2008-2009 Record: 30-8, 13-5 Big East (4th)
Key Losses: Dante Cunningham (16.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Dwayne Anderson (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Shane Clark (5.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg)
Key Returners: Scottie Reynolds (15.2 ppg, 3.4 apg), Corey Fisher (10.8 ppg, 2.8 apg), Corey Fisher (9.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 42% 3's)
Newcomers: Maalik Wayns, Mouphtaou Yarou, Isaiah Armwood, Dominic Cheek
Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright are both back after flirting with the NBA this summer.(photo credit: beliefnet)
Villanova did lose some talent during the off-season as Dante Cunningham, Shane Clark, and Dwayne Anderson all graduated. But when you consider the recruiting class that Jay Wright brings in and the amount that the three teams above Nova in the Big East last year lost, the Wildcats look primed to make a run at a Big East title.
As was the case during their last Big East title in 2006, Villanova will very much be a perimeter oriented team. It all starts with Scottie Reynolds. Reynolds had an excellent freshman season, as he averaged almost 15 ppg, which resulted in a lot of expectations being thrown his way. He never quite lived up to those expectations, however, although a lot of that is a result of the Villanova team as a whole improving quite a bit. When he was a freshman in '06-'07, Nova had just lost Allan Ray, Randy Foye, and Kyle Lowry, and desperately needed someone to step in and be a scorer on the perimeter. Reynolds filled that void.
Reynolds can score, there's no doubt about that. He is an above average shooter from deep, and can really be dangerous once he gets it going offensively. While he isn't the quickest or the most explosive guy in the country, he has a knack for keeping a defender off-balance and is creative when finishing in the lane. He uses his body well to absorb contact and create space, but he also has a dazzling array of floaters, pull-ups, fade-aways, turn-arounds, etc., that he can use off the dribble from about 8-10 feet.
Part of the reason that Reynolds' number have not exploded has been the addition of the two Coreys, Fisher and Stokes. Stokes is a big, strong two guard. He is not a great athlete, doesn't really put the ball on the floor well, and has an average floor game. What he does well is shoot. He is one of those guys that, when given an inch, will make you pay. And when he gets it going, watch out, because he has range out to about 25 feet. Fisher is one of the most underrated guards in the conference. He is a great complement to Reynolds. While Fisher is not the greatest shooter in the world, he is a quick, dynamic play maker at the lead guard spot. He can really break down a defense, creating looks for himself in the lane or drawing defenders and finding an open man.
As much as I want to say Fisher is going to have a breakout season, I don't think he will simply because Villanova's back court is going to be so good. In addition to the three guys mentioned, Villanova also returns Reggie Redding, who will join the team after a semester's suspension. Redding is a perfect glue guy for this team. He rebounds the ball, he can defend multiple positions, and he can create open looks for his teammates off the bounce.
Villanova also adds two freshman stars to the fray. Maalik Wayns is an athletic, 6'1" play maker. Not much of a shooter yet, Wayns has break-your-ankles handle and quickness, and will be very tough to keep out of the lane. His biggest issue right now is learning to harness his ability. He is always going full speed, which will result in some charges, turnovers, and tough shots early on. Wayns was also noted for his ability to pressure the ball defensively, which will earn him minutes with Wright. Dominic Cheek is the other freshman guard Villanova brings in. Cheek is a long, slender two-guard, standing 6'6" but weighing just 175 lb. He has the frame to develop into an excellent defender once he adds some strength, but right now he seems to be more of a threat offensively. He is solid at getting out and running the floor, but he biggest weapon offensively is his jumper, with range extending well beyond the three point line.
The place where Villanova is going to be hurting is inside as they lost their two leading rebounders in Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham. They do bring back Antonio Pena, who is a solid big man, but he is still the same Antonio Pena. He's big and strong, will play good positional defense, and will grab you some rebounds, but he isn't a scoring or a shot-blocking presence inside. That may be provided by freshman Mouphtaou Yarou. Mouph is a load on the block. Standing a muscular 6'9", 230 lb, Yarou is not the world's greatest athlete, but he more than makes up for it with hustle and desire. He has some decent post moves, especially using a drop-step, but this season he is going to get most of his offense off of dump-offs and offensive rebounds. Isaiah Armwood, another highly regarded freshman, is a 6'8" athletic specimen. He is of slender build and is quick enough to defend on the perimeter, which means that he may see some time on the perimeter this season. Where Armwood excels at this stage in his development is when he is allowed to let his natural ability take over - getting out and running a lane on the break or crashing the offensive glass.
Outlook: Villanova has great guard play. They have great leadership. They have enough inside to at least hold their own against some of the bigger front lines in this league while taking advantage of mismatches on the offensive end. What Villanova is missing this year, and what was so critical to their success last year, is the defensive toughness and versatility of Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark. Both of those guys could, legitimately, defend one through five. That ability is part of what made Villanova's switching man-to-man defense so devastating. Without them, the Wildcats are not going to be as good on the defensive end, which means that they are going to be relying more on their offense. The question is whether or not Reynolds and company will be up to the task. Personally, I think they will be, and expect Nova to win the Big East.
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