Kansas and Kentucky are going to be two of the four No. 1 seeds barring something drastic.
After that, it gets a bit murkier. For a while, it seemed as if Villanova and Syracuse had those two spots locked up. But with the Wildcats and the Orange both dropping home games against middling Big East teams this week, and with Purdue and Duke both surging, who is leading the chase for the other two No. 1 seeds?
Purdue: 22-3, 10-3
Purdue may very well be the hottest team in the country right now. After going through a leadership crisis in the middle of Big Ten play, causing them to drop three games in a row, the Boilermakers have won eight straight games, including wins over all of the other four teams competing for the Big Ten title. Should I mention that they beat Illinois, Michigan State, and Ohio State on the road? They are now tied with Michigan State in holding a one game lead over the rest of the Big Ten, and they get the Spartans at home for the rematch. There is a very good chance Purdue is the outright winner of the Big Ten.
Syracuse: 24-2, 11-2
Unline Purdue, the Orange have been playing pretty poorly of late. Ever since they had to comeback to beat DePaul, the Cuse has been a bit off. Its a combination of things - Wes Johnson hasn't seemed right since taking a nasty spill against Providence; the Cuse has had some recent issues with turning the ball over, and forcing their opponents into turnovers; they aren't getting as many easy looks, especially in transition. It culminated with a loss to Louisville on Sunday afternoon. This is not a good time of year for the Orange to be struggling as the remainder of their schedule is difficult - three of those games are very lose-able. The good news? Nova has a tough schedule as well, and the Orange get the Wildcats in the Carrier Dome.
Villanova: 22-3, 11-2
The biggest hindrance to the Wildcat's bid for a No. 1 seed is simply their schedule. They play three games against teams that have a shot at a top four seed, and there is a chance that all five of those teams could make the NCAA Tournament. If Nova can win the Big East regular season title playing those five games, than they will absolutely deserve a No. 1 seed.
Duke: 22-4, 10-2
Duke's biggest issue this season has been their ability to win on the road, but after beating Miami tonight, they have now won four straight road games in the ACC and three roadies overall. That said, that winning streak doesn't exactly come against the powers in the ACC. But the ACC is the third best, and probably the most balanced, league in the country, and Duke is unequivocally the best team in this league.
Having said all of that, the determining factor in the No. 1 seeds is going to be championships. Who won their conference regular season title? Who won the tournament title? Did anyone win both?
It also leaves the door open for some sleeper teams. Lets say that Kansas State were to win out, which includes taking home the title in the Big XII tournament. That would put the Wildcats at 13-3 and all alone in second place in the best conference in the country with a tournament title and at least one win over Kansas to boot. It would be pretty tough to keep that K-State team out of a No. 1 seed.
The same goes for Michigan State. If the Spartans can get past Ohio State and Purdue in the next ten days, they will all but clinch the Big Ten regular season title. What happens if they win the Big Ten tournament too? Again, it would be very tough to keep that Michigan State team from getting a No. 1 seed.
So like all NCAA Tournament speculation, predicting the No. 1 seeds is just that: speculation; predicting.
There is a lot of basketball still to be played. The teams that get the No. 1 seeds are going to be the ones that earn it in the next three weeks, not the ones predicted as the favorites right now.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Predicting the No. 1 seeds, kind of |
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment