NBA Draft Profiles: Josh Selby, Kansas

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Stats: 7.9 ppg, 2.2 apg, 2.2 rpg

Age: 20, freshman

Size:

• Listed: 6'2", 183 lb
• Official: 6'1.75" (no shoes), 6'3" (shoes), 6'5.25" (wingspan), 8'2" (standing reach), 195 lb

Strengths: Its almost unfair to rate Selby on his freshman season. His reputation in high school -- that he started to rebuild at Impact Basketball in Las Vegas -- was as an explosive athlete and big-time scorer. He excels at getting to the basket and can finish with authority above the rim. He's got a terrific first step to get by his defender and the body control in the paint to slide around, and off of, help side defenders. He's at his best when he has the ball in his hands and the opportunity to create offensively. The problem? Selby was forced to play off the ball this season in an offense centered on the play of the Jayhawk big men. He did prove competent as a spot-up shooter, hitting 36.9% of his threes, but an ankle injury midway through Big 12 play limited his explosiveness and thus his effectiveness. He averaged just 3.9 ppg in the 13 games after missing three in early February.

Weaknesses: Selby is not a point guard. Some don't even consider him a combo-guard at this point in his career. While he did average 2.2 apg in limited minutes as a playmaker this past season, Selby's strength isn't as a creator for others, its as a creator for his own shot. At just 6'3", is he big enough to play as a primary scorer? Will he ever end up being more than a flash-in-the-pan off the bench?

Comparisons:

• Best Case Scenario: One name that has been thrown out there quite a bit is Monta Ellis. Ellis is a 25 ppg scorer in the NBA, and that may be a stretch for Selby. Perhaps a more realistic best case scenario is a guy like Bobby Jackson, who made a long and productive career out of being a part-time starter and potent scorer on some very good teams. Jeff Teague, Louis Williams, and Aaron Brooks are some other players that have had success is this role.


• Worst Case Scenario: Willie Warren, who flamed out as a sophomore at Oklahoma after being projected in the lottery as a freshman, is the obvious choice here given the skill-set and the red flags. Another name that I've seen thrown out there is DaJuan Wagner, but Wagner's career was rife with injuries which played a big role in his downfall. How about Quincy Douby, the high-scoring guard from Rutgers and former first round pick now playing in China?

Outlook: Selby is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft class. Looking at him from high school and from some of the early draft workouts, Selby has the tools and the ability to score. Players of his ilk are a trend in the NBA right now. But the issue is how much Selby struggled this year at Kansas and the red flags associated with him. Some of his struggles can be explained -- he was suspended for the first nine games for receiving illicit benefits while in high school, he broke his hand before the season started, missed games and missed practice time put him in a bad position rotation wise on a talented team, he played out of position in a less than ideal role and system, and an ankle injury hampered his explosiveness late in the season -- but it doesn't explain the fact that he comes from a troubled background, the rumors that he struggled to get along with teammates, and the fact he couldn't adapt to a system. The question that scouts are going to have to ask with Selby: did he simply catch a series of bad breaks, or is he just another troubled talent?

Draft Range: Its big. If he continues to play well in workouts, its not out of the question that Selby could sneak into the back end of the lottery. But based on his freshman year performance, there are still some mock drafts that have him slotted in the second round.

And the experts say...

• Chad Ford: "I've been doing this for a long time, and after watching what Selby did in the gym the past two days, I think he could be the biggest riser in the draft if he works out well against his obvious competition ... Selby's landing in the lottery isn't out of the question if he outplays those players in workouts. ... I'm not sure if he's a point guard -- he doesn't see the floor particularly well yet, and his decision-making can be questionable -- and at 6-foot-2 he is undersized for the 2. But his quickness and ability to create his own shot come at a premium right now in the NBA, and few can do it better than Selby."


• Draft Express: "In the half-court setting, Selby is a very dangerous scorer when he catches the ball on the move, having an outstanding first step to go along with strong change of direction ability and body control in the lane, making him very dynamic within the flow of the offense. The problem for Selby is this had made up just a small part of his game this season, as he's attacked the basket very infrequently, getting to the line and getting shots in the lane at a poor rate. He averages just 1.7 free throws compared to 7.9 field goal attempts per game, and according to Synergy Sports Technology, in the half-court setting he's attempted 95 jumpers compared to 30 shots around the basket."


• Swish Scout: "Explosive combo guard who attacks the basket with his outstanding quickness, superior ball handling, and finishing ability. Unproven player in the NCAA who will be drafted in the late first round because of potential, but Selby is far from being an NBA ready PG in the league, as he is a ‘shoot first’ combo guard who turns the ball over too often."

Highlights: