No. 7: 2009-2010 Team Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels

2008-2009 Record: 34-4, 13-3 ACC (1st)

Key Losses: Tyler Hansbrough (20.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg), Ty Lawson (16.6 ppg, 5.6 apg), Wayne Ellington (15.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Danny Green (13.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg)

Key Returners: Deon Thompson (10.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Ed Davis (6.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg)

Newcomers: David Wear, Travis Wear, Leslie McDonald, John Henson, Dexter Strickland

Ed Davis has the potential to be a star this season.
(photo credit: Zimbio)

Can any team in the country say they lost more talent than the Tar Heels did? Not only are they losing the players, but in Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, they lost the guys that gave them their identity. That said, North Carolina brings in an absolutely loaded recruiting class, which combined with the stud freshman Roy Williams brought into the program last season, give him plenty of potential to work with.

Not to put too much pressure on him, but the key to this team's season is going to be sophomore point guard Larry Drew. Ty Lawson was the engine that made UNC go last year. His ability to push the ball in transition and break down a defender in the half court is a major reason that the Heels were able to take advantage of the talent they had on the offensive end of the floor. Can Drew do that same? He isn't as quick as Lawson (few are), but he has shown some ability to get into the paint and find an open man. His three point shot is about where Lawson's was at this point in his career as well - below average. Drew has a lot to prove this season, and his ability to run this team will be instrumental in how good the Heels end up being.

Another big change is going to be UNC's shooting ability. Last year, guys like Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Bobby Frasor were very good shooters. This season, the UNC wings are going to be far from great from the perimeter. Marcus Ginyard, who is back from the injury that forced him to redshirt last season, is an excellent player. He will defend, he will attack the rim, he will rebound, but he isn't an explosive offensive talent like an Ellington, or even a Green. The same can be said for junior Will Graves, who butted heads a bit with Williams last season.

As with every position on the court, UNC is going to rely heavily on their young guys on the wings. Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald are both highly touted freshman joining the program. Strickland is a combo guard. His size and athleticism make him dangerous on the wing, as he excels when he is able to get out in transition or when he is attacking the basket. He will be able to slide over and play some point as well. An improved shooter during his senior season, Strickland is still a ways from being considered a real threat from deep. McDonald is not quite the slasher that Strickland is, but he may be a better shooter (he is probably the Heels best shooter on the perimeter). One of the comparisons I have been seeing a lot of is that McDonald is Marcus Ginyard with a better jumper. Probably not a starter, but he is a guy that will provide a lot of good minutes for the Heels.

Williams has said that 6'10" freshman John Henson is going to see a lot of minutes on the perimeter. Henson could be an x-factor for UNC. He is a play maker that always seems to be around the ball - whether it is making a backdoor pass for a lay-up, blocking a shot, grabbing a rebound and going coast-to-coast. The consensus seems to be that Henson is a 6'10" combo forward with a 7'1" wing span and the perimeter skills of a guard. If he develops this season, Henson has the chance to be a weapon in UNC's full court attack.

The Heels inside play has a bunch of question marks as well. Back are Deon Thompson and Ed Davis. Davis has the potential to be a game-changing big man. He is long, athletic, and aggressive on the boards. Davis also provides the Heels with a shot blocking presence they have not had in a long time. His biggest problem right now is that he has not proven the ability to score with his back to the basket. That said, a breakout season, a la Cole Aldrich, out of Davis has been predicted by many. Thompson is a known commodity. He doesn't really do anything great, but he is a solid all-around post. He is a decent scorer, either backing his man down or facing him up. He'll grab some rebounds. He'll play some decent post defense. With the youth on the Heels front line, Williams is going to count on Thompson for leadership and consistency.

The other three guys up front will be Tyler Zeller and David and Travis Wear. Zeller had a bit of a disappointing freshman season, as a broken wrist suffered in the season's second game kept him out for the bulk of the season. But Zeller has talent. He is a legitimate seven footer, but his strength on the offensive end of the court is his perimeter game. He can shoot it (and may actually be the best shooter on the roster) and he can put the ball on the floor and go by an opposing center. According to reports, Zeller has been playing with the first team over Davis in early season practices.

The 6'9" Wear twins are similar to Zeller. The two are essentially the same player, with David being better offensively and Travis better defensively. Both are excellent with the ball in their hands, shooting the ball from the perimeter and using the bounce to get to the basket. The problem is that neither are good with their back to the basket.

In fact, none of the UNC bigs are that good with their back to the basket, which is why there may be a change to the UNC offense this season. Last year, the Heels looked inside to Hansbrough quite a bit, as Pyscho T was able to score with two and three defenders draped over him in the post. No one on the UNC roster can play like that this year. With how good most of the UNC bigs are facing up with the ball in their hands, Roy will look run even more of a spread attack. The two bigs will operate at the high post a lot, allowing more space for guys to slash to the rim because players like the Wears, Thompson, Zeller, and even Henson are a threat from 17 feet.

Outlook: UNC is going to be raw this season, as they have a ton of youth and inexperience on the roster. Even senior leader Marcus Ginyard is coming off of a season where he played just three games. The Heels are still going to run, but their secondary break is going to be a bit different. Instead of dumping the ball in to Hansbrough and allowing him to score or kick out to a shooter, the Heels are going to look to get their touches in the paint via penetration from the wings. An area where UNC should be better this season is defensively. Davis, Henson, and Zeller are all capable shot blockers, and guys like Strickland, McDonald, Ginyard, and Drew are defensive improvements on the perimeter. In short, UNC has the talent to be a Final Four team, but whether or not these kids develop into a group that can make it that far remains to be seen.
Continue reading...

Marcus Ginyard and Will Graves are out for the year

UNC's 108-91 win over Maryland on Wednesday overshadowed a couple pretty important items. First, Roy Williams has decided to sit Marcus Ginyard for the rest of the season, instead seeking a medical red-shirt so the senior swingman can play a full season in 2009-10. UNC loses even more back court depth as sophomore guard will Graves as been suspended for the rest of the season for failing to "maintain the standards we expect of a Carolina basketball player."

These two guys missing the rest of the year only reinforces the fact that this is not the same UNC team that everyone was handing the title to in the preseason.

Why did everyone love them? Because they were a #1 seed and Final Four team returning all five starters while adding three Mickey D's all-americans into the mix. Now, one of those starters and one of those rooks (Tyler Zeller broke his wrist in the second game of the year) are done for the season. Combine that with the suspension of Graves and the injury-slowed season Bobby Frasor is having, and the Heels look like a much different team than the one that was the first consensus #1 in the preseason polls.

The biggest issue for this team right now is depth. Originally considered a strength, the Heels now go just eight deep, which could be problematic for a team that likes to get out and run as much as UNC does.

That issue is magnified when you take into consideration two factors. For one, Frasor has not been good this year, especially of late. On the season he is shooting 24% from three, and he has hit (I kid you not) one three in ACC play. Larry Drew has been pretty good (albeit turnover prone - he averages 1.4 in 11 mpg, where Ty Lawson averages 1.8 in 28 mpg), but the issue with him is that he plays the same position as Lawson. Neither is all that effective off the ball. Lawson is a bit better because he can shoot this year, but why would you want him playing off the ball when he is the best in the country at what he does.

So that leaves one bench guy, Ed Davis, that has been effective this season. That is not good for a team whose entire philosophy is based on running, running, and running. The Heels have proven that they are not a team that is going to beat you in the half court. With a limited rotation and a smaller number of guys to cycle through, it is going to be that much harder for UNC to

But should the loss of these two guys really have that big of an impact? Ginyard has logged a grand total of 37 minutes this season and scored all of four points. Graves was getting playing time (11.2 mpg), but he wasn't exactly a game changer. He averaged 4.0 ppg, but was shooting 27.8% from three, had a 1:1.5 a/to ratio, and was not what you would call a lock down defender.

The Heels problems run deeper than that. For one thing, they still don't play enough perimeter defense (Ginyard could have helped there). They also are having big problems on the interior. Deon Thompson, who looked so good early in the season, is averaging just 7.4 ppg in ACC play. Why? Both he and Hansbrough are back-to-the-basket scorers that need space, and time, to make thier moves. If things are clogged in the paint, and there are only going to be so many post touches, who do you think is getting them? The reigning player of the year, perhaps?

All that said, we are still talking about a team that is 20-2 and ranked in the top 5 in the country. So while they haven't quite lived up to the ridiculous expectations put on them in the preseason, they are still without a doubt a Final Four and national title contender. Continue reading...

Marcus Ginyard Injured

Marcus Ginyard underwent surgery on a stress fracture in his left foot today, meaning he will be out about eight weeks. Apparently, Ginyard played much of last season in pain, even being forced to wear a boot at times (according to the AP, team officials called the injury a "stress reaction"). In August, he sprained his left ankle, which aggravated the foot injury. In a statement, coach Roy Williams said

You hate this for Marcus because he has worked so hard to get ready for his senior season, but he decided it was better to have the surgery now and be ready sometime in December than risk a more substantial injury that would knock him out of action later in the season.

If the injury is really an eight week thing, then Ginyard could be back by the Michigan State game in the ACC/Big Ten challenge on December 3rd, and possibly the Maui Invitational at the end of November. Hopefully (for Tar Heel fans) Ginyard will be back to 100% by the time the ACC season rolls around in January. While UNC is talented enough to overcome the loss of Ginyard for a time, it will still hurt because he is probably the Heels best perimeter defender, and if you saw them play last year you know that they can ill afford to lose anyone that will actually play some defense. Continue reading...