Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Tuesday's Pregame Beat

Bubble Watch

  • 8:00 pm: Georgia Tech @ Clemson: How many teams from the ACC are going to be dancing this season? We know that Maryland and Duke are in. After that, Georgia Tech and Clemson are mixed in with a group of five teams looking to play their way off the bubble. Georgia Tech cannot win on the road. They are 1-6 in league play away from home, having beaten only UNC with losses to Miami and UVA as well as Georgia out of conference. At home, however, they have picked up some nice wins, beating the likes of Duke, Wake Forest, Siena, and these very Tigers. Clemson looks to be in a bit better position. They lost four out of five in the middle of the season, but that stretch came while starting point guard Demontez Stitt was battling an ankle injury. Clemson's issue is that they just don't have that many quality wins -- they've beaten Butler, Maryland, and swept Florida State. Both teams really need this win.
  • 9:30 pm: Louisville @ Marquette: The Cardinals and the Golden Eagles are tied for fifth in the Big East standings, and are both close to locking up an at-large bid for the tournament. Whoever wins tonight will basically be in and whoever loses is going to need to pick up another win, either in their last game of the season or in their first game of the Big East tournament.

  • 7:00 pm: Vanderbilt @ Florida: This is probably the game of the night. Vanderbilt is the second best team in the SEC, playing to ensure a first round bye in the SEC tournament and better seeding in the dance. Florida, on the other hand, still needs to do some work if they are to get a bid. If the tournament started today, the Gators would likely be in. They have a couple good wins out of conference (Michigan State, Florida State) and beat Tennessee last week. But they still have to play Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Losing three in a row to end the season is not the way to earn an at-large bid. Vanderbilt is a well-coached team with some size on the inside, which is precisely the kind of team the Gators have struggled against.

  • 7:00 pm: Villanova @ Cincinnati: This is a do or die game for the Bearcats tonight. The bubble may be weak this year, but its not weak enough to get a team with a losing record in the Big East into the tournament. If Cinci loses, that is exactly where they will be. With Villanova and Georgetown left on their schedule, the Bearcats have the opportunity to play their way in. Cinci has a couple nice out of conference wins (Vanderbilt, Maryland), but the only thing close to a good win in conference came against Notre Dame and UConn (a sweep), and neither of those teams are a lock to make the tournament. This is a good matchup for the Bearcats. Nova has been sliding a bit of late. They struggle on the defensive end of the floor and don't have the size that Cincinnati does. The Bearcats are pretty good defensively, but I'm not sure they have the perimeter defenders to slow down Nova's talented backcourt.

  • 9:00 pm: Illinois @ Ohio State: The Illini desperately need this win. After moving into a tie atop the Big Ten standings, Illinois has fallen quick and hard. They've lost three out of four and still have to play the Buckeyes as well as Wisconsin. Illinois may actually need to win both to get in. The Illini don't have an overly impressive RPI or SOS and they already have 11 losses on the year (including L's to Utah, Bradley, Northwestern, and Georgia). don't expect Ohio State to roll over tonight, either. It is senior night for the Buckeyes, and a win clinches at least a share of the Big Ten title.

  • 7:00 pm: UTEP @ Marshall: The Miners have already clinched at least a share of the C-USA title, but if they want to feel safe heading into the conference tournament, they are probably going to need to win their last two regular season games.

  • 7:00 pm: Minnesota @ Michigan: Minnesota is another team right on the edge of the bubble. If the Gophers want to earn a bid, they are going to need to win their last two regular season games and at least one in the Big Ten Tournament.
Other notable games
  • 7:00 pm: St. John's @ Syracuse
  • 8:00 pm: Baylor @ Texas Tech
  • 8:00 pm: Missouri @ Iowa State
  • 8:00 pm: Miami FL @ North Carolina
  • 9:00 pm: Cal State Bakersfield @ Gonzaga

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