Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Pre-season Player of the Year

ESPN currently has a poll up where you can rank the 15 favorites for national player of the year.

Player of the year is usually a tricky award to pick. Is it the best player in the country? The best player on the best team? The guý who had the best season? The most valuable player? (It is actually really easy when a kid takes home each superlative a la Blake Griffin last year).

Case in point: the Michael Beasley versus Tyler Hansbrough debate. Beasley was clearly the more talented kid and was projected by most to be a better NBA prospect. But Hansbrough won a lot of the player of the year awards because he played for a Final Four team surrounded by fellow future first rounders.

Things will probably change as the season progresses, but as of right now the player of the year voting looks to be wide open. Are there enough shots available on one team for guys like Patrick Patterson or John Wall to win? Will Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich split votes? Can Luke Harangody or Craig Brackins lead their teams to a good enough season to be considered? Will freshman Derrick Favors be good enough to compete for the award?

Follow the jump for my five pre-season favorites.

5. Patrick Patterson, Kentucky: 17.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.1 bpg

PP may very well be the post power forward in the country (which is saying a lot given the depth at that position). But he also plays on a team that is very talented and deep, especially in the front court.

Patrick Patterson
(photo credit: US Presswire)

John Wall, UK's freshman point guard, is talented enough to make a run at some postseason awards (he was the only freshman in Katz's top 15) while the rest of the Wildcat's front line (Daniel Orton, DeMarcus Cousins, and Perry Stevenson) is good enough to start, and possibly make an all-conference team, just about anywhere else in the country.

Patterson will, no doubt, be the centerpiece of the Wildcats offense, but will there be enough shots to go around? Perhaps the bigger question is how will he perform in Coach Cal's dribble-drive motion offense, an offense in which guards tend to thrive?


4. Cole Aldrich, Kansas: 14.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg

Aldrich was a beast in his breakout sophomore season. I'd argue he was the third most intimidating defensive presence in college basketball last year (behind Thabeet and Varnado), and was a much more dominant offensive force than either of those two.

Cole Aldrich
(photo credit: You Got Dunked On)

Already a monster on the glass, where Aldrich needs to improve is in his back to the basket game. While he did score almost 15 a game last year, a large majority of that came off of drop-offs, putbacks, free throws, and 15-17 foot jumpers. You rarely saw Aldrich use his outstanding length for a jump hook or turnaround J. If that post game develops this season, he should become college ball's most dominant big man on both ends.


3. Sherron Collins, Kansas: 18.9 ppg, 5.0 apg

Collins really proved his ability to carry a team last year. As basically the only returner (Aldrich played about 8 mpg as a freshman) from a national title team, Collins led the Baby Jayhawks to a Big XII crown and a Sweet 16 berth.

Sherron Collins
(photo credit: NY Post)

You can expect Collins to have another excellent season leading KU, and given the wealth of talent on the Jayhawks, a national title is within reach. But when you have (arguably) the best point guard and best center in the country on the pre-season #1 team in the country, it is feasible that the two players could split votes. Given that Collins put up better numbers and took (and made) so maný big shots last year, I'm giving him the nod over Aldrich.


Craig Brackins, Iowa State: 20.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg

Brackins surprised a lot of people back in April when he decided to return to school. After averaging almost a double-double for an undermanned Iowa State team.

Craig Brackins
(photo credit: Flickr)

Brackins is a match-up nightmare. He can face-up and either knock down a jumper or put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. But as a sophomore last season, Brackins showed an improved ability in the post, scoring with his back to the basket and showing much better toughness going to the glass. He doesn't have much help on his team, which can be a good and bad thing. While he may put up huge numbers, his efficiency stats will take a hit and his team won't get much national exposure.


1. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame: 23.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg

Yup, I'm going with Harangody as the pre-season favorite for player of the year. Why? Because the big fella is going to put up huge numbers this year for Notre Dame. Seriously, not only would it not surprise me if he went for 25 and 12 this year, but I expect him too.

Luke Harangody
(photo credit: Double the Post)

And 'Gody can play. He is fantastic on the block, where he uses his incredibly quick feet (the kid would win Dancing with the Stars hands down) and ability to seal and hold position to counteract his relative lack of height and athleticism. But he has also developed a solid face-up game and now is a threat out to the college three-point line. Given the progress he had made getting in shape for the Draft combine, I would expect him to be in Herculean condition come November.

But more than anything, the bottom line is that he has an actual chance at averaging 25 and 12 in the Big East. And while the Big East may be a bit watered down this year, that is still an amazing number.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

IMHO "Psyco T" won Player of the Year for more reasons than just because he was on a better team. There were some political reasons as well.