Final Bracketbusters

As you should know by now, Bracket Busters kicks off tonight (here is the complete TV schedule), and as is usually the case, there are a number of games bound to be exciting.

But only a few of those games carry with them bubble implications. Thanks to a rough couple of weeks, the crop of potential at-large bids coming from the mid-majors has dwindled. That said, there are still four games that will have an effect on who will hear their name called on Selection Sunday.


Old Dominion @ Northern Iowa (Friday, 7:00 pm, ESPN2):

Both of these teams are sitting in decent position in regards to their at-large hopes. The Monarchs are sitting at 21-7 and tied for the lead in the CAA. Seven losses is a lot for an at-large team out of the CAA, but ODU doesn't have any glaring losses -- their four non-conference losses are all away from home to teams that are still in the mix as far as the tournament is concerned; their three league losses came on the road against CAA contenders; and they can claim ownership of a top 40 RPI and wins at Georgetown, against Charlotte by 33, and a sweep of William & Mary. As nice as that resume is, the Monarchs still need some wins to secure a bid. Northern Iowa has a better record, but its come against much weaker competition. The Panthers have played just one game against the RPI top 50, beating Siena. The Panthers have already clinched the MVC title and have an RPI in the top 25, but could use the win for insurance should they lose during the MVC tournament.

If you like high-scoring basketball, this is not the game for you. Both the Panthers and the Monarch like to grind it out, as they both ranks in the 300's in tempo (UNI is 344th out of 347 teams). Old Dominion, who has a solid post in Gerald Lee, will already be at an advantage as UNI's center Jordan Eglseder is still suspended after getting arrested for drunk driving.


William & Mary @ Iona, Friday 9:00 pm, ESPNU:

Iona is the biggest surprise in the MAAC, as they were predicted to be at the bottom of the league but are currently sitting in second. The Gaels aren't making the NCAA Tournament, but William & Mary still has a very good shot at an at-large. The Tribe has arguably the best two wins of any mid-major this season, knocking off both Wake Forest and Maryland on the road earlier this season as well as picking up a win against Richmond at home. The problem? W&M has lost five CAA games, including four of five at the end of January, dropping a home game against UNC-Wilmington, and losing on the road at Harvard.

W&M probably needs to win out and do some damage in the CAA Tournament if they really want to be a serious candidate for an at-large. If they do make it to the dance, this is not a team you want to play. They have a number of good shooters and like to spread the floor, driving and kicking.


Siena @ Butler, Saturday 11:00 am, ESPN2:

This is, by far, the game of the day as Siena and Butler are arguably the two most highly regarded mid-majors* this season. Butler is basically a lock so long as they avoid a meltdown here late in the season. The Bulldogs have a couple decent wins (Xavier, Ohio State minus Evan Turner), but remind me quite a bit of some of the earlier Gonzaga teams. Great record, talented players, but a bit untested and unproven this season.

Siena, on the other hand, is in a much worse position. They've lost to all three tournament teams they played, dropped a game to St. John's, and just recently snapped their winning streak at Niagara. The Saints best win right now is against Northeastern, which is not a great win by any means. If they lose this game, they have to win the MAAC tournament to get in. But even with a win, the Saints may not be out of the clear.


Wichita State @ Utah State, Saturday 11:59 pm, ESPN2:

Wichita State's at-large hopes are hanging on by a thread, and even that might be kind. The Shockers lost four of eight in the middle of the MVC season, including dropping a roadie against Evansville. The Aggies lost their first two in WAC play on the road, but have since responded by winning 11 straight and vaulting into first place in the league. Utah State does have a win over BYU to their name, but not much else of substance.

The Shockers are probably in trouble in this one. No one should ever bet against Utah State in the Spectrum.

BONUS: Morgan State @ Murray State, Saturday 12:00 pm, ESPNU:

This may be the most fun of the Bracket Buster games to watch. Murray State has already clinched the OVC title, as they sit at 16-0 in conference with just two games to play. Morgan State has all but clinched, as they are up three games in the loss column this late in the year.

But the reason this game will be so exciting is the style the two teams love to play. Both the Bears and the Racers play at an uptempo pace, getting the ball out and running the floor. Expect a high-scoring affair from these two.

*I'm not considering Xavier, Memphis, Gonzaga, or the MWC teams a mid-major. We need to come up with a new term for the major programs outside of the major conferences.