The three best conferences outside the big six are as unpredictable as ever. Unpredictability in sports means excitement, and when you are dealing with conferences where 40% of the league has a real shot at winning the regular season title and/or earning a trip to the dance, you will rarely come across a more unpredictable situation.
Haven't had a chance to watch much A-10 hoops this season? Don't get the Mountain West's channel? Stopped caring about C-USA when Coach Cal left?
Don't worry. We're here to help you parse through it all. Be sure to check back in the next few days as we help you sort out the best leagues outside of the Big Six.
Mountain West bubble breakdown
ATLANTIC 10
Standings (strictly teams that are within reach of the bubble)
- 1. Xavier 15-6, 7-1
- 2. Temple 18-4, 6-1
- 3. Charlotte 16-5, 6-1
- 4. Rhode Island 17-3, 5-2
- 5. Richmond 16-6, 5-2
- 6. Dayton 15-6, 4-3
Despite the Owls loss to Charlotte last Wednesday, the Owls still seem to be the favorite to win this league, and its not necessarily because of their talent level. That's not to say that Temple isn't a talented team. Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez form an excellent 1-2 scoring punch on the perimeter. Fernandez is a better shooter and Brooks is more adept at driving to the basket and mixing it up in the paint, but in the end both are simply good, smart basketball players. Lavoy Allen is a quality big man that can rebound the ball. Luis Guzman is an experienced leader at the point.
Ryan Brooks has been Temple's leading scorer this season.(photo credit: ESPN)
But, like I said, Temple doesn't win because of their talent level. They win because they play defense. On the year, Fran Dunphy's crew has allowed just 56.9 ppg to their opponents, and only four teams have hung 70 points on their disciplined man-to-man defense - Western Michigan, Xavier, Charlotte, and Kansas. And if it wasn't for the "concussion-like symptoms" Juan Fernandez was experiencing and Lavoy Allen's foul trouble, the Owls may not have blown a ten point lead to Charlotte.
The biggest reason Temple is the favorite in the A-10? Their schedule. While the Owls will play five of their remaining nine games on the road, only one of those five roadies (Richmond) comes against a team in the top six of the A-10. Overall, they only play three more games against the top six of the league, and avoid Xavier and Charlotte. With that schedule and their ability to defend, Temple has the best shot of bringing home the league title, especially since they own the tie-breaker with Xavier
And if they lose: Xavier
The Musketeers probably are the next best team in the league. This was supposed to be a down year for the Muskies, as the likes of Derrick Brown, BJ Raymond, and CJ Anderson all moved on from X. Early in the season, Xavier looked like they were going to fulfill those expectations as they lost to Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, Butler, and Wake Forest in the span of 11 games. But as the season has progressed, those losses began to not look so bad. All five teams are in the top 34 according to Kenpom, and with the exception of Marquette (51st), all are also in the top 25 of the RPI. Now consider that all five games were on the road or at the Old Spice Classic, and maybe the writing was on the wall for Xavier's start in league play.
Jordan Crawford could end up being A-10 player of the year.(photo credit: ESPN)
Clearly, the brightest star for Xavier has been Jordan Crawford, the A-10's leading scorer. Crawford has a penchant for gunning, but he has also shown the backbone to take, and make, some tough shots down the stretch. And while Crawford's back court mates -- Terrell Holloway, Mark Lyons, Brad Redord, Dante Jackson -- all play their role capably, perhaps the biggest reason for Xavier's potential success in the league are their biggest players. Jason Love has become an excellent center, providing a scoring threat in the post, grabbing rebounds, and blocking some shots. Alongside Love is the athletic Jamel McLean and 7 foot Kenny Frease, both of whom have developed quite nicely this season.
Xavier's biggest issue is their non-conference resume, as an overtime win over Cincinnati is their only notable accomplishment. But the Muskies are not done with their non-conference schedule, as they still have to travel to Florida.
Who's Dancing?: As has been the case in year's past, the biggest problem surrounding the A-10 getting four or five bids to the dance is that the top of their conference ends up beating up on one another. There are only so many games that can help boost a profile for these teams, and they can't all win them all ... because they are against each other. So while there are going to be five, maybe six, teams when it is all said and done that merit consideration, my bet is that three, maybe four, of those teams actually get in.
- Temple: 18-4, 6-1; RPI: 16; Kenpom: 32; SOS: 32; vs. RPI top-50: 4-3; vs. RPI top-100: 6-4; Best wins: Villanova, Siena, @ URI; Bad losses: none
Temple is all but a lock to get in. Their computer numbers are great, they have some good wins, they have no bad losses, and their schedule has been tough. The question is where they will get seeded. Temple plays three games against the other top six teams in the league. If they can go 8-1 or 7-2 down the stretch, winning the A-10, I think they have a shot at a top four seed. The A-10 is that strong. They might be able to move up another line if they can win the A-10 tournament as well. - Xavier: 15-6, 7-1; RPI: 21; Kenpom: 19; SOS: 10; vs. RPI top-50: 4-5; vs. RPI top-100: 5-6; Best wins: Cincinnati, Rhode Island; Bad losses: Marquette
Xavier is in the same boat as Temple. They should be all but a lock barring a collapse. This difference is that they don't have the non-conference resume that Temple as. Xavier didn't get a win against a Villanova. Xavier has a tough schedule the rest of the way, playing six of their final nine games on the road, including trips to Dayton, to Charlotte, and a non-conference game at Florida. X probably should win at least one of those three roads contests and clean up against the rest of their schedule if they want to feel safe. If Xavier can win the A-10 regular season, they are probably looking at around a five or six seed, which may get bumped up to a four seed if they can win the A-10 tournament as well. - Charlotte: 16-5, 6-1; RPI: 42; Kenpom: 79; SOS: 99; vs. RPI top-50: 3-5; vs. RPI top-100: 3-5; Best wins: Temple, @ Louisville, @ Richmond; Bad losses: By 42 to Duke, by 33 to Old Dominion, by 17 to Tennessee
Charlotte is in by far the worst shape of the three one-loss A-10 teams. They played eight games against teams with an RPI of 200 or worse (three against 300 or worse), and while they did play, and win, some games against good competition - beating Louisville on the road by 22 is impressive regardless of who was injured for the Cardinals - they also have to account for embarrassing losses to Duke and Old Dominion. Charlotte is probably in if the tournament started today, but they will want to win at least one, preferably two, of their four games against teams in the top six of the league (@ Dayton, Xavier, @ URI, Richmond). Of course, if they win the A-10, than they are going to be going to the dance. - Rhode Island: 17-3, 5-2; RPI: 12; Kenpom: 66; SOS: 45; vs. RPI top-50: 2-2; vs. RPI top-100: 6-3; Best wins: Oklahoma State, @ Dayton; Bad losses: @ VCU
Rhode Island definitely as the look of a team that belongs in the NCAA Tournament, and they have the computer profile as well. They have no losses outside of the top 100, and some of their wins have fallen out of the top 50 as teams like Northeastern, Boston College, and even VCU have lost a few games of late. Simply put, Rhody has done everything that they can with the schedule they had to earn themselves a bid to the dance, but they don't have much room for error. They have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, getting Richmond and Charlotte at home and heading to Temple. If they can take care of business against the Spiders and the 49ers, and avoid tripping up against a team like La Salle, the Rams should be ok. - Richmond: 16-6, 5-2; RPI: 38; Kenpom: 68; SOS: 67; vs. RPI top-50: 2-2; vs. RPI top-100: 4-5; Best wins: Missouri, Old Dominion, Florida; Bad losses: @ St. Louis
Richmond is in an interesting spot. They scheduled tough, and picked up some good wins, in the non-conference, but they could end up being hurt as some of their losses (William & Mary, South Carolina, VCU) begin to look worse as those teams struggle. The Spiders have a couple good non-conference wins, but have lost to Charlotte at home already and dropped an ugly one to St. Louis. The good news for Richmond is that they play each of the other five teams in the top six of the league one more time before the season is done. Richmond is going to earn or lose their bid in their last three games - at Xavier, Dayton, at Charlotte. - Dayton: 15-6, 4-3; RPI: 40; Kenpom: 50; SOS: 40; vs. RPI top-50: 2-5; vs. RPI top-100: 2-5; Best wins: Georgia Tech, Old Dominion; Bad losses: @ St. Joe's
Hard to believe that the preseason favorite is currently sitting in sixth place. As of today, Dayton is probably out of the tournament. They don't have enough quality wins, they have that ugly loss to St. Joe's, and they simply haven't played enough top tier competition. The Flyers are really going to have to do some work over their final nine games. They get Xavier and Charlotte at home, but they must travel to Richmond and Temple. I have a feeling that, at the end of the season, Dayton is going to need a good performance in the A-10 tournament in order to earn themselves a trip to the dance.
And here is the rest of it.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment