2011-2012 Season Preview: Breakout Players

One of my favorite things to do during the preseason is try and identify the guys that will have breakout years in the upcoming season.

Unlike Luke Winn, I'm not using any mathematical formulas to make these determinations. Instead, its a combination of young players that have looked promising early in their careers, talented role players that are in a position to take on a much larger role in the offense or simply kids that I have a hunch on. This list is not scientific, but we do believe it to be all-encompassing.

Here's the catch -- too many of these lists have been done already. Everyone has written that Thomas Robinson, Jeremy Lamb and Terrence Ross have a chance to be all-americans this season. We all know that Terrell Stoglin and DeShaun Thomas are expected to have monster sophomore years. So we went a little deeper.

Without further ado, here is our list of 20 players -- and 10 extras -- that we expect to have a big 2011-2012 season:

To browse through the rest of our Season Previews, click here.


Keith Appling, So., Michigan State: Appling came into East Lansing with some significant hype. That's generally what happens when you're a McDonald's all-american and you join a program like the Spartans. And while his minutes and shots were limited thanks to the presence of Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers, Appling did show off an impressive jump shot, knocking down 41.1% of his threes, which is a good sign given the reputation he had as a slasher and a driver in high school. Appling will the primary ball-handler for Michigan State, but the offense will run through playmaking power forward Draymond Green. That will allow Appling to be aggressive as a scorer, a role I expect him to thrive in this year.


Tarik Black, So., Memphis: On a team that boasts already Joe Jackson and Will Barton, would you believe me if I told you that Tarik Black was the sophomore on the Memphis Tigers? What if I told you that he was the most likely to win the Conference USA Player of the Year award, would you believe that? Black spent much of last season out of shape and in foul trouble. He's still on the road to recovery from a knee injury he suffered during his junior year of high school. But despite those problems, Black still came on very strong late in the season, finishing the year with averages of 9.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg and 1.6 bpg. After spending the summer working out with Frank Matrisciano, Black, who is one of the most aggressive offensive rebounders in the country and an excellent shot blocker, is in the best shape of his life. That's a scary thing to hear for Conference USA opponents.

Rob Brandenberg, So., and Juvonte Reddic, So., VCU: There are a ton of minutes available for the Rams this season Shaka Smart's club lost four of their top five scorers from the Final Four team. Bradford Burgess does return to anchor this roster, but he's going to need help, and both Brandenberg and Reddic seem primed for big years. Brandenberg, a 6'2" sophomore and an athletic slasher, had a some big performances in the middle of the season -- including a couple of 20 points outbursts -- before an injury in February slowed his progress. Reddic didn't see a ton of minutes, but he was a well-regarded recruit and he has the kind of talent that should allow him to fill in for the production lost with Jamie Skeen's graduation.

Allen Crabbe, So., Cal: Allen Crabbe may have already broken out. After struggling for the first 13 games of last season, the 6'6" sophomore wing flourished when Gary Franklin decided to leave the team and transfer to Baylor. Crabbe, who averaged just 8.4 ppg with Franklin in the lineup, scored 16.9 ppg the rest of the way. That number would be even higher if it wasn't for an injury he suffered at Washington in February. I wouldn't be surprised if he led the Pac-12 in scoring this season.

Jared Cunningham, Jr., Oregon State: There aren't many players in the country that can claim to be remotely as athletic as Jared Cunningham. The 6'4" wing is a physical specimen when it comes to playing the perimeter at this level. He's got an outstanding vertical, he's got an impressive wingspan and he's very quick, both laterally and with his first step. That's a major reason why he's one of the best defenders in the country; he averaged 2.8 spg last season. But what's most intriguing about Cunningham is he's no where near a finished product. While he led the Beavers in scoring last season at 14.2 ppg, he did it mostly as a spot-up shooter, attacking the offensive glass and scoring points in transition. What happens when the 20 year old becomes adept at beating his man off the dribble and scoring in the mid-range?



Seth Curry, Jr., Duke: The key for Duke this season may end up being how well Seth Curry plays. Duke is going to be talented but unproven at every position on the floor next year. Austin Rivers will likely go through the ups and downs that freshmen have. The only thing the Plumlees have done consistently in their careers has been being inconsistent. Ryan Kelly has some hype, but he still needs to prove it in the ACC. Alex Murphy and Michael Gbinije are freshmen. Curry will have to be the anchor for this team, a leader that can create shots in crunch-time and understands how to distribute the ball. Curry needs to embrace the role of being a point guard.

CJ Fair, So., Syracuse: A member of the same recruiting class as Dion Waiters and Fab Melo, CJ Fair actually turned out to be the most productive and promising freshmen Jim Boeheim recruited. After a relatively ho-hum start to the season, Fair was thrust into the national spotlight when he scored 16 points and grabbed nine rebounds against Pitt in mid-January. Fair averaged 7.9 ppg over the final 17 games, putting up a couple of impressive performances. A lefty, the 6'8" combo-forward is a terrific athlete that understands how to make plays with his athleticism -- offensive rebounds, steals, blocks. As his skills develop, Fair will only become a more dangerous player.

Erick Green, Jr., Virginia Tech: I actually think that Virginia Tech is going to just as good as, if not better, than they were the past few seasons with Malcolm Delaney running the show. Green is the reason for that. He didn't start to see significant minutes until Dorenzo Hudson had his season cut short with a broken foot, but he was very good when he finally got into the lineup. Green averaged 11.7 ppg and 2.7 apg while posting a 2.3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He did that despite Delaney dominating possession of the ball. Expect a big season out of Green as Tech's point guard this year.

Tim Hardaway Jr, So., Michigan: Tim Hardaway Jr. is in a similar position to both Jeremy Lamb and Allen Crabbe. After spending the first part of his freshman season as a role player for the Wolverines, Hardaway really came on strong down the stretch. He gave John Beilein a second go-to scoring option alongside Darius Morris, and his play late in the year was a huge reason Michigan was able to win eight of their last 11 games and sneak into the NCAA Tournament. With Morris making the jump to the NBA, even more responsibility will fall onto Hardaway's shoulders. He should be ready to handle it.


Sean Kilpatrick, So., and Yancy Gates, Sr., Cincinnati: Part of the reason I think that Cincinnati is going to be a sneaky-good team in the Big East this season is that I am expecting big years out of both Gates and Kilpatrick, albeit for different reasons. Gates has always been one of the most talented players in the conference, but conditioning and effort were an issue. A mid-season suspension was the wake-up call he needed, however, and Gates averaged 15.0 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 1.3 bpg over the final 10 games. Kilpatrick, on the other hand, was a high-efficiency, high-volume shooter last season. He averaged 9.7 ppg but only averaged around 20 mpg. It will be interesting to see what he is able to do in a more focal role this year.

Khyle Marshall, So., Butler: Marshall had a promising freshman campaign with the Bulldogs, putting together a pair of impressive performances during the Bulldog's run to the national title game. Marshall is not your typical Butler player. He's a terrific athlete, the kind of guy that normally gets scooped up to ride the bench of a high-major program. Marshall is an excellent rebounder (especially on the offensive end of the floor) and defender, and playing alongside Andrew Smith, that's about all he is going to be asked to do. Expect a significant bump from the 5.8 ppg and 3.8 rpg he averaged last season.

Rodney McGruder, Jr., Kansas State: McGruder was a bystander like the rest of us, a witness to the late-season performances from Jacob Pullen as he carried the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament last season. That said, McGruder did have some of his best games late in the season, particularly when it came to scoring the ball. There isn't much that McGruder doesn't do well at this level. He can shoot (40.8% from three), he can rebound (6.0 rpg) and he can score (11.4 rpg). He's a high-efficiency player that has already begun to embrace the role of being the leader for this team.

Brandon Paul, Jr., and DJ Richardson, Jr., Illinois: Illinois lost five of their top eight players from last season, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Demetri McCamey and Jereme Richmond were head cases and distractions, their loss ending up being addition by subtraction. With all those players leaving, it opens up quite a few minutes and shots for Paul and Richardson, both juniors. Richardson is a better shooter than Paul, but Paul is a more dangerous all-around player, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Expect them to become the first and second options offensively this year.


Andre Roberson, So., Colorado: Roberson wax an unheralded recruit coming out of high school, but at 6'7" with long arms and terrific athleticism, Roberson quickly proved his value to Big 12 opponents. Playing just 22.3 mpg, Roberson averaged 7.8 rpg, finishing in the top 25 of both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. He was also a terror on the defensive end, where he was among the Big 12 leaders in steals and blocks. Right now, Roberson's strength lies in the things he can do without the ball -- rebound, defend, cut to the basket -- but with Colorado losing so much talent from last season, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to score this season. Here's to hoping Roberson put in the work this summer on his offensive arsenal.

Maalik Wayns, Jr., and Mouphtaou Yarou, Jr., Villanova: The obvious pick here is Jeremy Lamb of UConn. The trendy pick is Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati. So in order to buck that trend, I'll go with Villanova's two elder statesmen. The Wildcats have almost no hype heading into this season. Having flamed out in the postseason the past two years and losing four key pieces from that team, you wouldn't be wrong to ignore Villanova heading into the year. But I like the makeup of this team. I think they have similar pieces at the two, three and four to the group that made the Final Four run in 2009, but I also think that with the opportunity to take over the role of the star, both Wayns and Yarou will shine. Both players are impressive talents that were forced to play third and fourth fiddle to the two Coreys last season. If Wayns has gotten his jumper more consistent and Yarou has become a better low-post scorer, I think those two will carry a Villanova team that will rely more heavily on the defensive end of the floor than we are used to.

Kendall Williams, So., New Mexico: Williams can flat out play. As a third or fourth option for the Lobos as a freshman, Williams -- who won the freshman of the year award in the MWC -- finished with averages of 11.5 ppg and 4.0 apg despite playing alongside Dairese Gary. Gary graduated in the offseason, which means that Williams, along with Drew Gordon, will become the center of the New Mexico attack. To get an idea of what kind of production can be expected, Williams scored 18 points in both of the Lobo's NIT games after Gary suffered a season-ending knee injury.


Ten more players to keep an eye on:

Mike Breusewitz, Jr., Wisconsin
Jordan Clarkson, So., Tulsa
Tyreek Duren, So., La Salle
Langston Galloway, So., St. Joseph's
Stephen Holt, So., St. Mary's
Cedrick Lindsay, So., Richmond
Dundrecous Nelson, So., Ole Miss
Jake Odum, So., Indiana State
Devon Saddler, So., Delaware
Peyton Siva, Jr., Louisville

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2009-2010 College Basketball Season Preview: Breakout Players

Cole Aldrich averaged just 8.3 mpg as a freshman, before becoming one of the best centers in the country this past season.

Jodie Meeks had two unimpressive, injury-plagued seasons before becoming one of college basketball's most electrifying scorers as a junior.

Every season, there are kids that come from college basketball obscurity and burst onto the national scene. Who will have a break out year in 2009-2010?

Ed Davis, North Carolina - 6'10" 225lb: Davis is in kind of the same boat Aldrich was last season. As a freshman, he was a promising prospect that was stuck behind a loaded front line. Davis is long, athletic, and plays with a great deal of energy. He has shown the ability to be one of the better defenders and rebounders in the country, and with the added scoring opportunities with the graduation of Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, and Ty Lawson, it isn't a stretch to think Davis could average 15 and 10 as a sophomore.

Ed Davis could be the next great Tar Heel big man.
(photo credit: Raleigh Durham About)

Kemba Walker, UConn - 6'1" 172lb: Walker was stuck playing behind AJ Price as a freshman. But with Price's graduation, this will be Kemba's UConn team to run. And run they will. The last two seasons, UConn has played a much more controlled pace than you expect from a Jim Calhoun team. Price, Hasheem Thabeet, and Jeff Adrien were all more suited to a slower paced, grind-it-out style. With those three gone, UConn will rely on Walker, Jerome Dyson, and Stanley Robinson to lead them, all of whom could be considered the most athletic player at their positions. UConn is going to press defensively and run offensively, and Walker is going to be the catalyst.

Kim English, Missouri - 6'6" 200lb: Anyone that watched the NCAA tournament (and if you read this blog, that means you) should know what English can do when he gets hot: during a four minute stretch against Marquette in the second round, English hit three threes and scored 15 points. A 6'6" two-guard, English is tall enough to get his shot off over most perimeter defenders, but he also has enough athleticism to survive in the 40-minutes-of-hell style the Tigers play. With guys like Leo Lyons, DeMarre Carroll, JT Tiller, and Matt Lawrence all graduating, expect English to get many more minutes and shots.

Chris Wright, Georgetown - 6'1", 208lb: Wright was a much-hyped recruit coming out of St. John's high school in Maryland, but an injury to his foot severely limited his court time as a freshman. Combine that with playing behind Jonathon Wallace, and last season was essentially Wright's first in the Big East. With that came the growing pains - at times he was brilliant, but overall he had an inconsistent season. He now has a year of experience under his belt, and knowing what to expect in a watered down Big East, Wright should be more comfortable and confident leading the Hoyas.

Wesley Johnson, Syracuse - 6'7", 198lb: Johnson was a player for two years with Iowa State, averaging 12 ppg both seasons. But during his sophomore year, he played on an ankle that required surgery after the season was done. Now that he has had 16 months to get healthy, Johnson will start over in a program looking for their own fresh start. The Orange lost a ton of talent on the perimeter, and Johnson will be expected to shoulder the scoring load from day one. Johnson is a tremendous athlete with a jumper that is very effective when he doesn't fall in love with it - which is what happened during his sophomore season (although, that was most likely a result of his injury). If he can become the player he was as a freshman - attacking the glass, going to the basket, defending - Johnson should put up impressive scoring numbers and thrive playing the back line of the Syracuse zone.

Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson will be counted on to replace the scoring of Jonny Flynn and Eric Devendorf.
(photo credit: Flagrant Fouls)

Matthew Bryan-Amaning, Washington - 6'9", 240lb: A lot of people are predicting the Huskies to be the best team on the West Coast, and that prediction could very well hold true as U-Dub will field one of the most dynamic back courts in the country. But back court play will only get you so far during the season. Washington will be heading into this year with a gaping hole in their frontline courtesy of Jon Brockman's graduation. Bryan-Amaning will be the guy called upon to fill a lot of those minutes. He has shown signs of being a star-in-the-making during his first two seasons, but both seasons faded down the stretch as his minutes and production tailed off during Pac-10 play. The Huskies, if possible, are going to play an even faster tempo than they did last season, and given Bryan-Amaning's length, athleticism, and face-up game, he should be able to thrive.

Malcolm Lee, UCLA - 6'5", 180lb: Lee has been getting a ton of attention during the off-season, and it isn't hard to see why - the kid looks like he could be the second coming off Russell Westbrook. If you remember, Westbrook flew under the radar as a freshman before exploding as a sophomore and becoming the fourth pick of the 2008 draft. Like Westbrook, Lee is a rangy combo guard with outstanding athleticism. He struggled to find minutes in a crowded back court last season, but that doesn't mean that he isn't blessed loads of talent. Lee is still a bit raw, especially on the offensive end, but he has already garnered a reputation for being a play maker defensively. If he is allowed to take some advantage of his outstanding ability to create in the open court, Lee could be a first team all-Pac 10 player.

Can Malcolm Lee follow in Russell Westbrook's footsteps?

Roburt Sallie, Memphis - 6'5", 196lb: Remember what I said about Kim English? If you watched the NCAA Tournament, you know what this guy is capable of. The exact same can be said about Sallie. Sallie spent most of the season on John Calipari's bench, but exploded for 35 points and 10 three's as he carried the Tiger's to a first round win against Cal State Northridge. One of the best shooters in the country, new coach Josh Pastner is going to need a big season out of Sallie, as the NBA Draft and a disappearing recruiting class has left the Tiger's cupboard pretty bare.

Ishmael Smith, Wake Forest - 6'0", 175lb: As a freshman, Ishmael Smith was one of the most promising point guards in the country, averaging 6.0 apg. But something happened over the past two seasons, and that something was named Jeff Teague. Teague dominated the ball during his time in Winston-Salem, forcing Smith into a much less significant role. But that doesn't mean Smith can't play. He is not a great scorer, but what he does well is break down a defense and lead a break. In other words, he can create scoring chances for others, which is going to be so important for a Wake team that doesn't have a lot of polished offensive weapons.

Ashton Gibbs, Pttsburgh - 6'2", 200lb: Pitt will be heading into this season with basically a whole new team. With four starters gone, and two of their top returners out to start the season (Jermaine Dixon's foot injury and Gilbert Brown's suspension), Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker will be basically the only two guys back. Gibbs played a limited role as a freshman for the Panthers, but in those limited minutes he produced. He also had an impressive summer playing for the U-19 World Champions (coached by Pitt head coach Jamie Dixon). Gibbs will be counted upon immediately to produce for the Panthers, and he should be up to the task. He proved his ability to shoot from the perimeter last season, but this year he will be asked to lead this team as a scorer and play maker.

William Buford, Ohio State - 6'5", 185lb: Buford took some time to find a rhythm as a freshman, but once he got comfortable he really started to show some promising signs at the end of the year. Buford is one of the most fluid scorers in the Big Ten. He is so good at reading a defense and coming off of a screen, and is deadly when shooting in the 15-18 foot range. If Buford can expand his ability to slash to the rim, he could prove to be a deadly complement to Evan Turner.

Honorable Mention:

Michael Dunigan, Oregon
Paul George, Fresno State
Demetri Goodson, Gonzaga
Terrence Jennings, Louisville
Larry Sanders, VCU
Jeff Taylor, Vanderbilt
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Breakout Players

Sam Young of Pitt went from averaging 7.2 ppg and 3.0 rpg as a sophomore to 18.1 ppg and 6.3 rpg as a junior. Russell Westbrook went from scoring 3.4 ppg in limited action as a freshman to starting as a sophomore and averaging 12.7 ppg and 3.9 apg while playing his way into the fourth overall pick in last year's draft.

Every year there are guys that come from college basketball obscrurity and burst on the scene by putting up all-american type numbers and performances. Who are the guys that will have a break out year in 2008-2009?

DeJuan Blair, Pitt: Blair has already proven that he is one of the best at establishing position in the post, and may be the country's best rebounder. With the Panthers losing the perimeter scoring of Ronald Ramon and Keith Benjamin, and with Levance Fields still nursing a bad foot, Blair should get plenty of opportunities to score down low.

Damion James, Texas: That Rick Barnes recruiting class that included Kevin Durant, DJ Augustin, and James is looking pretty good now, huh? James is a combo forward that has been primarily a hustle guy in his first two years with the 'Horns, but with Augustin and Durant gone, expect for James to be more aggressive with the ball offensively. The most impressive thing about James is that he can score so many different ways - knocking down three's, attacking the basket from the wing, finishing on a break, getting an offensive put back. To be fair, can a guy really have a break out year coming off of a season where he averaged a double double? 

Jodie Meeks, Kentucky: Meeks is a 6'4" combo guard that had a promising freshman season in 2006-2007, but battled injuries (including a sports hernia he underwent surgery for in April) which limited him to 11 games in 2007-2008. With the departure of Ramel Bradley, Joe Crawford, and Derrick Jasper, Meeks is going to be logging a lot of minutes in an inexperienced UK back court, and now that he is finally healthy, expect a big year out of the junior.

Cole Aldrich, Kansas: Aldrich was a Mickey D's all-american coming out of high school, but as a freshman was stuck behind the three-headed monster of Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson, and Sasha Kaun. He had a coming out party in the Final Four against UNC, going for 8 points, 7 boards (4 offensive), and 4 blocks in 18 minutes. Aldrich should get a lot of chances as the only front court returner for the Jayhawks.

Chandler Parsons, Florida: Parsons performed well during his freshman year in Gainesville, posting 8.4 ppg and 4.0 rpg in just 20.7 mpg. At 6'9", he is a combo forward, although his lack of bulk as a freshman forced him to spend a lot of time on the perimeter. Word is that Parsons spent the summer in the weight room, putting on 20-plus pounds of muscle. Billy Donovan has a knack for getting his bigs to improve dramatically between their freshman and sophomore years (Marreese Speights, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, to name a few).

Chris Allen, Michigan State: Allen was a top 25 recruit coming out of Georgia, but as a freshman he was lost in the shuffle of the Spartans back court. With Drew Neitzel gone, Allen is probably the best option for Tom Izzo at off-guard. Like Neitzel, Allen gets a lot of his points off of his jump shot, and should get plenty of attempts if teams are going to pay too much attention to Raymarr Morgan.

Chris Wright and Austin Freeman, Georgetown: With the loss of Jonathan Wallace and Roy Hibbert, Georgetown may be looking at having to speed up their style of play, mainly because it would better suit these two sophomores. Wright, who was slowed by an injured ankle last year, is one of the quickest guards in the Big East end to end. Freeman, at 6'4", 240 lb, is one of the most powerful wing players in the country, but he is deceivingly athletic and is a more-than-capable three point shooter. With Georgetown returning just four rotation guys, expect the Hoyas to rely heavily on Wright and Freeman.

James Anderson, Oklahoma State: Anderson, a 6'6" shooting guard, didn't exactly have a quiet freshman season, leading the Cowboys in scoring at 13.3 ppg. With a year to get used to head coach Travis Ford and their top four scorers back from a year ago, this OK State squad should make some noise in the Big XII, and Anderson will be the guy leading the way.

Craig Brackins, Iowa State: Brackins is as talented as they come. The athletic, 6'10" sophomore can play both on the block and on the perimeter, and is a very good three-point shooter (he had 33 points and 8 three's against Baylor last year). Iowa State graduated Jiri Hubalek and Rahshon Clark, and lost Wesley Johnson as a transfer, which means Brackins will be the focal point of the Cyclone offense this year. Continue reading...