For my money, the Missouri Tigers could very well be the biggest question mark in the country heading into the start of March Madness.
I'm not talking about their NCAA Tournament chances. This team is dancing, there is no debate about that.
I'm talking about what they do in the NCAA Tournament.
The Tigers are an intriguing team because of the style that they play. The Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball, as their system is called, relies on high-pressure defense and quick baskets in transition. The Tigers are looking to force you to take a quick shot or to turn the ball over, because once you break their press and take control of the possession, Missouri is a much less effective defensive team.
That pressure is very difficult to prepare for, especially on one day's notice. Combine that with the emergence of Ricardo Ratliffe and Laurence Bowers as threats in the paint and Marcus Denmon's growth into a go-to scorer, and the Tigers have all the potential in the world to be a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament.
But they cannot win away from home.
After losing 69-58 at Nebraska on Tuesday night, Mike Anderson's ball club is just 2-7 away from home this season. Those two wins? At Oregon and at Iowa State. Its puts them into the same boat as teams like Kentucky, Notre Dame, and Illinois. If you can't win away from home, how much trust can be put into your NCAA Tournament chances?
But NCAA Tournament games are not road games. They are played at a neutral site. Does struggling away from home really hurt? Mike DeCourcy did a bit of research of the topic on Monday, and this is what he came up with:Over the past five years, 19 of the 20 Final Four teams had a winning road record. The exception: 2010 Duke, which went 5-5. Among that group, 14 were at least four games over the break-even mark in road games, and eight won at least 80 percent.
The sign of a quality basketball team, the kind of team that can handle raucous environments and high-pressure situations with the game and the season on like line, is one that can win on the road. Playing in someone else's arena in front of another team's fans is not an easy thing to do, and the team's that can come out of that situation victorious are, generally speaking, the better basketball teams.
Consider the teams that struggled on the road. Over that same five-year period, there have been 15 top-40 RPI teams that were three or more games under .500 in road games. Only one advanced to the Sweet 16, and their overall tournament record was 8-15.
So should you write off Missouri?
No. Absoutely not. They are the kind of team that can get on a role and win three or four games. They also have some NCAA Tournament experience, as the juniors and seniors on this team made the 2009 Elite 8.
But when you are picking that Sweet 16 sleeper, keep in mind that Missouri has not proven themselves capable of handling the spotlight or the pressure this year.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
MIssouri loses another road game, this time to Nebraska |
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