2008-2009 Record: 31-7, 15-3 Big Ten (1st)
Key Losses: Goran Suton, Travis Walton
Key Returners: Kalin Lucas (14.7 ppg, 4.6 apg), Raymar Morgan (10.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Durrell Summers (8.6 ppg), Delvon Roe (5.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg)
Newcomers: Garrick Sherman, Derrick Nix
Kalin Lucas will lead MSU as Sparty looks to make a return trip to the Final Four.(photo credit: MLive)
More than any other team in the top five, Michigan State lost some valuable pieces in the off-season. Leader and defensive stalwart Travis Walton graduated, as did versatile big man Goran Suton. But, if it is possible for a team that reached the title game while beating Kansas, Louisville, and UConn along the way, Michigan State was operating at a diminished capacity last season.
Delvon Roe and Raymar Morgan, who are the likely starters in the two forward spots, were both limited last season, Roe due to microfracture surgery on his knee the season before and Morgan because of a bout of walking pneumonia and a broken nose. Roe's knee injury really cost him last season. More than anything, it was due to how weak his knee was. He didn't have the explosiveness he had as a high schooler and he wasn't able to defend as well as he is expected of a Tom Izzo post player. But when healthy, Roe is dangerous. He is athletic, energetic, and really able to get up and down the floor. His post game is still developing, but Roe should add an extra dimension offensively for the Spartans with his mobility and ability to finish above the rim in traffic.
Morgan is a bit of a conundrum. He came into last season hyped as one of the best combo forwards in the country, but he was extremely inconsistent and unreliable as a result of his injuries and illnesses. When Morgan is at 100%, the guy is as strong and aggressive a player as you will see on the wing, to the point that he is essentially a perimeter oriented power forward. Morgan's weakness at this point in his career is his relative lack of ball handling skills and his poor jump shot. With his ability to slash to the basket and score inside, especially on the offensive glass, if he has improved his perimeter game, Morgan will be a terror offensively for Izzo.
Joining those two up front is a solid group in sophomore Draymond Green, junior Tom Herzog, and freshmen Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman. Green will probably see the most minutes, at least early on. At 6'6", 235 lb, Green isn't going to impress anyone with his offensive ability or his athleticism. But where he will be effective is on the defensive end and on the glass. He is a strong guy with a lot of determination in the paint. Herzog is a seven footer that saw very limited minutes last season, but expect him to get more consistent playing time this year as size off the bench with Idong Ibok's graduation. Nix and Sherman are similar players. Both are big, strong kids (Nix is 6'8", 280 lb, and Sherman is 6'10", 235 lb) and excellent on the glass. Sherman is probably a bit more polished offensively at this point, but given the talent on this roster, it won't be points that Izzo looks for out of these two - it will be toughness inside, defensively and on the glass.
As good as Michigan State's front court is, their back court is probably better. It will be headlined by reigning Big Ten player of the year Kalin Lucas. Lucas is as good of a point guard as you will find. Lucas is capable of playing on the ball or off of it. When he has the ball in his hands, he is able to break down a defender due to his crisp handle and an exceptional stop-and-go ability and quickness changing direction. He is good at finding the open man when he draws an extra defender as well. Perhaps his most dangerous weapon offensively is his jumper, which is good enough that a defender must respect it, making his ability to create all the more dangerous. As the Spartans will look to get out and run this year, Lucas will be counted upon to lead the break and orchestrate the Spartan offensive attack.
Joining Lucas on the perimeter will be a number of talented wings. Junior Durrell Summers is probably the best of the bunch. An exciting athlete, the 6'4" Summers developed an effective three point stroke during his sophomore season. Summers is going to be a terror running a lane on a fast break, but as he continues to expand his offensive arsenal, Summers may be primed for a break out season. Chris Allen and Korie Lucious will also see significant minutes this season. Allen entered East Lansing with a reputation as a big-time scorer and shooter, but has yet to really find a level of consistency playing at this level. Lucious averaged just 3.2 ppg in limited minutes as a freshman, but he showed flashes of being a good scorer. As minutes open up with Travis Walton's graduated, don't be surprised is Lucious turns into a consistent and effective scoring option.
Outlook: As you should be accustomed to by now, Michigan State will once again be the class of the Big Ten. While they do lose some key pieces from last year's team, the Spartans may be better than last year simply due to the natural development of some of their younger guys and playing this season at 100%. While the loss of Walton will hurt them - he was easily one of the most dominant perimeter defenders last year - it will provide increased minutes for more offensive-oriented guys like Chris Allen and Korie Lucious. The loss of Suton's size should be mitigated by the expected emergence of Delvon Roe and the addition of a couple big freshmen. Michigan State should be expected to run a little bit more this season than last, and if Morgan and Summers provide two legitimate scoring threats on the wings, another Big Ten title and Final Four trip should be expected.
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