BIAH Season Update: Biggest Surprises

The art of analyzing college basketball is not a perfect science. No matter the amount of work you put in during the summer - watching last season's games, reading up on a team's local media coverage, researching freshman and some of the seldom used guys on the bench - it is still essentially a crap shoot when trying to project how 347 teams will perform during a given season. Some guys work their tails off during the summer and come back better players for it. Some guys don't and come back out of shape. Some lower rated freshman become stars. Some highly touted recruits fizzle out. Sometimes teams click. Other times the chemistry just isn't there.

Now that we are about midway through the season, let's take a look at some of this year's biggest surprises:

Wake Forest and Jeff Teague: A lot of people thought that the Demon Deacons were going to be good this year. But this good? Right now Wake is sitting at #2 in the country (or #3 depending on if you ask the coaches or the writers) with a 14-0 record after knocking off UNC, and a huge reason for that has been the emergence of Jeff Teague. Teague played well last season, averaging 13.9 ppg and earning All-ACC Rookie Team honors. Sure, you expect him to get better, but I doubt anyone predicted that Teague would emerge as a potential first team all-american and be in the conversation for ACC, and even national, player of the year. I didn't even list him among my top point guards. Neither did Gary Parrish. Teague is currently averaging 20.6 ppg, 4.1 apg, 4.2 rpg, 2.1 spg, and shooting an absurd 53.6% from the field. Teague also has been aided by playing alongside maybe the best front line in america. The bottom line is that this team has a very real chance at not only reaching the Final Four, but winning a national title.

California: In '07-'08, the Bears went 17-16 and 6-12 in Pac-10 play. They lost first-team all-Pac 10 forward Ryan Anderson (21.9 ppg, 9.9 rpg) and starting center DeVon Hardin to the NBA. Head Coach Ben Braun left for Rice University and was replaced by Mike Montogomery. So what happened this season? Cal has started out 15-2, 4-0 in the Pac-10, and has become the only serious threat to Arizona State and UCLA to win the conference. The Bears get it done from beyond the arc. They shoot, as a team, a ridiculous 48.3% from three, although it is mostly from three guys - Jerome Randle (49%), Patrick Christopher (41%), and Theo Robertson (59%). This team is a ton of fun to watch, mainly because of Randle. He is a 5'9" lighting quick point guard that probably could have gotten his own nomination as one of the nation's biggest surprises. His scoring (19.1 from 11.8), assists (4.9 from 3.7), and shooting (52% from 42%) are all up from last season. He isn't afraid to fire from anywhere on the court either, often pulling up from 26 feet.

Jodie Meeks: Meeks had a promising freshman season in '06-'07, but struggled with injuries and getting playing time behind Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley in '07-'08. This season, Meeks has emerged as one of the best scorers in the nation and the front runner for SEC player of the year. Before Tuesday's game at Tennessee, Meeks had already gone for 46, 39, 37, and 32 points in a game, but against the Vols he had probably the greatest single performance I have ever seen. He went for 54 points in Tennessee on 15-21 shooting and 10-15 from three, and just about ran Tennessee off the court himself. So what is the difference this year? Meeks has really developed a deadly jump shot. He is shooting 48% from the field and 44% from three. But more impressive is that on the season, Meeks has scored 441 points on just 280 shots - equivalent to 1.58 points per shot, a phenomenal number for a jump shooter. Can you say efficiency?

The Big Ten: The Big Ten has been considered the worst of the BCS conferences for a few years now. The biggest reason? A number of the traditional powers have not had the success they are used to. Most people expected more of the same this year as Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State, and Wisconsin were all thought to be down this season. The conference has caught a lot of people by surprise this year. While they are not quite on the level of the ACC of the Big East, the Big Ten is probably the third best league and has a chance to get six or seven teams into the dance. The biggest surprise in the league has to be Minnesota. The Gophers were a respectable 8-10 in league play last year (their first under Tubby Smith), but if I told you that two weeks into conference season Minnesota would be 15-1 and a top 20 team, would you have believed me? Equally impressive has been the improvement of Michigan and Illinois. You knew Michigan wouldn't be down for long with the addition of John Beilein, but this team (which boasts wins over UCLA and Duke) was 10-22 last year and won just one game in the league. You also knew a Bruce Webber led team wouldn't stay down. The emergence of Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis, and Demetri McCamey to go alongside the veteran back court of Chester Frazier and Trent Meachem has made the Illini one of the most balanced teams in the country. Ohio State has struggled of late with out David Lighty but still boasts a 12-3 record and a win at Notre Dame. Even perennial cellar dweller Penn State is having success on the court this year with a 13-4 record and a win over Purdue.

Clemson: For 4th straight season, Clemson has started out the year with a long undefeated streak. This year, they are sitting at 16-0, 2-0 in the ACC, but it may be the most improbable of their season opening runs. The Tigers lost a lot when Cliff Hammonds and James Mays graduated. It was more than just talent - those two provided a lot of senior leadership. Not much was expected from this group in '09, but they have emerged as a serious threat in the ACC. While KC Rivers (14.7 ppg and 6.5 rpg) and Trevor Booker (15.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg, and 2.8 bpg) are both having fantastic seasons, the x-factor has been the emergence of Demontez Stitt as a playmaker. Stitt is averaging 8.3 ppg and 3.6 apg, but more importantly he provides Clemson with a guy that not only can defend but that can get into the paint and score or find a teammate. Clemson has played a bit of a light schedule (although wins at Illinois, South Carolina, and Miami FL are pretty impressive), but they get a real test when Wake Forest comes to town on Saturday.

Syracuse and Georgetown: Syracuse and Georgetown. Jim Boeheim and John Thompson. Those are names that are synonomous with success in the Big East. But with how loaded the Big East is this season, both of these teams were predicted to be middle-of-the-pack in the conference this year. Nothing could have been further from the truth as both are currently ranked in the top 15. After knocking off the Orange on Wednesday, the Hoyas are currently sitting at 12-3, 3-2 in the Big East. Their record is much more impressive when you consider that they've won at UConn and beat Syracuse, while their two losses have come at Notre Dame (55 straight wins at home) and against Pitt (the Panthers are ok this year). The best news for Georgetown is that their bench, which has been struggling this season, has played much better the last two games.

While Georgetown has come out of their toughest stretch in good shape, Syracuse is just entering a brutal ten game stretch. Including their loss to Georgetown, the Orange play eight of their next ten against ranked teams (and one of the unranked teams was last weeks #22 West Virginia). They are 16-2, 4-1 in the Big East (playing an easy schedule - before G'Town their conference opponents combined record was 1-14), but they have had some impressive non-conference wins. They won at Memphis, beat Florida and Kansas in Kansas City, and were a 70 foot prayer from Cleveland State away from heading into DC last night undefeated. The difference this season has been the return of Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins from knee injuries, giving Flynn some back court help while providing perimeter shooting to stretch the defense. Rick Jackson's development as a solid post contributor has also been key to the Orange success.

Wesley Matthews: The last three seasons, whenever you would discuss Marquette's guards, most people would say "Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and the other kid, you know, what's his name..?". "What's his name" is Wesley Matthews, and he has always been just as good as the other two. The issue with Matthews is that he's always been a great teammate, willing to defer to the other two when needed. This season, with Marquette lacking balance on the interior, Buzz Williams knew that he needed Matthews to be a scorer. Matthews never averaged more than 12.6 ppg in a season (that came as a sophomore), but this year he is the team's leading scorer at 18.9 ppg and arguably their most important player. Jerel McNeal, Dominic James, Lazar Hayward - while all talented, they tend to settle for jumpers. Matthews is much more of a penetrator, as he is taking 8.5 free throw's per game. His emergence is a big reason why Marquette is currently 15-2 and 4-0 in the Big East.

Texas A&M: Texas A&M was never really known as a basketball school before Billy Gillispie got there, but with the help of Acie Law, he managed to change the expectations of Aggie fans. With Gillispie gone, Mark Turgeon (formerly of Wichita State) has done a pretty good job of keeping the program moving in the right direction. They reached the tournament last year only to be robbed against knocked out by UCLA, but lost Joseph Jones, DeAndre Jordan, and most importantly Dominique Kirk off of that team. As you might expect, the most pundits had the Aggies finishing somewhere behind Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, and Kansas in the Big XII. To be honest, I was going to leave the 15-2 Aggies off of this list after they lost on the road to Oklahoma State in their first Big XII game. While they have some pretty good wins (Arizona, @ Alabama, LSU), they still have played a relatively light schedule and did not really have anything too impressive on their resume ... until they beat Baylor last night. Now, a road loss/home win during conference play, no matter who it is against, is not a terrible loss/great win, so making a final consensus on this Aggie team based on those two games doesn't make much sense. Its what I saw from them last night. They are a tough defensive team with two excellent guards (Donald Sloan, Josh Carter) and two really good big men (Brian Davis, Chinemelu Elonu). If they can get some of their role players to step up and be a threat, the Aggies have a real chance of returning to the NCAA's.

Butler: Butler has dominated the Horizon League for the last few years, but lost so much to graduation, including their starting back court of AJ Graves and Mike Green. The only player of significance they returned was big man Matt Howard. Butler was not expected to do all that much this year, but they might actually be better than last year's team that spent time in the top 10. The biggest reason for that has been the play of two freshman - Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack. Hayward, a combo forward averaging 12.3 ppg and 6.5 rpg, is one of the best shooters in the land, hitting at 46% and making more than two three's a game. When paired with Howard, they give the Bulldogs a very talented front line that compliments each other well. Mack is a play making guard, averaging 12.3 ppg and 3.5 apg. Butler's only loss is by three at Ohio State, but they have some pretty impressive wins - Drake, Evansville, Bradley (all atop the MVC), Xavier, Northwestern, UAB, and a buzzer beating win against Cleveland State, who was picked to finish atop the league. Continue reading...

BIAH Season Update: Top 25

1. UNC (12-0): The Tar Heels have come down to earth a little bit in their last few games, but I still think they might be the best team I have ever seen play. They have won all 12 of their games by double digits.

2. UConn (11-0): After UNC, there really is not all that much of a difference between #2 and #10, and #10 and #30. UConn looks to be the best of the bunch. They have a tough front line with Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien, and a great back court led by AJ Price and Jerome Dyson. The guy that could make the difference for this team is Stanley Robinson, who rejoined the team two weeks ago. He adds an element to their perimeter that not many teams in the country have. He is 6'9" and a great athlete. He can rebound and block shots (which is sure to help UConn inside, where they have not been as dominant as expected) but he can also get out and guard any position 1-3. And he has range beyond the three-point line. He makes UConn that much bigger along their front line, but allows them to play much smaller when needed (by putting him at the four).

3. Pitt (12-0): The Panthers are still largely untested, but if you look at some of their wins, they are more impressive than you think. They won the Legends Classic in New Jersey by beating Texas Tech (a run-and-gun team that scored 167 points in a game this year) and Washington State (a grind-it-out team that sometimes does not reach 167 points in three games) on back-to-back nights. They also beat a good Siena team and own a win at Florida State. I really like the decision to put Sam Young on the perimeter. Not only is he the team's best perimeter shooter, he is a good enough defender that he can guard most perimeter players. More importantly it helps Pitt get bigger on their front line (Tyrell Biggs and DeJuam Blair are both about 6'7"). The x-factor for this team is going to be Jermaine Dixon. Already considered one of the best perimeter defenders, if he can turn into a legitimate scoring threat, it takes that much more pressure off Young, Blair and Levance Fields. Pitt is not going to blow a lot of teams out this year, mainly because their offense is not that good (Jamie Dixon has Pitt getting out on the break more than ever because of their struggles in the half court). They are going to try and score around 65 and bank on the fact that their defense will hold you under 60.

4. Oklahoma (12-0): If you put the Griffin brothers on the floor with the Jonas brothers, you have a top 25 team. Combined, they are averaging 33.6 ppg and 21.5 rpg. The question has been can Oklahoma get enough out of their perimeter guys that it forces teams to go 1-on-1 against Blake in the post. Thus far, the results have been mixed. Willie Warren has been inconsistent (20 vs. Davidson, 6 vs. UAB, 22 vs. Purdue, 5 vs. USC). A side note on Warren - it has been widely reported that he is trying to defer to Blake Griffin and the other upper-classmen. If Oklahoma wants to be a Final Four team, they need Warren to be a bit more selfish when it comes to attacking the rim and scoring. Tony Crocker, expected to be the team's best shooter, is down to 31% on 3's from 42% as a sophomore. Cade Davis is shooting 9-34 from deep his last seven games. Austin Johnson is the only guy playing above expectations - 7.8 ppg, 4.4 apg (3:1 a-t/o), 1.8 spg, 46% from the floor (31% 3's). That said, Oklahoma is 12-0 with some really good wins. If Crocker and Davis can play up to their potential and Warren can become more consistent, then Oklahoma can legitimately be considered a national title contender.

5. Wake Forest(11-0): I knew Wake was going to be good this year, but they are better than I ever thought they could be. I love Jeff Teague. He is the best guard in the ACC not named Lawson. Their front line is arguably the best in the ACC. James Johnson and Al-Farouq Aminu are both incredibly athletic and versatile, but they also have a couple of talented 7-footers in Chas McFarland and Tony Woods. I really like Johnson's game. He can post up smaller defenders, but he will take a bigger defender away from the basket and hit a jumper or put it on the floor and go by them. The key to this team is going to be the guys that join Teague in the back court - Harvey Hale and LD Williams. While their games are polar opposites (Hale is a sharp-shooter while LD Williams is an athlete and a defense/hustle guy), they both provide an element that Wake is lacking on their perimeter otherwise. In my opinion, Wake has surpassed Duke as the second best team in the ACC.

6. Texas (10-2): I am really high on this Texas team right now. Everyone knows about AJ Abrams. He may have the quickest release in the country, and if he gets a clean look with his feet set, he is literally automatic. He has also developed into a guy that can score off the bounce, and although he isn't going to take it all the way to the rim, he will tear drop you to death. Their front line is as big and deep as anyone in the country. Damion James and Connor Atchley have both played well, but the big surprises have been the lesser known guys. Dexter Pittman is going to be a beast once he gets into shape (right now, he is averaging 8.6 ppg and 4.0 rpg in 12 mpg, which adds up to 28 and 13 per 40 minutes). Gary Johnson could start for just about any other team in the country. Clint Chapman has not put up the numbers, but in his limited minutes he has been really active. But the biggest reason I like Texas so much is Justin Mason. He guards the best player on the other team (and does a heckuva job - he might be the best perimeter defender in the Big XII) and is their glue guy, but he is also running the point this year. He is a much improved offensive player. You have to respect his jumper, but he is athletic enough to get into the lane just about whenever he wants (be it to score or to pass). They just lost a tough one to Michigan State, but (as you will see), I am pretty high on the Spartans as well.

7. Duke (10-1): More than anyone in the country, Duke is the team that I am having trouble pinpointing. Yes, they have a lot of talent. Yes, they have some (very) impressive wins over Purdue and Xavier. But I just cannot help but feel like this is the exact same team as last year (which, for the most part, it is). Basically, Duke is a group of role players, albeit very good ones. Like I've been saying all year, I think they need either Jon Scheyer or Gerald Henderson to step up and be a go-to scorer (Singler, as talented as he is, is not a guy that you can rely on to create his own shot). Scheyer has been in the last four games, averaging 18 in that span. He has the ability to create from the perimeter, either to score or to pass. The question with him has always been that he is too good of a teammate at times, opting to fit into the offense instead of becoming a big-time scorer. One thing Duke is doing very well this year is pressuring the ball defensively. They get out and guard you man-to-man (a lot of times in the full-court), forcing you to start your offense a long way from the basket.

8. Michigan State (9-2): Goran Suton and Delvon Roe seem to finally be close to 100%, which means that Michigan State is getting close to 100% as a team. Getting Suton back is especially important to MSU. He is a tough guy that will go out and set some screens and get some offensive rebounds. He has a knack for getting open, either rolling/cutting to the basket or by finding a soft spot in the zone. Once he gets the ball within about seven feet he is such a good finisher. In return, it gives the Spartan guards another option when they penetrate. Right now, the biggest thing is going to be getting Raymar Morgan to play more consistently. He has five games of 20+, five games in single digits, and just one game where he scored in between 10-19 points. But the Spartans proved how good they can be when they beat Texas in a road game neutral site game in Houston where Morgan took just three shots. Once this team gets into a rhythm, they are going to be scary.

9. Syracuse (12-1): The Eric Devendorf fiasco is finally over as he will be reinstated before the Seton Hall game, so now the Orange can get back to business. In terms of talent, Syracuse looks to be one of the best in the country, especially if Rick Jackson continues his emergence as a second option inside. The question with the Orange is focus. Too many times this season they have started out a game slow, only to come from way back to win. It burned them against Cleveland State. I'm going to give the Orange the benefit of the doubt, hoping that conference season will help them focus better at the start of games. But if you can't get fired up playing Kansas in Kansas City or Memphis at Memphis (both on national TV), then how are you going to get motivated when you play Seton Hall at home?

10. Gonzaga (8-3): Wait, wait, wait. Am I really going to put an 8-3 team from the WCC into my top 10? Yes, I am. Losing to Arizona on the road and UConn at home in OT (when three of your starters foul out) are not necessarily bad losses. Losing to Portland State two days after the UConn loss and two days before Christmas is inexcusable, but still understandable. I see a similar issue with this team that I do with Duke. Who is their go-to guy? It needs to be Jeremy Pargo, but is he going to be up to the task? He disappeared down the stretch against UConn when they really needed someone to step up and get them a big hoop. But, like I said, this Gonzaga team just has too much size, versatility, talent, and balance to actually be this bad.

11. Notre Dame (9-2): I haven't been all that impressed with Notre Dame, but they have a pretty impressive resume. They hold a win over Texas in the Maui Invitational, and their only two losses are to UNC and Ohio State, neither of which could really be considered "bad" losses. The biggest issue for the Irish right now is that they need to get Kyle McAlarney and Luke Harangody back on the same page. In the three games the big fella missed due to pneumonia, K-Mac was 26-48 from deep and averaged 32.7 ppg. In the last four, he is just 10-27 from deep and averaging 11 ppg.

12. UCLA (10-2): This Bruins team is still very young, but they look like they are probably the class of the Pac-10. Jrue Holiday has been as good as advertised, but the rest of this freshman class has been a bit underwhelming. The Bruins still need someone to step up in the post to go along side Alfred Aboya, but neither J'Mison Morgan or Drew Gordan has been up to the task this season. The Bruins got a boost when Josh Shipp returned from his thumb injury, but him missing two games may have actually benefited UCLA. In his absence, Micheal Roll found his shooting stroke, averaging 20.5 ppg and shooting 9-12 from distance.

13. Baylor (9-1): A bit of a bold statement putting the Bears this high, especially since they have been somewhat inconsistent thus far. But they do own a win over Arizona State and their only loss is to Wake. If possible, the Baylor back court has been better than expected. They are all averaging at least 10.9 ppg, led by Curtis Jerrells at 17.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, and 6.3 apg. The one thing that needs to happen is Kevin Rogers must start to play better. He is currently averaging just 10.7 ppg and 7.1 rpg, his lowest totals since he was a freshman. The Big XII's top teams have great interior play, and in order for Baylor to be considered in that group (with a #13 ranking, I am putting them in that conversation), Rogers must be tougher inside.

14. Arizona State (9-1): By now you should know about James Harden. He has been as good as anyone in the country this season averaging 23.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, and 4.2 apg. Jeff Pendergraph is still his same old self, averaging 12.6 ppg and 7.4 rpg. But one of the biggest reasons that the Sun Devils will be challenging UCLA for the Pac-10 crown is the play of Ty Abbott and Rihards Kuksiks. Abbott has been a solid #3 scoring option again this season, although his shooting numbers are a bit down. Kuksiks, on the other hand, has picked up right where he left off last season. He averaged 10 ppg over the last nine games for the Sun Devils, and this season he is averaging 10.7 ppg while shooting 50% (32-64) from deep. If Abbott and Kuksiks continue to be threats from the wing, it will open up much more space for Pendergraph and Harden to work.

15. Georgetown (9-1): I'm still not sure what to make of this Georgetown team. Their only win of significance is against Memphis (a win that is looking less and less impressive). I think I am finally able to accept that Greg Monroe is not going to be a superstar just yet. What he is going to be right now is a solid player that will fit into the Georgetown system, provide match-up problems on the offensive end, and can make plays defensively. I have been impressed, however, with the play of point guard Chris Wright, who is showing everybody why he was a Mickey D's all-american in high school. We will know who Georgetown is after their next seven games: @ UConn, Pitt, @ Notre Dame, Providence, Syracuse, @ Duke, West Virginia.

16. Purdue (9-2): I think people over hyped Purdue in the pre-season. As good as these guys are, they still basically rely on the play of three sophomores - Robbie Hummel, E'Twaun Moore, and JaJuan Johnson. They are an excellent defensive team, holding their opponents to 56 ppg and 35% shooting. A big boost for the Boilermakers has been the play of big man Nemanja Calasan. Johnson is good inside, but his slender frame keeps him from really being able to bang on the block. Calasan, who stands 6'9" and 250 lb, gives Purdue some muscle on the interior. Right now, the most important thing for Purdue is to get Keaton Grant to start playing at the same level he did last season. His scoring (11.2 ppg to 7.8 ppg) and shooting (44% from deep to 31% from deep) are both way down this year.

17. Ohio State (9-1): Getting blown out by West Virginia at home did not look good, but I still think the Buckeyes are the third best team in the Big Ten. BJ Mullens has been a bit of a flop thus far, but Thad Matta should be ecstatic with the play of Evan Turner. Turner had a fairly promising freshman campaign, but has come on strong as a sophomore, averaging a team high 16.2 ppg to go along with 7.2 rpg. He is a slasher, and at 6'7", he is long and athletic, which makes him some what of a match-up nightmare. Ohio State will miss David Lighty, who is out for about another month with a broken foot. The biggest thing they need to do is come out focused. In the loss to the Mountaineers, they had no energy and could never seem to get into a rhythm on either side of the ball.

18. Louisville (9-2): I really want to move Louisville up this list after their win over UAB, but I am still not convinced they are more than just an average team right now. Here is the thing with Louisville. They have a great front court with Samardo Samuels, Earl Clark, and Terrence Williams. The issue is their back court. Can they knock down shots? Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles, both shooting well over 40% from deep, have been of late. The key to this team is what kind of three's are they going to be taking, because 11 games into the season it is obvious they are going to rely heavily on the three-ball. If they are taking open looks off of a kick out, be it from penetration, a post touch, or an offensive rebound, they are going to knock down a good percentage. They struggle when they force three's early in a possession, off the dribble, or after just swinging the ball around the perimeter.

19. West Virginia (10-2): I have been saying this for a while, but the Mountaineers are one of the more underrated teams in the country right now. Yes, they are going to be missing Joe Mazzulla for a while with his shoulder injury, but Truck Bryant has filled in very handily, averaging 11.3 ppg. WVU is very long and very athletic, at times fielding a team where Da'Sean Butler (6'6"), Alex Ruoff (6'6"), and Devin Ebanks (6'9") are all playing on the perimeter. That length and athleticism allows Huggy Bear's squad to do two things very well - defend and hit the offensive glass. They are not the best shooting team in the world, but when they can get easy baskets in transition and off of o-boards, they are a really dangerous team.

20. Minnesota (12-0): I am still not really sure what to make of this Minnesota team. Are they for real? A convincing win over Louisville on a neutral court says that they are. The Gophers have been successful because of their balance. They have eight guys that average between 5.8 ppg and 13 ppg, 11 guys averaging double digits in minutes played, and had eight different guys start. The are solid defensively and play together on the offensive end (assists on more than two-thirds of their field goals). We get to see who they really are this week and they host both Michigan State and Ohio State.

21. Clemson (12-0): For the last four seasons, Clemson has come storming out of the gates to win at least their first ten games. So seeing Clemson sitting at 12-0 is not a surprise. But is this Tiger team going to fall off come ACC play? The loss of Cliff Hammonds has been nullified thanks to the play of Demontez Stitt. KC Rivers is scoring in bunches, Trevor Booker has been a double double machine, and the Tigers are still pressing you all over the court. With Virginia Tech and Miami fading, I think the Tigers will be in a battle with Florida State for that fourth spot in the ACC.

22. Tennessee (8-2): Tennessee is the best team in the SEC this year, but the SEC is way down. I just see the Vols as way too inconsistent. They have beaten Marquette, but were blown out by Temple and struggled to hold off an under manned Belmont team. I know Bruce Pearl is trying to run his system, but at some point you need to realize that your team is what it is. They have a lot of fantastic athletes that should be trying to get to the rim and finish instead of settling for tough three's. The two x-factors on this team are Wayne Chism and Bobby Maze. Maze is the only point guard on the roster that is eligible, and the Vols need him to be a creator. Wayne Chism can be very good when he wants to be (see his 26 and 11 against Marquette), but he also has a tendency to disappear on the offensive end.

23. Michigan (9-2): By now, you should know about John Beilein's system, and how it has been so effective for Michigan. You should also know about Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. Both have been playing factastic basketball for the Woverines this year, averaging a combined 36.2 ppg. The guy that is going to make the difference for this team is Laval Lucas-Perry, a 6'3" scorer that is going to be so effective playing in Beilein's system because he can shoot it.

24. Florida State (12-2): I really like this Seminoles team, who already have wins over Cal, Cincinnati, and Florida. They have a ton of long, athletic big guys that they can run at you. The best of the bunch is probably freshman Chris Singleton, who has been a bit inconsistent but is averaging 10 ppg. They still have Toney Douglas, who is one of the best scorers in the ACC. But the biggest reason I see Florida State making a run to the tourney is that Derwin Kitchen is now eligible. By no means do I think Kitchen ends up being an all-ACC guy, but he provides some much needed back court relief for Douglas because he is able to penetrate and create on his own.


25. Butler (10-1): The Bulldogs lost so much to graduation (namely AJ Graves and Mike Green), everyone kind of expected them to blend in with the rest of the Horizon League this year. But Brad Stevens has taken this team, which starts three freshman and a sophomore, and pushed back into the national picture after a three-point road loss to Ohio State and a road win over Xavier. Matt Howard is the Bulldogs leading scorer and rebounder at 13.4 ppg and 7.5 rpg, but two freshman (Gordan Hayward and Shelvin Mack) have really stepped up and been impressive.

Notable Absences: Memphis, Xavier, Villanova, Marquette Continue reading...

BIAH Season Update: Postseason Awards Pt. II

Believe it or not, we are now about a quarter of the way through the regular season. With the pre-season tournaments in the past and conference season on the horizon, things are starting to slow down a bit as most schools are getting bogged down with finals. We at BIAH have had a chance to see all of the top teams and players in the country take the court, so here are each of our writers early, but educated, opinions on the Final Four, postseason awards, and the top 25.

Rob Dauster

Player of the Year:
Stephen Curry, Davidson

Playing on a team with at most one other high-major talent, Curry has led the Wildcats to an 8-1 record and wins over NC State and West Virginia. You know what you are going to get with Davidson. You know the ball is going to be in Curry's hands and you know he is going to be taking a majority of the shots (and damn near every single important one). He is averaging 31.3 ppg, 6.8 apg, and 2.9 apg, and while his turnover numbers are a bit high (3.6 per), it is to be expected when you play as many minutes as and have the ball in your hands as much as Curry does. Only one team has held Curry below 27 points in 9 games this season (Loyola MD), and they held Curry scoreless by playing a triangle-and-two ... with both of the two on Curry. If you ignore that game, Curry is averaging a shade under 36 ppg.

But it is more than just numbers with him. No matter how poorly Curry is playing, no matter how off he is shooting the ball, you just know that he is going to wake up when you need a big shot. Take the West Virginia game as an example. Curry played just about his worst game as a collegian. He was 5-22 from the floor (1-13 from deep) with eight turnovers as the clock ticked past five minutes to go in the game. West Virginia played flawless defense on him, getting him out of rhythm and making him have to force things. But in the last five minutes, Curry scored 13 points, including three three's (would have been four but he hit a pull-up with his toe over the line). Two of those were incredibly tough threes on the move with a hand in his face. And even though he was ice cold throughout, you just knew he was going to hit them. That's why he is the player of the year at this point. Not because he makes those plays, not because you expect him too, but because you would be surprised if he didn't.

First Team

Ty Lawson, UNC
James Harden, Arizona State
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Jordan Hill, Arizona
Hasheem Thabeet, UConn

Second Team

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
Jerel McNeal, Marquette
Kyle Singler, Duke
Sam Young, Pitt

Third Team

Eric Maynor, VCU
Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga
AJ Abrams, Texas
Taj Gibson, USC
Tony Gaffney, UMass

I know what you are going to say. Tony Gaffney over Tyler Hansbrough and Luke Harangody? By the end of the year, there is no doubt that Psycho T and 'Gody will be all-americans, more than likely knocking Thabeet and Hill down to the 2nd team. But with Hansbrough's injury and Harangody's illness, and their subsequent missed time, I just simply do not think it fair to reward them at this point. And Gaffney has been as good as anyone in the country. He is averaging 12.4 ppg, 12.9 rpg (2nd in the country to Griffin), 5.4 bpg (2nd in the country), and 2.4 spg. He's done it against pretty good competition as well - Memphis (16, 19, 5), Kansas (6, 13, 4), Boston College (15, 18, 9) and Holy Cross (17, 11, 8).


Coach of the Year:
John Beilein, Michigan

We touched on this about a couple weeks ago, but John Beilein may be the most underappreciated coach in the country. Everywhere he has been, he has taken a struggling program and made it relevant. Nothing is changing this year, as this Michigan team has gone from a 10-22 campaign in '07-'08 to a 7-2 start with wins over Duke and UCLA. Beilein has always been a system coach that needs his type of player - either you can throw a back door pass and hit an open three or you can't. That's the offense and the style he coached at every one of his stops. That hasn't changed now that he is at Michigan, but he has added a few wrinkles to fit his roster, and those changes have greatly improved this team. The biggest one is that he is allowing Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims a little more freedom when it comes to penetrating and making plays. These adjustments, and the fact that he has his guys buying into the system, have vaulted Michigan into the conversation for the Big Ten title.


Freshman of the Year:
Sylven Landesberg, Virginia

I know the trendy picks (Greg Monroe, Tyreke Evans) and I know the sleeper picks (Al-Farouq Aminu, Chris Singleton), but I think this kid has been the most impressive. This was not an overly talented freshman class, and most of the newcomers have slid into their roles along side stars. Not Landesberg. UVA has lost JR Reynolds and Sean Singletary the last two seasons, and outside of Landesberg does not really have anyone that can score this year. As a result, the Mickey D's all-american has been forced into the starring role and has faired pretty well. On the season, Landesberg is averaging 19.0 ppg and 5.7 rpg, although the Cavs have only gotten off to a 3-3 start. Landesberg is not a great shooter or a great athlete, but he is a smart player that is crafty with the ball and that has an excellent mid-range game. Continue reading...

BIAH Season Update: Postseason Awards Pt. I

Believe it or not, we are now about a quarter of the way through the regular season. With the pre-season tournaments in the past and conference season on the horizon, things are starting to slow down a bit as most schools are getting bogged down with finals. We at BIAH have had a chance to see all of the top teams and players in the country take the court, so here are each of our writers early, but educated, opinions on the Final Four, postseason awards, and the top 25.

Ross Weingarten

Player of the Year:
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma

Despite not scoring a field goal in their last victory against Utah, Blake Griffin has been absolutely phenomenal for the Sooners so far this season. He is perhaps the most versatile player in the country, able to overpower his opponents down in the paint, but also lead the fast break and step out and make jump shots. He is a double-double machine, and despite coming back for his sophomore season and facing the highest expectations, Griffin has exceeded them. He's averaging 23 points and 15 rebounds a game, and Oklahoma has emerged as a dark-horse Final Four contender. It will be interesting to see how Griffin responds to increased double-teams, particularly in rugged conference play. If Oklahoma plays deep into March, and Griffin continues his astronomical production, this will be the third straight season in which the best player in the country is a forward from the Big 12 (sorry, Tyler Hansbrough, Michael Beasley was the best player in the country last year).

First Team

Stephen Curry, Davidson
Ty Lawson. UNC
James Harden, Arizona St.
Sam Young, Pittburgh
Hasheem Thabeet, UConn

Second Team

AJ Abrams, Texas
Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
Nick Calathes, Florida
Kyle Singler, Duke
Tyler Smith, Tennessee

Third Team
Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga
Sherron Collins, Kansas
Grevis Vasquez, Maryland
Dante Cunningham, Villanova
Dejuan Blair, Pittsburgh


Coach of the Year:
Sean Miller, Xavier

It's a little early to start predicting coach of the year, as so many teams have sterling records right now. Obviously, names like Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun and Jamie Dixon will be in the mix all year long. But I'm going to go with Miller, who has transformed Xavier into a national power. After taking the Musketeers to the Elite Eight last year, this year's edition might be even better. They have a great win over Memphis, and if they can beat Duke next week, have to be considered a serious Final Four contender. Keep in mind that Miller has done this without any major national recruits, and playing in a town that is still dominated by Cincinatti (even if the Bearcats haven't been relevant on a national level for a few years). Sean Miller is one of the best coaches in America, and should be the favorite for Coach of the Year is the Musketeers keep winning.


Freshman of the Year:
Greg Monroe, Georgetown

Some people might be surprised by this pick, as Monroe's stock dropped a bit at the end of his high school career and he hasn't gotten much national publicity so far this season. After arriving at Georgetown as a heralded recruit, Monroe has flown under the radar, but he is playing terrific basketball. While his statistics are solid (13 ppg, 6 rpg), it's the way that he changes Georgetown's team that makes him so valuable. Last year, with the plodding Roy Hibbert in the middle, the Hoyas had no choice but to play slow. While their style was effective, it was also predictable, and they had a relatively disappointing year after their Final Four run in '06. Now that Hibbert is gone and Monroe mans the middle, Georgetown is a much more versatile team, able to grind out wins like they used to, but also able to push the ball and play fast. Monroe is a terrific rebounder, but he's best when he has the ball, as he can score in a lot of different ways and is very good and finding the open man. Samardo Samuels of Louisville is scoring more points and getting more publicity, but the Cardinals don't yet have a signature win. Georgetown's victory over a very athletic Memphis team proves that the Hoyas are for real. Monroe is the biggest reason why. Continue reading...

BIAH Season Update: Final Four Picks Pt. III

Believe it or not, we are now about a quarter of the way through the regular season. With the pre-season tournaments in the past and conference season on the horizon, things are starting to slow down a bit as most schools are getting bogged down with finals. We at BIAH have had a chance to see all of the top teams and players in the country take the court, so here are each of our writers early, but educated, opinions on the Final Four, postseason awards, and the top 25.

ROB DAUSTER

North Carolina: Surprised? Doubt it. Explanation? None needed.

Connecticut: A little bit of a homer on this pick, but I think UConn is the most talented team in the country without a color named after them. The Huskies looked so impressive in wins over Miami FL and Wisconsin in the Paradise Jam. And they still haven't played a game with Stanley Robinson, who will be back on the court for the second semester. By now you should know what the Huskies are going to throw at you. Terrific man-to-man defense in the half court, a Calhoun-patented 2-2-1 press that is working as good as it ever as. Muscle and shot-blocking inside. Quick guards that love to penetrate and to get out and run the floor. Tenacious work on the offensive glass. But the x-factor for this team will be freshman Kemba Walker. He is one of the quickest guys in the country and a terror on the defense end, creating turnovers and turning them into easy points. But he still makes some freshman mistakes - gambling too much for steals, forcing it on the offensive end, turning the ball over. If he learns to harness his athletic ability, he already has the mindset and the toughness needed to be an excellent player at this level.

There are two huge red flags with the Huskies, and both are legitimate concerns. For one, they have a tendency to play down to their opponents (a la against Buffalo and La Salle), which is more an issue of focus and intensity. That shouldn't be a problem once the tournament rolls around. The other is that no one on this team besides Jeff Adrien (who was a freshman role player on the team that lost to George Mason in the Elite 8) has ever won a post season game. No Big East wins, no NIT wins, and thanks to San Diego and AJ Price's ACL, no NCAA wins. Can you really put your faith in a group of guys with zero post-season success to all-of-a-sudden figure it out and make a Final Four run?

Gonzaga: I really like the 'Zags this year. They remind me of the Jayhawks from last season in that they have six guys that can go for 20 on any given night and can get you a bucket when you need it. There are two main reasons that I think the 'Zags put it all together this year - Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heytvelt. Both are seniors that have had a bit up an up-and-down career. The knock on Pargo is that he has always been able to score and create, but that he turned the ball over too much and that he couldn't run a team. Well, he has changed that perception this year. Pargo has been fantastic. He has averaged 7.0 apg through the first five, while only turning the ball over eight times (a 4.5-1 ratio). He also has picked his spots to be a scorer, as seen in the Tennessee game. He distributes the ball to his talented teammates, but when the 'Zags really need a bucket, he is still able to break down a defender and score. Heytvelt was a victim of immaturity and injuries while at Gonzaga. He is immensely talented, but just could not stay on the court. This year, he has taken over the role of leader. He is the guy that will pull a teammate out of a scrap and calm him down (as seen at halftime of the Tennessee game) where he used to be the one getting into the tussles. Oh, and he is averaging 15 and 7. With those two, shooters like Micah Downs and Steven Gray, playmakers like Austin Daye and Matt Bouldin, and some toughness off the bench in Ira Brown and Demetri Goodson, I see the 'Zags finally making it to the Final Four.

Syracuse: There is just something about this team that I really like. Jonny Flynn might be the best point guard in the country not named Ty Lawson. Paul Harris is still the old do-it-all-Paul, but he now has a 15 footer that you have to defend. Arinze Onuaku is a horse inside. Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins have been knocking down three's on the perimeter, which has spread the defense and opened up space in the paint, and Devendorf has provided another player that can create off the bounce for himself and teammates. And guys like Kristoff Ongenaet, Rick Jackson, and Kris Joseph provide enough size, athleticism, hustle, and versatility that they can match-up with just about anyone. But the biggest change for the Orange is that they are no longer playing strictly a zone. They will get out and defend you man-to-man, and Flynn has created a lot of turnovers and easy baskets that way. The 'Cuse have been a bit inconsistent defensively, which seems to be an issue of focus more than anything (again, doubt that will be a problem in the tournament), but the biggest issue is that they do not utilize Onuaku inside. I have faith that Boeheim will get those problems fixed by the end of the year.

Outside of UNC, I think that more than any year I can remember, this season is wide open. I legitimately think that there are 20-25 teams that can realistically hope to reach the Final Four. Here are the others I considered:

Pitt, Louisville, Oklahoma - Big inside, not enough perimeter shooting.
Texas - Really like this team and tough to leave off, but they just don't have that look yet.
Purdue, Duke, Notre Dame - Not enough inside.
Michigan State, UCLA - Will be in the conversation by the end of the year.

Sleepers:
Wake Forest - I'm officially on the Jeff Teague bandwagon.
Arizona State - James Harden is really, really good. Too bad he's plays on the west coast.
Baylor - Big result that no one noticed: the uptempo Bears went into Wazzu and knocked off the Cougars 58-52, playing at the WSU pace and shooting 40%.
Tennessee - Not really a sleeper, but if this team gets rolling, watch out. Continue reading...

BIAH Season Update: Final Four Picks Pt. I

Believe it or not, we are now about a quarter of the way through the regular season. With the pre-season tournaments in the past and conference season on the horizon, things are starting to slow down a bit as most schools are getting bogged down with finals. We at BIAH have had a chance to see all of the top teams and players in the country take the court, so here are each of our writers early, but educated, opinions on the Final Four, postseason awards, and the top 25.

ROSS WEINGARTEN

North Carolina: Everything that can be said about this Tar Heel team has already been said: dominant, deep, unbeatable. I'll add one more: Wow. I have watched a lot of basketball in my time. Being a huge Duke fan makes this even harder to say. At this point, I can't remember a team with so few apparent weaknesses than UNC. They are athletic, talented and deep. Roy Williams is one of the best coaches in the game, Tyler Hansbrough is the best player, Ty Lawson the best point guard and that's just the beginning. People have raised questions about their defense, but I believe that after getting embarrassed by Kansas in last year's final four, UNC has enough motivation to buckle down on the defensive end when they need to. The ACC is better this year than it has been the last few, with Duke, Wake Forest and Miami all very good teams, and others with the potential to surprise people. But I'd be shocked if Carolina doesn't walk through the ACC and all the way to the Final Four. I just want everyone to know how much it hurts to write that.

Wow.

After UNC, there are a number of teams that have the talent and toughness to make the Final Four. However, all of these teams have serious questions that need to be answered before the second half of the season if they are to make deep runs into the tournament. While there are no more clear favorites to make the final weekend of the season, I'll pick three that I think will get there.

Gonzaga: The Zags are for real. In the past, Gonzaga has had talented teams that simply weren't tough enough or defensive-minded enough to make it to the Final Four. I believe this team is different. Jeremy Pargo is an extremely smart point guard and the catalyst for this team. Against Tennessee, he was solid but unspectacular for the first 35 minutes. Then, at the end of a close game against a very good Volunteers team, he took over, scoring at will, handling the press and making free throws. When you add Austin Daye, Josh Heytvelt, Matt Bouldin and Micah Downs, you get one of the most talented teams in the country. If Steven Gray is making his threes like he did against the Vols, watch out. Coach Mark Few has done a great job scheduling a very tough out-of-conference schedule to get the Zags ready for the tournament. I believe this is the year they break through and make the Final Four.

Pittsburgh: Year in and year out, Pitt's teams seem to be identical. Really tough, great defensively and boring to watch. This year is no exception, although I think they have a bit more talent than normal. Sam Young is one of the best players in the country, able to use his quickness and athleticism to go around bigger players and his size to go over smaller ones. Dejuan Blair had a great freshman year and looks even quicker and in better shape this year. Although undersized, he's very difficult inside. Most importantly, they have a senior point guard in Levance Fields that knows what needs to be done to win. He's a terrific ball-handler and defender and can score when asked. Throw in the characteristic toughness of all Jamie Dixon teams and I think Pitt will play into April.

Oklahoma: This is my dark-horse pick. "But Ross, you love Duke. Why not pick the Blue Devils?" Good question, and it pains me not to. But against Michigan, they faced an athletic team in a hostile environment and looked over-matched. It's the same old story: Duke has trouble with really athletic teams and when they are not making their threes, they can be in for a long night. True, this Duke team is different and deeper than in the past, but to be a serious final four contender, I think Gerald Henderson needs to become a star (he coasts too much right now) and Lance Thomas needs to emerge as a 30-minute-a-game big man. That might happen. But it might not.

So that leads me to the Sooners. Everyone knows about Blake Griffin, and the hype is real. He's the best player in the country, strong as an ox but able to lead the break and step out and make jumpshots. There's nothing he can't do and will probably be the first pick in next year's NBA draft. But the Sooners are more than just one guy. Taylor Griffin, Blake's brother, is a very solid player, Cade Davis is one of the best shooters in the game, and Willie Warren is an emerging star (at least when he learns what a good shot is). They already have solid wins against Purdue, Davidson and USC. I think this pick will surprise people, but a great player can take a team very far in March, and I think the Sooners will be no exception.

Writers Note: Rob will ask, why not UConn? The answer is because I hate UConn. And I don't much like Rob. Plus, they only beat Buffalo by 4. And they don't have great shooters. That's why.

Others I considered: Texas, Louisville, UCLA, Georgetown and Notre Dame. All great teams, but I think not quite Final Four caliber. Yet. Continue reading...