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Stats: 20.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.3 bpg
Age: 22, senior
Size:
- Listed: 6'9", 220 lb
- Official: 6'9" (no shoes), 6'10" (with shoes), 7'2" (wingspan), 8'11.5" (reach), 220 lb
Strengths: There is a lot to like about Johnson as a prospect. For starters, he is a terrific athlete. His vertical is a cool 38", he's quick for a man his size, and he can get out and run the floor. Throw in the fact that he is a legitimate 6'10" with a 7'2" wingspan, and Johnson has the kind of tools that you look for in a power forward. Offensively, Johnson has developed a lot in the past six years. As a high school sophomore, he was still on JV. As a freshman in college, he wasn't much more than a dunker. Now? He's got a very solid finesse post game, using his length and lift to make his jump hook and turn around jumper unblockable. He's not an overpowering post presence, but he was quite effective this season. Johnson has also developed his perimeter game to the point that he is now a three point threat. If you close out long on his three, he's able to use one or two dribbles to step into a mid-range pull-up, although he is worlds better going right than he is left.
Weaknesses: Johnson has probably put on 20 pounds of muscle since he was a freshman, but he probably needs another 20-30 pounds. He's a naturally skinny guy with narrow shoulders and a lanky build, which means there is really only so much strength and weight that he is going to be able to put on. That lack of strength hurts him the most on the defensive end of the floor, where he is susceptible to being backed down by stronger opponents. Its not as big of an issue on the offensive end of the floor thanks to his length and shooting touch. The issues he will have defensively guarding NBA power forwards will be his achilles heel, but there are other aspects of his game that can use work. He needs to become a more consistent shooter from the perimeter, making himself a viable pick-and-pop option. He could also stand to improve his handle.
Comparisons:
- Best Case Scenario: A poor man's Chris Bosh. Johnson's offensive repertoire is coming around. He's still a developing player -- he improved every season that he was in college and was so uncoordinated and skinny that he was on JV as a high school junior -- and should continue to improve with time. I'm not sure he will ever be quite as good as Bosh is, however. Maybe a more athletic Troy Murphy is a more fitting comparison.
- Worst Case Scenario: Hakim Warrick. Solid energy post player off the bench, but never seemed to really reach his potential or fully develop a reliable offensive game. JJ has a similar build as Warrick, who largely gets by on athleticism, but while Johnson is probably more refined than Warrick, he should be able to at least be as productive as him.
Draft Range: Late 1st to Early 2nd
And the experts say...
- Chad Ford: "Johnson has been a bit of an enigma for me the past two years. He's always been long and is very athletic. He's got the size and leaping ability of a NBA player, but lacked the strength to play in the post at the next level. He's coming off a great senior season and over the past two years he developed a very solid perimeter game and even started shooting 3s this year. That may ultimately be a critical transition for him. While Johnson continues to add muscle, he's a bit slight for the 4 position. However, as he continued to show in Chicago this week, he gets great elevation on his jump shot and was showing the ability to get his shot off against anyone. He could be a Hakim Warrick type player at the next level."
- Draft Express: "Overall, Johnson's improving perimeter game and high release point on his finesse post moves should allow him to have a reasonable amount of success offensively at the next level playing for the right team, as long as they are willing to live with his deficiencies as a rebounder and post-defender. His lack of strength and physical toughness looks to be his Achilles heel on both ends of the court, preventing him from being a legitimate post presence offensively and making him a liability as a defender and rebounder. These will likely be the main question marks he'll need to address moving forward, and could be the difference in whether he sticks in the NBA or not."
- Swish Scout: "Veteran post player with an improving inside-out game, excellent shot blocking ability, and solid post play. Badly needs to improve his upper body strength and hone his rebounding skills, but the 2011 Big Ten Player of The Year is as NBA ready for a post player there is in the 2011 Draft."
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