dance. At the very least, one win and an impressive performance from Mills and the Gaels against Gonzaga in the finals could have been enough to land an at-large bid.

Patty Mills has not been the same in his two games back from broken hand.
(photo credit: ESPN)

Instead, Patty Mills struggled against Portland in the semi's, finishing with just 12 points on 3-12 shooting, 2-9 from three.

That's ok.

It was his first game back.

Just rusty, right?

Wrong.

Mills was even worse against Gonzaga, the team he torched for 18 points and 6 three's in just 17 minutes back in February. For the game, he finished with just five points, going 2-16 from the floor and 0-7 from three. That puts his two game totals at 5-28 shooting, 2-16 from three, and a all of 17 points.

This puts the committee in a tough position. St. Mary's does not have a resume that can earn an at-large bid. Their RPI is 45, which is pretty bad considering they are 25-6 and their SOS is 160. They have just two top 50 wins (San Diego State, Utah State) and a win over fellow bubble dweller Providence. But 20 of their 25 wins have come against teams outside the top 100.

Earlier in the year, the Gaels still had a weak resume, but they passed the "smell test". Mills looked like a pro over the summer playing in the Olympics. Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan for as big of a frontline as there is in the country. Carlin Hughes, Mike McConnell, and Ian O'Leary headline a very solid group of role players.

But now that Mills is struggling, is this the same team? Can the committee reward them for getting Mills back when he hasn't proven to be the same player he was?

The Gaels get one last chance on Friday to prove their worth. They may need to win big, and have a huge game (40+) from Mills, in order to have a chance at an at-large spot. Continue reading...

Busy Friday for St. Mary's

Patty Mills has officially been cleared to participate in the WCC Tournament. We heard earlier in the week that Mills was cleared to start practicing.

This is huge news for the Gaels. They are the #2 seed in the WCC Tournament, which means that they get a bye to Sunday's semifinals. According to Andy Katz, Mills will be going through five-on-five contact drills on Friday and Saturday in Las Vegas with the team. He has been doing shooting drills, and if you believe what head coach Randy Bennett says, "you would never know" Mills had broke his hand.

The more important issue is that now St. Mary's has a chance to prove that, with Mills, they are the team that was 18-1 and ranked and not the team that has gone 6-4 without him.

Personally, I don't know how much effect it will have on the Gaels tournament chances. I cannot recall a situation like this ever happening. In 2000, Cincinnati looked like they were a lock for a #1 seed before Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the C-USA tournament. Cinci ended up losing, and the committee dropped the Bearcats to a #2 seed because they were not the same team with Martin that they were with him.

So if Cinci got punished for not having Martin, would it not make sense that St. Mary's should be credited for getting Mills back?

There is a real simple way for the Gaels to solve this problem.

Win the WCC.

If they really are better than Gonzaga with Mills (as many, including me, have speculated based on their record and the whooping they were putting on Gonzaga when Mills was injured), then shouldn't it stand to reason that St. Mary's can beat whoever they play in the semi's and, assuming the 'Zags win as well, beat them in the finals? Would it not be easier to lock up an automatic bid than to have to hope that a group of ten people can decide on how good the Gaels really are?

Also of note for the Gaels is that they did decide to schedule another game. Next Friday, Eastern Washington will travel to St. Mary's to play the Gaels.

St. Mary's is allowed to schedule another game because they didn't reach their maximum of 30 in the regular season. Eastern Washington is allowed an extra game because they played at Hawaii.

As I said before, the game is not being played with the intention of trying to impress the selection committee. If St. Mary's does, in fact, make the dance, they will be going 9 or 10 days between games, which is far too much for a team trying to reincorporate such an important piece back into their line-up. Continue reading...

St. Mary's May Add Another Game

In a unique bit of strategy, Randy Bennett is considering adding another game after the WCC tournament, but before Selection Sunday.

The NCAA allows a team to play 29 games, plus one for the conference tournament if it is not in an exempt tournament. If the team does play in an exempt tournament (like the Anaheim Classic that St. Mary's played in is), then the number of games the team is allowed to play goes up to 32.

Patty Mills may be back in the line-up for the WCC Tournament.
(photo credit: ESPN)

The Gaels played 29 games this season, which means that they can still add another one legally.

Playing in the game would not effect St. Mary's RPI rankings much, and likely would not influence the committee much at all because the Gaels would either be playing a D2 team or an independent D1 team.

So why play the game?

Reps.

Randy Bennett is trying to get a team that was missing its star player, a guy who dominates the ball, for a month back into a rhythm. Missing a guy that is that instrumental in your offense changes the way a teams play. You have to adjust how you play without the star, but you also need to adjust to the way you play with your star.

If St. Mary's does end up getting into the dance, having an extra game to get back into a rhythm, both for the team and for Mills, could really benefit the Gaels. Continue reading...

Patty Mills out for a month

St. Mary's had been playing arguably their best basketball ... ever. Prior to the Gonzaga game, they were 18-1 with a 15 game winning streak, sitting atop the WCC standings at 5-0. In the first 17 minutes of the game, they were up 34-28 and Mills had 18.

All that changed with three minutes to go in the half. As Mills, who was averaging 18.7 ppg and 3.9 apg, penetrated to the middle, he slipped and landed on his right hand. Initially diagnosed as a sprained wrist, he came out and tried to shoot around in second half warm-ups, but apparently it was too painful as he sat out the rest of the game with ice on his hand.

Now comes much worse news - instead of a simple sprained wrist, Mills actually broke a bone in his hand and is expected to be out for around four weeks. This is a huge loss for the Gaels, who, as evidenced by the 28-11 run Gonzaga went on after Mills left, are just not the same team without their PG.

Senior Carlin Hughes will most likely take over point guard duties. Continue reading...