2008-2009 Record: 26-6, 15-3 Horizon (1st)
Key Losses: None.
Key Returners: Gordon Hayward (13.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 45% 3's), Matt Howard (14.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Shelvin Mack (11.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.5 apg), Willie Veasley (8.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg)
Newcomers: Andrew Smith, Chase Stigall, Emerson Kampen
Brad Stevens has quite a program in Indianapolis. The Bulldogs have reached the NCAA Tournament the past three seasons, making the Sweet Sixteen in 2007 under Todd Lickliter. They won 30 games in Stevens' first season at the helm before losing basically everyone, including Mike Green and AJ Graves. Not much was expected out of Butler last year, but on the strength of an excellent recruiting class, the Bulldogs won 26 games and their third consecutive regular season title. The best news? They bring everybody back.
Butler's recruiting class last season was anchored by Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack, who both made the U19 team over the summer. Hayward, who stands 6'8", ends up playing the power forward spot for a good number of minutes, but he is much more of a perimeter oriented player. Easily one of the best shooters in the country (he knocked down almost 45% of his threes), Hayward uses the threat of his jumper effectively to sell pump fakes. His biggest limitation as a prospect is his limited athletic profile, but he makes up for it with incredible smarts and craftiness. He knows how to get a defender off balance using jabs, fakes, and hesitations, and once he gets in the lane is satisfied with finding an open teammate instead of forcing a tough shot in the paint. Defensively is where the issue lies. Hayward, as I said, is a match-up nightmare on the offensive end because he plays the four, but his slight frame doesn't hold up against some of the bigger guys on the block.
Mack is as good of a point guard as you are going to find. He is strong with the ball, an excellent defender, and a very good rebounder for his size. He isn't the quickest guy when he puts the ball on the floor, but he is big and strong enough (6'3", 215 lb) that if he gets his shoulders by a defender, he is going to get to the rim. Butler is going to be very talented this season, which means that Mack, once again, won't have to carry the load offensively as much as he will be asked to run Stevens' system. But, as he did last year, Mack is a good enough scorer that if things start to get bogged down, he can carry the team.
Butler likes to lay a four-out, one-in offense, meaning the surround one post with four perimeter players. The other two guys that will be starting on the perimeter are sophomore Ronald Nored and senior Willie Veasley. Nored is a tenacious defender that will harass opposing point guards. He is quick and can get to the rim and out in transition, but he really struggles offensively otherwise, hitting just 23% from deep and 46% from the line. Willie Veasley, a 6'3" wing, is the perfect senior for this team. He does everything well on the court - he can shoot when open, he rebounds the ball, he defends. He turns the ball over a little more than one would like, but beyond that he is exactly what you look for out of a senior leader.
The "one-in" on this team may be the most valuable guy on this roster. Matt Howard, a 6'8" junior and reigning league player of the year, is a bit of a throw back big man. A land warrior, Howard does not have the overwhelming athleticism of many guys playing on the blocks these days. To compensate, he is excellent at gaining position, sealing his man, and finishing inside. He is a strong kid, and has developed a very nice back to the basket game. As the only real threat in the post, Howard is going to be so important to how far Butler can make it this year.
The Bulldogs don't have the deepest bench, but they do have some quality role players. Zach Hahn, a 6'1" junior, is the Bulldogs resident sharp shooter. 6'0" Shawn Vanzant is a scrappy point guard coming off the bench. Avery Jukes, a 6'8" senior, is the guy that will spell Howard inside. And don't be surprised when 6'11" freshman Andrew Smith, who has a nice game on the block and plays with a great deal of energy, sees some quality minutes this season.
Outlook: Butler has been very good for a while now, but this is probably their best team to date as Hayward, Howard, and Mack form one of the best inside-outside-wing combos in the country. Their biggest issue is going to be inside, where they are smaller than most power conference teams. Hayward will need to play big on the block if the Bulldogs have any hope of reaching a Final Four. That said, expect the mismatch that Howard creates to force teams to go small to match-up with them. An excellent defensive team that plays with a great deal of smart, Bulldog fans should expect another Horizon League title, and 30 wins and a deep tourney run is well within their reach.
1 comment:
Hayward almost never played the power forward spot last year. It seems counterintuitive, but 6-3 Veasley plays power forward in the starting lineup. He's strong around the basket and, despite his lack of height, his post defense is better.
Now that Hayward has gotten strong he'll see some time at the 4, but it still won't be a significant number of minutes.
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