Monday, August 16, 2010

Its too early to dicuss rankings for Kentucky's 2011 class

Let's take a journey back in time, back to late-June, 2010. Kentucky just had five players taken in the first round, four of them one-and-done freshman, one of whom a back-up center that averaged fewer than seven points and rebounds combined.

After Daniel Orton, that back-up center, went 29th overall to set the record for most first-rounders from one team, John Calipari said that night was the "biggest night in the history of the Kentucky programs." Now, plenty of people jumped on Cal for this, and understandably so. Kentucky has won seven national titles. Big Blue Nation doesn't care about the NBA, or how many players go in the first round. They want banners. They want No. 8, not an Elite 8.

Kentucky's 2009 recruiting class.
(photo credit: AP)

But, as we wrote at the time, people that criticized Calipari missed the point.

This is a new era of college basketball. This is the one-and-done era, and no coach in the country has embraced it the way that Calipari has. June 24th wasn't a great day because John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins were top five draft picks. Everyone expected it, and anything less would have been a disappointment.

But who thought that Eric Bledsoe and Orton, two kids that weren't even consensus top 25 recruits coming out of high school, had a shot at being one-and-doners, let alone first rounders, after their freshman season? Very few, if any. The fact that Cal was able to get those two into the top 30 picks became his trump card as a recruiter. Come to Kentucky, and I'll get you paid, legally. I'll get you an NBA contract worth seven figures of guaranteed money, and you'll only need one year of college to do it.

That's likely why he was able to land Anthony Davis. That's a big part of the reason why he already has commitments from Mike Gilchrist and Marquis Teague. That's why kids like LeBryan Nash and Quincy Miller, two more consensus top ten recruits in the class of 2011, and even Tony Wroten, a top 25 point guard (Teague's position) in the class of 2011, will be taking good, long looks at Kentucky before they finally commit to a school.

Is Quincy Miller the next high school star headed to Kentucky?
(photo credit: Nation of Blue)

That's why this post by Rush The Court on the greatest three year recruiting run ever, and the weekend discussions by our college hoops tweeps on whether this was the greatest recruiting class ever (the same discussion that spawned RTC's post), were wildly premature.

You are insane if you think this class is finished.

You are even crazier if you think that this trend isn't going to continue.

Calipari may never have the same amount of success that the Duke recruiting class of the late 90's had. Hell, he may never live up to what the Fab Five was able to accomplish. It is difficult to have success as a team when there is so much roster turnover. Every season, Cal is going to have to start anew teaching his best players his system. Every season, he's going to have to teach his freshman what it takes to defend at the college level. How to handle the media. How to deal with the pressure applied by Big Blue Nation.

Maybe they will click as a team; maybe they will never find a rhythm; maybe they will have enough talent to overcome a lack of cohesiveness.

What seems to be a certainty, however, is that as long as his program is a pipeline to NBA riches, Lexington is going to be the desired college lay-over for many, if not most, of high school basketball's best.

4 comments:

rtmsf said...

BiaH - what's wildly premature about it? Other than the Duke 97-99 era, there's been no greater recruiting run that I'm aware of dating back to UCLA.

If your argument is that things can change between now and the tipoff of the 2011-12 season (ie, Kentucky gets nailed for violations), I can buy that. But I'm not sure that was the point.

What am I missing here?

Rob Dauster said...

My point was that I don't think this Kentucky class is done. I don't delve into recruiting as much as I probably should, but I would be shocked if Kentucky didn't end up getting at least one of Miller, Nash, or Wroten, if not someone else as well. There is still a lot of time before the class of 2011 has to finalize a decision, and I find it tough to believe Calipari doesn't add too his haul.

That's all I was getting at - that the class could very well get much better before all is said and done.

Kyle said...

As a Kentucky fan, I've got both fingers crossed that this class does not live up to the Fab Five

rtmsf said...

Gotcha. Yeah, truth is that it could get even better, or it could get worse. Or it could blow up completely as Memphis' class of 09 did as we all recall.

Still, based on the knowledge we have now, it's a hell of a haul and I think it rivals only that Duke run, but I was careful to point out that recruiting rankings don't guarantee anything that actually matters.