Dancing with the Stars: Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

Conference: Southland

Record: 19-13, 9-7

Rankings: 219 (KenPom), 224 (Sagarin), 202 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 16

Best Players: Devin Gibson (17.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.7 spg), Jeromie Hill (13.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg)

Big Wins, Bad Losses: The roadrunners best win was a late November home game against San Jose State, who they beat by nine. Other than that, They have no other "big" wins, except maybe all the Southland conference games. Their worst lost was to Samford (#311) at home. That loss was the first of five consecutive defeats for UTSA.

Tendencies: It's a shame you probably haven't heard of Devin Gibson, because the kid can flat-out ball. He hasn't scored less than 15 points in a game since January 8th and is tied for the lead in the NCAA with two triple-doubles. He nearly had back-to-back triple doubles in the Southland Tournament but came up four assists shy. Gibson isn't just a scorer, as evidence by his loaded stat-sheet. The Roadrunners have two other players who can score (Jeromie Hill and Melvin Johnson) but neither of them, nor Gibson, shoot at a high percentage. On top of that, UTSA is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country.

How They Got There: Don't be fooled by their No. 7-seed in the Southland Conference tournament, because they were only two games out of first place. They beat the top three teams in the conference en route to their fourth tournament title.

Outlook: The most-talented team the Roadrunners have faced all season was Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys won't be making the tournament. Therefore any team UTSA faces is going to be hands-down the best team they've seen all year. The Roadrunners probably won't win a single game, which is a shame, because "the roadrunner" is such an awesome school mascot.
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Dancing with the Stars: Boston Terriers

Conference: America East

Record: 21-13, 12-4

Rankings: 170 (KenPom), 168 (Sagarin), 132 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 16

Best Players: John Holland (19.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.4 spg), Darryl Partin (14.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.5 apg), Jake O'Brien (10.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg)

Big Wins, Bad Losses: To be honest, the Terriers don't have any good wins. If you really need an answer, here you go: they have a neutral court win over George Washington and Nevada, and beat Vermont twice. That's about it. The Terriers do have some bad losses, including a four point loss to UMBC, the #334-ranked team in the country. They also lost to Hartford (#298), New Hampshire (#292) and a 34-point loss to Kentucky.

Tendencies: The Terriers have John Holland, a 2,000-point scorer and the reigning Conference Player of the Year and Tournament MVP. Holland has the ability to score from anywhere inside the arc, and can score against superior talent. But outside of that Boston is pretty inept on offense. they are in the bottom 25% in field goal percentage and assists and they play in one of the country's weaker conferences.

How They Got There: The Terriers were the preseason favorites to win the conference despite bringing in essentially an entire new team to surround Holland. They had a rough time in non-conference play, losing nine of 14 games, although four of those came against tournament-bound teams. The Terriers carried their sub-par play into the conference season, going 5-4 in the month of January. But since the end of January, the Terriers have not lost a game, stringing together 11 wins in a row, including three tournament games.

Outlook: The Terriers have been to the NCAA tournament six times and have a 2-6 record overall. Unfortunately, both of their wins came in 1959, and they haven't been to the tournament since 2002, when they lost to Cincinnati in the first round by 38 points. Likely to be a #16-seed, the outlook does not appear to be good, and by that I mean they are going to lose in the first round, by a lot.
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Dancing with the Stars: Akron Zips

Conference: Mid-American Conference

Record: 23-12, 9-7

Rankings: 123 (KenPom), 134 (Sagarin), 117 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 15/16

Best Players: Nikola Cvetinovic (12.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.1 apg), Brett McClanahan (10.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.5 apg), Zeke Marshall (8.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 53% FG)

Big Wins, Bad Losses: Akron's best non-conference win was against Creighton on BracketBusters Saturday when they beat the Bluejays by seven at home. The Zips had just two top 100 wins, both of which came against Kent State, one of them in the league's title game. It wasn't for a lack of trying -- they lost to Dayton, Cleveland State, Miami FL, Temple, and Minnesota.

Tendencies: The Zips biggest tendency this season? Underachieving. Akron was a favorite to win the conference this season, but they struggled mightily away from home and lost some games they probably could have won. The strength of this team is in the front court with Nikola Cvetinovic, Zeke Marshall, and Brett McKnight who combined to win the conference tournament title game with two free throws (McKnight) and a block (Marshall) at the other end.

How They Got There: The Zips tend to play a lot better at home than they do on the road. Akron was 14-2 at home this season but just 4-9 on the road. Luckily for the Zips, the conference tournament was played less than hour from campus, which is probably why the No. 6 Zips won four games in four days.

Outlook: Akron has talent. They played teams tough this year, only getting blown out by Temple in the non-conference. They have some size inside as well. They have the talent to spring an upset if they get the right matchup. The problem? They had such a disappointing regular season that they'll end up playing a team they can't beat.
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Dancing with the Stars: Memphis

For our capsules for every auto-bid, click here.

Conference: Conference USA

Record: 25-9, 10-6

Rankings: 92 (KenPom), 72 (Sagarin), 81 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 10/11

Best Players: Will Barton (12.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.8 apg), Joe Jackson (9.6 ppg, 3.0apg), Tarik Black (9.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: Memphis actually has 13 top 100 wins, but the only top 100 wins outside of their league have been Gonzaga and Miami FL. The Tigers also have a couple of ugly losses -- SMU, East Carolina, Rice -- which, combined with their close wins against mediocre competition, throws into question just how good this team really is.

Tendencies: Memphis is a team with a lot of young, athletic players, and they play like it. They are pretty good defensively, ranking 60th in the country in defensive efficiency, and a lot is a result of their ability to make plays on the defensive end of the floor. They block shots and they creates steals, but they also gamble and expose their defense. Offensively, this team has battled selfishness problems. As talented as these youngsters are, they don't really understand team play just yet. There is a lot of 1-on-1 on that end and not enough ball movement or three point shooting.

How They Got There: Memphis struggled during non-conference play, allowing teams like Northwestern State, Arkansas State, and Texas A&M-CC to hang around much longer than they should. They jumped out to a 5-1 started in C-USA play, but finished the year just 5-5, losing three of their last five games. As the four seed in the tournament, the Tigers beat Southern Miss in the first round. They beat East Carolina (who made their path infinitely easier by upsetting one seed UAB) before riding the coattails of Joe Jackson to the league's automatic bid.

Outlook: Honestly? I don't have an answer. Memphis has the talent on their roster to be able to make if out of the first weekend. Do I think they will? No. There is something missing with this team. They are too inconsistent from game to game and possession to possession.
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Dancing with the Stars: Bucknell Bison

For our capsules for every auto-bid, click here.

Conference: Patriot

Record: 25-8, 13-1

Rankings: 90 (KenPom), 87 (Sagarin), 81 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 14/13. More than likely to be a 14, but with some help from bid-theives, they could get a 13 seed

Best Players: Mike Muscala (14.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.1 bpg), Bryson Johnson (11.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 46% 3PT), Darryl Shazier (8.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.5 spg)

Big Wins, Bad Losses: The Bison have a descent strength-of-schedule for a low-major school. They have a win over America East champions Boston, a road-win over Richmond and won all but one of their conference games. The one conference loss was their worst loss of the season, losing at home to Army by 20 points. They also had a three-game losing streak in which they lost to Princeton, James Madison and Wagner.

Tendencies: Bucknell is very good at creating points. They are in the top-50 in assists and are above the NCAA average for offensive efficiency. The Bison's problem is that they do not have a lot of size. Mike Muscala, the Patriot League Player of the Year and Tournament MVP, is about the team's only source of rebounds. Bucknell is ranked 215th in overall rebounding, and if they can't make their shots, could get outworked on the glass against a bigger, more physical team.

How They Got There: The Bison were the preseason favorites to win the conference. They were in first place for every week and only lost one league game. In fact, they have only lost one game since Christmas and are currently riding a ten game win streak. In their last five games, they have been winning by an average margin of 14.6 points.

Outlook: This program does have NCAA tournament success, best known was their stunning upset of No. 3 Kansas in 2005. But the Bison won a first round game in 2006 as well, when they defeated No. 8 Arkansas. Not much is the same about this current Bucknell team. The Bison do have a player talented enough to take over (Muscala) and they are an efficient team in terms of shooting percentages. A first round upset victory is not out of the realm of possibility, depending on the matchup. A trip to the Sweet Sixteen however, probably is.

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Dancing with the Stars: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Conference: West Coast Conference

Record: 24-9, 11-3

Rankings: 32 (KenPom), 37 (Sagarin), 54 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 9/10, I've seen them listed as a No. 13-seed, a No. 10-seed is much more realistic.

Best Players: Steven Gray (13.8 ppg, 3.9 apg), Robert Sacre (12.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Elias Harris (12.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg)

Big Wins, Bad Losses: The early part of their season, both non-conference and WCC play is where the Zags suffered their worst losses. The worst of the bunch was a 22-point defeat at the hands of Washington State after losing to Illinois 61-73 two days before. In WCC play, they had back-to-back losses against Santa Clara and San Francisco. The Zags don't have too many great wins, but they do hold victories over Marquette, Baylor, and Xavier, plus two against St. Mary's.

Tendencies: The Zags have had some identity issues all year. Their point guard play has been shaky at times. Steven Gray isn't a true point guard, and Demtri Goodson is not reliable at all. Luckily, David Stockton and Marquise Carter have been productive in the increased minutes they have gotten down the stretch. Also, the Zags front court is too reliant on Elias Harris and Robert Sacre, both of whom are not exactly playing up to pre-season expectations. That being said, this team relies heavily on it's defense this season, and they were able to control the tempo of the games late in the season because of their defensive pressure.

How They Got There: When you look back at their schedule, it doesn't really look that bad. They lost five of seven during non-conference play, but those losses were to teams like San Diego State, Kansas State and Notre Dame. The were able to go on a nine-game win streak that carried into WCC-play, before dropping three straight, two against sub-par teams San Francisco and Santa Clara. But following a mid-season, non-conference loss to Memphis, the Zags rallied off another nine-game win streak, and head into March Madness with momentum.

Outlook: This isn't your older brother's Gonzaga squad, but they certainly won't be shocking the world if they make it two or three games deep in March. Their coach is a guy who has seen it all, and they have a few players with NCAA tournament experience. Provided they get a descent first round match-up, most likely against a No. 7-seed, it very possible to see this team pick up a tournament win. More than one win could be a stretch, however.
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Dancing with the Stars: Long Island Blackbirds

Conference: NEC

Record: 27-5, 16-2

Rankings: 117 (Kenpom), 77 (RPI), 95 (Sagarin)

Potential Seed: 15/16

Best Players: Julian Boyd (12.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg), Jamal Olaseware (12.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Jason Brickman (6.3 ppg, 5.4 apg, 1.9 t/o's)

Big Wins, Bad Losses: Long Island doesn't have anything on their resume that would qualify as a big win. They played just three top 100 teams (St. Peter's, Iona, Northwestern) and lost to all three. Their best wins of the season came against Robert Morris. That said, they only have one loss outside the top 101 -- St. Francis PA.

Tendencies: Run, run, run. If you like uptempo, exciting, full court basketball, LIU is the team for you. They are the fourth fastest team in the country, and, amazingly enough, that is not the result of the Blackbirds forcing a lot of turnovers. They just like the fast break and shoot quickly, attacking the offensive glass as hard as any team in the country. While this opens them up for giving up offensive rebounds, Long Island makes up for it by keeping their opponents from getting to the foul line and defending the three point line. This truly is a team, as well. They've had 11 different players reach double figures this season, seven guys averages at least 20 mpg and an eighth averages 17.4 mpg while no one plays more than 25.1 mpg, and each of those eight players averages between 6.3 ppg and 12.9 ppg.

How They Got There: LIU went 27-5 on the season, so there really isn't much to say. They slipped up a couple times in the non-conference portion of their schedule when they took teams lightly, but their 27 wins and 16-2 record speaks for itself. In the NEC Tournament final, they were taken to overtime by Robert Morris but were able to hold on in front of a raucous crowd.

Outlook: It will be tough for LIU to win a game in the tournament simply because they are going to be playing one of the best teams in the country. I like this team, I like their weapons, and I like their style of play. I don't think they can beat a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, but they'll put a scare into someone.
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Dancing with the Star: Northern Colorado

Conference: Big Sky

Record: 21-10, 13-3

Rankings: 121 (Kenpom), 99 (RPI), 122 (Sagarin)

Potential Seed: 15

Best Players: Devon Beitzel (21.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.5 spg), Neal Kingman (10.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Elliott Lloyd (7.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.3 apg)

Big Wins, Bad Losses: The bears don't have a single win over a team in the RPI 100. In fact, they only played three games against teams in the RPI 100, and lost by an average of 15 points. Their worst defeat was a 78-75 loss at Lousiana-Monroe, the 328th-ranked team in the country. Their best win was an 18-point win over Montana during Big Sky regular season play.

Tendencies: The Bears like to shoot and they like to score. Unfortunately, most of their scoring came against low-major competition. But regardless of who the opponent is, one thing is for certain: Devon Beitzil will get buckets. The senior guard has scored more 20 or more points in 20 games this season, including the last nine games in a row. He has been held to under ten points just twice, against Arizona (2) and Weber State (5).

How They Got There: The Bears won their first seven conference games in a row before suffering back-to-back losses. Since the final day in January, the Bears have won 10 of 11, including the Big Sky Championship.

Outlook: This is the program's first tournament bid in school history, so just being part of March Madness is special. The Bears will more than likely have to play a #2-seed, so the odds are not in their favor to get past the first round. But with a player like Beitzel and in a setting like March Madness, anything could happen. Think Ben Woodside and North Dakota State from 2009. Continue reading...

Dancing with the Stars: Butler Bulldogs

Conference: Horizon

Record: 23-9, 13-5

Rankings: 54 (Kenpom), 34 (RPI), 46 (Sagarin)

Potential Seed: 10/11

Best Players: Matt Howard (16.7 ppg, 7.8rpg, Shelvin Mack (15.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.6 apg), Andrew Smith (8.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 63% FG)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: Butler's bad losses probably out-weight their good wins. They lost to Evansville, Youngstown State, and twice to Milwaukee, one of which was a 24-point drubbing. However, they do have neutral court wins over Florida State and Washington State after whiffing on their marquee games in the non-conference, and Milwaukee on the Panther's home court in the Horizon League finals.

Tendencies: The Bulldogs aren't the biggest team, and they certainly aren't the fastest team either, but they are tough, hard-nosed team who won't won't beat themselves. They are not the same team as the one that made the finals last season simply because they are not as tough defensively. We went in depth into Butler's defensive issues earlier in the season, so we will just direct you there.

How They Got There: Butler was one of the most-hyped teams coming into the season, and rightfully so. They returned much of the roster from a team that was national runner up. But the Bulldogs floundered against top-tier competition during their non-conference portion of the season. During Horizon League play, the Bulldogs had an ugly three-game losing streak in which they lost to Milwaukee, Valparaiso and Youngstown State, all by less than two points. But since the loss to Youngstown State, Butler has been rolling, having won nine in a row, including back-to-back victories over the top two teams in the league.

Outlook This is the Bulldogs fifth straight NCAA tournament birth and 10th in 15 years. There is something to be said for their experience with guys like Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack leading the way. They could do well in a favorable bracket against a team that fell into the six or seven spot, but anything more than a second round win would have to be considered a stretch. As they did earlier in the season, this team will struggle against teams with size and athleticism.
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Dancing with the Stars: Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans

Conference: Sun Belt

Record: 19-16, 7-9

Rankings: 210 (Kenpom), 200 (RPI), 209 (Sagarin)

Potential Seed: 16/Play-in

Best Players: Solomon Bozeman (16.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.7 apg), Alex Garcia-Mendoza (8.6 ppg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: There isn't a lot of pretty on the roster of a team that finished fifth in their division of the Sun Belt. They have a win over Tulsa, but they also lost by 26 to Oral Roberts, by 34 to Missouri State, by 15 to Akron, etc.

Tendencies: Frankly, there isn't much that UALR does well. That's generally the case when you are a team buried at the bottom of the Sun Belt. Their best offense, generally speaking, is to give the ball to Bozeman and get out of the way. He's an excellent three point shooter and really excels at getting to the free throw line.

How They Got There: Not the way you typically expect. The Trojans lost three in a row and four of their last five games in the regular season. But they they got hot at the right time. Well, Bozeman did, at least. He averaged 22.0 ppg as UALR ran through the Sun Belt Tournament. In the finals against North Texas, he capped a seven point comeback in the final 90 seconds by hitting a tough, step-back three:



Outlook: The Trojans had a story book run through the Sun Belt tournament. They made a crazy comeback in the finals and won on a game-winning jumper with 1.5 seconds left. Enjoy it, because they won't be winning a game in the NCAA Tournament.
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Dancing with the Stars: Oakland Grizzlies

Conference: Summit

Record: 25-9, 17-1

Rankings: 69 (Kenpom), 58 (RPI), 58 (Sagarin)

Potential Seed: 12/13

Best Players: Keith Benson (18.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 3.6 bpg), Reggie Hamilton (17.4 ppg, 5.4 apg), Will Hudson (12.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: Oakland did knock off Tennessee on the road this season, coming from behind to knock off the Vols 89-82 on the strength of a terrific performance by Larry Wright. That was it for the Grizzlies in terms of impressive wins, as they whiffed in the rest of their games against high-major competition.

Tendencies: Oakland wins because they are terrific on the offensive end of the floor. Of the nine players on their roster that play, only two have an offensive rating below 110, which is why they are the 15th most efficient team in the country on the offensive end of the floor. Keith Benson is a potential first round pick in the paint, but he's far from the only weapon this team has. Hamilton is a terrific creator, Hudson is a blue collar four man that hits the glass, Wright is capable of taking a game over, and they have a couple of shooters that can space the floor. This team is legit.

How They Got There: As I said earlier, Oakland played a number of high-major opponents, but they were only able to breakthrough against Tennessee. In Summit League play, the Grizzlies were incredible, losing one game, when Keith Benson managed just 18 minutes due to foul trouble.

Outlook: Oakland will probably get a fairly good seed for a Summit League team. Depending on how things shake out in the major conference tournaments, the Grizzlies will probably end up somewhere in the 12 or 13 range. I wouldn't want to be the four or five seed forced to play them in the first round.
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Dancing with the Stars: St. Peter's Pecocks

Conference: MAAC

Record: 20-13, 11-7

Rankings: 111 (Kenpom), 95 (RPI), 124 (Sagarin)

Potential Seed: 16/play-in game

Best Players: Wesley Jenkins (12.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Jeron Belin (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Nick Leon (10.6 ppg, 3.1 apg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: The Peacocks actually own wins over a couple of potential NCAA Tournament teams in Alabama and Long Island. But as the fourth place team in one of the country's weakest conferences, it shouldn't be a surprise that some of their 13 losses are pretty ugly.

Tendencies: Defense, defense, defense. There really is much else to say about the Peacocks. They are 21st in the county in defensive efficiency, and 274th in offensive efficiency. They aren't great at forcing turnovers, they aren't great on the defensive glass, but they are second in the country in defensive effective field goal percentage. For the non-stat heads, that means that its damn near impossible to get a good shot against St. Peter's.

How They Got There: St. Peter's lost three of their last five games of the season, ending up as the No. 4 seed in the tournament. But they had arguably the most impressive half of Championship Week when they took a 40-15 lead on MAAC champ Fairfield at the half. The Peacocks backed that up with another impressive win over Iona, the No. 2 seed.

Outlook: Enjoy the ride, Peacock fans. It wont last long.
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Dancing with the Stars: Wofford Terriers

Conference: Southern

Record: 21-12, 14-4

Rankings: 87 (Kenpom), 107 (RPI), 96 (Sagarin)

Potential Seed: 14/15

Best Players: Noah Dahlman (20.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Cameron Rundles (14.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Jamar Diggs (12.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.2 apg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: Wofford played a tough schedule, losing games to the likes of Clemson, Minnesota, South Carolina, and Xavier. And while they also have an ugly loss to Cornell in their non-conference slate, the Terriers picked up a nice overtime win against George Mason.

Tendencies: Wofford is a very good offensive team. They play to their strength, which is Dahlman on the block. They are excellent at getting the ball into Dahlman, who is one of the most efficient and high-usage players in the country. They don't shoot many threes, but they make them when they take them.

How They Got There: Wofford had a slow start to the conference season, but they won five in a row down the stretch to make up a two game deficit to Charleston. The Terriers still ended up as the two seed in the southern division, but they rolled over Appalachian State and Western Carolina before coming back against Charleston to win 77-67 and earn their second straight auto-bid.

Outlook: Wofford has essentially the exact same roster as the team that nearly beat Wisconsin in the first round of the tournament last season. It will depend on the matchup and the seed that they end up with, but the Terriers will be a tough out.
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Dancing with the Stars: Old Dominion Monarchs

Conference: Colonial

Record: 26-6, 14-4

Rankings: 48 (Kenpom), 36 (Sagarin), 24 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 7/8, although I've seen everywhere from 6-9

Best Players: Frank Hassell (15.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg), Kent Bazemore (12.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.3 spg), Ben Finney (9.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.1 apg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: The Monarchs had a couple of nice wins this season -- Richmond, Xavier, DePaul, George Mason. Their only two questionable losses -- Drexel and Delaware - were road games in conference play. ODU has a profile that was good enough to be an at-large lock is they had lost to VCU on Monday night.

Tendencies: Old Dominion is a big, strong, physical team that aggressively gets to the offensive glass. They lead the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at 45.2%, where they get a ton of their points on second chance opportunities. Old Dominion doesn't force a lot of turnovers, but the turnovers they do force tend to be of the pick-six variety -- jumping passing lanes or ripping a ball-handler and going the other way for a transition layup. The key to beating ODU is limiting these easy baskets, because the Monarchs are not a great half court team. They don't have a true point guard, a player than can create off of the dribble. They lack outside shooters. Simply put, their best offense in the half court tends to be a missed shot.

How They Got There: ODU had a good non-conference season, but dug themselves a bit of a hole at the start of conference play. After losing to George Mason, they fell to 9-4 in the league, but they haven't lost since then. They won their last six games -- five of which came in the conference -- and earned the No. 2 seed in the CAA Tournament. After beating Delaware and Hofstra, the Monarchs held on against a scrappy VCU team to earn the league's auto bid.

Outlook: Old Dominion is a very good basketball team. They are experienced, they are athletic, and they defend. Keep in mind, this is a team that also knocked off Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament last season. I wouldn't want to be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed that got stuck in the region with the Monarchs.
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Dancing with the Stars: Indiana State Sycamores

Conference: Missouri Valley

Record: 20-13, 12-6

Rankings: 110 (Kenpom), 113 (Sagarin), 95 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 14/15

Best Players: Dwayne Lathan (11.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg), Carl Richard (9.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg), Jake Odum (9.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.0 apg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: The Sycamores kept it close with both Purdue and Notre Dame in a non-conference slate that was mostly disappointing. Their best win was at Oral Roberts, while they dropped games to the likes of Eastern Kentucky, Wyoming, and Loyola IL.

Tendencies: Indiana State is actually the best defensive team in the MVC, which is saying a lot considering the reputation of that conference. They don't create too many turnovers, they simply play tough, fundamental, man-to-man defense, force difficult shots, and clean the defensive glass. Offensively, they are balanced but a bit limited. Seven players average at least 6.1 ppg, but no one more than 11.0 ppg. Part of it is the slower pace the Sycamores like to play, and part of it is injuries they have battled this season. One thing worth noting -- ISU has been very good in close games, even winning two on buzzer beaters earlier this year.

How They Got There: After starting the season out 4-6, Indiana State found a groove early in league play, winning seven of their first eight games. But once the Sycamores got to the meat of their schedule, they lost five in a row and seemingly fell out of contention. They rebounded, however, winning their last five in league play (sandwiched around a loss to Morehead State in Bracket Buster's) and then beating Evansville, Wichita State, and Missouri State to advance to the NCAA Tournament.

Outlook: The Valley is not as good as we have become accustomed to this season. ISU was the three seed in the tournament, and while they won, there is very little chance for Missouri State or Wichita State to earn an at-large bid. Valley teams always seem to be dangerous in the tournament -- their league is so competitive and physical that they are prepared for tournament battles -- but I don't love this group. I like the two Jakes as players, Lathan is a terrific athlete, but I just don't see enough playmaking on this roster to pull off an upset of a 14 or 15 seed.
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Dancing with the Stars: Morehead State Eagles

Conference: Ohio Valley

Record: 24-9, 13-5

Rankings: 97 (Kenpom), 111 (Sagarin), 77 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 15/16, possibly a play-in game

Best Players: Kenny Faried (17.4 ppg, 14.5 rpg, 2.0 spg, 2.4 bpg), Demonte Harper (16.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.4 apg), Terrance Hill (10.4 ppg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: The Eagles knocked off a couple of notable non-conference opponents. They beat SoCon regular season co-champion Charleston in January and then took down the MVC's auto-bid winner Indiana State on Bracket Buster's weekend in February. MSU put up a fight at Florida and at Ohio State, but they also suffered bad losses to UNC-Wilmington, Tennessee State, Eastern Kentucky, and Eastern Illinois.

Tendencies: We've all heard the saying "their best offense might be a missed shot". Well, that is Morehead State for you. They have the kind of size you don't often see at this level of basketball, led by potential first round pick and the NCAA's all-time leading rebounder Kenneth Faried. Demontez Harper, a 6'4" senior guard, is another big time scorer. The Eagles don't really have a point guard that can create, which is part of the reason they turn the ball over as much as they do and could cause a problem against a pressuring defense.

How They Got There: The Eagles started the conference season slowly, starting 4-4, before winning eight in a row to set up a defacto regular season title game against Murray State. The Racers won that battle, forcing Morehead State into the No. 2 seed in the OVC Tournament. But Murray lost in the semifinals, denying us a rubber match between the two OVC favorites, but giving the Fighting Farieds an easy path back to the NCAA Tournament.

Outlook: Generally, I would say that Morehead State is a candidate to pull an upset of a top team. They have size, they are experienced, and they performed well on the road against Florida and Ohio State. The problem with that? They are likely going to be locking horns with, at the worst, a two seed. Anything is possible, but the best case scenario may be that Faried gets matched up with someone like a JaJuan Johnson and dominates.
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Dancing with the Stars: Belmont Bruins

Conference: Atlantic Sun

Record: 30-4, 19-1

Rankings: 20 (Kenpom), 33 (Sagarin), 50 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 13/14

Best Players: Ian Clark (12.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg), Mick Hedgepeth (10.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Scott Saunders (10.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: Belmont has just four losses on the season. They lost at Tennessee twice (by nine and by one), they lost at Vanderbilt by nine, and they lost at Lipscomb in the rematch of the Battle of the Boulevard. Unfortunately, those are the only quality opponents Belmont has faced. They have just two top 100 wins -- both East Tennessee State, who is 96th in the RPI.

Tendencies: Belmont reminds me quite a bit of last year's Murray State team that knocked off Vanderbilt in the NCAA Tournament's first round. They are incredibly balanced -- 11 players averaged between 10.4 and 24.6 mpg and no one scores more than 12.4 ppg -- and are one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. Offensively, they execute very well and have a number of players that can shoot from distance, but they also grab 37.9% of the available offensive rebounds.

How They Got There: Belmont cruised this season. The Bruins went into the start of conference play 8-3 and rolled through their Atlantic Sun opponents. If you include the tournament games, Belmont went 22-1 in league play. All but four of those wins were by double figures, including an 87-46 win over North Florida in the title game.

Outlook: Belmont has the make-up of a team that teams in the 3-5 range need to worry about. They are experienced, they force turnovers, they can rebound the ball, and they have a number of excellent shooters that shoot a lot of threes. With potential matchups against teams like St. John's, Georgetown, Florida, Louisville, Arizona, and UConn, and potential round of 32 matchups against another team of similar caliber, the Bruins are a legitimate Sweet 16 sleeper.
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Dancing with the Stars: UNC-Asheville Bulldogs

Conference: Big South

Record: 19-13, 11-7

Rankings: 141 (Kenpom), 157 (Sagarin), 170 (RPI)

Potential Seed: 15 or 16, possibly a play-in game

Best Players: G - JP Primm (14.4 ppg, 4.6 apg, 2.1 spg), G - Matt Dickey (15.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.3 apg), John Williams (8.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg)


Big Wins, Bad Losses: Asheville actually had a win over a high-major team this season, knocking off Auburn early in the season. They hung with both North Carolina and Georgetown early in the season, as well. The Bulldogs only notched four wins over top 200 teams, however: Western Carolina, VMI, and Coastal Carolina twice.

Tendencies: Asheville thrives on pushing the pace and forcing turnovers, as they have the tenth highest defensive turnover percentage in the country at 24.5%. Junior guards JP Primm and Matt Dickey orchestrate the offense on most occasions. Games involving the Bulldogs generally end up being pretty exciting, as UNCA is almost as bad at protecting the ball on the offensive end as they are at forcing turnovers defensively. Starting center and leading scorer DJ Cunningham has been in and out of the lineup all season and missed the last two games of the Big South Tournament with an ankle injury. He's the only player on the roster over 6'8", which could be a disastrous loss if the Bulldogs run into a team with a big front line -- they are already 322nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

How They Got There: The Bulldogs got hot at the right time. They won their last three games of the regular season to earn the third seed in the Big South tournament. After taking out Charleston Southern in the opening round of the Big South Tournament, UNCA easily dispatched both High Point and Coastal Carolina, the latter of which was their second win in two weeks against the Chanticleers.

Outlook: The Bulldogs, in all likelihood, are going to be knocked out of the NCAA Tournament in the round of 64. They'll need to get their front court healthy and luck into a match up with a team that has a smallish front line and a penchant for turning the ball over. If they get Notre Dame or BYU, picking an upset might deserve a closer look. If they have to play Ohio State or Kansas, it will be worth it to watch just in case The Masked Dunker takes flight.
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