The Only Conference Preview You Need To Read: Mountain West

Over the next month and a half, we will be rolling out all of our 2011-2012 Season Preview posts. You can find a full schedule of all the preview posts here. If you want to browse through the rest of the conference previews, click here.

AWARDS

Player of the Year: Drew Gordon, Sr., New Mexico

Simply put, Gordon is a force on the block for the Lobos. One of the best big men in the country as a high school senior, Gordon never found his rhythm at UCLA. But in Steve Alford's uptempo offensive system, Gordon flourished. After becoming eligible in December, Gordon finished the season as one of the best big men in a conference with a number of quality front court players. On the season, he averaged 13.0 ppg and 10.5 rpg. While his rebounding numbers may end up taking a hit if Alex Kirk and Cameron Bairstow see a jump in production as sophomores, Gordon should become a productive offensive force. He will have had a year to learn the system, Steve Alford will have had an offseason to figure out how to run an offense through Gordon and with Dairese Gary gone, someone on the Lobos is going to have to become the offensive focal point.


And a close second goes to...: Chace Stanback, Sr., UNLV

There isn't much that Stanback can't do on a basketball court. A 6'8" wing, he's extremely valuable to the Runnin' Rebels spread attack. He's big enough that he can rebound like a power forward, but his range and perimeter ability make him a matchup nightmare for opposing fours. And believe it or not, Stanback's DUI arrest over the summer may end up being the reason that he finally puts all of that talent together. Instead of returning home to LA for the summer, Stanback stayed in Vegas and refocused himself towards becoming a better player. He was inconsistent throughout much of conference play a year ago, but if a summer of work can build on his strong finish to the 2010-2011 season, Stanback should finally develop into the star most believed he would be when he first arrived on the UNLV campus.

Breakout Star: Kendall Williams, So., New Mexico

Williams can flat out play. As a third and fourth option for the Lobos as a freshman, Williams -- who won the freshman of the year award in the MWC -- finished with averages of 11.5 ppg and 4.0 apg despite playing alongside Dairese Gary. Gary graduated in the offseason, which means that Williams, along with Drew Gordon, will become the center of the New Mexico attack. To get an idea of what kind of production can be expected, Williams scored 18 points in both of the Lobo's NIT games after Gary suffered a season-ending knee injury. Ironically enough, Williams was originally committed to UCLA, which means that Ben Howland actually could have had Gordon, Williams and Stanback on his roster at the same time.

All-Conference First-Team:

- POY: Drew Gordon, Sr., New Mexico
- G: Hank Thorns, Sr., TCU
- G: Kendall Williams, So., New Mexico
- G: Anthony Marshall, Jr., UNLV
- F: Michael Lyons, Jr., Air Force
- F: Chace Stanback, Sr., UNLV

All-Conference Second-Team:

- G: Oscar Bellfield, Sr., UNLV
- G: Wes Elkmeier, Jr., Colorado State
- G: Chase Tapley, Jr., SDSU
- F: Drew Wiley, Jr., Boise State
- F: Afam Muojeke, Sr., Wyoming

Four summer storylines

- Realignment: The MWC has been in the midst of conference realignment since the first rumors were floated a year and a half ago. They were also the first league to go ahead and make a move. It started with Boise State's addition to the league, a move made for football that backfired when both Utah (to the Pac-12) and BYU (WCC and Independent) left the conference. The next step was TCU jumping ship to join the Big East, where their football program will reign king while their basketball team may go winless for a decade. Next summer, it will be Nevada and Fresno State coming into the conference. That's it, well, for now at least. If the Big 12 manages to remain an entity, some believe that the MWC could see a couple of their programs fill in the gaps.

- Key players that aren't returning: The future of a number of players was up in the air this summer, and unfortunately many of the kids in question will no longer be playing in the Mountain West. Perhaps the most important was the saga of Brian Carlwell, the San Diego State big man. Carlwell, if you remember, was originally a member of Illinois when he was injured when teammate Jamar Smith crashed his car when driving drunk. He applied for a sixth year of eligibility but was denied. TCU's star guard Ronnie Moss was kicked off the team in January and he will not be returning to the program. Wyoming was able to make a solid hire by bringing in former Florida assistant Larry Shyatt, but that was not enough to keep the Cowboy's two leading scorers -- Desmar Jackson and Amath M'Baye -- from transferring out. Emmanuel Negedu's career is officially over, which may actually be a good thing. He's the former Tennessee forward that nearly died when his heart gave out during a workout two summers ago. Perhaps the only player whose future was in doubt that returns is Player of the Year candidate Chace Stanback at UNLV, who changed his lifestyle after getting a DUI during the offseason.


- Kevin Young vs. Steve Fisher: With Malcolm Thomas, Billy White, Kawhi Leonard and Brian Carlwell all leaving the program this offseason, Steve Fisher knew that he needed to bring in some front line players that would be able to contribute immediately. So Fisher recruited former Loyola Marymount power forward Kevin Young, who committed to SDSU only to change his mind in June and opt to transfer to Kansas. It was a no-brainer for Young to make the move -- when a top-six program of all-time offers you a scholarship and has minutes available, you go there -- but it put Fisher in a terrible position. He didn't have any big men because he stopped recruiting them when Young committed. Fisher spouted off in the media, Bill Self responded, and that was the end of it, at least publicly. I have to admit, I was happy to hear about this decision by Young. If Fisher had been taken a job at one of the high-major openings this offseason, would he have been concerned about Young's commitment?

- Old faces back at UNLV: Rice is a former player at UNLV. He was a member of Jerry Tarkanian's Runnin' Rebel teams of the early 90's, warming the bench for the likes of Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon and Greg Anthony. Rice will be attempting to bring UNLV back to their glory years, and what better way to do that than by creating as many ties to those great teams. He added Stacey Augmon to his coaching staff. His next move should be to make amends with Grandmama.

Four storylines heading into the season

- The holdover season?: In many ways, the 2011-2012 season seems like one where the Mountain West will be playing the waiting game. For starters, the league is down to just eight members this year with BYU and Utah leaving and Boise State joining the fray. With Nevada and Fresno State on the way for the 2012-2013 season, the league moves back to ten teams -- well, at least that's the plan -- while also bolstering their basketball product. Nevada and Fresno State both have solid basketball programs with some national relevance. The Wolfpack were down last season, but they have a talented young nucleus while Fresno State is just a year removed from sending Paul George to the lottery.

But its more than just what programs the league is waiting for. Boise State is a young team, but Leon Rice has done a good job bringing in some young talent. They may need a year to gel, but don't be surprised if they are competing for conference titles sooner rather than later, especially if he is able to tap the Australian pipeline he started by bringing in freshmen imports Anthony Drmic and Igor Hadziomerovic. Colorado State also seems to be in a holding pattern this season. Most of their core are juniors, and with Colton Iverson (a Minnesota transfer) and Daniel Bejarano (an Arizona transfer) sitting out this season, they may be competing for a spot in the NCAA Tournament in a year. San Diego State's core will be in the fold for two more seasons -- Chase Tapley and James Rahon are juniors and Xavier Thames is a sophomore -- that will be joined by Dwayne Polee (a St. John's transfer) and JJ O'Brien (a Utah transfer) in a year.

- Who is third?: New Mexico and UNLV are the clear favorites to win the Mountain West. Both are borderline top 25 teams and, barring something unforeseen, both will be playing in the NCAA Tournament come March. After that? Who knows. San Diego State has a talented back court but they will struggle to fill the void in their front court. Boise State brings in quite a bit of talent, but their roster is has 10 freshmen and sophomores. Colorado State has an experienced team, but they lack a go-to scorer. Air Force and TCU have two of the best players in the conference in Michael Lyons and Hank Thorns, respectively, while Wyoming might have the third most overall talent on their roster if they can keep their players healthy. The MWC is going to be a two-horse race for the top spot, but the battle to finish in third may end up being more exciting.

- Shabazz Muhammad: UNLV has always been able to mix-it-up with the big boys when it comes to recruiting. They've been an ideal landing spot for transfers that fizzled out at some major programs -- Tre'Von Willis transferred in from Memphis, Quintrel Thomas began his career at Kansas and Mike Moser and Chace Stanback are both former UCLA Bruins. Bryce Jones (a USC transfer) will be sitting out this season per NCAA rules while Reggie Smith (a Marquette transfer) won't become eligible until December. Katin Reinhardt is a top 100 point guard currently committed to the Rebels, but perhaps their biggest splash will be if they can land Shabazz Muhammad. With Andre Drummond now a member of the Class of 2011, Muhammad is hands down the best high school senior in the country. He also happens to hail from Vegas. Will Rice and company be able to keep him home?



- How long does Jim Christian have?: TCU may be on their way out of the MWC, but it will be interesting to see if head coach Jim Christian makes it through the season. The Horned Frogs have gone a combined 24-41 the last two seasons and just 6-26 in league play. With leading scorer Ronnie Moss now out of the program, TCU doesn't look like they will be getting much better this year, and that's coming off of a 1-15 campaign in league play. If you can't win in the Mountain West, what makes you think you will be relevant in the Big East?

Power Rankings

1. New Mexico: The Lobos just never seemed to find a rhythm as a team last season. Whether it was the result of Emmanuel Negedu having his career end in December or the mid-season addition of UCLA transfer Drew Gordon, New Mexico just never quite became the team that many of us expected them to be heading into the season. After starting the season out 10-1, New Mexico lost six of their next nine games -- including four of five to start out MWC play -- before finishing at 8-8 in league play. In addition, they had two four game winning streaks and one four game losing streak in league play, twice beating BYU while getting swept by Utah and losing to Wyoming.

The good news for the Lobos is that they return essentially everyone from last year's team. Drew Gordon, who turned into a double-double machine by the end of the season, will be back and should be the best big man in the conference. Joining him up front will be fellow senior AJ Hardeman and talented sophomores Alex Kirk (Ed. Note: Kirk had surgery on his back in August)and Cameron Bairstow, giving the Lobos one of the best front lines out west if the young guys can grow into the potential they displayed as freshmen. Shooting guard Kendall Williams is back after earning MWC Freshman of the Year last season. He'll be joined on the perimeter by Philip McDonald, who averaged double figures as a junior, and Tony Snell, a promising sophomore that had a couple of big games as a freshman. Arizona State transfer Demetrius Walker, whose name should sound familiar to you, will become eligible this season, and don't be surprised when freshmen Dominique Dunning and Hugh Greenwood crack the back court rotation as well. There are two keys to the season for Steve Alford's club. The first is how well the young guys develop. Will Kirk, Snell and Bairstow be more consistent this season? Can Walker, Dunning and Greenwood have an impact immediately? The second, and more important, factor will be at the point. The only player New Mexico loses is Dairese Gary, who was one of the most underrated point guards in the country. He could score, he was a tough defender and he was a leader for this club. Junior Jamal Fenton will get first crack as his replacement. After Gary blew out his knee in the MWC Tournament, Fenton shot 3-14 in the NIT but did have 12 assists to just four turnovers. New Mexico has the potential to be a top 25 team and will contend for the league title.


2. UNLV: The Runnin' Rebels had a bit of disappointing season in 2010-2011. Most people had them pegged as the third best team in the conference heading into the season, and that's exactly where they finished, the margin between them and co-champs BYU and SDSU was significant. It seemed like UNLV, at times, struggled with a lack of leadership. They didn't have a go-to player offensively with Tre'Von Willis battling knee problems. And while there were times when the Rebels looked borderline unstoppable offensively -- they had a litany of options -- there were times were it seemed apparent no one wanted to take a big shot.

This season, Willis is gone. He graduated along with Derrick Jasper. Lon Kruger left for the opening at Oklahoma. But the core of this team returns to play for Dave Rice, a former BYU assistant and a member of UNLV's teams in the early '90's. As was the case last season, UNLV's back court is going to be their stretch. Oscar Bellfield will probably be listed as the team's point guard -- and most likely will be their primary ball-handler -- but he will share playmaking duties with Anthony Marshall, an athletic, left-handed junior that does a little bit of everything. Sharpshooter Kendall Wallace is back after tearing his acl and missing the 2010-2011 season, as is defensive stopper Justin Hawkins. Marquette transfer Reggie Smith may also see some minutes once he gets eligible in December. Up front, Quintrel Thomas will be counted on to have a big season. The former Kansas big man is capable of putting up big numbers, but struggles with his consistency. Sophomore Carlos Lopez and senior Brice Massamba, who both provided quality minutes off the bench, return to the rotation and will be joined by UCLA transfer Mike Moser. The x-factor is going to be Chace Stanback. With much of the MWC's star power gone from last season, Stanback has a real shot at being the Player of the Year in the conference. A 6'8" wing, he can do a lot of different things on the floor -- shoot from deep, score, rebound, defend multiple positions -- but is he ready to become "the man"? Will he take that next step towards being a star? If he does, UNLV has a very good chance of winning the MWC.


3. San Diego State: The Aztecs had, without a doubt, the best season in the program's history in 2010-2011. They won 34 games. They were ranked in the top ten for much of the season. They won their first ever NCAA Tournament game, advancing to the Sweet 16 before succumbing to the powers of Kemba Walker. It will be tough for Steve Fisher's club to build on that success, however. They lost their entire front line -- Billy White, Malcolm Thomas and Brian Carlwell all graduated while Kawhi Leonard went pro -- and their starting point guard in DJ Gay. That is a lot of talent and production to replace.


There are some pieces at Fisher's disposal, however. For starters, he does get back the perimeter tandem of Chase Tapley and James Rahon. Throw in Washington State transfer Xavier Thames, who averaged 4.6 ppg and started four games as a freshman, and the Aztecs have a solid core in their back court. It will be interested to see if Jamaal Franklin or LaBradford Franklin can handle an expanded role as well, paticularly LaBradford, who will have a shot at significant minutes at the point. The front court will be a much different story. Fisher caught a break when Garrett Green, a 6'11" forward who started for LSU, opted to transfer to SDSU for his final season. He will be eligible immediately. Where the rest of the help comes from up front will be interesting to watch, however. Tim Shelton is an injury-prone senior. Alec Williams played all of 10 games as a junior. DeShawn Stephens is a JuCo transfer. Seeing the lack of size up front should tell you why Steve Fisher was so upset with Kevin Young changed his mind and transferred to Kansas. SDSU should have enough talent to finish above .500 and in the top half of the league, but they likely won't be competing for the MWC crown.


4. Colorado State: Its hard to call Colorado State's 2010-2011 campaign anything but disappointing. At least the finish, that is. After starting the year 18-7 overall and 8-3 in the MWC and finding themselves firmly in the bubble conversation, the Rams lost four of their last five in the regular season -- including an inexcusable 17-point loss to Air Force -- and fell in the first round of both the conference tournament and the NIT. To make matters worse, Tim Miles' club will lose first-team all-conference forward Andy Ogide and his front court mate Travis Franklin to graduation.

The strength of Colorado State's team this season is going to be the back court. They return Dorian Green, a junior point guard that has started every game since he's been on campus, and sharpshooting junior Wes Eikmeier, a transfer from Iowa State that averaged 9.1 ppg last season. Throw in junior Jessie Carr -- a kid that has all kinds of potential as a freshman before getting injured and missing most of the 2009-2010 season -- and freshman Cody Mann, and the Rams have a solid group in their back court. The issue is going to be replacing the production up front, where they lose 29.0 ppg and 12.2 rpg in Ogide and Franklin. The two most likely replacements will be Greg Smith and Paul Hornung. Hornung is a more physical presence on the block and while Smith is a more dangerous offensive option, he did grab 15 boards against Fairfield in the NIT. Both are a bit undersized, however, which raises the importance of the development of redshirt freshman Chad Calcaterra and redshirt sophomore Trevor Williams. Can either provide minutes inside this season? There are a number of solid pieces that Tim Miles has at his disposal, but without a real go-to scorer on the roster and a lack of size inside, Colorado State's upside is limited.


5. Boise State: The Broncos, under the tutelage of former Gonzaga assistant coach Leon Rice, finished second in the WAC a year ago. And while a late-season eight-game winning streak vaulted Boise into second-place and carried them to the WAC Tournament final and the CBI semis, their move to a new conference next season is going to come with a new-look team. Boise graduates their top four scorers from a year ago, including star guard La'Shard Anderson.

Boise is going to be very young this season. In addition to the seven freshmen and three sophomores on the roster, junior Drew Wiley is a transfer from Oregon that sat out last season and the two seniors -- Westly Perryman and Tre Nichols -- are both Juco transfers in their second year in the program. There is some reason to be optimistic about the Broncos next season, however. Both Perryman, who started last season, and Nichols, who came off the bench, had some big games late in the year and will provide as experienced of a back court as you can hope for on this roster. Sophomore forwards Ryan Watkins and Thomas Bropleh both had promising freshmen campaigns, as did sharpshooter Jeff Elloriaga. Throw in the 6'7" Wiley, who played in 46 games with Oregon in his two years there, and Rice has some pieces to build around. The biggest question mark is at the point. Can Perryman and Nichols become playmakers and facilitators, replacing the production BSU got from Anderson? The x-factor are the newcomers. Rice has an incoming class of eight kids -- including two JuCo transfers -- that can make an impact. Point guard Mikey Thompson and big man Darrious Hamilton are the two most highly-regarded players in the class, but the two to keep an eye on are Aussie-imports Anthony Drmic and Igor Hadziomerovic, both of whom are 6'5" wings that can score. If everything clicks for the Broncos, there's a shot this team could finish in the top three in the league, although they are probably a year or two away from contending.


6. Air Force: No one expected much of anything out of the Falcons last season. After going 1-31 in the previous two seasons in MWC play, Air Force was once again expected to bring up the rear of the Mountain West. Losing their second game of the season to D-III Colorado College only reinforced that notion. But Air Force clicked during the year, going 9-4 in non-conference play -- including a win over Wofford -- and finishing 6-10 in league play. While the season as a whole can be seen as mediocre, the Falcons advanced to the CIT where they won a game, just the sixth time in program history that they made a postseason tournament.

There is reason to be optimistic for next season as well. While Air Force loses two starters and three of their top five scorers -- including point guard Evan Washington and second-leading scorer Tom Fow -- they do return Michael Lyons. The 6'6" junior is the kind of athlete and explosive scorer (he went for 20 seven times last season) that rarely makes his way through the program. He averaged 13.9 ppg as a sophomore on one of the slowest teams in the country. He has a chance to be one of the better players in the conference next season. The question is where he will get his support. In addition ot the loss of Washington, Fow, and Brooks, Evan Bohannon decided to transfer out of the program and into Wisconsin, where his brother Jason played. Taylor Broekhuis, a slender 6'10" center, returns inside, although he'll be expected to pick up more of the interior slack. Taylor Stewart, Mike Fitzgerald and Todd Fletcher are all back on the perimeter, although they are going to have to provide more production this season. With a mediocre recruiting class coming in, if Air Force can repeat their success of a year ago, it will be a good season.


7. Wyoming: The Cowboys kicked off the 2011 coaching carousel early, firing head coach Heath Schroyer with seven games remaining after Schoyer coached the team to an 8-15 start and just one win in their first nine conference games. Interim head coach Fred Langley didn't do much better, as the team went 2-6 in his tenure. Wyoming made a solid hire in Florida assistant Larry Shyatt, but he won't have much to work with in his first season. His two leading scorers -- Desmar Jackson and Amath M'Baye -- left the program to transfer to Southern Illinois and Oklahoma, respectively. And Afam Moujeke, who was one of the best young players in the conference two seasons ago, suffered a second catastrophic knee injury in January.

The key to Wyoming's competitiveness next season is going to be health. Muojeke averaged 13.8 ppg as a freshman and 16.8 ppg as a sophomore, but after suffering a season-ending knee injury as a sophomore, he struggled to get healthy last year before a torn meniscus ended his season early. How much is he going to be able to produce this year? The same can be said for Adam Waddell, who averaged 9.4 ppg as a sophomore but played in just 23 games as a junior. Those two will be joined by USC transfer Leonard Washington -- the guy that hit Blake Griffin with this cheap shot -- along the front line, which means there is some potential for the Cowboys. Don't be surprised if freshman Larry Nance, Jr, gets in the mix as well. The back court has some potential as well. Senior point guard JayDee Luster is back, as is Francisco Cruz, who was Wyoming's third-leading scorer a year ago. The x-factor on the perimeter may end up being JuCo transfer Luke Martinez, a high-scoring guard that missed last season with a broken elbow. Shyatt has some potential on his roster, and if his team can stay healthy and play together, finishing in the top-half of the league isn't out of the question.


8. TCU: 2010-2011 was a disaster for the TCU program. After a promising, 9-4 start in non-conference play -- which included wins over Texas Tech and USC -- the Horned Frogs put together one of the worst seasons in Mountain West history. TCU went 1-15 in league play. Their last regular season win came on January 12th, which happened to be 10 days before leading scorer Ronnie Moss was kicked out of the program by head coach Jim Christian. They did beat Wyoming in the play-in game for the MWC Tournament, the second time they beat the Cowboys -- who fired their coach midway through the February. Like I said, last season was a disaster.

The cupboard isn't exactly empty, however. Point guard Hank Thorns led the league in assists (7.0 apg) despite playing on a team that, at times, struggled to score. He's the team's leader. Junior forward Garlon Green (not to be confused with this guy) proved to be a consistent scorer last season. Senior swingman JR Cadot came on strong late in the season and should develop into a double-digit scorer this year. Also expect to see a jump in production from Amric Fields, a sophomore big man. Those are all solid pieces for TCU, but there are still going to be a number of issues with this team. They lack a real go-to scoring threat and they don't have any depth. While Kyan Anderson, a three-star point guard recruit, should help, Ryan Rhoomes getting ruled ineligible by the NCAA is going to hurt. TCU has a ways to go before they are competitive in the MWC, which makes it laughable this team is going to the Big East next season.
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The Mountain West will survive BYU's departure

UPDATE: Great timing, Rob...


Expansionacolypse may have ended last summer (we hope), but that doesn't mean that teams have finished shifting their allegiances.

The latest rumor is the addition of Utah State to the Mountain West Conference to offset the departure of BYU (WCC in hoops, independent in football), Utah (Pac-10), and TCU (Big East).

Even with the addition of Boise State, its obvious that the conference has suffered a pretty significant blow in regards to the product that they can put on the football field. But this isn't a college football blog, and the new league looks better and better as a basketball league.

Let's assume that Utah State joins the MWC in 2012-2013, the same year that Fresno State and Nevada come aboard. (Hawaii joins that same year, but only in football. Their basketball program is headed to the Big West.) Take a peak at what that league would look like:

• UNLV
• New Mexico
• San Diego State
• Colorado State
• Wyoming
  
• Air Force
• Nevada
• Utah State
• Fresno State
• Boise State
  

That's pretty daunting.

UNLV and New Mexico have always had pretty good basketball programs, and while both are a bit down this season, that is less the norm than it is a fluke. The Runnin' Rebels have been in the NCAA Tournament three of the past four seasons, including a Sweet 16 run in 2007 and a trip to the second round a year later. New Mexico made the second round last year and three straight NIT's before that.

Steve Fisher has finally built the San Diego State into a power. It took a while, but has his team sitting at 20-0 and in the top five. He's built up a following in Southern California and should be able to feast and the talent in that region that UCLA and USC pass on.

Utah State has inarguably been one of the best programs in the country the past decade. Stew Morrill is simply a winner. He's made the tournament seven of the past 11 seasons, including at-large bids in 2006 and 2010.

Trent Johnson and Mark Fox built Nevada into a power, making four consecutive NCAA Tournament between 2004-2007 and sending players like Ramon Sessions, Kirk Snyder, and Nick Fazekas to the league. The school also was ranked in the top 25 in football when they knocked off Boise State last year. I don't think the MWC is complaining about adding them.

The top five teams in that league have all proven themselves capable of putting a top 25 team on the floor.

The rest of the league isn't quite as daunting. Colorado State is dangerous this season, but it remains to be seen if Tim Miles can build on that success with Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin graduating. Fresno State was a power in the early 2000's under Jerry Tarkanian and Air Force made two tournaments in the middle of the last decade. Wyoming would be the bottom of the barrel in the new MWC.

Perhaps the most promising program is Boise State. They made the tournament in 2008, just hired Gonzaga assistant Leon Rice, and currently sits at 5-2 and in second place in the WAC. There is plenty of reason for optimism for the Broncos.

If Utah State does make the jump -- which is quite definitely still an if, but an if that appears fairly likely to happen -- it will probably mean that an 11th basketball school (a 12th football school, giving the league a conference title game) is to be added. The teams that have been mentioned -- San Jose State, Idaho, New Mexico State, and UTEP.

UTEP is probably the ideal choice. They recently hired Tim Floyd and have always had a relatively strong hoops program. Any of the other three programs would dilute the bottom of the league.

But regardless of who the 11th team is, the fact is that Mountain West looks like they will be as strong as they have been in basketball despite BYU's departure.
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The Only Conference Preview You Need To Read: The MWC

Summer officially ends on September 22nd, but for me, the end of summer always coincided with the end of August. Or when I had to go to school. (That first day was always the worst, wasn't it?) Anyway, school is right around the corner, which means that college basketball season is around the corner, down the street, through two lights, and on the left. Since we've all had a fight with our GPS at one time or another, we at BIAH will take this week to roll out our way-too-early, all-encompassing conference previews.

To browse through the other conferences, click here.


Pre-season Awards

Player of the Year: Jimmer Fredette, BYU

This one isn't even all that close. Fredette averaged 22.1 ppg and 4.7 apg last season while shooting 44% from three and 89.6% from the line. He is a big time scorer with out-the-gym range. Fredette has a tremendous handle, and is a crafty finisher in and around the rim. What Dave Rose likes to do with this team is, essentially, spread the floor and allow Jimmer to operate. He can get into the paint, and if the defense collapses on him, he can kick out to the open shooters. If there is a knock on Fredette, its his defensive ability and his toughness. Fredette missed time -- a couple of games, a second half during conference season -- due to a couple of different illnesses. Regardless, this is an extremely talented kid that will put up impressive numbers for a team that competes for the conference title. He's a potential first-team all-american, which don't come around the MWC all that often.


And a close second goes to: Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State

Leonard is a specimen. He's a 6'7" athlete with long arms and he knows how to use those tools. He's really aggressive going to the glass, which sets the tone for the rest of his SDSU teammates, and is a terror when he gets out in transition. What sets Leonard apart from other big men in the MWC is that he plays, and projects at the next level, as more of a perimeter player, a Gerald Wallace kind of guy. Last season, most of his production came as a result of his tools -- offensive rebounds, transition buckets, getting into the lane and elevating over defenders for a short jumper. Most players make their biggest jump between their freshman and sophomore years, and I expect Leonard to make that jump if he has improved his offensive repertoire. A better jumpshot, more fluid offensive moves, and an improved back-to-the-basket game (he plays the three quite a bit for this team) would make him arguably the best player on the west coast and a much more ideal NBA prospect.

Breakout Star: Dairese Gary, New Mexico

Last year, all anyone talked about for New Mexico was Darington Hobson's talent and the big shots hit by Roman Martinez. But flying under that radar was Gary. Gary reminds me a bit of Chauncey Billups. He is a strong, athletic point guard that plays with great control. He can get to the rim and is excellent at drawing fouls and getting to the line, but he's not overly aggressive. He can knock down threes, but he doesn't force too many. And most importantly, he makes big shots and shows up for big games. He averaged 20 in the Lobo's last seven games, and put 25 and 23 on BYU in the Lobo's two wins. Steve Alford is going to need Gary to step up before Drew Gordon gets eligible, and even when Gordon is on the court. New Mexico doesnt have a ton of playmakers this season, so expect big numbers, and a number of big shots, out of Gary this season. (Ed. Note: We are aware Gary was a first team all-conference player, but how many people outside of New Mexico -- and apparently BYU -- knew, or knows, who this kid is?)


All-Conference First Team

• POY - Jimmer Fredette, BYU, Sr.
  
• G - Dairese Gary, New Mexico, Sr.
• G - Tre'Von Willis, UNLV, Sr./Ronnie Moss, TCU, Jr.
• G - Jackson Emery, BYU, Sr.
  
• F - Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State, So.
• F - Drew Gordon, New Mexico, Jr.

All-Conference Second Team

• G - Oscar Bellfield, UNLV, Jr.
  
• G - Chace Stanback, UNLV, Jr.
• G - Afan Muojeke, Wyoming, Jr.
  
• F - Andy Ogide, Colorado State, Jr.
• F - Malcolm Thomas, San Diego State, Sr.
  

Freshman of the Year: Alex Kirk, New Mexico

Kirk was a bit of a steal for Steve Alford. A ranked recruit (he is in or around the top 100 on most of the major recruiting sites) that was pursued by a number of big time programs, Kirk is a 6'10" forward with excellent range on his jump shot. He's solid when operating in and around the paint, and looks to be a decent defender as well, but it is his jump shot that makes him so valuable to New Mexico. Alford likes to run an offensive with a spread floor, and with a post talent like Drew Gordon joining the fray in December, keeping space in the paint would be ideal. Kirk is an excellent shooter out beyond the three-point line, which means that not only will pick-and-pops with Dairese Gary be a weapon in Alford's arsenal, Kirk will force a defender to stay close to him. Expect Kirk to see a lot of important minutes this season.

All-Freshman Team

• G - Kendall Williams, New Mexico
  
• G - Kyle Collinsworth, BYU
• G - Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State
• F - Karam Mashour, UNLV
  
• F - Chad Calcaterra, Colorado State
  

What Happened?:

• The MWC blew up, in the bad way: 2010-2011 will be the last season of the MWC as we know it. As of 2011, Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada will be joining the league from the WAC, while BYU is headed to the WCC (for basketball) and Utah will become a member of the Pac-10. Egads, it was complicated. The MWC went from arguably the best league outside of the Big Six to close to collapse to barely surviving. The question now: what happens next?
  


• Tre'Von Willis got slap happy: Willis was arrested over the summer for allegedly beating up his girlfriend. Willis received a one game suspension after pleading out to a lesser charge.


• BYU's back court depleted: The Cougars were going to have one of the best back courts in the country this season. Then Michael Loyd Jr., the dynamic back-up guard that exploded onto the national scene with big performances when Jimmer Fredette was sick and a 26 point performance in BYU's first round tournament win over Florida, was told to pack his bags. Tyler Haws was told to pack his bags as well, expect Haws is headed to the Phillipines to complete his LDS mission. Oh well. Fredette and Jackson Emery is still pretty solid.


• SDSU scheduling woes: The Aztecs will likely be the MWC favorite in the majority of the preseason polls. Why can't they put together a legitimate non-conference schedule?


• Transfers galore: Right now, the MWC is the go-to conference for major conference transfers looking for a new start. UNLV has Chace Stanback and Mike Moser (UCLA), Derrick Jasper (Kentucky), Quintrell Thomas (Kansas), Tre'Von Willis (Memphis), and Tyler Norman (Iowa State). Colorado State has Andy Ogide (Ole Miss) and Wes Eikmeier. Wyoming brought in Djibril Thiam from Baylor and Leonard Washington from USC. Hank Thorns is headed to TCU from Virginia Tech. San Diego State has Xavier Thames (Washington State) and Brian Carlwell (Illinois). New Mexico was the most active this offseason, bringing Drew Gordon (UCLA), Emmanuel Negedu (Tennessee), and Demetrius Walker (Arizona State). Yes, that Demetrius Walker.
  
  The most interesting story? Either Brian Carlwell, Emmanuel Negedu, or Demetrius Walker, although Leonard Washington did this.


• Will Brown's letter: This was just weird.
  

What's Next?:

• A memorable ending to the MWC: As we mentioned earlier, this will be the final season that the MWC looks like the MWC we in the college basketball world have grown to love. Can these clubs send the league out in fashion? Last season, four teams made the NCAA Tournament. This season, those same four look to be capable of making another tournament run. Wouldn't that be something? Breaking up a league that sent four teams to the tournament in back-to-back seasons? Breaking up what is probably the best conference out west?
  


• A battle up top: I think San Diego State is the best team in the conference. But BYU has the best player, and New Mexico looks like they will once again be a force to be reckoned with, especially with Gordon gets eligible in December. All three of those teams have a very real shot at winning the conference title. What if Tre'Von Willis is allowed to participate this season? There could very well be a four-way battle in the final week of the season for the MWC title. That would be fantastic.


• Another battle up top: Jimmer Fredette seems like the safe bet for preseason player of the year, but its not a sure thing. Kawhi Leonard is a beast. Dairese Gary is one of the most underrated guards in the country. Drew Gordon should have a big season. Tre'Von Willis? Ronnie Moss? Afam Moujeke? There are soe very good hoopers in this league.
  

1. San Diego State: SDSU has an absolutely loaded front line, one that is good enough to be considered among the best in the country. It starts with sophomore Kawhi Leonard, who is one of the country's best kept secrets. A 6'7" power forward, Leonard is already one of the best rebounders in the league thanks in large part to his great wingspan and athleticism. He has the tools to be a combo-forward, and as his offensive repertoire develops, he will only get better. Joining Leonard up front are seniors Billy White and Malcolm Thomas, both of whom averaged double figures last season, and Brian Carlwell, a 6'11" center. With that group, the Aztecs are once again going to be a team that goes hard to the offensive glass (8th in the country in OREB% last season). The back court was where SDSU had a bit of an issue last season, as they didn't have a ton of shooting threats. Their best back court player is DJ Gay, a 6' point guard that will be counted on as Steve Fisher's primary ball handler and creator. He did average 10 ppg and 3 apg, but a bump in his ability as a creator would help improve SDSU's efficiency on their first shot. Chase Tapley does return as well, and with the addition of freshman Jamaal Franklin and Washington State transfer Xavier Thames, Fisher will have more options in his back court this year. SDSU will be the popular pick as MWC favorite.


2. BYU: The good news is that the Cougars will bring back Jimmer Fredette, their dynamic point guard that had declared for the draft back in April. Fredette may very well be the most exciting player in the country. He's not overly quick or athletic, but he is a lights out shooter off the catch or the dribble with range for days, he has ankle-breaking handle, and he has a crafty game in and around the paint. The bad news is that BYU loses quite a bit outside of Fredette. Jonathon Tavernari and Chris Miles graduated, the talented but enigmatic Michael Loyd Jr. got the boot, and Tyler Haws will be taking two years off for his Mormon mission. The Cougars do get Jackson Emery, who may actually be a better shooter than Fredette, back for his senior season to join Fredette on the perimeter. Junior Charles Abouo also returns, but the key may be the development of freshmen Kyle Collinsworth and Anson Winder, who were both fairly highly regarded high schoolers. Up front, Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies will both return, as does 6'10" junior James Anderson, who has played limited to this point in his Cougar career. Chris Collinsworth, a 6'9" sophomore (and Kyle's older brother) that just got back from his two-year mission, will also be back. No one on the Cougar front line has much scoring prowess, but there are some big, physical bodies that will be able to bang on the block with just about anyone. Fredette alone is enough to make BYU a contender in the MWC, but the issue is going to be replacing the pieces they lost. Haws and Tavernari, who played some power forward for the Cougars, were good enough shooters to spread the floor and let Fredette have space to operate. Loyd was a dynamic scorer that was able to complement Fredette and provide Rose with playmaker insurance if Fredette got hurt or tired. The Cougars will be in the mix all season long, but I'm not convinced that this team will be as good as they were last year.


3. New Mexico: The Lobos, who had a disappointing end to a 30 win season last year, lose MWC player of the year Darington Hobson and sharpshooting Roman Martinez. In their stead comes Emmanuel Negedu and Drew Gordon, both of whom were top 25 recruits in 2008. Negedu's plight has been well documented, but he is a strong, athletic forward that will help New Mexico on the glass and in the paint defensively. Gordon will likely be better. A 6'9" power forward that averaged double figures at UCLA will have spent a full year developing his game by the time he gets eligible in December. Gordon also underwent knee surgery this offseason, but he should be ready to go before he is eligible to suit up. Its difficult to imagine that Gordon won't be a dominating force in the MWC. AJ Hardeman, a 6'8" forward that played significant minutes last year, is also back. Freshman Alex Kirk, a 6'10" forward that reminds some people of Wisconsin's Keaton Nankivil, could be the x-factor along the front line, as his shooting touch can spread the floor will make him a nice complement to Drew Gordon inside.. With this strength in their front court -- particularly Gordon -- don't be surprised if New Mexico looks to get the ball inside more often this season. The Lobos return their starting back court. Dairese Gary is a strong, athletic point guard who loves to have the ball in his hands late and reminds me a little bit of Chauncey Billups. He was a 1st team all MWC performer, and played his best basketball down the stretch. Long range threat Phillip McDonald returns as well. The issue for this New Mexico team will be developing depth. Will Brown and Nate Garth are no longer on Steve Alford's roster, which means that seldom used returners like Chad Adams, Jamal Fenton, and Curtis Dennis, along with Alford's four incoming freshmen, are going to be fighting for minutes. The Lobos have talent at the top of their roster, and as long as Alford can develop some depth, this team will be in the mix for the MWC title when Drew Gordon gets eligible.


4. UNLV: UNLV's season was seemingly in jeopardy over the summer when Tre'Von Willis was accused of assaulting and choking a woman at an off-campus apartment. But last month, Willis plead out to reduced charges and got handed a one (non-exhibition) game suspension, meaning that UNLV's leading scorer -- and the most dangerous offensive weapon in the MWC not named Jimmer -- will play for Lon Kruger this season. Willis was far and away the best scorer on the UNLV roster last season, but that doesn't mean there isn't talent here. Chace Stanback should be counted on to develop a more predominant scoring role, while point guard Oscar Bellfield and wing Derrick Jasper -- who should be fully healthy -- are both talented enough to improve on their numbers from a year ago. Don't be surprised if sophomore Anthony Marshall has a big year, while freshman Karam Mashour should also see some minutes. With the notable exception of Kendall Wallace, who tore his acl, the Rebel's entire back court returns. The issue for UNLV will be in the front court. Darris Santee graduates and Matt Shaw was kicked out of the program. Brice Massamba does return, and redshirt freshman Carlos Lopez will be eligible. The key, however, may end up being Kansas transfer Quintrell Thomas, who gets eligible this year. Thomas was a top 100 power forward out of St. Patrick in New Jersey, and should provide the Rebels with some much needed muscle inside. Even without Willis, this is a team that plays a similar style to last season, spreading the floor and allowing their talented perimeter players to make things happen.


5. Colorado State: The Rams will be an interesting team to watch this season. They went just 16-16 last year, but those 16 wins were equal to head coach Tim Miles production his first two years in Fort Collins. They went 0-9 on the year against the MWC's four tournament teams, but they cleaned up against the bottom of the league and finished fifth in the standings. But most importantly, they bring back the majority of their roster. Four starters return, including senior forwards Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin, who were both double digits scorers a year ago. Pierce Hornung and Greg Smith will provide depth, but the real test will be whether big men Trevor Williams, a 7'0" redshirt freshman, and Chad Calcaterra, a 6'10" three-star recruit, are ready to compete at this level. Sophomore Dorian Smith is back. He had a very good year as the Rams' primary ball handler, leading the team in minutes, points, and assists. Sharp shooter Adam Nigon returns, as does Andre McFarland, who dealt with back issues all last season. Rounding out the back court rotation is Jesse Carr (returning from an injury last season), Wes Eikmeier (an Iowa State transfer), and freshmen Maurice Wiltz and Dwight Smith. This is going to be an experienced team that finally got a taste of the postseason, even if it was the CBI. They need Smith to develop into a go-to scorer, and they need Calcaterra or Williams to develop into a contributor, but if you want to pick a sleeper in this league, Colorado State is your team.


6. TCU: The Horned Frogs are going to have a tough time improving on the year they had last season -- five conference wins -- but it won't be Ronnie Moss' fault. After averaging 15 points and 6 assists last season, Moss was a second team all-MWC performer. He will be joined in the back court by Hank Thorns, a 5'9" Virginia Tech transfer that started part-time for the Hokies. Beyond that, much of the Horned Frogs depth is going to come from newcomers -- Jarvis Ray is a 6'6" freshman guard, while JR Cadot and Sammy Yaeger are JuCo transfers that will provide some depth at the off-guard spot where TCU will be looking to replace the shooting of Edvinas Ruzgas. Up front is an even bigger question mark as the team's leading rebounder, Zvonko Buljan, graduated. Nikola Cerina and Garlon Green both had decent freshman seasons that could turn into promising sophomore years, but after that its a bunch of question marks. Freshman Amric Fields, JuCo transfer Andre Clark, and Howard transfer Cheick Kone (who is coming off of knee surgery) should help with size and depth. Expect a big year from Moss without a lot of wins to show for it.


7. Wyoming: Last year was a rough one for Wyoming. Leading scorer Afam Muojeke blew out his knee midway through the year and two players -- starter AJ Davis and Thomas Manzano -- left the team mid-season. The good news is that much of that roster returns, although bringing back a group that won just 10 games isn't awe-inspiring. As I said, 6'8" wing Muojeke is back while sophomore Desmar Jackson, who showed some signs of being a player as he filled in Muojeke's scoring role, also returns. JayDee Luster will man the point, while Adam Waddell and Djibril Thiam look to be the starters in Wyoming's front court. Its difficult to imagine Wyoming making the jump to contender this season, but with the pieces they have coming back -- especially a healthy Muojeke, who led the Cowboys to an 8-8 start -- Wyoming should be (much) more competitive in league play.


8. Utah: After an incredibly inconsistent 2009-2010 season, Jim Boylen's last season in the MWC looks like it will be a rebuilding one. Luka Drca and Kim Tillie have graduated while Carlon Brown and Marshall Henderson have transferred, meaning that the Utes lose four of their top five scorers and essentially all of their back court. The guys that do return -- Shawn Glover and Jace Tavita -- averaged a whopping 4.8 ppg in over 32 combined minutes. Of Boylen's nine newcomers (five of who are freshmen), seven are either guards or wings, which means that there will be some serious competition for minutes and plenty of available shots. The front court does return some big bodies -- 6'8" Jay Watkins, 7'0" Jason Washburn, and 7'3" David Foster (who averaged 4.0 bpg). The front court for Utah has some size and talent, but how good the Utes are this season is going to depend on what they can get out of the new guys in their back court.


9. Air Force: The Falcons weren't just bad last season. They were terrible. They won just two games in conference play, both again Wyoming (who went 3-13 in the league), one of which came during the MWC tournament. Their best win last season came against Niagara. And they lose leading scorer Grant Parker. But there is reason for optimism here. For starters, Air Force was pretty solidly decimated by injuries last season. Eleven different players started a game -- Parker missed ten games, while third leading scorer Tom Fow missed four and starting center Sammy Schafer suffered a concussion so serious he missed the last 28 games of the year -- which means that there are a number of kids with real game experience on this roster. It was also a young roster last season. Fow and Evan Washington are both tough and fairly talented seniors that return to anchor the roster, but the rest of the rotation (which included a whopping 21 players in 2009-2010) will essentially be made up of sophomores with a few juniors sprinkled in. There is room for improvement here. Air Force put up some good fights last season in conference play -- they nearly knocked off New Mexico twice -- but they didn't have the scoring power to spring an upset. The Falcons should more competitive, but without a major influx of talent (which isn't coming this year) their best case scenario is a .500 season with a handful of league win.

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BYU to leave the MWC, head to the WCC in basketball

It's official.

Gonzaga will need to make room. They are no longer alone at the head of the WCC table.

After two weeks of speculation, BYU finally pulled the trigger, as they will officially become a football independent, sending the rest of their sports teams to the West Coast Conference in the 2011-2012 school year.

The question now becomes what happens to the MWC and the WAC. The MWC has lost Utah and BYU, meaning they lost their stranglehold on the Salt Lake City markets, but they will add Boise State, Nevada, and Fresno State. It seems likely that the conference will survive as the WAC reinvented, although the pipe dream of an automatic qualifier into the BCS is dead.

For the WAC, the situation is much more dire. Will they be able to keep the remaining six teams -- Utah State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Hawaii, Idaho, New Mexico State -- as members? Will the MWC poach Utah State? Can they bring in a couple of schools from Conference USA? BYU's decision could be the spark that sets off a chain reaction that will drastically alter the landscape of college basketball's second tier conferences.

As far as basketball is concerned, the 'Zags are well into their second decade of basketball dominance in the WCC. And while the addition of BYU will likely change that, this should still be a major boost to the WCC and, in turn, the Gonzaga program. From our post earlier today:

For starters, BYU is always going to play Utah State, who is a perennial NCAA Tournament threat (two at-large bids and four tournament overall in the last six seasons), so by joining a different conference, they aren't going to be losing a quality resume game. And by joining the WCC, BYU would make the league a perennial two-bid conference, with the potential -- with St. Mary's and the recent successes of teams like Portland, San Diego, and even upstart Loyola Marymount -- for even more.

BYU is much bigger -- 33,000 students, while no one in the WCC has even 10,000 -- and could complicate things with the religious aspect -- BYU is a mormon school, while seven of the eight WCC schools are Catholic while Pepperdine is affiliated with the Church of Christs -- but the WCC is still the Cougars best option.

And don't forget about the league's ESPN deal, which allows Gonzaga to get quite a bit more national exposure than BYU gets in the MWC even if it is coming around midnight on the east coast.

This is huge for the WCC.

Even with St. Mary's emergence and the potential shown by Loyola Marymount and Portland in the last couple of seasons, the WCC has essentially been a one team league. Adding BYU gives them two teams that will almost assuredly be in the NCAA Tournament on a yearly basis. And if St. Mary's can continue their ascendance to becoming an elite mid-major program, the WCC will have a 1-2-3 atop their league that will rival that of the A-10, Conference USA, the MWC, and the MVC, other leagues that are generally considered the first step down from the Big Six.

This should help the conference as a whole, as well. Not only are they adding the Salt Lake City market -- the WCC now can claim residence in Salt Lake City, Spokane (and by default Seattle), Portland, LA, and the Bay Area -- they are doing it at a time when their ESPN deal needs renegotiating. More exposure and better competition makes the conference better. In turn, does that mean that the league's lesser programs can start recruiting at a higher level? Can Santa Clara now get into the conversation when it comes to some of the best players in California?

Think about it. What would the difference be between C-USA and the Sun Belt if Memphis, and to a lesser degree UAB and UTEP, weren't in the league? What would the A-10 be if Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and St. Joe's left? Would the remnants be all that much better than the CAA?

The WCC just became a top ten conference nationally. How's it feel?

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Both the MWC and the WCC would be good landing spots for BYU

The current realignment stalemate revolves around BYU and their decision on whether or not to go independent in football.

If they do go independent, then in all likelihood they are going to have to leave the MWC in all other sports. With a Wednesday deadline to make a decision (that could very well come this afternoon), all the talk this week is about where BYU and what is their best option.

I'm not going to pretend to know much about the economics of college football, so in this forum we are strictly talking about what the best outcome is for college hoops and Dave Roses's program. And as we know all too well, that probably plays a (very) minor role in the decision making process.

Jeff Eisenberg says that the best option for BYU basketball is to stay in the Mountain West Conference, and I tend to strongly with that sentiment. Let's face it -- the MWC is a better league than the Pac-10 this season, and it was last season as well. With programs like New Mexico (who has signed Steve Alford to a ten year deal), San Diego State, and UNLV being joined by Fresno State and Nevada -- two programs with their own storied, and in some cases notorious, basketball programs -- it is quite possible that the MWC will continue to battle with the Pac-10 for West Coast supremacy. Don't forget about Boise State, who made the NCAA Tournament in 2008.

If BYU does stick around, then don't be surprised if the MWC also adds Utah State, bringing another very good basketball program -- and even more of the Salt Lake City market -- into play. That, my friends, would be an absolutely loaded basketball conference; one that would be difficult to label as a mid-major if they routinely put three and four and five teams -- which is a real possibility -- into the Big Dance.

But if the Cougars do decide to go independent, Andy Katz says that joining the WCC is a better move than becoming a member of the dead conference walking WAC. He makes some compelling argument. For starters, BYU is always going to play Utah State, who is a perennial NCAA Tournament threat (two at-large bids and four tournament overall in the last six seasons), so by joining a different conference, they aren't going to be losing a quality resume game. And by joining the WCC, BYU would make the league a perennial two-bid conference, with the potential -- with St. Mary's and the recent successes of teams like Portland, San Diego, and even upstart Loyola Marymount -- for even more.

BYU is much bigger -- 33,000 students, while no one in the WCC has even 10,000 -- and could complicate things with the religious aspect -- BYU is a mormon school, while seven of the eight WCC schools are Catholic while Pepperdine is affiliated with the Church of Christs -- but the WCC is still the Cougars best option.

And don't forget about the league's ESPN deal, which allows Gonzaga to get quite a bit more national exposure than BYU gets in the MWC even if it is coming around midnight on the east coast. Hey, I'm watching.

BYU is going to be alright now matter what decision they happen to make.

The real question is what happens to everyone else. Do teams like UT-San Antonio fill in the holes in the WAC? Do we get some amalgam of the non-BCS schools forming a super-conference across the country? Will Fresno State and Nevada be able to afford the $5 million they may be forced to pay the WAC?

Whenever BYU makes their decision, the trickle down will be fun to watch unfold. Stay tuned.

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Conference Tournament Preview: The Mountain West

Where: Thomas and Mack Center, Las Vegas

When: March 10th-13th

Final: 7:00 pm Versus



Favorite: New Mexico Lobos

The Lobos have been the best team in the MWC all season long. They won their first 12 games of the season which included victories over Texas A&M and Cal. They beat Texas Tech and Dayton. After losing their first two games in league play, the Lobos reeled off 14 straight to win the MWC regular season title. In that streak was a sweep of MWC runner up BYU.

Darington Hobson is as versatile a player as you will find on this level.
(photo credit: Beyond the Arc)

The first player you have to talk about when discussing New Mexico is Darington Hobson. A 6'6" forward, Harington's biggest strength is his ability to play multiple positions. He is a playmaker and can handle the ball, but it also strong enough to mix it up in the paint with the big boys. Remember the game winning block he had against BYU? But he is far from the only player that the Lobos have. Roman Martinez has turned into an assassin, a lefty small forward with a knack for knocking down big shots. Dairese Gary has been great this year, outplaying Jimmer Fredette in their two matchups, averaging 24.0 ppg and 5.0 apg.


And if they lose?: BYU Cougars

If New Mexico is the best team in the league, BYU is very close second. Their two losses to New Mexico came by a total of six points. The Cougars are one of the more exciting teams to watch not only in the MWC, but in the country as a whole. They are a team that likes to get out and run the floor, led by one of the most talented point guards in the country in Jimmer Fredette. Fredette reminds me a lot of Steve Nash. He's not all that athletic, but when he has crafty, ankle breaking handle, can shoot out to about 25 feet, and has a knack for finishing nifty leaners in the paint.

Jimmer Fredette reminds some of a young Steve Nash.
(photo credit: Deseret News)

But he is far from the only talent on this team. With Tyler Hawes, Jackson Emery, and Jonathon Tavernari on the roster, this team can play with essentially three shooting guards on the floor, opening up driving lanes creating a lot of space for a guy like Fredette to create. Michael Loyd has proven a more-than-capable back up at the point, and Chris Miles and Noah Hartsock are tough interior players. BYU can put up a lot of points in a hurry, and if they get hot, can play with anyone in the country.


Don't count out: San Diego State Aztecs and UNLV Runnin Rebels

Both the Aztecs and the Rebels have more to play for than just an MWC title. Both are still trying to solidify a pot in the tournament. UNLV is probably safer at this point, as most are projecting them somewhere around a nine seed based on some quality out of conference wins and a W against both BYU and New Mexico. Tre'Von Willis heads up a very good group of perimeter players, but if there is an achilles heel to this team, it is their interior play.

San Diego State is on the other end of the spectrum, as their team is built around the interior play of Billy White, Malcolm Thomas, and Billy White. When they are getting to the offensive glass, they are a tough team to beat. SDSU has been hot of late, winning six of their last seven.


Sleeper: Utah

The Utes are a tough team to figure out. They have some nice wins (Illinois, UNLV twice), but also some questionable losses (Idaho, Seattle, Wyoming, Pepperdine). The Utes have some solid guards in Carlon Brown, Luka Drca, and Marshall Henderson, but perhaps most important is their first round opponent - UNLV, who they have swept this year.


Names you need to know

• Roman Martinez, New Mexico: Darington Hobson is the star, but Martinez is probably the Lobos most clutch player. Anyone that has seen New Mexico play this season has likely seen Martinez knock down more than one big three. He's not the flashiest player, but his lefty stroke keeps the floor spread and affords guys like Gary and Hobson room to operate in the lane.


• Michael Loyd, BYU: Loyd plays behind Jimmer Fredette, which means that their aren't many minutes available for the sophomore. But his performance when minutes become available prove the kid of talent this kid has. In the four games that Fredette has been slowed due to illness, Loyd has averaged 15.3 ppg. Not a bad backup.
  


• Kawhi Leonard, SDSU: The Aztecs have the best front line in the conference, and Leonard is the best of the bunch. The 6'7" freshman slipped through the major conference cracks, and he has been tearing up the MWC. Leonard has 14 double-doubles on the season, and is as good around the rim as you are going to find.
  


• Ronnie Moss, TCU: The Horned Frogs struggled this season, finishing 13-18 and just 5-13 in the conference, but Moss was the bright spot. The league's fourth leading scorer and top assist man, Moss has shown the ability to take a game over. The only problem? There is not much else on this roster to get excited about.

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Mountain West Conference bubble breakdown

Last night, Charlotte beat A-10 leader Temple at home, New Mexico knocked off MWC leader BYU at the Pit, and Memphis hung on against Marshall a night after UAB slayed Tulsa in a battle of C-USA unbeatens.

What does that mean?

Simply put, the three best conferences outside the big six are as unpredictable as ever. Unpredictability in sports means excitement, and when you are dealing with conferences where 40% of the league has a real shot at winning the regular season title and/or earning a trip to the dance, you will rarely come across a more unpredictable situation.

Haven't had a chance to watch much A-10 hoops this season? Don't get the Mountain West's channel? Stopped caring about C-USA when Coach Cal left?

Don't worry. We're here to help you parse through it all. Be sure to check back in the next few days as we help you sort out the best leagues outside of the Big Six.


MOUNTAIN WEST

Standings (strictly teams that are still within reach of the bubble)

• 1. BYU 20-2, 5-1
• 2. New Mexico 19-3, 5-2
• 3. UNLV 17-4, 5-2
• 4. San Diego State 14-6, 3-3
  

Favorite: BYU

Led by the best player in the MWC, the Cougars have rolled to a 20-2 mark, having a 15 game winning streak snapped Wednesday night at New Mexico, a place where road losses have become perfectly acceptable. If you haven't seen Jimmer Fredette play, you're really missing out. Reminiscent of Steve Nash, Fredette isn't overly quick or athletic, but his has a great handle, is shifty with the ball, has a knack for the crafty finish around the rim, and has the stones to knock down a big shot. He's got a few scorers around him on the perimeter (Tyler Haws, Jackson Emery, Jonathon Tavernari) and capable big men on the interior (Chris Miles, Noah Hartsock, Brandon Davies). As good as Jimmer Fredette is, and as good as the MWC as a whole is, the talent surrounding BYU's all-american is what sets them apart from the rest of the pack.

How good is BYU?
(photo credit: Future of Fantasy Sports)

Having said that, its tough to judge the Cougars on a national scale as they don't exactly have a treasure trove of tournament caliber wins. Their 30 point win at Arizona isn't as impressive as it would have been five years ago. Beating Arizona State and UNLV at home are nice wins, but they are at home against teams that aren't guaranteed to be in the tournament. BYU is supposed to win those games.

I know the facts: the Cougars are rated 4th by Kenpom and 19th in the RPI; they've gone 9-1 in true road games and have played more games away from the Marriott Center (12) than they have at home; they won at UTEP and snapped SDSU's 14 game home court winning streak; their two losses are at two of the toughest places to play in the country (Utah State and New Mexico). There's no denying that this is a good team. But when having played the 101st toughest schedule and have beaten just two teams in the RPI top 50, I'm left wondering whether BYU is one of the best in the country, or just simply the best of the country's second tier teams.


And if they lose: New Mexico

The Lobos are lead by the uber-versatile Darington Hobson. Hobson, a 6'7" lefty combo forward, took an interesting path to New Mexico, but after landing there its become obvious he is a player. 22 games into the season, he's averaging 14.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 4.1 apg, and while he has struggled a bit of late (he's shooting just 35% over his last 10 games), one thing that is clear about Hobson is that he is a match-up nightmare. He's got an excellent handle, can create his own shot, is a solid three-point shooter with his feet set, and while he has a tendency to make a few head-scratching decisions, his 4.1 apg proves he is a capable playmaker.

New Mexico beat BYU on Wednesday despite just five points from Darington Hobson.
(photo credit: ESPN)

Like the Cougars, the Lobos have a solid supporting cast surrounding Hobson. Roman Martinez, another 6'6" lefty forward, can score and is a knock-down shooter, Dairese Gray is one of the more underrated point guards in the country (anyone that saw him put 25 on BYU Wednesday will agree), Phil McDonald is a capable scorer, and the Lobos have a couple of big bodies to throw in the mix as well.

New Mexico probably has the best non-conference resume, as they have gathered wins over Cal, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Dayton. The Lobos still have to play five of their nine league games on the road, including trips to BYU and UNLV (who beat them at the Pit), but if they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat, and pull out a win against the Cougars or the Rebels, New Mexico has a shot to win the regular season title.


Who's Dancing?:

• BYU: 20-2, 5-1, RPI: 19, Kenpom: 4, SOS: 101, vs. RPI top-50: 2-1, vs. RPI top-100: 7-2, Best wins: UNLV, @ SDSU, Bad losses: none
  
  Barring a collapse, the Cougars should be in. The question will be where they get seeded. Their computer numbers are great, and they don't have any bad losses (like I said, there is no shame in losing at Utah State). Assuming they go 9-1 down the stretch (they still have five road games, including UNLV, and get New Mexico and SDSU at home), I think the Cougars are destined for a spot in the 4-5 range. So long as they avoid Texas A&M, BYU should get a win this year.


• New Mexico: 19-3, 5-2, RPI: 12; Kenpom: 41; SOS: 37; vs. RPI top-50: 5-2; vs. RPI top-100: 6-2; Best wins: Cal, BYU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech; Bad losses: @ Oral Roberts
  
  Like BYU, the Lobos are all but a lock to get a bid. They've got quite a few impressive wins over power conference schools, and even picked off Louisiana Tech and Dayton earlier in the season. The Lobos have a good shot at winning the league, and if they do, don't be surprised to see them in the 4-5 range.
  


• UNLV: 17-4, 5-2; RPI: 35; Kenpom: 53; SOS: 77; vs. RPI top-50: 3-2; vs. RPI top-100: 6-3; Best wins: Louisville, @ New Mexico, SDSU; Bad losses: Utah
  
  If today was Selection Sunday, UNLV would probably be in the tournament. They wouldn't be one of the last few teams in, but they certainly would be in the group right before that. If I'm a Rebels fan, now is when I start getting worried. UNLV is good, but they don't quite have the talent level of New Mexico or BYU, especially now that Derrick Jasper is out with an MCL sprain. UNLV plays BYU, New Mexico, and at San Diego State in the span of a week in early February. If they can get a win against either BYU or UNM at home and take care of business against the five teams towards the bottom of the league, UNLV will almost assuredly get a bid with a 14-4 record in conference.
  


• San Diego State: 14-6, 3-3, RPI: 43, Kenpom: 65; SOS: 55; vs. RPI top-50: 1-3; vs. RPI top-100: 2-5; Best wins: New Mexico; Bad losses: @ Wyoming, @ Pacific
  
  SDSU is in dire straits, and may almost be at the point that they need to win out to get a bid. They're 5-5 on the road this season, including losses to Wyoming and Pacific. Their best road win: Utah, who is 158th in the RPI. They do own a win over New Mexico, which is good, but their only other top-RPI win came against Arizona. The good news is that the Aztecs get another chance to knock off New Mexico and BYU to help their resume. The bad news is they have to do it on the road. Barring a miraculous turnaround, the Aztecs are probably out.
  

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