Wednesday, May 11, 2011

What kind of season should we expect from Jordan Taylor next year?

The guys over at the Cracked Sidewalks, a Marquette hoops blog, put together a post that stat-nerds are sure to enjoy -- breaking down who the most valuable players in the country were a year ago.

Using some impressive math and manipulation of advance statistics, the result ended up being Jordan Taylor over the likes of Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette, and Charles Jenkins. And if you read this blog -- or have any sense of tempo-free statistics -- than this result probably is not as surprising as it seems on first glance.

Taylor put up some incredibly impressive numbers a year ago. He averaged 18.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, and 4.7 apg while shooting 42.9% from beyond the arc and turning the ball over just 42 times in 34 games despite being the primary ball handler for 36.5 mpg. And Taylor did all of that despite playing for a team that averaged the fewest number of possessions per game in the country. In other words, he had numbers as impressive as any player in the country at his position despite having the fewest number off offensive opportunities to amass those stats.


Despite the incredible season that Taylor had, the only time that his name really became nationally known was when he scored 27 points and handed out seven assists while orchestrating the Badgers' second half comeback against then-undefeated Ohio State.

So while Taylor was the most valuable player in the country a year ago, there is a very strong argument to make that he was also the most underrated. How often does that happen?

Next season, the Badgers figure to look very, very different. Gone are three key players -- Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil, and Tim Jarmusz. Leuer was one of the best face-up fours in the country a year ago, and Nankivil was incredibly valuable because of his ability to knock down perimeter jumpers and execute in pick-and-pop situations.

So how good will Taylor be next season?

Generally speaking, when a player that is incredibly efficient is forced to take over a larger role in the offense due to graduation or early entry, that player is expected to have a break out season. But in Bo Ryan's grind-it-out, half-court system, how much room for improvement is there in Taylor?

He already plays more than 90% of the available minutes. He already is the guy who has the ball in his hands in late-game situations when Wisconsin needs a bucket. Hell, with the season he had a year ago, Taylor may have already been the best point guard in the country.

There isn't much more room for Taylor to improve.

In fact, there is a legitimate argument to be made that Taylor will regress next season. Leuer and Nankivil's ability to shoot from the perimeter opened up a lot of space in the paint for Taylor. He's not an overly explosive guard, but he is very strong. He can finish through other point guards, but he's not necessarily the kind of player that can challenge 6'10" shotblockers. Can he continue to control and orchestrate games with the increased defensive attention he will no-doubt receive?

The key will be the development of some of Wisconsin's underclassmen, something that has become a given for teams coached by Ryan. Can Mike Bruesewitz provide an inside-outside front court threat? Will John Gasser improve enough to become an effective piece to the puzzle offensively? Will Ryan Evans ever develop any offensive skill?

There should no longer be a question as to who the most valuable player in the country was a year ago.

But Taylor is not the kind of talent that can shine on his own. He thrives being the leader in a team setting.

Whether or not Bo Ryan can work his magic and turn the Badger bench into an effective supporting cast will determine just how good the Wisconsin is next season.

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