Predicting the bubble

Just some bracket predictions for your viewing pleasure. May as well jump right in...

Locks (as always, if you won your conference tournament, you won't be on this list, pending the Big Ten final)

• ACC: Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State (4)
• Big East: Georgetown, Syracuse, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova, Notre Dame (7)
• Big XII: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas (6)
• Big Ten: Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State (4)
• SEC: Tennessee, Vanderbilt (2)
• A-10: Xavier, Richmond (2)
• MWC: UNLV, BYU, New Mexico (3)
• Other: Gonzaga (1)

If you do a bit of math, you'll see that 29 teams are locked into an at-large bid, leaving five spots open. If Ohio State beats Minnesota, that opens up a sixth spot.

Earlier this morning, we listed 12 teams that were still on the bubble. Of those twelve Rhode Island, William & Mary, and Seton Hall can probably be taken off that list, leaving nine teams for six spots.

Who's in?:

• Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are probably in the best shape of anyone on this list. They have a solid RPI, they beat the top two teams in the ACC, they have as many quality wins (11 vs. the RPI top 100) as anyone on this list. And while they finished just 7-9 in the ACC, they were successful against a touch non-conference schedule.
• Cal: The Bears have fantastic computer numbers, but its a little puzzling where they came from. They are 19th in the RPI, but they have just one RPI top 50 win and that came against a Washington team they finished the season 1-2 against. The Bears played a tough schedule, true, but they lost to all the good teams they played. That said, there is no way that a team that won the Pac-10 (even with five losses) and is ranked 19th in the RPI is missing the tournament.
  
• UTEP: UTEP is in a much more difficult situation than many realized heading into the C-USA tournament. Sure, this team steam rolled their league, but C-USA was considered a one-bid league for much of the year. The Miners have just two RPI top 50 wins (both UAB, not a tournament team) and three losses outside of the top RPI 100. That said, I think the Miners have done enough, and I hope that they get in.
  
• Utah State: Utah State is in the same boat as UTEP, and Cal to a degree. The Aggies won 17 straight games before losing New Mexico State in the WAC title game. And while the majority of that schedule was fluff, Utah State beat most of that fluff and picked up a win against BYU along the way. Combine that with their respectable RPI, and Utah State has to get in if Cal gets in. The same should probably be said for UTEP as well.
  
• Minnesota: The Gophers, in my mind, are probably in regardless of the outcome. They have five RPI top 50 wins and three RPI top 25 wins. The Gophers remind me of Notre Dame a little bit. They underachieved all season long, but a late surge was enough. They could end all doubt with a win over Ohio State.
  
• Illinois: The Illini did just about everything they could in the NCAA tournament to give themselves a real shot of getting in. They beat Wisconsin. They took the best team in the Big Ten with the best player in the country to double OT. They have two wins over the Badgers. They have a win over Michigan State. They beat Clemson on the road and beat Vanderbilt at home. Those are five very good wins. Now think about this - Illinios is 74th in the RPI. With those five wins, playing in the Big Ten, how bad were they the rest of the season to have that kind of ranking?
  

Who's out?:

• Virginia Tech: Tech is the hard luck loser of this season's big dance. They had a couple good wins, but they simply did not play a tough enough schedule. Their non-conference schedule was 344th out of 347 teams (although its not all their fault. They played Iowa, Penn State, Georgia, and Seton Hall). Their best win is at Georgia Tech, which is not saying much. Seven of their ten ACC wins came against teams that won't make the tournament.
  
• Mississippi State: Look, that run through the SEC was nice and all, but don't let an impulse but make you forget how bad MSU was this season. Their best win was Old Dominion coming in, and they lost to five team with RPI's above 100. That's not a tournament team.
  
• Florida: Credit has to be given for playing good teams -- the Gators played nine teams in the RPI top 25. But they lost eight of those games. Florida had their chances at the end of the season, but losses to Georgia and Mississippi State cost them. If it came down to Florida, Minnesota, and Illinois, Florida suffered because they didn't add anything to their resume in their conference tournaments.
  

Taking a stab at the No. 1 seeds, I think it will end up being Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, and Duke, in that order, although my personal preference would be for West Virginia.