What we learned this week: We've known this for a while, but the bubble this season is, in a word, bad awful terrible atrocious weak.
Here's a quick look at the bubble situation:
Locks/will be in barring a disaster:
Add all those teams up, and you have 38 teams that are pretty secure in their status as an at-large. Thirteen conferences are represented above, so assuming that there are no bid-stealers -- teams earning an automatic bid that would not receive an at-large berth -- that means there are, in a best-case scenario, nine at-large bids up for grabs over the next week.
Bubble Teams:
ACC:
Big East:
Beating Georgia Tech on the road on Saturday did a world of good for the Hokies, as it is probably their best win on the season. The biggest issue for the Hokies is that they are relatively untested and unproven. They did a whole lot of nothing in the nonconference, and while they do have wins over Clemson, Wake Forest, and Seton Hall as well, there is nothing on their resume that makes you turn your head. The Hokies earned a bye as the fourth seed in the ACC and still have a decent shot if they don't get blown out in their first game (Wake Forest-Miami winner), but making the semifinals would lock them into a bid.
The Yellow Jackets are in a danger zone. They lost six of their last nine games overall, and now sit as the seven seed in the ACC Tourney. The win over Duke is nice, but there isn't much else on this resume (Siena, Wake, Clemson at home), especially on the road, where their best win is probably Charlotte. If Tech wants to be safe, they need to beat both North Carolina in the first round and Maryland in the quarters, otherwise they will be sweating out Selection Sunday.
Big Ten
The Irish are an interesting case. They have some really good wins (Pitt, Georgetown, West Virginia) and are as hot as any team in the country heading into the conference tournaments, having won four in a row. But prior to this recent win streak, the Irish hadn't done much, picked up some bad losses, and played poorly against a bad non conference schedule. As of today, they are probably in, but a loss to the Seton Hall-Rutgers winner could be disastrous. Win, and they are probably safe even with a loss to Pitt on Thursday.
The Hall doesn't have a ton of great wins (Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, at Cornell), but they don't have any bad losses. Their worst loss is to the team rated 64th in the RPI, and they have seven losses to teams in the RPI top 20. If they can beat Rutgers, it would set up an interesting match-up between themselves and Notre Dame as a possible play-in game.
South Florida thrust themselves back into the conversation with three straight wins to close out the regular season. The Bulls are close, but losses to St. John's, South Carolina, and Central Michigan hurt. If South Florida really wants to put themselves in striking distance, they need to beat both DePaul and Georgetown. If they do, it could be enough. Beating Syracuse in the quarters would almost ensure a bid.
There are two reason the Huskies are still in contention - wins over Texas, Villanova, and West Virginia and the third toughest schedule in the country. The problem is the 14 losses. If UConn can make it to the quarters, beating St. John's and Marquette, than a win over Villanova may be enough.
SEC:
The Illini have some nice wins (Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State without Kalin Lucas, @ Wisconsin) but also have some very puzzling losses (Utah, Bradley, Northwestern, Georgia). The Illini lost five of their last six games, which combined with Demetri McCamey's blowup on Sunday, does not leave one with a good feeling about Illinois. With such a low RPI and 13 losses on the season, the Illini can ill afford to lose to Wisconsin in their Big Ten tourney opener.
Minnesota has an outside chance if they can make a deep run through the Big Ten Tournament, but with the number of questionable losses they have, the Gophers are a long shot. Their 35 point beatdown of Iowa didn't do much to erase the memory of the 25 point loss they suffered at Michigan.
Pac-10:
Florida looked to be in much better position two weeks ago after a win over Tennessee, but since then the Gators have lost three in a row, including a bad loss to Georgia. the Gators looked destined to play Mississippi State in the quarters of the SEC in what will likely amount to a play-out game.
The Rebels were swept by Mississippi State, but they also have wins over Kansas State and UTEP, which are both better than anything MSU can provide. The problem for the Rebels is that their only wins in the conference against a team with a record above .500 on the season is Alabama. They likely need to beat Tennessee (assuming they beat LSU) in their first game of the SEC Tournament.
The Bulldogs have very little chance of earning an at-large bid. Their best win is Old Dominion, and they did sweep Ole Miss, but its never a good sign when your bad losses (Rider, Western Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas) outnumber your good wins. A trip to the finals may not be enough.
Atlantic 10:
Washington and Arizona are both on the outside looking in right now, but both are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. Washington may have the better wins, but Arizona State has fewer bad losses. Right now, neither team is in the tournament, but a trip to the Pac-10 may be enough. Odds are good that one of these two teams will be there, as they right now look destined to meet as the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the conference semifinals.
Everyone Else:
URI simply let their tournament chances slip through their fingers, but that's what happens when you lose to St. Bonaventure and UMass on the road. URI got a bad draw in the A-10 tournament as well, as they get St. Joe's an St. Louis before reaching the semis, meaning they won't be able to help out their resume at the top. URI likely needs a trip to the finals.
The 49ers have some nice wins (at a shorthanded Louisville, Temple, Richmond), but they've been blown out a number of times and have some very questionable losses on their schedule. For the 49ers to have a real shot, they too likely need to reach the tournament finals. If they do, that would include a win over at least Richmond.
The Flyers put themselves in terrible position by losing four of their last five. They struggled on the road and couldn't the season out with a win over St. Louis at home. Dayton needs more to help themselves than Charlotte and Richmond, as a trip to the finals may not be enough. 8-8 in the A-10 is not as good as some would have thought a month ago.
SDSU has a nice RPI, but it hides the fact that this team doesn't have much on its resume. Their only wins of note came against New Mexico and UNLV, and they also have a couple of questionable losses. They likely will need to reach the finals of the MWC, and beat New Mexico along the way, if they hope to go dancing.
If the tournament started today, Memphis might be able to sneak in at the end thanks to a win over UAB at the end of the season to sweep the Blazers. But Memphis does not have much else on their resume, and can ill-afford an early loss in the C-USA tournament. If they beat the Blazers again in the semis and reach the finals, it could be enough.
UAB has a couple decent wins (Butler, Cinci), but blew a chance to solidfy their resume by losing to Memphis and UTEP to close the season. Without a trip to the C-USA finals, they have no shot. Even with a trip to the finals, they would be iffy at best.
The Gaels play the Zags tonight in the WCC finals. They are a borderline bubble team now, and a loss definitely won't improve that. If the game in competitive, they might be able to sneak in, but the Gaels are going to want to earn the auto-bid to avoid setting themselves up for disappointment on Selection Sunday.
Monday, March 8, 2010
3/8 - College Hoops Week in Review: So the conference tournaments are going to be pretty important, huh? |
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