Weekend Preview

Florida, Illinois, Louisville, and Mississippi State are all on the bubble right now. Depending on who you ask, some may be better off than others, but the bottom line is that without a win this weekend, none of these teams can feel comfortable heading into their respective conference tournaments.

Easier said than done, however.

• Syracuse @ Louisville, Sat. 2pm: I know that it is senior night, and I know that it is the last time the Cardinals will play a regular season game in Freedom Hall (if they host a game in the NIT, that will be the last game). I also am fully aware that Syracuse does not have much to play for at this point other than pride. They have clinched an outright Big Est title already. That said, there is a lot of pride on the line. The Cardinals beat the Orange in Syracuse less than a month ago. This is a winnable game given the circumstances for Louisville, but they are going to have to come ready to play. A win will make Louisville a lock for the dance.
  

• Tennessee @ Mississippi State, Sat. 6pm: Mississippi State would have come into this game in decent shape had they beaten on Auburn. But they didn't, meaning that this game is about as close as you can get to a do or die for the Bulldogs. The relevant numbers here: MSU's only good wins are ODU and Ole Miss twice, but they have lost five games to teams ranked outside the top 100 in the RPI.


• Florida @ Kentucky, Sun. 12pm: Like Louisville, Florida is not in terrible shape right now. They have a couple nice wins, but have also lost a few head scratchers. If they had beaten Georgia on the road, this game would be for nothing but seeding. But as it is, a loss here means that Florida would be trying to get an at-large bid with 12 losses playing in the SEC. Not an easy thing to do, and neither is beating Kentucky at Rupp on senior night. The Gators may be in some trouble.


• Wisconsin @ Illinois, Sun. 12pm: The Illini are in trouble. They are 18-12 on the season, have an RPI that exceeds the standard for at-large bid. If Illinois loses and doesn't win the Big Ten tournament, they will have 14 losses. You aren't dancing with 14 losses in the Big Ten.
  

Weekend Bubble Watch

• 3/6 - 12:00 pm: Florida State @ Miami: The Seminoles are very close to locking up an at-large bid. Win, and their ticket is all but punched.
• 3/6 - 1:00 pm: Memphis @ Tulsa: Tulsa isn't dancing without an automatic bid, but Memphis, thanks to their win over UAB, might be able to get in if they can beat the Golden Hurricanes and win a game or two in the C-USA tournament.
  
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  3/6 - Nebraska @ Oklahoma State: The Pokes are probably feeling pretty good about where they stand after knocking off Kansas last weekend. But a disastrous performance against Texas A&M took some of the luster off that win. Losing at home to Nebraska as bad of a loss as you can have in the Big XII.
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  3/6 - 2:00 pm: Richmond @ Charlotte: This is a last chance for the 49ers. May need more than the one win, though.
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  3/6 - 2:00 pm: UConn @ South Florida: Believe it or not, UConn still has a very good chance to dance. That should tell you how weak the bubble is.
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  3/6 - 2:00 pm: Notre Dame @ Marquette: If I would have told you a month ago that by the season's final weekend, both Notre Dame and Marquette looked like they were going to be tournament teams, would you have believed me? Notre Dame needs it more than Marquette (who is all but in). If you like three pointers, this is the game for you.
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  3/6 - 4:00 pm: Ole Miss @ Arkansas: The Rebels last chance to play themselves into the tournament. They may need this and one in the SEC tourney.
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  4:00 pm: Va Tech @ Ga Tech: This may actually be the most important bubble match-up of the day. The Yellow Jackets cannot afford to drop below .500 in the ACC, while the Hokies have a weak enough non-conference that losing this game could knock them out.
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  3/6 - 4:00 pm: URI @ UMass: If Rhody is serious about a bid, this is the kind of game they cannot lose.
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  3/6 - 4:00 pm: Wyoming @ UNLV: Ditto for UNLV.
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  3/6 - 4:00 pm: UCLA @ Arizona: Believe it or not, Arizona State is now officially on the bubble.
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  3/6 - 6:00 pm: Cal @ Stanford: Cal can lock up the Pac-10 regular season title with a win.
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  3/6 - 7:00 pm: Cornell @ Yale: If the Big Red loses tonight, this game will be for the year's first auto-bid.
• 3/6 - 9:05 pm: UAB @ UTEP: UTEP has all but earned an at-large bid at this point as they have won 13 straight games to clinch the C-USA regular season title. UAB is in really bad shape after their loss to Memphis. They probably need to beat UTEP, and then maybe win a tournament game as well to get in.