Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Early Season Tournament Preview: Ranking the top 10 events

Obviously, the five best weeks of the season occur in March.

But the best non-March week of the year occurs in November. Its called Feast Week. It happens during the Thanksgiving Holiday, and it features what we've come to call the "Early Season Tournaments."

Now, not all the EST's happen during Feast Week. Hell, you may not have heard of all of the EST's that are going on.

Hit the jump for our rankings and previews of the top ten early season tournaments:

Other Tournaments Considered: Las Vegas Invitational, Legends Classic, Chicago Invitational, Hall of Fame Tip-Off, Cancun Challenge, Philly Hoop Group Classic, South Padre Invitational, Great Alaska Shootout

1. CBE Classic

Bracket:


Favorite: Duke

The Blue Devils are the No. 1 team in the country. They are the favorite to win the national title. Of course they are going to be the favorite to win this tournament.

Potential Upset: Marquette over Duke

Yeah, I know. I just picked Duke as a favorite and now I'm saying they could lose. Contradictions galore. But I like Marquette this year and I think they matchup well with the Blue Devils. The Golden Eagles have an underrated back court (Darius Johnson-Odom, Vander Blue, Dwight Buycks, Junior Cadougan) and a couple of versatile bigs (Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler) that can matchup with Kyle Singler. Marquette struggled against Bucknell, but this is a team that will defend and certainly won't back down from the Blue Devils. At the very least, Duke will be in for a fight.

Sleeper: Gonzaga

The Zags are going to be good this season. They will have size and they will be able to defend. Steven Gray has been playing like a WCC player of the year candidate. All told, I would not be surprised if they knocked off two top five teams in Kansas State and Duke and brought home the title.

Why you should watch: Is it not enough that there are three top 15 teams and four tournament teams in this field? Do you need more reason than the potential matchup between No. 1 Duke and No. 3 Kansas State? You do?

Well, I got more. Both Gonzaga and Kansas State have been called overrated this season. People question whether K-State has the supporting cast around Jacob Pullen to be a top five team. Its a valid question, too, as the Wildcats have gotten almost nothing from their front court with Curtis Kelly sitting out. Oddly enough, it was the back court that was the question mark in the preseason, but the guards did all the damage in the Wildcats season-opening win against James Madison.

For the Zags, this is just another opportunity to prove they belong. Like it or not, there are always going to be haters and doubters when discussing Gonzaga. The fact is that they play in a mid-major conference. And while I don't think there is anyone that would consider them a mid-major program, it is an uphill battle that will always be fought. Personally, I think the Zags are going to be better this year than they were last year. Elias Harris is a beast, and Steven Gray is playing like the WCC player of the year thus far. Tune in, and believe.

BIAH Prediction: Duke beats Gonzaga for the title.


2. Maui Invitational

Bracket:


Favorite: Michigan State

Michigan State is easily the second best team in the country. And since Duke isn't playing in the Maui Invitational, its safe to say the Spartans are the favorite.

Potential Upset: Virginia over Washington

Don't laugh. I'm serious. The Cavs have looked pretty good through two games, winning both by 20, including a 24 point beatdown of William & Mary. UVa has two good guard in KT Harrell and Billy Baron and a solid interior presence in Mike Scott. Washington is talented, but they always seem to be an enigma. Migh they not show up in their first game?

Sleeper: Wright State

The Shockers are the favorite in the MVC this season, and if you know anything about college hoops, you know that the best in the MVC usually can compete with the best in the country. Ask Kansas. This is a balanced squad that can really defend. They also have some size inside. UConn is young, and the Shockers will probably be the favorite in that game.

Why you should watch: Because of the (good) chance that Kentucky and Washington square off in the second round. If you forgot, Kentucky and Washington went head-to-head for Terrence Jones this summer. It was a bit dramatic -- Jones initially committed to the Huskies, but didn't sign his letter of intent. There was a phone conversation with Calipari immediately after his commitment, and there were reports he was waivering for a month. Eventually, as we all know, Jones ended up at Kentucky

That caused Isaiah Thomas to tweet this: "I hope we play KENTUCKY nxt yr n the Maui classic. All I gotta say is ITS BOUT TO GO DOWN A BARK over a meow ne day." You think those two fan bases are ready?

BIAH Prediction: Michigan beats Washington in the finals.


3. Coaches vs. Cancer Classic

Bracket:


Favorite: Pitt

The Panthers are as solid of a team as you are going to find. Their back court of Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker are as good as any in the Big East, they have size inside, and they defend.

Potential Upset: Illinois over Pitt

Personally, I think Illinois is ranked low at No. 16. Demetri McCamey is one of the best point guards in the country, and there is talented and scoring at every position in their lineup. Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis will be a tough matchup for the Panther big men.

Sleeper: Maryland?

Honestly, I'm not sure if there is a sleeper in this bracket. I think Texas has a way to go before they are a team that deserves to be ranked, and Maryland's point guard issues are going to be on full display against Pitt's defense.

Why you should watch: If you haven't seen the player that Jordan Williams of Maryland has begun this season, he is worth the watch. Williams had a promising freshman season, but some extra weight around his waist limited his quickness and explosiveness. Williams dropped about 20 pounds during the offseason, and it really shows. He's dunking everything around the rim, and he's also developed a terrific post game. He's averaging 21 ppg and 14 rpg through three game, but he hasn't faced near the competition of a Gary McGhee in the post. That will be one of the best one-on-one matchups in November.

It will also be worth your time to check out Texas' talented youngsters. Freshmen Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph have yet to really hit their stride, but Jordan Hamilton has finally seemed to figure out what shot selection is. He is one of the best scorers in the country.

BIAH Prediction: Illinois knocks off Pitt for the title.


4. Puerto Rico Tip-Off

Bracket:


Favorite: North Carolina

This UNC team is clearly still figuring each other out, but there isn't a team in this bracket with close to the talent that the Heels have on their roster.

Potential Upset: Western Kentucky over Minnesota

I really like Minnesota's team this season, which should tell you how good the Hilltoppers have a chance to be this season. Steffphon Pettigrew and Juan Patillo form as good of a inside-outside combo as you are going to find at the mid-major level.

Another potential upset I like is Hofstra over North Carolina. Hofstra has one of the best players you've never heard of in Charles Jenkins. He's truly capable of taking a game over, regardless of his opponent. In addition, Hofstra has added shooter Mike Moore on the perimeter which will help to spread the floor.

Sleeper: Vanderbilt

A lot of people are sleeping on the Commodores. Yes, they lost Jermaine Beal and AJ Ogilvy, but they return John Jenkins, arguably the best shooter in the country, and Jeffery Taylor, a potential first round pick. Brad Tinsley, the question mark at the point, posted a triple-double in the opener and Vandy also has a couple of big, athletic front court players. Its not a stretch to think this could be the second best team in the SEC.

Why you should watch: This tournament is wide open. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if West Virginia, Minnesota, Vanderbilt, or UNC won it. I also wouldn't be surprised if Western Kentucky, Hofstra, or Davidson won a first round game. There isn't the star power in this tournament that there is in some of the other tournaments, but there could very well end up being five tournament teams. Balance breeds excitement.

It will also be the first chance for many people to see Harrison Barnes. Barnes is the first freshman to ever be named to the AP preseason all-america first team. He's that good, or so people say. Tune in and find out for yourself.

BIAH Prediction: Minnesota knocks off the winner of Vanderbilt-West Virginia after Hofstra upsets UNC.


5. Diamond Head Classic

Bracket:


Favorite: Baylor

As much as I want to show Butler the love here, Baylor has to be considered the favorite. They are a favorite to win the Big XII when they are at full strength, and by the time December rolls around, LaceDarius Dunn will be back in uniform.

Potential Upset: Hawaii over Florida State

Hawaii was not supposed to be any good this season, not when they lose the majority of their offense from last year and bring in a new coaching staff. But after their win over Central Michigan in the Tip-Off Marathon, the Rainbows are sitting pretty at 3-0. Granted, those wins came against not-so-impressive competition, but Hawaii hasn't quite been the disaster we expected. Hiram Thompson and Bill Amis are playing well right now, and guys like Jostan Thomas, Zane Johnson, and Bo Barnes have been solid contributors. I like this Florida State team, but there's potential here.

Sleeper: Washington State

The Cougars had a bit of a disappointing season in '09-'10, especially after the good start they had. And while they are predicted to once again finish in the middle of a mediocre Pac-10, the thing to remember with this team is that they have as good of a 1-2-3 as anyone. Reggie Moore should be primed for a big sophomore season, DeAngelo Casto is underrated as a big body inside, and Klay Thompson might be the best scorer on the west coast.

Why you should watch: Like the Puerto Rico tip-off, this tournament is wide-open and chock full of terrific games. If Butler and Florida State both advance, which they should, that will be one of the better games of Feast Week. Both will are tough, physical defensive teams that will be looking to find additional scoring options. They also happen to feature two of the best players in the country in Shelvin Mack and Chris Singleton. On the other side of the bracket, the potential Wazzu-Baylor matchup looks enticing as well, and yes, the conference expansion undertones play a part in that.

Also of note is the individual talent in this tournament. Singleton should be a lottery pick. Mack, Dunn, and Thompson all could be all-americans. Perry Jones is one of the best freshman in the country.

BIAH Prediction: Butler takes out Washington State for the championship.


6. Old Spice Classic

Bracket:


Favorite: Wisconsin

The Badgers have earned the right to be a team that you don't bet against. Expect the same, tough defensive and the same, precise offensive execution as every Bo Ryan team. But also be aware that big man Jon Leuer could very well end up winning the Big Ten player of the year award.

Potential Upset: Notre Dame over Temple (*assuming that Georgia's Trey Thompkins is not yet back from his ankle injury)

Notre Dame begins the post-Gody era, and while it clearly hurts losing a player with that kind of production potential, the Irish have far from a bar cupboard. Scott Martin and Tim Abromaitis form a versatile combo at the, Carleton Scott is an underrated post play, and Ben Hansbrough has proven to be a guy that can hit a big shot. Temple is a very good team, but Notre Dame is going to be better than people expect.

Sleeper: Texas A&M

Its weird calling a team from a power conference a sleeper, but in this field, the Aggies are. With A&M losing three starters, and tragically losing recruit Tobi Oyedeji, most are expecting a mediocre season in College Station. But this team has a number of pieces in their front court, headlined by David Loubeau, a big man with a chance to really break out this season. The back court is underrated as well, featuring Dash Harris, BJ Holmes, and Naji Hibbert.

Why you should watch: Wisconsin, Temple, and Texas A&M are three of the best defensive teams in the country. All three clubs are well-coached and disciplined. In an era where crossovers and dunks have taken centerstage, it is nice to see a couple programs buck the trend and stick with the ugly fundamentals of the game. You may not like watching it as much as I do, you may not find that style aesthically appealing, but you have to at least appreciate the way these teams play.

BIAH Prediction: Wisconsin over Temple in a terrific matchup of big men.


7. Preseason NIT

Bracket:


Favorite: Villanova

The Wildcats are good, but they are the default favorite in this tournament simply because the rest of the field is pretty mediocre. Wake Forest? UCLA? Tennessee?

Potential Upset: Missouri State over Tennessee

The Bears are one of the best teams in the MVC, as they return basically everyone from last season. They are a bit small inside, but Tennessee isn't exactly loaded with post players. And keep in mind, Tennessee is dealing with quite a few allegations and off-the-court issues involving their head coach.

I also think that Pacific has a chance to beat UCLA. The Tigers ran a 2-3 zone to knock off UTEP and Nevada, and UCLA didn't look overly impressve against Pepperdine's zone last night.

Sleeper: VCU

The Rams are arguably the best program in the CAA. And while they lose Lary Sanders this season, this is still a group that is good enough to potentially earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Joey Rodriguez is one of the best point guards in the country, but he is far from the only weapon on this balanced VCU club.

Why you should watch: The Preseason NIT is the only 16 team event that still plays a true tournament. Events like the Coaches vs. Cancer, the CBE Classic, and the Legends Classic all have their big draws -- the power conference teams participating in the event -- automatically get advanced to the final four. Its easy to understand why. It guarantees ticket sales and eyeballs on TV sets.

But it goes against the spirit of college hoops. In college hoops, the little guy has a chance. And perhaps we are lucky that it is the NIT that has these particular hosts. Would anyone be shocked if both VCU and Pacific advanced to MSG? Would anyone, other than their respective fan bases, be upset if Wake Forest and UCLA didn't?

BIAH Prediction: VCU advances, Pacific doesn't, and Villanova rolls


8. Charleston Classic

Bracket:


Favorite: Georgetown

The Hoyas may not have a great front court, but their back court is as good as anyone in the country. The trio of Austin Freeman, Jason Clark, and Chris Wright should be enough to carry the Hoyas to the title.

Potential Upset: Coastal Carolina, Wofford over Georgetown

I know I just said that the Hoyas are the favorite to win it all, but they are going to have a couple of tough matchups in the first two rounds. Wofford proved to be a worthy foe as they competed with both Clemson and Minnesota last week. Coastal Carolina win 28 games and returns three starters, including their leading scorer.

Sleeper: George Mason

The Patriots should be very good this season. They were in the mix for the CAA title until a disastrous February took the out of contention. But they return all five starters this year, including two guys -- Luke Hancock and Cam Long -- that could end up being all-CAA players. They have size, shooting, and athleticism, and, most importantly, what was a young team last season has a year of experience under their belts.

Why you should watch: The NCAA Tournament! I know its early, but now is when you have to start thinking about getting ready for your bracket. How do you win a bracket? By correctly predicting the upsets. It wouldn't be surprising to anyone if Coastal Casolina, Wofford, and George Mason were all dancing come March. Don't you want to be prepared?

BIAH Prediction: Georgetown smacks NC State in the final.


9. 76 Classic

Bracket:


Favorite: UNLV

At this point in the season, Tre'Von Willis will be eligible, and when he is eligible, he is a terrific player. And when he isn't on the court, the Runnin' Rebels are good enough to beat UC Riverside 85-41.

Potential Upset: Tulsa over UNLV

I really like this Tulsa team despite the loss to Appalachian State early in the season. They have a couple of talented big guys that can hit the glass, they have a couple of talented shooters on the wing, and they have a promising freshman point guard. When Justin Hurtt and Scottie Haralson are hitting their jumpers, this team will be a tough out.

Sleeper: Murray State

The Racers are a very good basketball team. After winning a game in the tournament last season, Murray State brings back all but two players from their rotation. This is a group that is balanced offensively, tough defensively, and has a number of weapons on the offensive end of the floor, led by Isaiah Canaan and BJ Jenkins.

Why you should watch: This tournament features three of the best perimeter scorers in the country. We've already touched on Tre'Von Willis from UNLV. There is also Jeremy Green from Stanford, who exploded as a sophomore. Green averaged 16.6 ppg as a sharpshooter playing wingman to Landry Fields. This season Green is going to be the focal point of this Cardinals offense. If his game developed beyond being a shooter, his scoring numbers should be even more improved next season.

And you cannot forget about Malcolm Delaney. Delaney is the star point guard for Virginia Tech, a guy that averaged 20 ppg and 4 apg last season. While the Hokies return the same starting lineup as last season, losing Allan Chaney and JT Thompson to health issues are going to really hurt Tech inside. As a result, Delaney is going to be relied on that much more for offensive production.

BIAH Prediction: Virginia Tech over UNLV in the final


10. Paradise Jam

Bracket:


Favorite: Old Dominion

Clearly, this is the weakest of the 10 tournaments we spotlighted. Evidence? Old Dominion is the favorite. Nothing against ODU, because I believe they are a tourament team this season, but they certainly are not a powerhouse program that will cruise to victory.

Potential Upset: Seton Hall over Xavier

Let's face it -- the Muskies are not playing good basketball right now. They lost an exhibition to a D-II team, then they nearly dropped their home opener to Western Michigan. Seton Hall is a good team this season, and they are really good when Jeremy Hazell is making smart decisions with the ball. By the time this tournament comes around, Herb Pope should have his legs under him as well. Tu Holloway played well in the second half on Friday, but no one else has this sea.

Sleeper: Clemson

The Tigers lost their head coach and Trevor Booker. Not exactly the easiest way for a new coach to rebuild, but Brad Brownell has a number of pieces. He's got a good back court with Andre Young, Tanner Smith, and Demontez Stitt, and his front court of Noel Johnson, Jerai Grant, Milton Jennings, and Devon Booker is big and athletic. They will play a different style than you are used to seeing from a Clemson team, but regardless, this is a group that can be dangerous if they put it all together.

Why you should watch: To cheer on Herb Pope. If you haven't heard his story, its a tragic one. He was shot four times at a party in high school and nearly died. He went to New Mexico State to try and get far away from his Aliquippa, PA, home. He couldn't stand not being near his daughter, so he transferred to Seton Hall. After sitting out a season, Pope nearly died after his sophomore year when a birth defect caused his heart to stop during a workout on campus back in April. He survived, but he was away from basketball for four months. The worst part? The coach that recruiting him to Seton Hall -- Bobby Gonzalez -- didn't even visit him in the hospital.

BIAH Prediction: Old Dominion knocks off Seton Hall.


2 comments:

John Lamb said...

A Temple-Wisconsin final would be...interesting. First team to 50 points wins.

Rob Dauster said...

It would be fairly boring, but it would be fantastically fundamental