Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Basketball in Kentucky

The state of Kentucky is as much of a hot bed for basketball as anywhere in the country. Fans of the college game, be it of the Cardinal or Big Blue, are as die hard as any in the country. The University of Kentucky has as storied a basketball program as there is, and deals with more pressure to perform than any team, save maybe the New York Yankees. The University of Louisville is in the midst of a reemergence as a national power under the tutelage of former Wildcat coach Rick Pitino. But right now, Western Kentucky of the powerhouse Sun Belt conference looks to be the best team in the state. What is going on in the Bluegrass State?

Let's start with Louisville. The Cardinal returned all of there major contributors from last years Big East runner-up (12-4, 24-10), and were a trendy pick for the Final Four this year. So why have they gone 6-3 so far this year, with losses to Dayton, BYU, and Purdue? Long story short, there front line has been decimated by injuries and players missing time. Projected starters - Juan Palacios (torn knee cartiledge) and David Padgett (broken knee cap) - have both been out, and will still miss, significant amounts of time as a result of injuries. Derrick Caracter missed time as a result of continuing disciplinary problems. Reportedly, Pitino wanted to suspend Caracter (who wins the prize for most ironic last name) for Louisville's game against Dayton for violating team rules, but the team convinced their coach to let him play as long as he signed a contract, which included a curfew. He broke curfew the night he signed the contract, and was suspended for the Purdue game. Freshman George Goode (eligibility issues) and Clarence Holloway (open heart surgery) are also out for the season. Louisville has been left with senior Terrence Farley (who had a career highs of 3 points and 3 rebounds coming into the season), junior Terrence Williams, sophomore Earl Clark (both of whom are wings players/slashers more than big men), and Caracter to man the paint. Without Caracter on the floor, Louisville has no post presence. Against Purdue they were unable to get any penetration (because the Boilermakers were able to extend their defense out with the lack of an inside presence), which is what they survive on with playmakers like Williams, Clark, and Edgar Sosa. If Palacios and/or Padgett can return and provide a legitimate post threat, Louisville can contend for a Big East championship and a Final Four run. If not, if will be a long year at Freedom Hall.

Kentucky is in a much worse situation. They are starting with much less talent than Louisville, are trying to learn new coach Billy Gillespie's system, and also dealing with injuries. Sophomores Derrick Jasper (microfracture surgery on his left knee, most likely out for the year) and Jodie Meeks (stress fracture, finally returned Monday night vs. Houston) were both expected to be big time contributors. Don't get me wrong, the 'Cats have some very good ball players on their team. Joe Crawford, although he has not lived up to the expectations he had coming out of high school, is a very good scorer, Ramel Bradley is a better than average point guard, and Patrick Patterson is a beast inside. But Kentucky's role players are not very good. For example, Mark Coury, a 6'8" sophomore whose has started every game this year, is averaging only 3ppg and 3rpg, while reaching the foul just twice this season. No team can win in the SEC getting that little of production from someone in their starting frontcourt. Now, I personally think the biggest reason for the early season struggles of Kentucky is due to the coaching change. Let me explain. A star is going to be a star in any system. If a player is as good as Crawford or Patterson, they can be an above average player no matter who the coach is. So a coaching change (I know Patterson is a freshman, but he was most likely recruited by Tubby Smith) is not going to affect these guys as much. But depending on the style of play of a certain coach, they will look for different qualities in their role players. Billy Gillespie (if you look at his Texas A&M team from last season), puts together good defensive teams that win games by out toughing teams. Again I'm picking on Mark Coury, but can you really see a finesse guy like him beating up big men in the SEC like Joseph Jones or Antana Kavaliauskas did for the Aggies last year in the Big 12? I don't think so. Give Kentucky two years, let Gillespie get his recruits and his team into Lexington, and the Wildcats are right back in top 10 territory every year.

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