The other side: maybe Dogus Balbay's injury isn't actually a blessing in disguise

By now, you've surely heard that the injury that Texas point guard Dogus Balbay suffered of Saturday afternoon was a torn acl and will miss the rest of the season.

The general consensus seems to be that this injury could actually be a blessing in disguise for the Longhorns. Balbay is an excellent defender, the Longhorn's leader in assists, and a vocal leader. But where Texas has struggled of late hasn't been on the defensive end; its been creating offense. Balbay, who is shooting a robust 10% from three this season, is a liability at that end of the floor. So much so that teams don't even bother guarding him outside of 15 feet.

You knew the injury was bad when Balbay went down on Saturday.
(photo credit: RTC)

With Balbay out of the lineup, it will provide more minutes for more offensive-minded players like J'Covan Brown and Jai Lucas, while also allowing Justin Mason more minutes at the point.

But could the general consensus be wrong here?

Could the loss of Balbay actually add injury to insult as the Longhorns look to get back on track after losing six of their last ten games?

Its true that J'Covan Brown is the most talented offensive player the Longhorns have at the point. But even after Balbay went down with the injury five minutes into the game against Texas Tech on Saturday, Brown played just five minutes as Justin Mason logged a season high 38. Could there be a reason for Brown being in Rick Barnes' doghouse? Take a look at this quote from the Austin Statesmen where Barnes was asked how Brown improve his standing in the eyes of his coach:

One word: consistency. In all areas of the game. That's what we've looked for all year. People wonder why we go back and forth. It's consistency. It's every day. It's preparation. It's the details. It's accountability. He knows what we need from him. He needs to prepare every day, not just when it's convenient. It's not just him. People need to understand what their roles are.

Not exactly glowing praise for a guy that most expect to take over the starting point guard role.

The issue with Brown isn't the ability to score. Anyone that watched him go for 28 points, the majority of which came in the last eight minutes, against Kansas would agree. With Brown, the issue is decison making. Will he improve his shot selection? Can he improve on an assist to turnover ratio that is almost 1:1 (to be fair, he has been better in Big XII play)? Does he understand how to facilitate an offense?

You see, part of the reason that Texas needs another scorer on the perimeter is that it will open up space for the Longhorn's big front line to operate in the paint. But Brown is a scoring point guard and a freshman who sat out the two years prior to this season. He isn't exactly programmed to run an offense just yet.

What about Jai Lucas? He has great pedigree - the son of John Lucas and the brother of former Oklahoma State standout John Lucas III. But Jai has scored all of 11 points in Big XII play, and neither he nor Brown are as good on the defensive end as Balbay.

The third option is Justin Mason. He's an excellent defender and a senior. But he also had the opportunity to run the point last season alongside AJ Abrams, and was not as effective as Barnes would have liked.

The bottom line is that increased, consistent minutes for Brown and Lucas at the point may result in increased production from the two. But it also should be safe to assume that Rick Barnes knew his team's weakness was on the offensive end, and he still used Balbay as the starter, playing him the most consistent minutes.

Either way, the only thing I really hope for in the situation is a quick and speedy recovery for Balbay. He's a tough kid that plays with a lot of heart.
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No. 3: 2009-2010 Team Preview: Texas Longhorns

2008-2009 Record: 23-12, 9-7 Big XII (t-4th)

Key Losses: AJ Abrams (16.6 ppg, 40% 3's), Connor Atchley (4.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

Key Returners: Damion James (15.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg), Dexter Pittman (10.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Gary Johnson (10.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Justin Mason (6.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.0 apg)

Newcomers: Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton, Shawn Williams, J'Covan Brown

Damion James' versatility will be a major factor in the Longhorn's success this season.

The last three season's, Texas has essentially ridden the coattails of their star. From Kevin Durant, to DJ Augustin, to AJ Abrams, the offense that Rick Barnes has run during that span has not been much more than a variety of clearouts or one-on-one opportunities. Lacking a great go-to scorer this year, Texas is going to look quite a bit different this year.

For starters, they are going to be big. Really big. It will start with 6'10", 290 lb Dexter Pittman. Pittman has the talent to be an absolute monster in this league. Arguably the strongest player in the league, Pittman is very good at establishing position in the post. When he gets the ball within seven feet, Pittman has a soft touch, which combined with his nimble feet (especially when you consider his size) make him an excellent low block scorer. Pittman's problem is, and has always been, his endurance. He was only able to log 17 mpg last season, which is not a good thing when you consider Pittman was able to average double figures in those limited minutes. If he can get into better shape (which he reportedly has been), not only will it help improve his athleticism and explosiveness but it will allow him to spend more time on the court.

Pittman, as good as he can be, won't be the best front court player for the Longhorns. That will be Damion James. For the numbers James has put up throughout his three years in Austin, he really doesn't get the national credit he deserves. The reason is probably because James has never really developed into much more than a role player, albeit an extremely good one. James is as good of an athlete as you are going to find. A strong 6'8", James is one of the better rebounders in the country despite being more of a combo forward than true power forward. Offensively, James is a threat to knock down a three, but he is most effective when putting his athleticism to work; be it cutting to the basket or attacking the offensive glass. Texas does not really have anyone that is going to be a real threat in the half court this season. If James can develop into a guy that can create his own shot, it will make Texas just that much better.

Gary Johnson is another guy that has not really received much attention during his time at Texas. Despite being just 6'6", Johnson is a load to handle inside. He is an athletic and strong kid with energy to burn, but he also added a decent 12-15 foot jumper to his repertoire last season. Johnson will likely see some time as a starter this season.

Not only will Texas be big this season, they will be deep. Three more guys will see time in the front court. Alexis Wangmene, a 6'7" sophomore, will be back after suffering a season ending knee injury last year. Wangmene is long and fairly athletic, but he is still quite raw and needs to develop a better feel for the game. Clint Chapman, a 6'10" junior, showed some signs of being an impact player last season. He is athletic, has a great motor, and plays with a lot of energy, but he needs to improve his decision making. Matt Hill is a 6'10" junior that had a promising start to his career, but has battled injuries and may struggle to really crack the rotation.

The Longhorns are going to be just as deep in the back court, but the key this season is going to be at the point. Last season, Texas had issues as no one ever emerged as a point guard capable of leading the team. Justin Mason was probably their best option last year, but he is not a point guard. He is their best perimeter defender, an excellent rebounder, and a capable play maker from the wing, he just simply never seemed to feel comfortable in the point guard role. Being able to drive and draw a defender is a a far cry from the ability to run a team. Simply put, he is most effective playing off the ball.

This season, there will be four guys competing for minutes at the point. The best of the bunch may be freshman J'Covan Brown. Brown was supposed to join Texas last season, but he had trouble gaining eligibility and ended up sitting the year out. The reason Brown might be the Longhorns best option is that is he dynamic with the ball. He can score and he can create, and on a team that will be lacking offensive explosiveness, that will be a valuable trait. Jai Lucas, a transfer from Florida who will be eligible for the second semester, is probably their second best option. The son of John Lucas and brother of Oklahoma State's John Lucas III, Jai is much less of a pure scorer than Brown is expected to be, but he may be a better true point guard.

Varez Ward and Dogus Balbay were the two guys that handled the point for Texas down the stretch last season. Ward is a solid player - pretty good at setting up the offense - but he is not a great scorer or shooter and may end up being the guy lost in the shuffle. Balbay, on the other hand, can create and get to the rim, where he will finish with reckless abandon, but he is such a bad shooter that teams defended him inside the foul line when he had the ball at the top of the key.

Three freshmen will be thrown into the mix in the back court. Avery Bradley looks to be the best of the three. Bradley has drawn praise from everyone that has seen him play for his efforts on the defensive end. When he and Mason share the back court, opposing guards are going to have a rough go of it. Offensively, he is a terrific athlete that excels when playing in the open floor and slashing to the rim. If he can add a consistent three point shot, forcing defenders to respect his range, he could end up being one of the best players in the country by the time he leaves Texas.

Jordan Hamilton and Shawn Williams are both tall (6'7") and talented wings. Williams is still basically just an athlete, although he has gotten recognition for his perimeter shooting ability. Hamilton, on the other hand, could be a very important piece for Barnes. A gifted scorer, he has the potential to be unstoppable offensively. He is quick, athletic, a good shooter, and has a feel for being able to score. Like I said with Brown, Texas lacks explosiveness offensively, and having a guy like Hamilton that can get his own shot will be valuable.

Outlook: Texas is going to be big, deep, and tough this season, especially on the defensive end. Where they are going to run into issues are on the offensive end. Is someone going to step up and take control of the point guard spot? Will guys like James, Hamilton, and Brown be able to create their own shots in the half court? Who is going to be the proverbial zone-buster - will there be enough perimeter shooting to force teams to come out of a zone? If Barnes can find a suitable answer to those questions, Texas will have the horses to make a run at not just the Big XII title, but a national championship.
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