2008-2009 Record:
Key Losses: Terrence Williams, Earl Clark
Key Returners: Jerry Smith (7.8 ppg, 41.2% 3's), Edgar Sosa (7.3 ppg, 2.4 apg), Samardo Samuels (11.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Terrence Jennings (4.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg)
Newcomers: Peyton Siva, Rakeem Buckles, Mike Marra, Richie Phares, Stephen Van Treese
With Terrence Williams and Earl Clark now in the NBA, sophomore Samardo Samuels is going to be counted on for much more production inside.(photo credit: Zimbio)
The Louisville Cardinals had a bit of a tumultuous off-season. They lost versatile talents Terrence Williams and Earl Clark to the NBA, Rick Pitino had his most embarrassing moment make national headlines all summer long, and two prospective starters (Jerry Smith and Terrence Jennings) face charges resulting from a fight in Indiana last weekend. But the fact of the matter is that this Louisville program is still stocked with young talent.
Let's start up front, where youth doesn't necessarily mean a lack of productivity. Of the six interior players expected to be in the rotation for the Ville, four are sophomores and two are freshmen. The best of the bunch, at least last season, was 6'9" Samardo Samuels. Samuels is a load on the block, tipping the scales at 260 lb. Samuels is not a very explosive player, but he is as technically sound as they come on the block. He has quick feet in the post and he really understands how to use his body and his strength to his advantage in the lane. Those nimble feet and ample strength also make Samuels an excellent defender and offensive rebounder. His defensive rebounding numbers were not anything too impressive, but a big reason for that was how well Terrence Williams could rebound; Samuels at times was only needed to box out the opposing center. Samuels tailed off a bit towards the end of last season, seeming to get worn out from the season and, simply put, because he struggled a bit against bigger players. Given an off-season to work his body into shape, I'd expect Samuels to have a big year as one of Louisville's top offensive options.
Joining him up front will likely be Terrence Jennings. Jennings showed quite a bit of promise as a freshman. Jennings is a perfect contrast to Samuels up front. His offensive skills need quite a bit of polish, but he is a strong 6'10" with impressive athleticism. He runs the floor well for someone his size, he seals hard in the paint, and if he touches the ball within five feet, he's getting a dunk. But that's about it for Jennings offensively. He has quite a bit of NBA potential, but until he develops an offensive game, he is going to be mostly a dunker and shot blocker, even at this level. But how will he handle playing alongside Samuels as opposed to backing him up?
Joining those two is a deep and talented pool of forwards. Sophomore Jared Swopshire looks to be the leader as the first big off the bench. Swopshire is less of a pure post than Samuels or Jennings, which is important for Pitino's 2-3 zone. If Samuels or Jennings struggles playing as a wing, Swopshire has the same kind of length and athleticism that a guy like Clark had. Another sophomore, George Goode, is a kid with a lot of potential, especially on the defensive end where he had an impressive 20 blocks in just 160 minutes last season. Perhaps the most important player in this front court will be Rakeem Buckles. With Clark and Williams out of the picture, Louisville loses quite a bit of versatility and playmaking ability. Buckles, a 6'8" combo forward known for his perimeter and face-up game, could be the guy that replaces that. Stephan Van Treese, a 6'9" freshman, is another big body that could provide minutes up front.
As we have become accustomed to, Louisville will begin the season with a back court of four interchangeable 6'2" guards. Leading the way will be two seniors - Jerry Smith and Edgar Sosa. Sosa is a bit on an enigma. After an impressive freshman season, Sosa has had a disappointing couple of years, including a junior season in which his minutes were cut and he was nearly asked to transfer by Pitino. Sosa has the talent - he can shoot, he can pass, he can defend - but it is his poor decision making and questionable effort that has made his become a question mark. Louisville is going to need him to step up and become a play maker to help replace what was lost with Williams and Clark.
Smith will most likely start alongside Sosa. Smith is one of those guys who has seemingly been in school forever. His best attribute is his perimeter shot, as he knocked down 41.2% of his attempts from deep. But Smith is also an excellent defender that has proven over the last three years he has no qualms with harassing opposing back courts for 94 feet. Preston Knowles, who had a bit of a breakout sophomore season, is exactly the same player. Knowles may actually be better than Smith, as he has garnered a reputation for being one of the best on-ball defenders in the Big East and proved last season he could be relied on for his perimeter shot, hitting 43.2% from deep.
The best of the bunch may be a freshman. Seattle native Peyton Siva was as sought after as any PG recruit in the country. He can basically do whatever it is you want from a point guard. He can break down a defender, he can lead the break, he works his tail off defensively, and he can rise up and dunk on a big man in the lane or hit a 23 footer off the dribble. What makes him so appealing to Pitino is his play making ability. Siva is going to create points - either for himself or by setting up teammates.
Outlook: Louisville's biggest problem next season is going to be replacing the offensive production that Earl Clark and Terrence Williams brought to the table. Williams played the role of point guard for the Cardinals last season, using his ability to drive and dish to create opportunities in the half court. With Williams, and to a lesser extent Clark, gone, filling that role will be key for Louisville. They have the shooters, they have guys in the paint that can finish, but will they have someone that can set those guys up? Will they have someone that can create their own shot? The Cardinals struggled to score at times last season, and lost their two best offensive players. Defensively, they should be just fine. With a four guard rotation still, they should have no problem pressuring the ball for 40 minutes. The only issue I see is that it may be a struggle for Samuels or Jennings to play a wing role in the 2-3 zone. This roster has the talent to make the dance and finish in the top five in the Big East, but will Pitino be able to get his players to move past all the off-season distractions?
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