What we learned this week: There are just four unbeaten teams left in the country. Purdue, Kentucky, Texas, and Kansas have separated themselves as the hands-down favorites to earn the four #1 seeds come March after this week's games, but of the four, who is the best team in the country (all RPI numbers via):
Northwestern's bid for an NCAA Tournament berth could be in big trouble. The Wildcats have no wins over teams that look destined for the NCAA Tournament (three best are Notre Dame, NC State, and Iowa State) and have started the Big Ten 0-2 after losing to Illinois and Michigan State this week. It doesn't get any easier, either. Their next eight games - @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @ Ohio State, Illinois, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan State, Michigan. After Purdue and Michigan State, the Big Ten is wide open, but Northwestern could easily find themselves in too big of a hole to climb out.
After Texas beat both Michigan State and UNC in the span of four days, there was a lot of talk that the Longhorns - and not the Jayhawks - were the best team in the country. Anyone that saw Kansas absolutely dismantle a good Temple team in Philly may disagree with that sentiment. The thing that impressed me the most about Kansas on Saturday was how good they looked defensively (Kenpom rates them as the third best defensive team in the country). They pressure the ball well, and have one of the best erasers in the country cleaning up any mess. You should already know how good they are on the offensive end; neither of their two all-americans lead the team in scoring.
Texas may very well be the deepest team in the country, as Rick Barnes in comfortable using a 12 man rotation. The combination of Damion James and Dexter Pittman, when he can play extended minutes, is devastating inside, and doesn't get any easier when the Longhorns go to the bench (Gary Johnson, Alexis Wangmene, Clint Chapman). The issue for the Longhorns is their perimeter scoring. They rely heavily on their trio of freshman (J'Covan Brown, Avery Bradley, and Jordan Hamilton) who have all proven to be inconsistent scoring the ball. The key offensively for this team is Dogus Balbay, who is averaging 4.8 apg and just 1.6 t/o's. He is really the only guy capable of creating shots for others, and is also the best of a very good group of perimeter defenders. With the Longhorns struggling to beat Texas A&M-CC on Saturday, it is tough to put this team ahead of the Jayhawks.
By now you know about the Wildcats. John Wall is the most talented player in the country, and has proven he is willing, and more than capable, and making the important play for the Wildcats. Patrick Patterson is a stud, capable of scoring on the block and fast becoming the key to UK's ability to beat a zone with his ability to pass and shoot from the high post. DeMarcus Cousins is the most productive big man in the country, as he was the nation's leader in points and rebounds per 40 minutes heading into Saturday's tilt with Louisville. The Wildcats have far and away the highest ceiling of any team in the country. The question is whether or not they are mature enough to reach that ceiling. One thing that did impress in the Louisville game was Kentucky's effort on the defensive end. Louisville started the game just 1-19 from the field, and never got comfortable offensively. Kentucky has the athletes and the size to be great on this end of the floor when they want to be.
The Boilermakers are arguably the most fundamental defensive team in the country. Rarely out of position, they put great pressure on the ball, understand help side and positional defense, and contest seemingly every perimeter jumper. They have also gotten exceptional play out of their big three of Robbie Hummel, JaJuan Johnson, and E'Twaun Moore. While they have yet to quell concerns over their ability to handle big, strong presences in the post (they have by far the smallest front line of any of the four undefeateds), they did prove their mettle on the defensive glass. West Virginia hangs their hat on their ability to get to the offensive glass, and Purdue allowed the stronger, more athletic Mountaineers to get just seven offensive boards. I also still have concerns about Purdue's ability to handle pressure from smaller, quicker teams (like Alabama, who built a 16 point lead on Purdue), but Kelsey Barlow has been solid filling in for the injured Lewis Jackson.
Illinois, a top 25 team in the preseason, is now 9-5 with losses to Georgia and Utah (with all five losses coming on a neutral court). The Illini's biggest problem right now is inside. Neither Mike Davis or Mike Tisdale is all that physical, especially on the offensive end where both seem to be more comfortable taking 15 footers. Dominique Keller, who had 22 huge points off the bench, is stronger and may be the answer, but he is only 6'7" and gets most of his points off of hustle plays and (surprise!) jump shots. The Illini have a talented back court, but DJ Richardson and Brandon Paul are both freshman and Demetri McCamey is not a true point guard. There is talent on this roster, but Bruce Pearl has yet to figure out how to get the most out of it.
Marquette is the best 9-5 team in the country. All five of their losses are to power conference team by a combined 17 points, with three of the losses by one possession and four of them coming to teams that have been and around the top 25 all season. The Golden Eagles started Big East play in heart-breaking fashion, losing to West Virginia on a Da'Sean Butler buzzer-beater and to Villanova on a late and-one jumper from Scottie Reynolds. Many expected Marquette to be down this season after losing their backcourt to graduation, but Marquette is once again utilizing the mismatches created by playing small ball. Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler can both defend in the paint, but have the skills to play on the perimeter, creating mismatches against opposing big men when Marquette spreads the floor. Their biggest issue right now is depth. A couple of players have gone down with season ending injuries, and with Jeronne Maymon leaving school, Buzz Williams is left with essentially a six-man rotation.
The Big XII has a number of excellent teams this season, but the group no one is talking about is Baylor. After winning at Arkansas and South Carolina (to go along with a win over Xavier and a win at Arizona State), the Bears are now 11-1. Tweety Carter, who is playing great ball this season (16.6 ppg, 6.3 apg, 45% from three), and LaceDarius Dunn form one of the most underrated back courts in the country, and Ekpe Udoh (13.8 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, 4.1 bpg) anchors a frontline that is as long and athletic as any in the country.
GAMES OF THE WEEK: Gonzaga 85, Illinois 83 OT; Wake Forest 96, Xavier 92 2OT
Its rare to find games this sloppy that are this exciting. Gonzaga used a hot shooting start to jump out to a early 21 point lead on the Illini. But the Zags started turning the ball over, and Illinois capitalized, turning 21 Bulldog turnovers into 33 points as they came back and eventually took an eight point lead during the second half. The Zags weren't ready to quit, they pulled back ahead, taking the lead in the final minutes on the strength of Matt Bouldin's playmaking and a couple nice post moves from Elias Harris.
Illinois's Dominique Keller, who hadn't played more than 20 minutes on the season and made six threes all year out of the power forward spot, drilled two clutch jumpers, including a game-tying three in the final seconds, as the Illini forced overtime.
In the OT (OT can be seen here), Gonzaga's defense took over. The Illini didn't score in the final 3:07, and after Bouldin tied the game with a three at the 1:44 mark, Harris scored on a short jump hook with 12 seconds left for the win. Illinois would miss a tough three at the buzzer, sealing the game.
Sunday night in Winston-Salem was even crazier. In a game honoring Skip Prosser between the two teams he coached, Xavier and Wake Forest played an instant classic. Xavier rallied from an eight point deficit midway through the second half to take a 76-72 lead. Wake would score six straight points before Terrell Holloway scored with 58 seconds left to tie the game at 78. Neither team scored in the final minute, forcing an OT.
X pulled ahead in the first overtime for the first time as Jamal Mclean scored three straight points, but Ish Smith, who finished with 28 points and 9 assists tied the game with a three pointer. Chas McFarland saved the game with a great block as time expired. In the second overtime, Wake took control on a jumper from Smith, who followed that by finding CJ Harris for a lay-up. Jordan Crawford had 30 to lead Xavier, while Al-Farouq Aminu had 26 points and 18 boards for Wake.
They were good too:
PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Ashton Gibbs, Pitt
I had all but written Pitt off. They lost to Indiana, struggled to beat teams like New Hampshire and Duquesne, and looked as inept offensively as any Pitt team I have seen (which is saying a lot considering Pitt has hardly been an offensive powerhouse). But after going 2-0 this past week to start the Big East season, which included an 82-72 win over then-undefeated Syracuse, Pitt all of a sudden looks like a team that can make some noise in the Big East.
Ashton Gibbs carried Pitt to a 2-0 start in the Big East.
(photo credit: ESPN)
No one was an influential in the Panther's two wins as Ashton Gibbs. Gibbs averaged 23.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 3.0 apg for the week, but, more importantly, he had just two turnovers in 73 minutes and shot 9-13 from deep. Pitt got a boost with Jermaine Dixon getting healthy and Gilbert Brown getting eligible, but if they are going to be a factor in a very balanced, very deep Big East, Gibbs ability to score and consistently hit jumpers from the perimeter is going to be vital.
They were good too:
TEAM OF THE WEEK: Oregon Ducks
It is tough to give the Ducks the nod as they stole a game from Wazzu, but the results are the results, and Oregon came out of the first weekend of Pac-10 play with a 2-0 record, which includes a win at Washington, the best team in the conference.
When healthy, Michael Dunigan is as good as any big man in the Pac-10.
(photo credit: OregonLive)
Oregon did not have a pretty start to the season. They came into conference play with an 8-4 record, and three of those losses were to mid-major programs. But keep in mind that the Ducks were dealing with injuries to some of their best players early in the season. Michael Dunigan, who received a lot of hype in the preseason but struggled early and missed two games, had a double-double against both Wazzu and UW, and has scored 20 in his last three games. TaJuan Porter has missed four games, but went for 31 in the win in Pullman and as formed a dynamic, if a bit small, back court with Michael Armstead. The Ducks have a long way to go before they are confused with a tourney contender, but with the struggles in the Pac-10, this team may be able to sneak their way to the top.
MATCH-UPS OF THE WEEK
Monday, January 4, 2010
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