NBA Draft Profiles: Tristan Thompson, Texas

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Stats: 13.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg (3.0 off), 2.4 bpg, 48.7% FT, 54.6% FG

Age: 20, freshman

Size:

• Listed: 6'9", 230 lb
• Official: 6'7.5" (no shoes), 6'8.75" (with shoes), 7'1.25" (wingspan), 9'0.5" (reach), 227 lb

Strengths: Tristan Thompson is about as raw offensively as big men get, but what makes him a potential lottery pick is how hard he plays the game. Thompson has a terrific motor. He's always attacking the offensive glass -- seeing him get five or six offensive rebounds was common, he grabbed 10 against Texas A&M -- and was impressive moving without the ball. The majority of the points that he scored this season came off of catch-and-finish situations, be it a put back dunk or a lay-in off of a dump down. Thompson is a bit undersized for the power forward position at 6'8", but he makes up for it with a massive wingspan and above-average explosiveness. He is strong enough to hold his position in the post on both ends of the floor, but still needs to add some muscle and mass to his upper body to help himself finish through contact. Thompson is also a terrific shotblocker and will only become a better defender as he learns to better position himself on the block.

Weaknesses: Thompson is far from a finished product on the offensive end of the floor. He's so raw, in fact, that there is some debate about just how good of a prospect he is offensively. We'll start with the worst -- Thompson cannot shoot the ball. He rarely steps out to take a jump shot. And while he is one of the best players in this draft at getting to the foul line, he shoots an abysmal 48.7% from the charity stripe. Thompson's back-to-the-basket game also is going to require quite a bit of refining. He doesn't have a go-to move in the post, far too often settling for fadeaway jumpers with a hand in his face. For him to be more than just a rotational player in the NBA, he is either going to have to develop a consistent post game or be capable of knocking down a 15-18 footer when he is left open. Thompson's defensive rebounding is another area of his game that is lacking. He has a bad habit of going after the ball instead of boxing a man out. That will hurt him quite a bit at the next level.

Comparisons:

• Best Case Scenario: The two comparisons that I have seen the most have been Paul Millsap and Tyrus Thomas. I'm not sure I love either of them. Thompson doesn't have the same kind of strength and wide body that Millsap does, and Thomas is not the kind of hard-worker that Thompson appears to be. The role that Millsap and Thomas play, however, is probably equivalent to Thompson's upside. A part-time starter that averages around 12-15 points and seven or eight rebounds.


• Worst Case Scenario: Joel Anthony. There are some things that Thompson is always going to be able to do on a basketball court regardless of the level that he plays at -- he'll always be able to get to the offensive glass, he'll always be able to defend, and he'll always play hard. That will earn him, at the very least, a spot in a rotation for a while. But if his offensive ability doesn't develop, his upside is severely limited.

Outlook: Thompson has some skills that will, eventually, translate well to the NBA. He is going to be able to defend and rebound. He has the tools, the motor, and, most importantly, the desire to succeed in those areas. But Thompson has a long way to go offensively. His shooting motion is likely to be completely overhauled by his NBA coaches, his post game needs to be expanded, and he could stand to use some added muscle in his upper body. It's not likely that Thompson is going to be able to see many minutes immediately until he addresses -- or at the least begins to address -- those issues. What the future holds for Thompson as a basketball player is unclear, but what is known is that he has enough potential to warrant a late lottery pick. Whether or not Thompson fulfills his potential is going to be up two him.

Draft Range: Mid to Late Lottery

And the experts say...

• Chad Ford: "Thompson needs plenty of work. Another year at Texas would really help his game. But his draft stock? I don't think it will ever be higher. Teams are looking for tough, athletic, versatile forwards. Thompson's work on the offensive boards alone should get him into the lottery. Right now, folks are willing to overlook the flaws in his game. If the flaws persisted over another year at Texas, I'm not sure they'd do it again."


• Draft Express: "His development could follow any number of trajectories from end-of-bench rotation player to NBA starter, from Carl Landry to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. His ceiling is arguably higher than both, however, if further develops his post skills and re-tools his jumper. The said, such development is never a given, particularly with raw post players who are two-years older than most of their classmates, as is the case with Thompson. Ultimately, however, it is clear why Tristan Thompson is a likely lottery pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. His size, athleticism, and energetic style of play on both ends of the court should earn him rotation minutes early and his potential is certainly enticing looking to the future. Whether or not he achieves this significant potential is unknown, but even now, there is clearly a niche in the NBA for Tristan Thompson."


• Swish Scout: "Athletic, but undersized, talent in the paint with great post awareness, ball moves, motor, and toughness. Thompson has tremendous defensive potential and rebounding skill, but lacks a reliable face up jumper and is very inconsistent on a night to night basis."

Highlights: